Trading Crypto with a dart

[Dona Ferentes]

here's a new fanciful spin

from Jared Dillian

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You can’t make this stuff up:​

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Source: Brent Donnelly​

So get this: Bullish (BLSH) goes public on August 13. A company literally named Bullish. It was touted as the shiny new thing in crypto trading, a “next-gen exchange” backed by big names and big money—it raised about $1.1 billion in an initial public offering (IPO). The stock opened at $90 on the NYSE, 143% above its IPO price of $37. At one point, it climbed as high as $118 before closing at $68, and by day’s end, it had a market value of more than $10 billion. Well, guess what? The Bullish IPO was the top. Pretty much the ding-dong high for everything. The Nasdaq, ETH, and risk assets across the board all peaked basically to the hour of BLSH hitting the tape. It’s like the market saw the ticker symbol, laughed, and said: Nope. We’re done here. Now the stock is sliding (sub-$60 as I write), the index is sliding, and the whole thing looks like a parody of late-cycle excess. We are, in fact, on the stupidest timeline, as Brent Donnelly put it.​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Cryptocurrency IPOs

“I think that the market was closed to many crypto companies, and they had no ability to get out while we were under the regulatory environment that we were in. So I definitely think many companies see the window open and are racing to run through that open window for fear that that window may not be open for long.”
- Alesia Haas, CFO, Coinbase Global Inc​

 

[StockyGuy]

Starting to wish I'd put my long term crypto punt on Ethereum, instead of Bitcoin But I also don't back myself enough to redeploy said capital. Fortunately my stake is moderate anyway. I think many of us are coming to the position that a diversified portfolio requires some crypto exposure. Doesn't I mean "believe" in it. But I understand it's proven itself a credible currency with the Russian troubles - they use it often by necessity due to the sanctions making standard ways of transacting internationally tough.

 

[Sharkman]

Starting to wish I'd put my long term crypto punt on Ethereum, instead of Bitcoin

Why not just hold both? Unlike traditional investments there's usually no minimum brokerage at CeFi exchanges, it's just a straight %, and almost every crypto has enough decimal points that you can get the exact exposure you want.

I went with a target allocation of 50% BTC/25% ETH/15% SOL/10% various high beta sh#tcoins, at most 1% of net worth across all crypto in terms of how much fiat was used to buy it, but letting it creep above that if price appreciation occurs (it's at 1.4% now).

Personally I think Solana will overtake Ethereum at some point, their network has much higher TPS, much lower transaction fees and they seem to have fixed the stability issues that used to plague them quite frequently 2-3 years ago. But I went with the ratio I have because I know I could easily be wrong, and I can't deny that Ethereum has the first mover advantages of higher market penetration & market cap, and a more mature fully fleshed out ecosystem (dApps etc).

 

[StockyGuy]

Why not just hold both? Unlike traditional investments there's usually no minimum brokerage at CeFi exchanges, it's just a straight %, and almost every crypto has enough decimal points that you can get the exact exposure you want.

I went with a target allocation of 50% BTC/25% ETH/15% SOL/10% various high beta sh#tcoins, at most 1% of net worth across all crypto in terms of how much fiat was used to buy it, but letting it creep above that if price appreciation occurs (it's at 1.4% now).

Personally I think Solana will overtake Ethereum at some point, their network has much higher TPS, much lower transaction fees and they seem to have fixed the stability issues that used to plague them quite frequently 2-3 years ago. But I went with the ratio I have because I know I could easily be wrong, and I can't deny that Ethereum has the first mover advantages of higher market penetration & market cap, and a more mature fully fleshed out ecosystem (dApps etc).

I do think about that; but I use a leveraged ETF, not the real deal. My enemy has always been overtrading so I try to "stand in my truth" more now, as it were; but never devote too much of the portfolio to any one thing. That's generally not so risky for me as I mostly shun individual stocks and use ETFs.