The future of energy generation and storage

sptrawler said:

Hobart traffic, about the same as a reasonable sized country town, but Hobart has much better roads.

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http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/greater_hobart_traffic_congestion_summit

Nowhere near as bad as a large city, but when a 15 minute trip turns into 90 minutes that does upset a few people.

It's still a great place to live though. Just frustrates me a lot knowing the background to both issues and wishing there was a better alternative to vote for. Someone who could actually think more than a few weeks ahead would be nice.

Smurf1976 said:

http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/greater_hobart_traffic_congestion_summit

Nowhere near as bad as a large city, but when a 15 minute trip turns into 90 minutes that does upset a few people.

It's still a great place to live though. Just frustrates me a lot knowing the background to both issues and wishing there was a better alternative to vote for. Someone who could actually think more than a few weeks ahead would be nice.

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I don't disagree with that.

But after four weeks and 7,000klm's, we are thinking of moving there.

Smurf, what's the latest on the Bass link repairs?
It sounds as though the Government is prepared to run the dam levels down to 6.5%, that's low. What is the peak demand at this time of year and will the back up generation cover it?
I would say there are some very nervous people in management.

sptrawler said:

But after four weeks and 7,000klm's, we are thinking of moving there.

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Good to hear you enjoyed your trip. And welcome if you do decide to move down here.

sptrawler said:

Smurf, what's the latest on the Bass link repairs?
It sounds as though the Government is prepared to run the dam levels down to 6.5%, that's low. What is the peak demand at this time of year and will the back up generation cover it?
I would say there are some very nervous people in management.

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Basslink is anyone's guess. They're aiming for repair by the end of May but now the ship's sitting in Geelong on account of bad weather in Bass Strait.

The cable has been cut and one half tests OK, the other half tests as faulty. Assuming they've cut it in the right place then they now just need to cut a bit more off the faulty part, test again, and do that until they've removed the failed section.

Let's just say that confidence in the Basslink repairs is about as low as is possible. Two missed deadlines thus far and now there's no actual deadline at all, just a "hoped for" date at the end of May. Planning is thus proceeding on the basis that it stays out of service until there's certainty that it's going to be fixed.

Adding to community frustration, cutting of the optical (communications) cable at the same time as the power cable crippled internet speeds for many with certain ISP's that wouldn't pay to use Telstra's two cables (from which they offered capacity to rivals at a regulated price).

Power situation:

Storage as of Monday was at 14.8%, down 0.7% for the week with no significant inflows to storage.

That figure combined with a few other things (see below) has produced a noticeable shift in morale among everyone involved. Reality is starting to hit home that we might actually be in serious trouble. Things just aren't going well that's for sure. It's all going wrong really.

Industrial load shedding was 14% of system energy (that's average load as distinct from peak) but one user needs to go back to full production to meet contracts for their products so that's now reduced to about 10% of load being shed.

So load is only going up from here. Heating load in Winter adds about 25% to total system energy and about 50% to peak demand when compared to Summer. And as the cold weather on Tuesday reminded everyone, Winter is most certainly on the way.

Add in return of industrial load and we're looking at roughly a 45% increase in total system load comparing the end of June with early March.

The 58 MW gas turbine being repaired overseas has been delayed another 3 weeks by weather where it's being fixed. Now won't be back until sometime in April (then it needs to be reinstalled before it actually produces any power).

A 17.5 MW gas turbine has come to a halt this week. More problems. Nothing major in itself since 17.5 MW isn't much but it's another problem we really don't need right now. You know things are bad when you're worried about 17.5 MW....

At least the Mitsubishi CCGT plant is working flawlessly at constant full load (208 MW). If that fails well then I recall a saying involving creeks and not having any paddles which would be appropriate. It does need a 1.5 - 2 week shutdown for maintenance in June that can't be avoided but let's just hope it works perfectly the rest of the time.

The 6.5% figure isn't a hard "engineering" figure. But someone had to come up with a figure at which point it really is game over and that's the best guess at this point in time. It could vary with a lot of things but it's right in terms of order of magnitude.

For some good news, production is underway from diesel with the Catagunya diesel "power station" now running at close to capacity. Only producing 20 MW but that's better than nothing. More to come as the Meadowbank, George Town, Port Latta and Tribute sites (plus some more TBA) are brought into operation over the coming weeks.

More good news is that there's some rain forecast for tomorrow with 25 - 50mm across most of the catchment areas. The bad news is that's it's a one-off with basically nothing forecast for the next week after that.

Current storage by catchment:

Great Lake / Arthurs Lake = 15.8%

Gordon = 7.4% and being run very hard in an effort to keep the rest of the system reasonably wet. Basically a case of sacrificing one scheme so as to keep everything else able to operate at full capacity. Won't be a problem given that gas and the diesels will contribute to meeting peak demand. Emptying Gordon doesn't come with any major non-energy downsides (irrigation or town water supply, environmental effects, etc) so is a better choice than draining out any of the other schemes.

Derwent = 21.8%

King = 20.9%

Pieman = 52.7% and being kept higher due to peak capacity considerations and noting the relatively small size of the storages relative to the scheme's peak generating capacity.

Mersey-Forth = 53.8% higher than the rest for the same reason as the Pieman.

Yolande (Lake Margaret) = 20.1%

Total System = 14.8%

Some uncertainty exists as to how Gordon will operate at even lower storage levels since it has never been operated this low previously (the others have individually all been lower at some point, though not all at once, but it does mean we know what happens with the rest at very low levels).

