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Tip Sheets - Experiences

Discussion in 'Trading/Investing Resources' started by RichKid, Aug 12, 2004.

  1. Julia

    Julia In Memoriam

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    From time to time there are questions about the usefulness of the various stock recommendation publications.
    The "Intelligent Investor" has just published its lists of good and bad.

    "Hanging our Heads in Shame" Date Price Then Price Now

    Millers Retail Strong Buy Sep2002 $2.05 $1.585
    Aristocrat Leisure Sell June 04 $4.75 $13.60
    Brambles Sell June 04 $6.04 $10.42
    Sonic Healthcare Sell Mar 02 $6.20 $13.99
    S ons of Gwalia Buy Aug 01 $7.75 -
    Ion Hold Sep 04 $1.22 -
    Croesus Mining Spec Buy Mar 05 $ 0.46 $<0.275
    Mayne Group Sell June 04 $3.18 $6.08
    Adsteam Marine Buy June 98 $2.42 $1.87
    Strathfield Buy Jul 02 $0.34 $0.035


    There's also a list of what they got right if anyone is interested.

    Julia
     
  2. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    I signed up to this for free out of curiosity.

    Ben Graham would be turning in his grave. :swear:

    They recommend some companies that have not even made a profit, ROC for instance.

    And in the last issue they slagged off CMI which does make a profit and could be liquidated for more than you bought it for.

    There is no way their tips are based on Ben Grahams fundamentals. Infact they do what Graham (and I hopefully) profit from. :rolleyes:

    Graham recommends a large, well known, well run company that makes a profit year after year, has a low PER compared to the last 5 years earnings and a low P/B ratio. Regardless of future propspects or what analysts think. he does not predict, he protects buy buying cheap.

    Or a company that is selling for less than its NTA less debts. For obvious reasons.

    He would never recommend an IPO, a company that does not make a profit, or a company that is expensive compared to NTA unless it is purely for a small speculative gamble that you are more than willing to lose, hey gambling can be fun. A company that has excellent future prospects and the analysts love is going to be overpriced accordingly so he would not buy it.

    The Intelligent Investor Magazine is a misrepresentation of it's name!!
     
  3. Milk Man

    Milk Man

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Hahahahaha; theyre crap but at least they know it huh?
     
  4. bvbfan

    bvbfan

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Funny how they could possibly pick the two worst gold stocks in a gold bull market.

    Takes some effort!
     
  5. Prospector

    Prospector Not a scaredy cat anymore

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    I am another unhappy camper for Intelligent Investor. I was recommended this subscription perhaps four years ago by someone who felt they were very good. So I continued with MRL for some time because they just kept giving them a stong buy so I thought, as I was green to this game, they must see something that I couldnt. Eventually I sold at quite a loss.

    As this peron who recommended them had used their recommendations for some time and had done well, I am wondering if perhaps 3 years ago their staff changed?
     
  6. Milk Man

    Milk Man

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Maybe theyre being run by a brokerage firm now huh? ;)
     
  7. Sensei

    Sensei

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Has anyone trialled ....

    Meridian Stock Report (www.meridianline.com.au)
    or
    Stockwatch Report (www.swreport.com) ?

    I am not recommending either just wonder if anyone has any feedback on them. Meridian also put out a sheet on the SPI and am particularly interestd if anyone has any comments. I did trial that but the 3 day trial did not give me adequate time to gauge its performance.
     
  8. coyotte

    coyotte

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    I have been subscribing to this US service for several years now ($us120 pa)

    Although not a stock tipping sheet the writer Steve Saville gives a clearer understanding of how and why markets work as they do

    Gives out out a weekly, 3mth & long view of various markets, mainly US, US$, Gold and Commodities, with the reasoning behind the forecast --- can be very enlightening at times ---- generally not too far off the mark with their general forecasts --- they did get POG totally wrong on its late 05/06 move.
    There is a 30day free trial available.

    http://www.speculative-investor.com

    Cheers
    Coyotte
     
  9. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Personally I think many of those who purchase tip sheets have unrealistic expectations.

    They EXPECT a buy to be a buy a hold to be a hold and a sell to be a sell over a timeframe un defined.

    All you have is an opinion.
    How YOU handle the TRADING of that opinion could have a massive impact on your bottomline.

    To sit back in judgement after X period and say they got that wrong and they are crap is demonstrating to me how people wont take RESPONSIBILITY for THEIR trading.

    Julia.
    I would like that list of winners.
    Trick is for YOU to know WHEN to hold,sell or buy.
    THEN,position size maximise and trade positive expectancy,buy quitting losers and riding winners.

    What do you expect if you just buy and hold recommendations?????
    Every one will be a winner!!!

    You have to LEARN to TRADE or at worst learn to INVEST
     
  10. Julia

    Julia In Memoriam

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Tech

    Intelligent Investor's winners herewith.

