Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

swingstar · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

wayneL said:
Would love to! But it ain't worth it! You will spin whatever anyone says to satisfy your psychology, to convince yourself you are doing it the right way.

That is close to the definition of a troll I believe.

In the end it wouldn't alter my bottom line one iota, so it would be an exercize in futulity.

Arguing with a troll always is.

Realist · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

with what. You have already spent your 25% earlier

If I start with $100,000 and $75,000 is in shares. Then the sharemarket drops 33%.

I then have $75,000 with $50,000 in shares. I now have 1/3 of my money in cash.

If it then drops another 25% I have $25,000 in cash and $37,500 in shares.

I will never run out of money to buy shares obviously...

1. Past earnings is a poor predictor of future earnings. *
2. The reason that a share is cheap could be because of something you don't know about.
3. It may take years before the market recognises that you were right all the time about the company

1. I disagree. A company that has made a profit and paid dividends every year for the past 20 years is more likely to make a profit and pay dividends than one that has made losses and never paid dividends. Business is not random. People will shop in Westfield and drink VB in 10 years time.

2. Agreed, it is still cheap though so most probably the problem is factored in to the price already. And I doubt it is a problem that can not be fixed eventually.

3. It is possible it could take decades, and it is possible it may never happen. The likelihood is it will happen though. And if I buy a stock that consistently makes profits and pays good dividends and its share price does not ever go up (impossible?) I am still slightly ahead of inflation. No great loss - I have many other shares in my diversified portfolio that will be going up.

Realist · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

wayneL said:
Radge called it WELL BEFORE the high

Cheers

Nice, but the next high or low, what is it?

I bought BHP and RIO near their May/June low - I pretty much called the low - woop-de-do, it aint rocket science.

What does Radge think the next high or low is??

mit · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist said:
If I start with $100,000 and $75,000 is in shares. Then the sharemarket drops 33%.

I then have $75,000 with $50,000 in shares. I now have 1/3 of my money in cash.

If it then drops another 25% I have $25,000 in cash and $37,500 in shares.

I will never run out of money to buy shares obviously...

*Um* you said yourself that you might spend the $25 grand on shares and this could be at anytime. So it will disappear right or are you changing your mind again.

1. I disagree. A company that has made a profit and paid dividends every year for the past 20 years is more likely to make a profit and pay dividends than one that has made losses and never paid dividends. Business is not random. People will shop in Westfield and drink VB in 10 years time.

Disagree all you like but even Graham changed his mind about this and qualitative studies have shown you to be wrong.

2. Agreed, it is still cheap though so most probably the problem is factored in to the price already. And I doubt it is a problem that can not be fixed eventually.

3. It is possible it could take decades, and it is possible it may never happen. The likelihood is it will happen though. And if I buy a stock that consistently makes profits and pays good dividends and its share price does not ever go up (impossible?) I am still slightly ahead of inflation. No great loss - I have many other shares in my diversified portfolio that will be going up.

So some of your shares will go up and some may not for years and some will go bad -- which sounds like the whole index to me.

... and of course the rest of my message was ignored. Enough entertainment for one night time to stop feeding the troll.

MIT

BSD · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist said:
Business is not random. People will shop in Westfield and drink VB in 10 years time.

I dont agree. I cannot think of many things more random than business.

How many people smoke Rothmans or Camel now?

How much TAB or Creaming Soda do you see in the fridges?

I remember the afternoon paper had good distribution too.

wayneL said:
Don't necessarily agree they are gamblers, but they are certainly leaving there fate up to the market to decide

Agreed, Gambler is a harsh word for some.

To be more precise, by leaving one market/style to decide, they typically take more 'uncompensated risk' than a more diversified strategy.

Realist · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

This beats RADGE....

Realist said:
Re: What will the ASX All Ords be come year end?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll go

June 30 2006 : 5031
Dec 30 2006 : 5279
June 30 2010 : 6783
June 30 2100 : 1792031

I was pretty much exact, the close was 5034!

I didn't even look at any charts.

Realist · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

mit said:
*Um* you said yourself that you might spend the $25 grand on shares and this could be at anytime. So it will disappear right or are you changing your mind again.

FFS

$25K and 25% are different once the market has dropped 33%. $25K suddenly becomes 33%.

I would not just plummet all of my money into the market if it dropped 33% - I would buy more shares though. It is pretty simple!!

I earn money as well, my cash level grows monthly.

Realist · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

BSD said:
I dont agree. I cannot think of many things more random than business.

How many people smoke Rothmans or Camel now?

How much TAB or Creaming Soda do you see in the fridges?

I remember the afternoon paper had good distribution too.

Oh dear oh dear. You think business is random? That quite frankly is ridiculous.

People will drink Coke, shave with Gillette, shop at Westfield and get pissed on VB in 20 years time. I have no doubt about that whatsoever. You do??

These companies may get taken over or may change, Coke sells water, Procter and Gamble own Gilette, they will still be around in a similar form though. Maybe there will be Diet VB and Westfield carparks but no malls, but I have utmost confidence they'll all be around in one form or another in 20 years time.

