Re: tips & guidance for a young investor
g'day guys, first time poster here!
Been reading around the forums for a while now and slowing coming to the opinion that its time to invest!
ive concluded im after a medium to long term investment (say 5-8 years), hopefully enough to get an apartment deposit organised (50k approx).
as a 19 y/o, im currently studying a full time commerce degree, working part time, and pissing up what i manage to save on the weekends! ive managed to pool together 5k to invest and will consider monthly re-investments of income (approx 350 p/w).
So essentially im asking for advice on where to start! whether i just dive in and grab a few bluechips, or jump on board a managed account (heavy fees??). I am open to higher levels of risk, as i understand now is the time to risk, youth is on my side!
i know this question has been asked a million times, but i feel its just time to do something with my money rather than another trip to bali haha
cheers all!
jig
Roughly speaking, if you are saving for a five year horizon, you are going to need about 28% pa after tax and expenses. If for eight years, it falls to 8% per annum. The five to eight year horizon is regarded as medium term. Twenty eight percent per annum is possible but unlikely. Whereas 8% per annum is achievable with a mix of equity, credit, bonds and cash. The more equity, the higher your expected outcome, but the increased chance of toasting your savings.
One thing to consider is that, as you approach your deposit threshold, your actual value at risk is constantly rising as you put more money into the market. A fall in the market in year one is nothing like the same fall in the market as you move into the $50k region. This is called sequencing risk. It led to a bunch of retirees not actually retiring as the GFC took hold. The idea is to de-risk as you are moving in to your target assets or time horizon.
Growing to $50k from $5k is not a lot of assets. You are working already whilst studying and going to get a job at some stage - and busting a gut as a rookie trying to get started. It's not really worth your time trying to squeeze out a few extra percent - unless you just like doing it.
ETFs have now displaced actively managed retail funds with high loads. You might want to look at those and, given you have a commerce background and would probably have been exposed to finance, take a look at the mix and risk potential and figure out what makes sense to you. Stuff from Markowitz/CAPM theory will do for the purpose of risk assessment over this kind of timeframe. You can calculate risk for yourself from historical returns that you can dump from some place. Don't optimise for an outcome. That's just going to give you junk. Just check out a few scenarios and see what fits for your preferences in terms of a rough trade off between risk and reward.
If you are working, you probably have your super contributions directed to some industry fund. Check the website out for expected returns in the Investment Policies or Annual Reports. In particular, take a look at the various pre-mixed options for their expected returns and standard risk measures (number of expected negative years in 20). This will serve as a cross-check for your calculations and provide you with an idea of an asset class mix that might be right for you. Recall, though, this is happening at superannuation tax rates (although the risk statements are made on a before tax basis for some reason).
Remember to allow for tax and expenses in your simulations.
All the best with it.