Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

wayneL said:

Yogi,

Tone down the personal insults mate.

Thanks

Click to expand...

Abuse-------you call that abuse!!!!!!!!!!

Haaaaa

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

yogi-in-oz said:

Sure glad Wavepicker asked for some firm dates and figures,
as there were some mistakes in the figures above.

All the dates are the same, but here's the corrected figures:

07 November 2006 ..... low = 10 May 06 + 180 days .....
and shooting for XJO at 4040 ..... nothing vague about that
Wavepicker.

As per post above, there's nothing vague about this either.

"After the anticipated lows around 07 November 2006, XJO
should give us a steady recovery in 2007 , with particularly
STRONG advances from 15-21 February 2007."

=====

On the way down to expected support at 4040, we will
be alert for intermediate support at:

4787 - 4489 - 4357 - 4040

Also on the way down, we will be also alert for significant
news/moves on these key dates:

24 August 2006

23 September 2006

07 November 2006 ..... low = 10 May 06 + 180 days.

17 November 2006 ..... double-bottom low


=====

So now, if the EW camp with be just as explicit about
their forecast for XJO, then we will all benefit.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... again ... XJO low 07 November 2006, at 4040.

( 7 November also marked lows, in 1978 and 1979 ..... )

Click to expand...

Ok Yogi,

I don't have a crystal ball so I cannot match the finesse of the target and date of the low you gave.
From an Elliott and my own cyclic analysis I am expecting the larger trend to be down between now and years end. My target is 4009 pts, but it would be pretty silly of me to say that the market will reverse at 4009 pts. Rather I can say that my analysis is showing a probable pivot zone of 4000-4100 pts. A close above 5195pts would hold the bullish case intact. From the 4000-4100 zone forward refer to post # 432 in this thread. You don't need to be perfect to trade the market successfully. As long as your methodology keeps you on the right side of the trend is what is important. My analysis is more adaptive to market movements. In other words I go with the flow, and take it move by move.


If you are using 180 day calendar counts to forecast future dates then I find these pretty inconsistant. Why? Because from what I have seen cycle periods both expand and contract as well as change amplitude in the market. There is no one fixed cycle that governs market movements, rather it is a combination of cycles. So it will be interesting to see if your projections work out OK. By the way, how do you apply your counts on charts that are less than 1 day ie 1 hr or 4 Hr charts?


Cheers

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis



Hi wavepicker,

"Do what works for you instead of condeming something you don't understand"

Maybe, it's because we really DO understand EXACTLY why
EW is so subjective, that we can very confidently say that
the so-called Fibo sequence has been in existence, since
Creation and it was known to to exist for more than 2000
years ..... Pythagoras being one who demonstrated such
knowledge, in his Harmony of the Spheres.

Fact is ..... if you learned some basic astronomy/astrology,
it would soon become apparent EXACTLY why EW fails at
expected markets turns, especially in individual stocks.

.....

"Every methodology can have something to offer. Personally
I use bits and pieces of many methodologies. If it works for
you it may not work for others and vice versa. "

No argument with that, in fact whether its Gann's astrostuff
(and whether your guru knows it or not - it DOES exist) or if
it's EW or simply regular TA ... NOBODY get's them right
EVERY time.

However, if we use our specialised tools, like astroanalysis
or EW, as CONFIRMATION of our regular TA, then our trading
signals are strengthened and by acting on THOSE signals,
our win/loss ratio should improve, significantly.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... eagerly awating some specific forward XJO dates
and prices from the EW camp, too .....

P.P.S ... Fibonacci was an impostor ... a bit like the mouth,
promoting himself as a trading guru, but cannot
pick a profitable stock, from one month to the next.



=====

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis



Ah yes,

Demand a standard from others, that you cannot meet
yourself .... next EW practioner, with some specific dates
and price levels please ....

..... who really cares, if you are wrong anyway???

-----

"By the way, how do you apply your counts on charts that are less than 1 day ie 1 hr or 4 Hr charts? "

That's easy ..... it called TIME and there's only 24 hours
or 1440 minutes in any day and on modern astrocharts,
we can see dynamic planetary moves on our charts, in
ONE SECOND increments, if necessary .....

