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The World is on the brink!

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No, we won't go to save the Ukraine. Even if we do like their Chicken Kiev. You need to study history to see how this might be ok, but in the modern world, changing boundaries is really dodgy. There's all sorts of precedents being set that might flow on. It's now ok to annex another country and the rest of the world says ok? Huh?? I think Russia has only got away with this because of the distractions in the Middle East. And the US handing over their position of the global super power. They are looking weak.

The Islamic State is something else entirely. This is really, really, changing the ball game. A very long term conflict is emerging.
 
Now, while the world is distracted by Syria, Ukraine, Boko Haram, Gaza, Afghan (we're still there), China building plots in the Sth China Sea, and this little Iraq adventure, what happens next? Ebola anyone?

Most of this is only happening because we're getting distracted and not focussing on any one thing.

Perfect opportunity for someone else to step up to the plate.

What's next I wonder.
 
Interesting article (although a little self serving) regarding the effect of decisions post past conflicts and how they have made the world what it is now. Eg, the lack of foresight in carving up the Middle East post WW1 and not supporting Russia after the break up of the Soviet Union. That has significantly contributed to what we all face now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30483873
 
OK, thread started a little while ago. Like someone calling a crash every year for 5 years and it being right 5 years later... lol

The teams are shaping up, and it looks bad.

The three reasons why major conflicts start are:

1. Resources
2. Alliances
3. Religion

We're already in the major conflict part really.

Why are we really ever at conflict:

1. Too many humans.
 

Not really.

Humans have been at war since they were apes and only a few on them were around.

Conflict tend to happen when resources are not distributed fairly or equally.

If you could convince the masses that inequality is acceptable, that them having less and them other having more... though unequal, but fair, then no conflict. But if unequal but unfair, then all you need is a spark and it'll be time for new monuments and new masters.

So take Australia... we know there are rich people and they seem to have it good. Most Australians are fine with that because it's good on 'em lucky bastards, we'll just have to work harder and find opportunities and we too could do alright for ourselves.

Egalitarian, merit-based, equal opportunity for all etc. Fair dinkum.

But if the masses keep working and keep labouring and getting nowhere, they will start to not blame themselves for being lazy (because they're working day and night)... and if they see that the system is rigged and stopped buying the bs about Muslims and immigrants/refugees taking their lunch and dinner, that's when you either feed the masses to free footies and crickets and some handouts or else they'll be marching.

See, when you extract everything from a stone then kick it around after you're done... there will be some who will pick it up and crack your head with it. Rich people got to learn that and we'll all live in peace and enjoy the footies (why or how people could enjoy that is another story).
 

Rich people get rich because of the consumer base of the mass market.

Unfortunately we seem to be importing more consumers at the same time that we are exporting jobs so less consumers are being paid so they can't afford to buy the rich people's products.

Bad luck for both the rich and everyone else. The rich will then try to chase the international markets and will try to depress the wages of the workforce so they can be "internationally competitive". Less wages, less consumption in this country, more unemployment, stock market crashes, recession.

We have got away with it so far but the boom times are over and we will either muddle through or come crashing down.
 

That's one way. There are others: tax codes; financial speculation/bail-out; good accountants; economic/fiscal policies; monetary policies that give them free money at the poor buggers' savings...

It's understandable they do what they do, just there need to be a leader who would rein them in to save them from themselves.

Say I'm the only rich guy in the country. It just make no sense for me to make all my potential consumer base poor. If they're poor how can they pay me for my stuff? if their job are not secure, how could they be happy and spoil their family with gifts and turn up to work doing their best? If I ship their jobs away, where are they going to get pay to buy my bacon?

The solution seems to be that yea... so they are poor and can't afford much, so let them get their other spouse to work. Since their job is insecure, they'll work for less; Since the states have been selling all these assets and the costs of living has gone up; let them borrow more of my money and I can charge them at cutthroat rates.

But I guess it will eventually work out somehow, if not then they'll just build higher fences or something.

----

Hope the boom will come back... but man. Keynesian policy would tell the gov't to invest freely during recessions. I have not heard or seen much at all past few years.

The NBN was promising, then Abbott came along and now Turnbull and I think Murdoch and Telstra won the day with NBN.

Maybe the federal highway expansion under Gillard/Rudd is still going; WestConnex in Sydney is going ahead and a few minor tram lines. Not many projects that grabs the headline and inspire the heck out of the people that's for sure. Well there's the submarines but we're told our builders aren't up to scratch.

There should be a lot more investment and activities. Hope it's all because I haven't been paying enough attention. All I seem to see in the headlines are rejigging the tax codes and calling up a few corporations to ask them why they pay so little tax and then bring them lunch for their trouble.
 

yes the gov in an ideal world smoothed out both the peaks by saving and the troughs by spending.

Nowadays in the peaks we say let the markets determine economic activity and in the troughs we have nothing to spend.

