U.S. Presidential Election 2020

basilio · 2 November 2020

This is what rigged elections and voter intimidation looked like in the US in 1946.

‘Get the Hell Out of Here and Get Something to Shoot With’

The political machine in McMinn County, Tennessee, had spent Election Day intimidating voters, encouraging fraud and holding poll watchers at gunpoint. That’s when a group of World War II veterans decided to revolt.

‘Get the Hell Out of Here and Get Something to Shoot With’

The political machine in McMinn County, Tennessee, had spent Election Day intimidating voters, encouraging fraud and holding poll watchers at gunpoint. That’s when a group of World War II veterans decided to revolt.

www.politico.com

Battle of Athens (1946) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

PZ. · 2 November 2020

" If the state polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the required 270 Electoral College votes on November 3. The President would require a bigger polling miss than four years ago in order to win a second term. "

Biden maintains convincing lead over Trump in final election polls

If the polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the election.

www.smh.com.au

So for Trump to win from this point the polls would have to be really really......... really wrong

wayneL · 2 November 2020

PZ99 said:
" If the state polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the required 270 Electoral College votes on November 3. The President would require a bigger polling miss than four years ago in order to win a second term. "

Biden maintains convincing lead over Trump in final election polls

If the polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the election.

www.smh.com.au

So for Trump to win from this point the polls would have to be really really......... really wrong

It's gonna be very interesting from a pollster point of view.

Perhaps it is a function of the echo chamber that I inhabit (and a healthy dose of hope), but I am seeing far more support for Trump, and I am long past believing the mainstream narrative.

Ergo, cognizant of any possibility, I wouldn't be surprised at a surprising result.

IFocus · 2 November 2020

PZ99 said:
" If the state polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the required 270 Electoral College votes on November 3. The President would require a bigger polling miss than four years ago in order to win a second term. "

Biden maintains convincing lead over Trump in final election polls

If the polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the election.

www.smh.com.au

So for Trump to win from this point the polls would have to be really really......... really wrong

To be honest no one is completely writing Trump off yet, but as I understand it the polls have been more sophisticated this year looking more closely through age groups, education and wealth levels.

So far Trump loses, problem with the US no one knows who turns up to vote on the day all be it 2020 is looking like a record turn out certainly pre polling is which is possibly further bad news for Trump.

Off course Trump will declare he is the winner no matter what the out come is such is his poor character.

PZ. · 2 November 2020

Ironically, the obvious question about the polling is the impetus of it.

Is it designed to track opinion or drive it ?

Sadly... my tip for ASX*POPcorn was ruled invalid

sptrawler · 2 November 2020

PZ99 said:
Ironically, the obvious question about the polling is the impetus of it.

Is it designed to track opinion or drive it ?

I think that statement is spot on, but with the advent of social media, the normal media based polling is become dated and very age specific IMO.
I think the Australian and U.K elections clearly highlighted it, however there is no way the U.S can be compared to the U.K or Australia, IMO completely different cattle.

basilio · 2 November 2020

So Trumps way of "winning" the election is to claim victory the minute he is ahead on vote counting and then declare any votes received after that don't have to be counted. Bit like being a goal up at 3/4 time and having to face a 8 goal breeze in the last quarter of a footy match.

This story sums up how destructive this proposal is.

Fascinating opinion piece in the Washington Post by leading Republican election lawyer, Benjamin L Ginsberg.
Ginsberg writes that Trump’s last-minute attempt to challenge the ballots of individual voters unlikely to support him is as “un-American as it gets.”

These are painful words for me to write. I spent four decades in the Republican trenches, representing GOP presidential and congressional campaigns, working on Election Day operations, recounts, redistricting and other issues, including trying to lift the consent decree...

The truth is that over all those years Republicans found only isolated incidents of fraud. Proof of systematic fraud has become the Loch Ness Monster of the Republican Party. People have spent a lot of time looking for it, but it doesn’t exist.

As he confronts losing, Trump has devoted his campaign and the Republican Party to this myth of voter fraud. Absent being able to articulate a cogent plan for a second term or find an attack against Joe Biden that will stick, disenfranchising enough voters has become key to his reelection strategy.