I may be wrong with one or two, but again diversification will save me if so.

wayneL · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist said:
Nice, but the next high or low, what is it?

I bought BHP and RIO near their May/June low - I pretty much called the low - woop-de-do, it aint rocket science.

What does Radge think the next high or low is??

Ask him yourself! Like I said before, discussing anything with you is futile.

Ciao

mit · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

wayneL said:
Ask him yourself! Like I said before, discussing anything with you is futile.

Ciao

... though entertaining for awhile

MichaelD · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

An observation about stop losses;

Why don't technical traders apply them to anything other than the market?

Realist · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

though entertaining for a while

I do my best... :

Porper · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist said:
What does Radge think the next high or low is??

If you join the Chartist you will get Nick's analysis and teachings daily on many shares / markets etc. Best thing I ever did in my quest for knowledge.

I was like you Realist, thought fundamentals were the way, but there is definitely credibility in T.A.Most people disbelieve because they fear the learning process and think it is beyond them.It is actually enjoyable learning, and basically common sense.

That isn't to say that investors can't make money, far from it.

Sean K · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I've just skirted this thread and I have no idea what the hell is going on.

GO BOMBERS!!!!

Anyone in Melbs, please meet me at the Black Cat, Fitzroy. X!

I have a green baby alpaka jumpa on, and drinking red! I maybe unconscious!

swingstar · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

MichaelD said:
An observation about stop losses;

Why don't technical traders apply them to anything other than the market?

Hmm what else is there?

wayneL · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

MichaelD said:
An observation about stop losses;

Why don't technical traders apply them to anything other than the market?

They do.

Stop losses apply to:

relationships
cars
businesses
arguments
...almost anything

MichaelD · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

MichaelD said:
Why don't technical traders apply them to anything other than the market?

wayneL said:
They do.

Stop losses apply to:

...almost anything

Except forums methinks. (No finger pointing intended, just the observation that there seems to be quite an interesting psychological phenomenon on display here from those that DO actually know what they're talking about.)

Julia · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist said:
Please explain what you did differently Julia?

I know you sold WDC which has gone up nearly 10% in the past month and will pay large dividends next month.

How does your tax bill go seeing as though you sell and buy more often than investors?

What have you sold and since bought that has made you so much more profitable?

Everyone here seems to be arguing me and not arguing the point.

I have read a couple of books on trading, Darryl Guppy and Leon someone, I've tried and tried to comprehend it but I can not see past my views I agree, I am blinded by Ben Grahams theories I admit it. I am not hiding it at all, I am biased, but I am open to others views - I do not instantly dismiss them. I listen to them then usually dismiss them.

Those trading books themselves even admit 90% of traders lose.

Some of you need to admit you are blinded by trading theories and can't see the bigger "investing" picture as well.

And some of you are confused as to whether you are a trader, and fundamental investor or neither. There is no middle ground, either you believe in Fundamentals or you believe in charts or you are confused. You can not be half pregnant or half a Fundamental investor.

Why can there be no middle ground? You are obsessed with labels to no apparent purpose.

Re WDC: I have not sold it. I pointed out that for a stock which is widely considered to be part of a core fundamental portfolio it had wallowed about in sideways trading for the past year. It is currently at less than the SP 12 months ago. It has not risen "nearly 10% in the last month" as you suggest, rather about 5%".
What have I done differently? For a start, I've stopped hanging on to doggies which I bought on the basis that they were "undervalued" or "out of favour".
At the beginning of this year I did a complete re-evaluation of my portfolio and sold the dogs as referred to above. WDC, despite being highly recommended etc etc, is hanging in my portfolio for the dividend you mention. You continually refer to the problems of tax. The sale of the dogs provided me with the slight comfort of a capital loss which, combined with franking credits, brought me a very nice tax refund for that year.

I have little interest in whether anyone would classify me as a trader or an investor. Don't see how I can possibly be a trader with probably about 30 trades a year. Neither do I see how being an investor obliges me to hang on to stocks which are not making me money. Frankly, what the *** does it matter and why do I need to have a label attached?

Presently, having sent the doggies off to wherever losing stocks go, I anticipate relatively little change in my present portfolio, but for sure, if any of them show clear signs of altering their current direction, they will be gone.

Julia

Julia · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist

Quotation from MIT as follows:

It may take years before the market recognises that you were right all the time about the company .

This is my main objection to your rigid approach. While you are hanging on to this wonderful undervalued marvel, awaiting its recognition by the market and a conseqent rise in the SP, you could have had your money actually doing something more profitable than just passively accepting the dividends.

Julia

nelly · 7 July 2006

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Could someone please explain the term "sideways" to me....I'm getting a handle but the terminology is holding me back :1zhelp: ...[probably a stupid question, but what the heck]
Oh and I agree with the post "interesting psychological phenomenon occuring here"....and I ridicule my blister for watching the afternoon soaps......at least I'm learnin' sumthin'......and I'm not :drink: ing
Thanks... :dance:

Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

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