I Like your sentiment about infrastructure. I do think the right project can bring a city out of economic doldrums. A real nation building project is what we need. For selfish (among other) reasons I would be happy if 10pc of mine and everyone's super (if forced to ) was put into it.

Imagine 200bn of dams ports roads rail water power and heck even cultural infrastructure around the country. Who doesn't want another opera house?
 
If we wanted to create new valuable infrastructure to keep the economy going and people employed you couldn't go past fast tracking renewable energy projects across teh country.

Second option would be new generation electric transport , cars, trucks, tractors. Either new or retro fitted where that made sense

Then start looking at how to protect cities that are coming under pressure from rising sea levels, repeat flooding ect.

Or of course we could just pump a few more billion into the investment banks to create another round of share (paper) based profits. Just like the last 8 years
 
Ultra fast rail Melbourne>Canberra>Sydney>Brisbane would bring massive long-term benefits in my opinion.

Places on the rail route such as Albury-Wodonga could be transformed into new cities. This would take the strain of population and jobs growth off our capital cities as other rural centres become within easy commute of Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney. It would reduce pressure on airports with Melb>Syd being one of the busiest flight paths on the planet. Also a boost to tourism.
 
basilio said:
If we wanted to create new valuable infrastructure to keep the economy going and people employed you couldn't go past fast tracking renewable energy projects across teh country.
Click to expand...

With our current rate of debt and deficit, where's the money coming from ?

Hey, I've got an idea. Tax polluting fossil fuelled big business and subsidise renewable energy !

Na, that'd never work.

 
SirRumpole said:
With our current rate of debt and deficit, where's the money coming from ?

Hey, I've got an idea. Tax polluting fossil fuelled big business and subsidise renewable energy !

Na, that'd never work.

Click to expand...

Glad you put in the eye roll Rumpy. Would have been hard to see the sarcasm.. not.

In fact all we would have to do was remove the subsidies to fossil fuels and the market place would jump into action. The figures are compelling.
 

Some would say that increasing gross capital formation as the rate of GDP growth declines might just be a problem in the making, especially when consumer spending drops off.
 

I guess the thinking around Canberra and Sydney is if there's too many great stuff, we wouldn't treasure it as much

Was on a stopover in Shanghai and a colleague was saying how there's like 8 bridges as big or bigger than Sydney's Harbour in the city and they don't think much of it. We on the other hand...

But yes, we need a few major project to wrap a few flags around. Inspire the next generation of engineers, scientists, dreamers/dol-pludgers


Keep imagining I guess.

When I was in HS and our English teacher organised a trip to watch Death of a Salesman at the Sydney, fricking , Opera House... more than a few of us were excited at the idea of seeing being inside a landmark.

We turned up and the show's in some small basement with a few actors and a few chairs on a grey empty stage.

Not impressed. I could watch Dustin Hoffman and John Malchovich on VHS at home for $1 dude.
 

Too farsighted Basillo. Our leaders tend not to think of rainy days, and on sunny days they don't make hay either but head to the beaches.

Cheap oil will mean Tesla and alternatives to fossil won't be doing too good for a while.
Hear GM in the US is doing great with new sales. Forget about fuel efficiency too.

Read that the Vline in Victoria is cancelled and replaced with buses now.
 

Instead of BIG infrastructure maybe we should consider developing our own computer/moblile tablet industry to suit local conditions.

There are many people in the older age ranges who would benefit from mobile devices but are afraid of the technology. Filling a market niche by making a product that they can easily use could be a world beater.

We have an aging society, and a lot of them are routinely ignored by marketeers in all industries, except for funeral homes.
 

I don't think peeps appreciated broadband because it is hard to see the tangible benefit to it. You have to connected to computer science in my view otherwise your Telstra 500gb pm adsl connection seems way more than adequate.

Creating fertile land from arid land for example is easy to explain. It isn't cheap storing water and moving it but if we tell people a new food bowl will be created from average land (aka snowy river scheme) people know this must mean more jobs and more exports.

I guess I have my own vested interests to push but I was pretty dark with labours ideas for nation building in gfc in that none were inspirational to me. Don't expect inspirational nation building from the Libs anyway so no surprises there.
 

You have hit the nail on the head, its going to be food.

This mornings local paper saying growing water shortage west of Melbourne impacting 50% of our main fresh vegitables, collie flower, broccoli etc.,
 
Some insight from Chomsky on how to ruin the world: Do exactly what the Western world has been doing since the GFC.

Idle hands eager for work; much work is needed to be done; money is available to have it done but is given away and concentrated at the very top and in the big banks so nothing is getting done (besides stock buybacks, bonuses and financial speculations).


 
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When Turnbull took over, first press conference was all about optimism and how there's never been a better time to be an Australian... Kind of hollow singing such praises and having nothing to back it up with.
 
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