In fact, it is quite easy to analyze each day (far in advance)
and project intraday market swing times for daytrading ...

Have a great weekend

yogi

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi Yogi,

"Fact is ..... if you learned some basic astronomy/astrology,
it would soon become apparent EXACTLY why EW fails at
expected markets turns, especially in individual stocks."

The devil is in the details. Fails for who? For you? As you say, Elliott Wave Analysis is subjective. But a lot of the the Gann stuff is even more subjective.
In fact I don't know of any TA sytem that is not subjective, unless it is 100% mechanical!! Elliott wave practioners like others who practice TA make mistakes, they also make stunning trades. making mistakes is part of the game, unless we are like you a GOD who knows every market move!!

I have been following your previous calls on other threads Yogi. There have been plenty of mistakes there, so please stop playing the guru. Always going back and explaining why the market didn't something on a specific date. No doubt there will be more errors.
You are the one claiming "precision time and price level " with your forecasting on this site, not me or others. All I have asked you to do is prove it. Well lets see if you can do it.

I have stuck my neck out before on ASF and given my opinion with charts etc on probable maket moves and I have been wrong on occasions too. Notice I said the word "probable" The system or service that does not make errors does exist.
I will post my opinion on the market again If I see anything significant. For now I have posted more than enough and it's basically a repeat from previous posts on other threads.

Bill McLaren who teaches Gann and in my opinion is one of the best. He says

"More money has been made teaching Gann than has been made trading Gann principles"


Goodnight and go and read some more "Tunnel Through The Air"

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

yogi-in-oz said:

Ah yes,

Demand a standard from others, that you cannot meet
yourself .... next EW practioner, with some specific dates
and price levels please ....

..... who really cares, if you are wrong anyway???

-----

"By the way, how do you apply your counts on charts that are less than 1 day ie 1 hr or 4 Hr charts? "

That's easy ..... it called TIME and there's only 24 hours
or 1440 minutes in any day and on modern astrocharts,
we can see dynamic planetary moves on our charts, in
ONE SECOND increments, if necessary .....

In fact, it is quite easy to analyze each day (far in advance)
and project intraday market swing times for daytrading ...

Have a great weekend

yogi

Click to expand...

If it was that easy Yogi, you would have made more money than Gann.

In “Trading for a living” Elders wrote;
“They claim that Gann was one of the best traders who ever lived, that he left a $50milion estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Ganns son, an analyst for Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses.”
When Gann died his estate was valued over $100.000.
Page 23.

I will let people make their own minds up about that one

Also with such profitable Gann techniques why on earth would you want to publish this book: Gann Signs?

Maybe Mclaren was right, their is more $$$ made in selling Gann books and courses than in actual trading huh?

good trading

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

wavepicker said:

In “Trading for a living” Elders wrote;
“They claim that Gann was one of the best traders who ever lived, that he left a $50milion estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Ganns son, an analyst for Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses.”
When Gann died his estate was valued over $100.000.
Page 23.

I will let people make their own minds up about that one

Also with such profitable Gann techniques why on earth would you want to publish this book: Gann Signs?

Maybe Mclaren was right, their is more $$$ made in selling Gann books and courses than in actual trading huh?

good trading

Click to expand...

Hi wavepicker,

You have never and will never see any posts from this end
claiming to be correct EVERY time, as it would be plain
LUNACY for anybody to make such a claim.


..... what you have repeated above is nothing new and it's
all just hearsay and we will probably NEVER know the TRUTH
about Gann's personal wealth (and it matters not).

What Gann did leave us was the foundation stones of many
trading tools, some technical, some astrostuff, that will be
developed further in the years to come and it is that legacy
that has served to make him a legend in trading circles,
despite anything that Elder may have written.

Suffice to say, if you were wealthy enough to own TWO
airplanes during that period, you were probably doing
something right with your trading.