Trump defends 'patriots' who surrounded Biden campaign bus – live updates

President in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida as Biden targets Pennsylvania

www.theguardian.com

spooly74 · 2 November 2020

Have the Dems done enough in early voting to counter this?
Seem to be on par with 2016 advantage % wise pre Election Day.
Massive landslide on the cards for Trump.

basilio · 2 November 2020

Vote for Trump = Fire Dr Fauci

Oliver Laughland

Guardian US southern bureau chief Oliver Laughland has just finished attending Trump’s final Sunday/Monday rally at an airport in Miami. He writes;

President Donald Trump has indicated he could fire America’s top infectious disease expert, Dr Anthony Fauci during a midnight rally in Miami, Florida, less than 48 hours before America’s critical presidential election.

As crowds at the Miami Opa-Locka airport chanted “Fire Fauci”, Trump stood for a number seconds and allowed the chants to continue before responding: “Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election. I appreciate the advice. I appreciate it.”

He continued: “Nah, he’s been wrong on a lot. He’s a nice man though. He’s been wrong on a lot.”

Fauci, one of the world’s foremost infectious diseases experts, has served for over three decades as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [NIAID]. He is one of the lead experts on Trump’s coronavirus taskforce, and has frequently offered frank public health guidance in contrast to the president’s repeated falsehoods on the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pay a visit to Oliver’s Twitter for some colorful rally footage:

US election 2020: Trump threatens to fire Fauci as Harris warns over nation's 'moral direction' – live

On election-eve Joe Biden will target Pennsylvania and Ohio, while the president visits four states

www.theguardian.com

sptrawler · 2 November 2020

Macquack said:
Who has spent billions discrediting Trump?

Well those that don't like Trump trying to relocate manufacturing back to the U.S of course.
A very interesting paragraph in this article, why the hell would manufacturers want manufacturing back in the U.S? That would lead to less profits.
And the answer is, spend more money on infrastructure and clean energy, so that people can get around easier and not make as many emissions, when they are unemployed. ?

Wall Street opens its wallets for Biden

Tired of Donald Trump's erratic performance and fearful about the state of US capitalism, Corporate America is getting behind Joe Biden.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:

Wall Street swinging behind Biden's tax hikes and big spending agenda may seem like turkeys voting for Thanksgiving. But they have been driven into his arms by the erratic Trump and growing worries that US capitalism is in crisis. Since huge corporate tax cuts boosted profits and shareholder returns in late 2017, businesses have soured on Trump.

"Wall Street is always looking for some sanity in terms of policy," says Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. "Wall Street doesn't like tariffs, Wall Street doesn't like trade disruptions.

Economic gaps in American society are widening and the middle class has suffered a substantial decline in recent decades, with its share of US income slumping from 62 per cent in 1970 to 43 per cent in 2018, according to the Pew Research Centre. Its share of wealth fell from 32 per cent in 1983 to 17 per cent with wages for low and middle earners barely growing since 2000.

So the rich get richer by relocating manufacturing overseas, making more profits and giving executives bigger salaries and the middle class suck it up as they move into unemployment?
Why would Wall street want to change that paradigm?
The only crazy part, is why the plebs can't see it.
Just my thoughts.

basilio · 2 November 2020

dutchie said:
TYPICAL BASILIO FAKE NEWS

It was actually a Biden staffer who tried to push Trump supporter off the highway.
Watch the video.

Indeed !! Amazing how alternative realities come to the for.
This video shows the Trump truck swerving into the left hand lane and sideswiping a Biden volunteer car.

'Trump Train' Truck Sideswipes Biden Volunteer's Car in Texas | Law & Crime

A caravan of President Donald Trump’s supporters in Texas were filmed harassing a Biden campaign bus en route to an event on Interstate 35 Friday, leading the campaign to cancel several rallies due to safety concerns. The altercation culminated with a Trump supporter in a pickup truck appearing...

lawandcrime.com

moXJO · 2 November 2020

basilio said:
This idea has been widely discussed previously. Apparently it has a lot more legs at the moment.
Let's see if this focuses voters minds on the importance of this election.

Trump plans to declare victory if he takes election night lead: Axios

President Trump has told those in his orbit he intends to prematurely declare victory on election night if early returns are favorable to him despite uncounted ballots that could lead to a loss, Axios reported Sunday.

The president has discussed the plan in detail with confidants, the publication reported.

On Tuesday night, the early count in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania is expected to favor the president because of state laws against counting mail-in ballots before Election Day. However, the ongoing count is expected to narrow the margin between Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who leads in most polling of the state.

Kathy Boockvar (D), who leads Pennsylvania's State Department, said the commonwealth expects the full count to take days because of the high volume of mail-in ballots this year, 10 times the number cast in 2016.

