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- 14 February 2005
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Re: Do you have solar panels?
That's a bit of a hard question to answer since it depends on timeframe and what assumptions are made.
2013-14 = a net exporter.
2014-15 = net importer.
If we assume no climate change over the long term then = net exporter.
If we assume that the climate trends since the mid-1970's are not about to reverse then we're a net importer of either electricity as such, or of gas with which to run Tamar Valley power station (noting that importing electricity is currently the cheaper option rather than buying gas and that's likely to remain for a few years at least).
In the shorter term though, it really comes down to the market.
Broadly speaking for each state:
Qld = exports almost constantly.
NSW = imports almost constantly.
Vic = generally exports except at high demand times when it imports.
Tas = generally imports off-peak, exports at peak.
SA = historically a net importer but exports heavily at times of high wind generation in SA (especially when this coincides with low demand).
Absolutely it will favour the most economically efficient plants regardless of technology. The rise of solar generation, which tends to peak when demand is high, has already done that to some extent. Financially, the lack of very hot days this Summer has pretty much stuffed a lot of the industry as most of the money is made in just a few hours each year and that didn't really happen this Summer. If you look at nominal prices this year then they're basically the same as 15 years ago - that's a pretty big fall once inflation is taken into account.
The only real exception is Queensland, which at 5.627 cents / kWh average thus far for 2014-15 is most certainly the home of expensive electricity (along with WA and NT). For NSW, Vic, Tas and SA it's in the 3 - 4 cent range.
As for peaking plants, the gas ones aren't in a good position financially going forward anyway due to the rising gas price. The broad trend at the moment is less gas and hydro for baseload generation being replaced with coal. Less hydro in the shoulder periods is being replaced with gas, until the gas price goes up some more and hydro pushes it out of the shoulder periods, thus leaving gas largely out of the market apart from the genuine peaks in demand. For the coal and gas operators that's a consequence of their operating costs. For hydro it's a case of knowing what others' costs are and taking advantage of that via storage. Solar, wind etc just generate when the resource is there so they don't "play the game" as such.
That's a bit of a hard question to answer since it depends on timeframe and what assumptions are made.
2013-14 = a net exporter.
2014-15 = net importer.
If we assume no climate change over the long term then = net exporter.
If we assume that the climate trends since the mid-1970's are not about to reverse then we're a net importer of either electricity as such, or of gas with which to run Tamar Valley power station (noting that importing electricity is currently the cheaper option rather than buying gas and that's likely to remain for a few years at least).
In the shorter term though, it really comes down to the market.
Broadly speaking for each state:
Qld = exports almost constantly.
NSW = imports almost constantly.
Vic = generally exports except at high demand times when it imports.
Tas = generally imports off-peak, exports at peak.
SA = historically a net importer but exports heavily at times of high wind generation in SA (especially when this coincides with low demand).
Absolutely it will favour the most economically efficient plants regardless of technology. The rise of solar generation, which tends to peak when demand is high, has already done that to some extent. Financially, the lack of very hot days this Summer has pretty much stuffed a lot of the industry as most of the money is made in just a few hours each year and that didn't really happen this Summer. If you look at nominal prices this year then they're basically the same as 15 years ago - that's a pretty big fall once inflation is taken into account.
The only real exception is Queensland, which at 5.627 cents / kWh average thus far for 2014-15 is most certainly the home of expensive electricity (along with WA and NT). For NSW, Vic, Tas and SA it's in the 3 - 4 cent range.
As for peaking plants, the gas ones aren't in a good position financially going forward anyway due to the rising gas price. The broad trend at the moment is less gas and hydro for baseload generation being replaced with coal. Less hydro in the shoulder periods is being replaced with gas, until the gas price goes up some more and hydro pushes it out of the shoulder periods, thus leaving gas largely out of the market apart from the genuine peaks in demand. For the coal and gas operators that's a consequence of their operating costs. For hydro it's a case of knowing what others' costs are and taking advantage of that via storage. Solar, wind etc just generate when the resource is there so they don't "play the game" as such.