-----

..... as for the rest, suffice to say Gann himself did not
keep his methods to himself, instead choosing to SELL
them for more than the equivalent of $50,000 in today's
currency.

So, in the spirit of sharing such knowledge around and not
"casting pearls to swine" (in both Tunnel and the Bible), a
price tag is the obvious way to sort out those dedicated
enough to study and APPLY such methods ..... no different
to the Tate, Radge, Guppy, Prechter, McLaren, Nison or any
other author, with something to say in print ..... yes???

happy days

yogi

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

yogi-in-oz said:

Suffice to say, if you were wealthy enough to own TWO
airplanes during that period, you were probably doing
something right with your trading.

-----

..... as for the rest, suffice to say Gann himself did not
keep his methods to himself, instead choosing to SELL
them for more than the equivalent of $50,000 in today's
currency.

Click to expand...

Hmmm, seems to be two oddly juxtaposed claims there.

My personal bias is that no entry/prediction methodology is of much use in building a successful trading business, so I am not specifically anti-Gann (or anti-anything for that matter), however, it strikes me that if I was able to successfully sell my methodology at $50,000 a pop it wouldn't be all that long before I'd be parking a Learjet or two in my driveway.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

tech/a said:

Based upon? your guess? Your analysis--if so please share.
Your past track record is where? I supplied my references----yours are?

Click to expand...

I, unlike you, realise the stock market is somewhat random.

I have no references and have never professed to have any.

I'm guessing mid October for the next downturn - but I admit it is random. And my opinion is nothing but a guess - much like yours will be if you present one.

If you know for a fact when the next downturn is exactly please enlighten us now?

Exactly my thoughts---then I took the time to investigate and UNDERSTAND the analysis.My veiw over many years has changed to Amazing,Uncanny,helpful.

Every now and then in life you find a gem---Radge is one of them.
Directly he has single handedly had by far the greatest impact on my trading.
Made me a lot of money----Following his wisdom and vast experience.
He's (I have found him to be) no nonsense,doesnt suffer fools easily, a true professional and HONEST.

Not to mention holding a Financial Investment licience granted by ASIC--a real one.

Click to expand...

Brown nosing... yawn.

You know there is a very old and wise saying which I reckon fits you to a tee.

"He with biggest mouth has smallest wallet".

Click to expand...

I suspect you are 30 years older than me. I know you live in Adelaide, the cheapest of Aus's cities. I suspect you are not that much wealthier than me now (4 houses in Adealide = 1 in my suburb) and each year I earn more than you.

I do not know though, and I do not care either. I do not make exceptional returns from the market and have never professed to. I work fulltime. And am happy averaging around 12% year on year for the rest of my life. And I have achieved far better than that recently. However I do not make losses, pay no tax, and tiny brokerage fees, and my returns including dividends are quite satisfactory.

Comparing your so called "success" with others is not only childish, futile, irrelevant and petty, but you are also comparing apples with pears.

Had we started with $10,000 each and "invested" for 40 years we'd have a fair comparison. But to compare and old man in Australia's cheapest city with a young man in Australias most expensive city is tantamount to lunacy.

You aint no Warren Buffett mate, you sound like a builder in Adelaide who punts on the markets - fair enough I have no problem with that. But please stop big noting yourself and trying to put down others.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hullo Realist,

And am happy averaging around 12% year on year for the rest of my life. And I have achieved far better than that recently. However I do not make losses, pay no tax, and tiny brokerage fees, and my returns including dividends are quite satisfactory.

Click to expand...

Tax is necessary - learn to live with it.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Brown nosing... yawn.

Click to expand...

Respect.

I suspect you are 30 years older than me.

Click to expand...

This now explains your posts,Your no different to any kid looking to express his individuality and veiws,My apologies you know no better.

I know you live in Adelaide, the cheapest of Aus's cities. I suspect you are not that much wealthier than me now (4 houses in Adealide = 1 in my suburb) and each year I earn more than you.

Click to expand...

Hmm also an expert in the Building Industry.Hobart is Australias cheapest city. 4 house could = 1 in comparison with some suburbs,Where is it that I have my holdings?
Using your own words--'But please stop big noting yourself and trying to put down others.'