Trump plans to declare victory if he takes election night lead: Axios

President Trump has told those in his orbit he intends to prematurely declare victory on election night if early returns are favorable to him despite uncounted ballots that could lead to a loss,

thehill.com

Trump says he is preparing for legal challenges to vote counts as final sprint begins

President lines up 10 rallies in seven swing states over two days in effort to replicate shock election win in 2016

www.theguardian.com

This was already debunked I thought?

Knobby22 · 2 November 2020

The thing I would like to know is who is Melania going to vote for.

sptrawler · 2 November 2020

The stars are starting to re align for China.

China Is Getting Ready for a World Without Trump

By removing two key crutches for the yuan, the central bank is preparing for a less volatile world.

www.bloomberg.com

From the article:
Last quarter was the yuan’s best in more than a decade. Now Beijing needs to prevent the currency from strengthening too much, particularly with the increasing odds of a Joe Biden White House. Whatever position the Democratic candidate takes toward China, his policies are certain to be more predictable than President Donald Trump’s. That would be a good thing for the yuan. In fact, currency traders had preempted policy makers, piling into the yuan as the odds of a blue wave rose.

Over the past two years, China’s currency has been whipsawed by volatile geopolitics, while traditional valuation metrics, such as the current account surplus and interest rate differentials, went to the back burner. Now that Trump appears to be on his way out, and China’s economy is growing again — with parts of Europe and the U.S. resuming lockdowns — the yuan’s outlook is rosy.

Looking across emerging markets, one can’t stress enough how important a stable currency is for foreign investors. Of course, China is pleased that a Biden win would unwind some of the damage Trump has done to its currency, but it doesn’t want the yuan to go on a fast track, either. China is merely getting ready for a world without Trump.

moXJO · 3 November 2020

sptrawler said:
The stars are starting to re align for China.

China Is Getting Ready for a World Without Trump

By removing two key crutches for the yuan, the central bank is preparing for a less volatile world.

www.bloomberg.com

From the article:
Last quarter was the yuan’s best in more than a decade. Now Beijing needs to prevent the currency from strengthening too much, particularly with the increasing odds of a Joe Biden White House. Whatever position the Democratic candidate takes toward China, his policies are certain to be more predictable than President Donald Trump’s. That would be a good thing for the yuan. In fact, currency traders had preempted policy makers, piling into the yuan as the odds of a blue wave rose.

Over the past two years, China’s currency has been whipsawed by volatile geopolitics, while traditional valuation metrics, such as the current account surplus and interest rate differentials, went to the back burner. Now that Trump appears to be on his way out, and China’s economy is growing again — with parts of Europe and the U.S. resuming lockdowns — the yuan’s outlook is rosy.

Looking across emerging markets, one can’t stress enough how important a stable currency is for foreign investors. Of course, China is pleased that a Biden win would unwind some of the damage Trump has done to its currency, but it doesn’t want the yuan to go on a fast track, either. China is merely getting ready for a world without Trump.

Im expecting China to make further pushes into land grabs once Biden is president. Get ready for war imo.

wayneL · 3 November 2020

Still conflicting messages

wayneL · 3 November 2020

...and a different survey again. Curiouser and curiouser.

PZ. · 3 November 2020

@wayneL Whoever tweeted that first poll said "They released this on Saturday"

They actually released it in March (that's their moody) which was 5 months before Biden was even nominated.

The other poll is based from 2018 (adjusted) results so they're doing a bit of good ole cherry picking there

basilio · 3 November 2020

PZ99 said:
@wayneL Whoever tweeted that first poll said "They released this on Saturday"

They actually released it in March (that's their moody) which was 5 months before Biden was even nominated.

The other poll is based from 2018 (adjusted) results so they're doing a bit of good ole cherry picking there

That is sad on a few points

1) It seems the only way to encourage Trump voters they have a chance to win is posting 7 month old polls
2) Many Trump supporters can't/won't check what they are told and still produce these polls as evidence of current support.

basilio · 3 November 2020

Excellent description of the processes around checking and counting early votes in the election.

More than 97 million Americans have already voted. How will this affect the result?

You've been hearing more than normal about mail-in ballots this US election campaign. What happens to them once they are posted?

www.abc.net.au

U.S. Presidential Election 2020

Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Kanye West

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VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

You are arguing with a Galah

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menace to society

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

menace to society

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VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

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