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The future of energy generation and storage

Extremely high demand in SA today with the temperature officially reaching 43.3 degrees in the Adelaide CBD with some suburbs recording up to 44.7 degrees.

Outside the metropolitan area parts of the state on the grid recorded up to 46.0 degrees, with some off-grid small towns recording up to 48.7 degrees.

Those are all proper BOM measurements.

Unsurprisingly that resulted in high electricity demand.

Including the estimated output of behind the meter generation, that is primarily rooftop solar, demand reached 3730MW at 17:30 whilst looking only at large scale centralised generation (including wind, solar, batteries, gas, etc) demand peaked at 3358MW at 19:45

The second figure is just short of the all time record high whilst the first, including rooftop solar in the data, is an all time high.

For the chart below:
Yellow = Solar
Green = Wind
Blue = Battery
Orange = Gas
Red = Diesel
Purple = from Victoria

 
Spreading the cost is not something you do when you favor solar farms or batteries to be fully write off after 15y max, so the biased opinion like the pages above , but it is ok: we will ship crushed panels to India,as we do now, except we will probably the one filling our desert with craps in 15y seeing our current economic trajectory.
 
Thanks for batteries...
 
Surely if all the costs are included, including recycling or disposal then you can come up with an effective comparison?
 
Surely if all the costs are included, including recycling or disposal then you can come up with an effective comparison?
yes, it is possible but none of the lobbies involved inc nuclear want the truth told, nor actually any real CO2 per kWH for the various options INCLUDING setup (transmission grid/losses and land cost), shipping, maintenance and end of life recycling [and battery or storage for solar/wind] to ensure 24/7 supply.
All the above imho making nuclear probably unlikely winners here in Australia
there are papers, none including the transport from China or installation and maintenance emission
so between
for comparison nuclear emissions are around 15 to 50 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per kilowatt hour (kWh) vs between 70 g CO2-eq/kWh and 300 g CO2-eq/kWh for solar farm + battery
I am 100% certain, by using science very basic figures and facts that the " CO2 is responsible for global warming" is a giant scam so could not care less but at the very least, if we pretend to destroy this country on this co2 tales, the very least is to do it right and not end up creating more of it on a lifetime for a few minutes of sunny midday peak glory pretense
After , I do not believe Australia is economically and technologically able to use nuclear on scale...
 
I agree. What's your solution?
preserve gas, burn gas;
open a big coal plant using good coal in qld, maybe one near Newcastle with a 50y lifetime
The ongoing base loads if good coal is available near existing grid and centers.
solar/wind a little bit as long as not on arable land and not subsidized, and with mandate to enforce a minimum 24/7 power for at least 2 days as well as a fund to pay for recycling/land restoration as is done in mining.
If the solar farms can be offer a base output cheaper than gas, no problem.
Start putting money in education for nuclear scientists and maybe develop a research thorium/fusion reactor to be ready when the time comes
I had JET lab stage offers while student in France, and my first job in ATC IT in Melbourne was with a nuclear physicist (born and bred Aussie), we can do it
On a 20y window, and if severing NIMB and assisted mentality, Australia could do it..but not with a focus on DEI, Phd in gender studies and red/green tapes.
We need a power crisis to wake everyone up,that will happen, no doubt; and probably poverty and hunger in the streets to maybe put this country back into a fighting position
But if the focus is CGT on RE, another super grab, NDIS absence of action or focus on if Elon is a nazi, well our Milei is at least 30 y away
 
open a big coal plant using good coal in qld, maybe one near Newcastle with a 50y lifetime

Interesting, it will certainly give us more time but is unsustainable eventually.

If we do that, then the Aus government should buy coal mines and ensure that the supplies go first to our national needs and not China's.

Start putting money in education for nuclear scientists and maybe develop a research thorium/fusion reactor to be ready when the time comes

Agree there as well. Nuclear technology like all others will advance and we need a "critical mass" of scientists here who can deal with it.
 
Thanks for batteries...
The sons offgrid system failed in the hot spell a couple of weeks ago, they had to run on the gen set for two days, high temp issues.
He is looking into extra cooling for the electronics.
I'm just off Malacca atm, taking the kids and grandkids on a cruise to Singapore, at least that is going well.

So far. Lol
 
The sons offgrid system failed in the hot spell a couple of weeks ago, they had to run on the gen set for two days, high temp issues.
He is looking into extra cooling for the electronics.
I was ironic vs the negligible impact batteries did make
 
AGL would be absolutely certain, they are getting paid to put in renewables and are probably also getting paid to run their coal plants, whereas nuclear would be owned and operated by the Government.
So why wouldn't AGL want renewables?