I do not know though, and I do not care either. I do not make exceptional returns from the market and have never professed to. I work fulltime. And am happy averaging around 12% year on year for the rest of my life. And I have achieved far better than that recently. However I do not make losses, pay no tax, and tiny brokerage fees, and my returns including dividends are quite satisfactory.

Click to expand...

You dont make losses---Pure genius.
But dont make exceptional returns---strange?
Pay no tax---Strange if you work fulltime,youll pay PAYE tax at least.
Tiny Brokerage fees---Online brokerage excellent for small parcels.

Comparing your so called "success" with others is not only childish, futile, irrelevant and petty, but you are also comparing apples with pears

Had we started with $10,000 each and "invested" for 40 years we'd have a fair comparison. But to compare and old man in Australia's cheapest city with a young man in Australias most expensive city is tantamount to lunacy.

Click to expand...

Strange-----I cant see where I have done this it is you making a comparison.
When statements like "Ive never seen a rich technical analyst before" I present T/T as an example of one technical method that can be verified.It serves its purpose well.Those expousing such statements fail to produce any working fundamental methodology to support their arguement.

You aint no Warren Buffett mate, you sound like a builder in Adelaide who punts on the markets - fair enough I have no problem with that.

Click to expand...

Hahaha Yes I guess thats pretty right.

But please stop big noting yourself and trying to put down others.

Click to expand...

Pull your head in and realise that you actually dont know everything.

YOGI

..... as for the rest, suffice to say Gann himself did not
keep his methods to himself, instead choosing to SELL
them for more than the equivalent of $50,000 in today's
currency.

Click to expand...

Ganns writtings were found stored in boxes in his very modest home garage.
They were nearly thrown out but rescued by a friend.They had no structure and have been bastardised in interpretation over many years.

The only person who ever knew how to apply Gann Correctly was Gann himself. He never owned planes--they were new technology!!!!

Think about it if he was that successful he would be immortalised like Rockefeller's and the likes of Buffet in years to come.

Here is an extract which may throw an alternate light on GANN and support the arguement that THEN like NOW more is made from teaching the most COMPLEX analysis around than actually trading it.

W D Gann's only son John Gann is alleged to have said that Gann never did actually make the sum that was claimed and actually lived off the proceeds of the books and courses that he sold. It is on the record, however, that John Gann worked with his father but that they went separate ways, either because they did not agree on how to analyse the markets or because Gann, Jr. was unable to apply his father's astrological ideas, or simply did not approve of them. Gann, Jr. went on to become a successful broker and analyst and trader in his own right, so whatever the truth of their falling-out, the possibility of a simple father-and-son rivalry should not be ignored. Not only this, but John Gann seemed to change his tune:

"Foster indicated to us that Gann's son was not happy about his father. The elder Gann apparently was a task master and from other sources, a womanizer too. Gann's son told Foster, somewhat to this effect, 'Everything you need to know to make money in the markets are found in my father's books and writing.' Then there was a click. We now know that Gann's son died several years ago and his remote family is scattered throughout the country. What we also know was that Gann's son was a member of the New York Stock Exchange, trading for his own account. Now, concerning William D's estate. From sources I know to be relatively accurate, his Florida estate records showed an estate back at the time of his death in 1955 to be worth about $250,000. This was a nice piece of change back then, probably equivalent to maybe $4-$5 million today."

The relatively modest fortune he left behind is difficult to correlate to his reputation as a trader, but then again he may have disposed of or hidden his real fortune. This controversy has only heightened the myth and legend of Gann, leading several generations to pour over his books, courses and ephemera in search of clues as which techniques he actually employed. His prophetic novel Tunnel Thru The Air certainly contains many encoded messages, for Gann went on record to say as much, but whether even these messages revealed his true methods will probably never be known. A whole industry has sprung up, with many claiming to have "deciphered" or "figured out" Gann and a second layer of controversy now surrounds these claims. As it stands in 2006, it seems that the legend of Gann aids the sale of many books and courses but, if anyone has indeed got to the bottom of the Gann mystery and discovered his key to near-limitless riches, cynics say that they would be unlikely to sell their wares in public. Certainly Gann's charts look complex and alluring, but the student should remember that visual allure is quite independent from practical worth.