    Macquarie Bank, Strong Buy, Oct 02 , $20.39, $63.35
    Great Southern Plant. Buy, Feb 03, $0.64 $3.76
    Cochlear Buy Mar 04, $19.04 $53.36
    Computershare Buy Jul 02 $2.08 $8.11
    Leighton Holdings Buy May 04 $7.83 $17.05
    Roc Oil Buy June 03 $1.13 $3.64
    Macquarie Airports Buy May 03 $1.17 $2.96
    Aristocrat Leisure Buy Jun 03 $1.15 $13.06
    Securenet Buy Apr 02 $0.86 $1.57
    AMP Sell Mar 02 $19.12 $9.05


    Julia
     
  11. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    That Intelligent investor winners list is pretty piss weak. :cool:
     
  12. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Some people are never satisfied and join the "Packs" common opinion.

    Frankly one 300% winner is pretty impressive.Let alone 7

    See the trick is having these in your portfolio for as long as you can.

    Techtrader's had less than 7/300% winners in its portfolio for the same period and had satisfactory returns of over 300%.
    People have to take responsibility for their own usage of information.
     
  13. Milk Man

    Milk Man

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Tech, yes those are pretty impressive winners. Their losers were also pretty scary to say the least. What was in the middle might be good to know. There are big numbers there none-the-less. We should take a look at the charts and see if there isnt a system to be had eh?
     
  14. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    So when one initially bought into one of these "potential" winners through a buy recommendation,would it not have been wise to have a price point where you would say,this is not performing in the positive way I was expecting,so I will get out and buy into one that has that potential again??
    OR
    Learn some technical points to be in a position to place a technical stop??

    I was eluding to that back on page one and there was no interest so stopped posting on the thread until it was revived.
    Doesnt need to be a system as such but some well placed trading rules wouldnt go astray.Would at least give you a CHANCE to profit.
    With 300% winners you dont have to be correct all that often to be profitable.
     
  15. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    ie a point where we know we are wrong, as Nick likes to say, so what's the criteria? With EW or TA we know when a stock has failed to follow a pattern but with fundamentals it'll probably have to be an arbitary percentage. 8%? 10% stops? Do past winners of this magnitude guarantee future results of similar winners? How many of those 3 baggers actually went below such an arbitary stop point? Ie how do we capture enough of the big ones while cutting out the 'poor' ones? I'm thinking in the context of this particular tipsheet. The more stats the better to work with, one year's report isn't much to go on. I'd say using Martin Roths' Top Stocks would be better as we have a long history (so more data/samples to test).
     
  16. Nick Radge

    Nick Radge

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    Re: Tip Sheets- Experiences

    Intelligent Investor actually sent me a freebie the other day that listed all these trades that are being mentioned. If you read carefully they do actually say that "we may have been psychologically attached" to some of their recommendations and as such were unable to push the exit button even though the red flag was being waved.

    The MRL trade was a case in point. The initial recommendation was a buy at circa $3.40. They then did a major special report at approx. $2.70 stating that it was an absolute gimme and that they rarely did these special reports. As the stock declines through $2.00 they moved from Strong Buy to Buy (whatever that means). They only ever went to hold when the stock declined through $1.40. The stock eventually went to $0.70. They claim a victory now for getting out above those lows.

    As I say, "Its not a problem being wrong. Its staying wrong that does the damage."

    If I can offer anything to new traders/investors;

    If its that obvious, you've missed it.
     
  17. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

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    :eek:

    But they have had 200 issues over 8 years!!!

    If they recommended just one buy each issue they'd have recommended 200 stocks. They've probably recommended over 500 stocks!

    They should have a hell of alot more real winners than they do!! 7 out of 500! :cautious:

    As for keeping them for a longtime, yes of course!! it is investing, 1 year is the barest of bare minimums to reduce tax and brokerage and collect some dividends when investing. 10 years should be your aim with each stock you buy. You'll double your money from dividend reinvestment alone.

    If I just recommended you buy the whole ASX 200 now and not sell any and we looked at how smart that was 8 years down the track you'd realise just how piss poor the Intelligent Investors results were.

    A random name generator would get more than seven 300% wins if you let it go over the ASX 500 times over 8 years and never sold them. :eek:
     
  18. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Rich.

    You'd have a watchlist,re entry maybe an option.

    Realist
    You'd not buy all buys as chances are you wouldnt have enough capital.

    I dont get the sheet so cant comment on quantities,it just seems that most appear to just accept as gospel the recommendations and judge their performance on their failures.I'm sure any trading methodology can be improved.

    Nick
    So you wouldnt recommend buying high and selling higher?
     
  19. Nick Radge

    Nick Radge

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    Tech,
    My comment is in regard to general commentary around the markets at present. The parallels’ to 1999 are unmistakable its just that now everyone is an expert in junior mining stocks.
     
  20. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    I see your point----Dont miss this up and comer--BCZ---!!!!
     
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