It's a bit like the NBN, the telcos and media were very keen for the taxpayer to put it in, why wouldn't they be they can now charge to view but did the general public get value for $50B? Big business did, the telcos did, the tv stations did, but did mum and dad who paid for it and now have more expensive internet and pay tv.
The answers would be very subjective IMO.

Asking vested interests for their opinion doesn't always give an accurate view IMO.
 
Yeah... Their most overriding issue was the fact that Nuclear power could never be ready in the time frame suggested by Petyer Dutton.

Their second issue was that keeping coal fired power stations operational until Nuclear Power was ready would prove very expensive and given the nature of aging plants being kept together with patch up solutions operational reliability would be a big issue.

Finally they had already seen the progress of solar/wind technology with battery backup. They knew the real figures of construction and output. They were a long way down the road sorting out engineering wrinkles .

And finally they had a handle of the cost and outcomes of renewable versus coal. It was no contest.
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It is also worth noting that AGL have a very active commercial presence in promoting solar panels, Home batteries, VPP (Virtual Power plant) systems and EV promotion, home charging and support.

So yes they have successfully moved from being a Coal fired power generator to a wider Renewable energy based provider.
It works. It's cost effective. It makes money. Customers like it.

Why would they ditch all this for a political Nuclear promise they are certain cannot be achieved in the proposed time frame and that would be far more expensive than current options ?
 
The situation will become obvious in the next few years, it will become obvious whether renewables can or can't cut it.

If they can, great, if they can't gas isn't going to be the answer IMO, it is a limited resource and gives off emissions.

Time will tell, but no one really knows the answer yet, so it is all just speculation at the moment IMO.
 
Time will tell, but no one really knows the answer yet, so it is all just speculation at the moment IMO.
In a strict technical sense I can prove it's possible to do it with renewables.

The economics are more challenging but we can certainly estimate what they are. There's plenty of people who can estimate the cost of things.

The politics is where it gets difficult since that's not based on hard, rational things. About all that can be said is that at present no significant political party actually supports going 100% renewable, all want to keep some fossil fuels in practice with the only real difference being whether the admit it or not.

The idea of going fully renewable is at present really just an interesting academic exercise done by engineers and others looking for a challenge. Nobody seriously expects it to actually happen in practice, it's a purely academic exercise to contemplate how it could be done if society ever decides to do it.
 
With illimited budget, we could probably build a ladder to the Moon , or at least space.
The real questions are :
#Can we fully go renewable energy only economically
#Does it has any overall environmental, or otherwise..benefit?
Aka is exporting our co2 production, mining pollution to China/India for panels production and destruction good for the environment, or good for anything else,?
Is it not the worst of NIMBY hypocrisy instead,,?
Lastly, should dependency on 100's of years reserves of coal in Qld worse than ongoing dependency to China , and open maritime channels,,?
Anything else we can leave to the green fanatics and Marxist Nazis imho
Have all a great weekend
 
The big problem is, the plebs think all that is required is putting in enough renewables to replace the current power stations and in reality that is the easy bit.

When that penny drops there will be a big ohhhh.
 
The real questions are :
#Can we fully go renewable energy only economically
#Does it has any overall environmental, or otherwise..benefit?
I'll argue the rational approach is to consider everything at the detail level.

Eg building solar up to the point it can be directly used and saves fuel whilst still keeping conventional plant online is a very different thing to building it beyond that point.

Hydro schemes are bespoke in engineering and economics. Just because one doesn't stack up doesn't mean a different one wouldn't work.

Opportunities to shape the load profile in a sensible manner without consumer impacts.

Etc.

No engineer, or anyone else taking a rational approach, would take a blanket approach based on a single technology or similar. Instead they'd look at the detail of each option and see where it fits (if at all) and go from there.

That's exactly how we did it historically, a combination of systems not the exclusive reliance on anything in particular.
 
As you have noted, the political system has changed to the point where bi-partisanship is no longer possible and technical experts are no longer trusted, unless they happen to agree with a political party's views.

Contrast that with the Snowy Hydro 1.0, a bi partisan agreement in the national interest, paid for by the taxpayer via a World Bank loan, and supported throughout it's development by both parties.

Now it's just a power struggle with one silly idea vs another with each side hoping they can pull the wool over the public's eyes.

This is happening around the world unfortunately, politics has gone feral and it will probably end in a revolution of some sort.
 
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