Click to expand...

Its simply a form of analysis.As is Elliot,Steidelmayer,Edwards and Magee.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

theres merit in both so i like to use both ta and fa

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

mit said:

Quote your friend Graham before his death in 1976 ....

"I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when Graham and Dodd was first published but the situation has changed ... [Today] I doubt whether such extensive efforts will generate sufficient superior selections to justify their cost"
from pg 198 A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel.

Click to expand...

Realist, I'm curious to hear a response to this comment, considering alot of your opinions on the financial markets come from graham's teachings.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

tech/a said:

YOGI

Ganns writtings were found stored in boxes in his very modest home garage.
They were nearly thrown out but rescued by a friend.They had no structure and have been bastardised in interpretation over many years.

The only person who ever knew how to apply Gann Correctly was Gann himself. He never owned planes--they were new technology!!!!


Here is an extract which may throw an alternate light on GANN and support the arguement that THEN like NOW more is made from teaching the most COMPLEX analysis around than actually trading it.

Its simply a form of analysis.As is Elliot,Steidelmayer,Edwards and Magee.

Click to expand...

tech/a opens his mouth to change feet, yet again.

It is quite obvious, that you know very little about Gann,
the man or his methods !~!

Nothing that you have posted about Gann is enlightening or
even original ..... and when you use quotes, please
acknowledge the source ... that's just common literary
courtesy.

As for the planes, just refer to the details below and then
we'll accept your apology anytime, <edited> !~!

Subject: Gann notes

Les Clemens, biographer wrote in an Trader's World Magazine (93) that in an article (May 26, 1933) it was reported that Gann left NY in the first 1933 model Stinson Reliant piloted by Flinor Smith a woman aviator, to tour the country analyzing crops and business conditions. "During his trip he was a speaker to members of Kiwanis, Rotary, Chamber of Commerce, and other organizations throughout US" "In 1935 Gann made an airplane trip to South America. He logged 18,000 mi by air and another 1000 by auto. July 1936 he bought an all metal plane "The Silver Star" and also used it for crop surveys. In 1939 he bought a new Fairchild plane and in 40's moved to Miami where he continued his advisory services, teaching and selling courses, & books." Les writes that "he liked
Lincolns and in 1954 he bought a fast express cruising boat The Coffee Bean." "His charts were in the thousands from 1900 to 1955 and spent 9 months in the British Museum researching stock and commodity prices."

Complete article by Les Clemens is in Summer 1993
magazine of Trader's World

...... and the attached pic is of Gann and his son John,
next to one of the planes !~!

-----

Gann's fascination for aircraft is quite evident in his
1927 novel Tunnel thru the Air, where one of the main
themes was the development of warplanes to defend
America and also included many details about Lindbergh's
flight across the Atlantic.

Even the cover of TTTTA, had 16 aircraft on the cover !~!

So, yet another statement by the self-annointed guru
has proven to be TOTALLY wrong ..... :

"He never owned planes--they were new technology!!!!"

..... what an egostistical goose !~!

tech/a, your lesson for today is ..... anytime you open your
mouth, be sure that you have done your homework, otherwise
somebody who HAS done the research, may show you up
for the fraud that you really are .....

Now, there's no point on wasting any more time on you ...

..... but, we know that your ego will demand that you have
the last say ..... you just can't help yourself .....

byeee

yogi

P.S. ..... anybody that produced a detailed market forecast
for 1929, in November 1928, with uncanny
accuracy, must have been doing something right !~!
(See Gann's 1929 forecast, attached )

..... and even better, in 1909 Gann actually forecast
the 1987 and 2006 crashes ... (see table attached.)

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Ive noticed that without exception Gann Fanatics have an in ability to converse.
They appear to suffer from sub intelligence,convinced that complexity must hold secrets to which they could/can only decifer.

