The gold bubble: when will they bust it?

[metric]

how high before the manipulators decide to bust it and make billions more?

in 2006 gold was about $500 usd an oz. its now about double that....

reinhardt is suggesting sell gold at or before $1250 per oz. or close to $2000 per oz aud.

my idea is he is right. if gold was purely at the mercy of m,arket forces i would say it should be, and would go higher.....much higher. but we know it IS manipulated. knowing that makes you realise that the gold price, and gold bubble is manufactured. manufactured so that tptb can bust that bubble and make a lot of money.....

what we have to do is sell before tptb busts the bubble.

im out at $1900 aud. doubled my money and happy with that. i will hold my silver......


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[moXJO]

how high before the manipulators decide to bust it and make billions more?

in 2006 gold was about $500 usd an oz. its now about double that....

reinhardt is suggesting sell gold at or before $1250 per oz. or close to $2000 per oz aud.

my idea is he is right. if gold was purely at the mercy of m,arket forces i would say it should be, and would go higher.....much higher. but we know it IS manipulated. knowing that makes you realise that the gold price, and gold bubble is manufactured. manufactured so that tptb can bust that bubble and make a lot of money.....

what we have to do is sell before tptb busts the bubble.

im out at $1900 aud. doubled my money and happy with that. i will hold my silver......


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I'm thinking along those lines as well. Sell off half my holdings at that price and make back my initial purchase, plus some. Then ride the rest to where ever it goes. If it moves much higher then that, I will be out with a pick and detector as a full time job.

 

[rederob]

Until there is a better option than gold, the gold price will continue higher.
That is, investors have very lean pickings at the moment, so until rotating out of gold into another assett class becomes more viable, gold will remain strong.
Time-wise it's difficult to see any improvement in global markets within 6 months, so selling early is not what I would be considering.

 

[moXJO]

Until there is a better option than gold, the gold price will continue higher.
That is, investors have very lean pickings at the moment, so until rotating out of gold into another assett class becomes more viable, gold will remain strong.
Time-wise it's difficult to see any improvement in global markets within 6 months, so selling early is not what I would be considering.

You don't think there will be a short term correction around those price levels? These stimulus packages might take some of the gleam off gold(S/T) given the massive amount of money being spent and things appear to return to normal.

 

[Glen48]

The last bailout is costing USA $1M a second $548 Million a day the Dow is crashing and will go lower where are people gong to put their money?.....Gold is all that is left.

 

[nizar]

LOL a bubble?!
Its only up about 5% year-on-year in USD terms.

Rederob, long time no speak bro i hope things are well.

 

[sinner]

Unfortunately, I think metric is right. We are at the mercy of the big banks.

They can take out a large amount of shorts at will from leased gold and forward-leased gold (not produced yet) and I don't think they can really sustain losses from doing this.

Check out Bill Lundeens step sum indicator for gold which shows net short position by the banks.
The guy from Perth Mint who was posting in the Perth Mint thread also has a blog which I checked out and he makes some valid points as to why it is reasonable for banks to do this I guess.

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2009/02/i-liked-this-reply-by-tom-szabo-to-some.html

Whether you call this manipulation or not is largely irrelevant, the banks (actually only JP Morgan now I believe) will and can take out huge short positions (on top of their huge short positions already) whenever they see fit and we will be holding the bag.

I am not sure it is manipulation, the banks have held the gold market net short position for over a decade and the price kept going up.
However, estimates are that if these shorts by the banks were to exit the markets then we would be looking at $2300 or so.

As another "however", some of the buggier goldbugs I have heard grumbles about the truth of the SPDR gold holdings. According to their net tonnage they must be the 5th or 6th largest gold holder in the world but this would put a noticeable dent even in the supposedly "free flowing" 400oz LBMA market.

Couldn't dig up a link but think it was Ted Butler or someone saying how speculative leveraged longs from the futures market could be the cause, and as the price rises a little they pile in more leveraged longs. If this is the case, whenever that person decides to cash out by selling into some strength then we could be left with very little to hold us up.

These are hard-core GATA type goldbugs saying this, which makes me nervous, and this is why I dislike these jumpy moves upwards without a lead from the gold miners. What was wrong with that consolidation channel we were in?

Also, has anyone considered that if the stock market gets bad enough, several large players will be forced to liquidate their holdings in gold miners to meet other commitments?

 

[Temjin]

Remember the old wisdom, it's impossible to identify a bubble until it burst.

The future of gold price is at the mercy of the market players and the will of the politicans to mess up the economy even more. Maybe one day comes a perfectly sane politican and decide to up the interest rate to 10%+, bankrupt everything and fast-track a great depression II that would set up a recovery in a much faster time. And then we will have commentators citing how gold was in a bubble because of that and that and now it has burst, and how clever they were in identifying it, blah blah blah.

 

[Sean K]

reinhardt is suggesting sell gold at or before $1250 per oz. or close to $2000 per oz aud.

Why should listen to this guy? He said the world would crash, probably tech related, on 9 Feb, and it didn't. If anything it's a sure sign gold will keep going higher.

 

[jonojpsg]

You don't think there will be a short term correction around those price levels? These stimulus packages might take some of the gleam off gold(S/T) given the massive amount of money being spent and things appear to return to normal.

Chris Vermeulen (Gold&OilGuy) reckons the technicals point to a correction before the next leg up. Have taken his advice (on silver tho, not gold) and shorted silver aiming for around $13.50 with a stop at $14.90.

 

[metric]

kennas...check chart..http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/


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[BentRod]

If anything it's a sure sign gold will keep going higher.

Spot on Kennas.

The fact that gold has barely broken out of its range of the last couple of years and it's already being called a bubble is a signal to get long IMO.

kennas...check chart..http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/

Bluddy hell.....I can't believe anyone would sign up to that Amateur Hour Site...LOL

I wonder how many subscribers signed up after viewing this pic

 

[Sean K]

Bluddy hell.....I can't believe anyone would sign up to that Amateur Hour Site...LOL

I wonder how many subscribers signed up after viewing this pic

You've got to be kidding! Surely that is not on the site?

Obviously marketing to the appropriate crowd.

 

[BentRod]

You've got to be kidding! Surely that is not on the site?

Have a look down the bottom, the pic is there.

Backyard Bandits Unite:screwy::screwy:

 

[metric]

yes i know......

a flawed genius is reinhardt. i havent subscribed to his pay site for various reasons.....


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[numbercruncher]

What gold bubble ?

Its just dodgy fiat currencies returning to fair value isnt it ?

 

[Ageo]

Not sure about a bubble but a $2-300 correction is definately on the cards (as it has been doing for these last few months). And from a selling point of view the price atm is top notch so anything from here and upwards is premium price (which means your getting top dollar). Even if you sold now and waited 1 month or so for this correction to kick in you can play it safer.

1 little edge i notice is when refiners pay me less than usual, that usually means they are factoring in a correction and ever since i have been buying scrap it always happens. For instance they have been paying me below spot now for around 3-4 weeks which is unusually long so im expecting (as they are) a nice correction (minimum $200 drop).

The refiners are connected with refineries overseas and mining companies, so any information that comes from them obviously is worth a hearing.

 

[MR.]

a flawed genius is reinhardt. i havent subscribed to his pay site for various reasons.....

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Like?

Now I get it..... You have just been taking the mickey out of reinhardt.
I actually thought you believed!

Jokes on me........ too!

I see why we need to send him money, he's a genius alright!

 

[nunthewiser]

I wonder how many subscribers signed up after viewing this pic

do we get one of those if we sign up?

 

[IFocus]

do we get one of those if we sign up?

I was thinking the same...........................