Gotya on the plane stuff just love to rev you up!
Couple more ramps and you'll blow a fuse.

Buffet surely has planes,Elliot---hell I hope so.Seems to be a pre requisite.

Last word---You bet if I can rev you to red line thats EXACTLY what Ill do.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yogi

Please have your say, but please, no more name-calling. It's just not necessary.

Cheers

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hey Paul Yogi,

Go back and read "Tunnel Through Through The Air" again and keep on dreaming.

The following is what makes most people sick of studying and hearing about Gann:-

-there is no actual trading system, just a few esoteric myths
- Whether it's anyone who uses Gann principles or even Gann himself, you always are taunted with words to the effect of "I know something you don't hahaha" and in order to find out you are gonna have to pay big bucks and even then you have to read 100 of Ganns recommeded reading list in order to find those hidden cycles and true Gann secrets, and in addition:-

-You have to read the Bible to unlock the hidden codes
-You have to unlock the hidden secrets of the square Of 9
-You have to learn astrology
-You have to learn numerology
-you have to become a 3rd degree mason
-you have to be a womanizer

it goes on and on and on!!


All one has to do is a google search on Paul Yogi Nipperness and they will quickly find out that you yourself think you have become Gann!!

I mean you have written your own "Tunnel Through The Air" ebooks ala

Gann Signs

Which you sell astronomical prices just like Gann sold his courses.
After all, since you have won all these stock picking contests one would think you could at least generate an income without asking people to pay big $$$ to buy those high priced books that claim to have cracked the Gann secrets.

Now why don't you really come clean and give us an example of how you use your methodology on this site, just like Radge and others have done. Or does one have to buy those high priced ebooks and then do all the above to work it out?

As far as I have seen, Bill Mclaren is the only Gann Trader that has put together some sort of methodolgy that incorporates some of the Gann stuff which may be usefull, similar to what Magdoran has posted.

Cheers

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Wave hahahahahahahahaha

Is that right.Hahahahahaha

No wonder he hates the Duck HE wants to be head GURU.

Bugger off I"M HEAD GURU.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

yogi-in-oz said:

..... and even better, in 1909 Gann actually forecast
the 1987 and 2006 crashes ... (see table attached.)

Click to expand...

Err, no your own presented evidence doesn't show what you are claiming at all. The tables you have presented show;

Gann: 1984H Very high stock prices, etc
Gann: 1985J Major panic-CRASH!
Gann: 1989K Extreme low, strikes, despair, unemployment, etc

Actual: Oz: 1984: Continuation of bull market from 1982 - 1987
Actual: US: 1984: Bull market from 1980 - 1987
Actual: Oz: 1985: Bull market until October 1987
Actual: US: 1985: Bull market until October 1987
Actual: Oz: 1989: End of post crash bull market, not extreme lows at all
Actual: US: 1989: Back up to pre-crash levels

Gann: 2004J Major panic-CRASH!
Actual: Oz: Greatest bull market in history.
Actual: US: Flat Bear Market at around all time highs

That's 0 from 4. Not so good methinks.

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

MichaelD said:

Err, no your own presented evidence doesn't show what you are claiming at all. The tables you have presented show;

Gann: 1984H Very high stock prices, etc
Gann: 1985J Major panic-CRASH!
Gann: 1989K Extreme low, strikes, despair, unemployment, etc

Actual: Oz: 1984: Continuation of bull market from 1982 - 1987
Actual: US: 1984: Bull market from 1980 - 1987
Actual: Oz: 1985: Bull market until October 1987
Actual: US: 1985: Bull market until October 1987
Actual: Oz: 1989: End of post crash bull market, not extreme lows at all
Actual: US: 1989: Back up to pre-crash levels

Gann: 2004J Major panic-CRASH!
Actual: Oz: Greatest bull market in history.
Actual: US: Flat Bear Market at around all time highs

That's 0 from 4. Not so good methinks.

Click to expand...

Good one MichaelD,
You put it so sublety

Bob.