The basic risk there is that Gordon won't still be able to achieve full output at, say, 1% full. Sometime before that the peak discharge rate is going to be constrained due to insufficient water over the intake. There are models and calculations, but it's always better to have practical experience. So far, so good....

Sounds increasingly like good time in Tasmania to service the chainsaw and sharpen the axe.

drsmith said:

Sounds increasingly like good time in Tasmania to service the chainsaw and sharpen the axe.

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I'll have them ready by the front door just in case any politicians come door knocking.

Smurf1976 said:

I'll have them ready by the front door just in case any politicians come door knocking.

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Maybe it is time to get Bob Browns permission to dam the Franklin, create a new man made ecosystem and get Tasmania permanent cheap clean and green power.

nioka said:

Maybe it is time to get Bob Browns permission to dam the Franklin, create a new man made ecosystem and get Tasmania permanent cheap clean and green power.

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Maybe it's time to develope Tasmania's geothermal energy capability.

SirRumpole said:

Maybe it's time to develope Tasmania's geothermal energy capability.

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I once thought it was a good time to develop Australia's geothermal energy. In Rudd's time I invested good money to back those thoughts. Lost a tidy sum. Still believe in the potential. With one foot in the grave and the other on a banana skin I see it as a long term project and one that is not for me.

nioka said:

I once thought it was a good time to develop Australia's geothermal energy. In Rudd's time I invested good money to back those thoughts. Lost a tidy sum. Still believe in the potential. With one foot in the grave and the other on a banana skin I see it as a long term project and one that is not for me.

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Yes, I don't believe it's an area for private investors, it's a national interest project that should be financed and owned by governments.

SirRumpole said:

Yes, I don't believe it's an area for private investors, it's a national interest project that should be financed and owned by governments.

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Hydro would likely never have been built at scale without government involvement and brown coal wouldn't have been used at all had it not been seen as important at the time to develop it.

The same factors which put brown coal on hold until there was an outright crisis in Vic and SA are the same factors that are stopping geothermal now. The private sector likes "off the shelf" things and tends to be reluctant to back anything that's going to take a decade to produce any income and then with considerable risk.

But if Vic and SA had never developed low grade coal, and if Tas hadn't developed hydro, well the economies of those states would almost certainly have seen far less development than has actually occurred so there was a very real benefit in having a local energy supply of reasonable reliability (and despite the current circumstances, Tas hydro still has a better track record than just about anything else).

Back to the situation in Tas, well at least we've had some decent rain and wind today.

Smurf1976 said:

Hydro would likely never have been built at scale without government involvement and brown coal wouldn't have been used at all had it not been seen as important at the time to develop it.

The same factors which put brown coal on hold until there was an outright crisis in Vic and SA are the same factors that are stopping geothermal now. The private sector likes "off the shelf" things and tends to be reluctant to back anything that's going to take a decade to produce any income and then with considerable risk.

But if Vic and SA had never developed low grade coal, and if Tas hadn't developed hydro, well the economies of those states would almost certainly have seen far less development than has actually occurred so there was a very real benefit in having a local energy supply of reasonable reliability (and despite the current circumstances, Tas hydro still has a better track record than just about anything else).

Back to the situation in Tas, well at least we've had some decent rain and wind today.

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1. I think our governments have gone from nation builders to rent seekers.

2. Good luck with the weather, you really need a deluge to get back to scratch.

And the number is..... 14.6% (or 14.66% if you want to be precise). That's down from 14.8% last week.

I think a few people might have underestimated the rain over the past week and lost their bets with this one.

System load is now starting to increase with cooler weather (a bit of heating load is now apparent) and also some industrial load back online.

Presently running about 62% hydro, 25% gas, 11% wind, 2% diesel on a weekly average basis.

Progress with gas and diesel generation:

Gas.

The Rolls Royce unit is fixed and should be back in Tas within a few days. Then just need to re-install it and should be up and running in a couple of weeks. That'll bring gas up to about 30% of total generation. That's the good bit.

The bad bit is one of the small gas turbines has had a problem and not running for a while. Those things aren't at all reliable, they're nothing but trouble really and were going to be scrapped at the end of 2017, but at least 3 of them are still going. Others will be running in due course. Cooler weather and some tinkering has brought the 3 working ones up close to full capacity however.

Diesel.

Catagunya site is now complete. Meadowbank is about to start running. Still building George Town, Port Latta and Que River and aiming to have them all going by the end of the month which will lift diesel to about 8% of total supply into the grid from a total of 107 generators. Diesel fuel itself has turned up too over the weekend, now in oil company storage tanks and being hauled (by road) to the temporary power stations as they start to operate. More diesels to come next month too.

Less seriously, I'm thinking that we ought to ask Walshy if he can make "rain dance" a feature of this year's Dark Mofo. Get enough people to all do it at once and maybe it will work. That plus conduct the nude swim at Great Lake this year. Just ask everyone to bring a few buckets of water with them, tip them into the lake so there's actually some water in it and all should be good to go. :

Image shows Great Lake between the No.2 (on the left) and No. 3 (on the right) dams. No.2 was built 1922 but replaced with the higher No.3 dam in 1967 (itself raised further in 1982). If it were full, the water would completely submerge the No.2 dam and be near the top of the tower on the right just below the walkway.

https://www.tasmaniatalks.com.au/assets/images/1919615_1241470565881002_761709071887785770_n.jpg

Came across a thoughtful argument on the applicability of various renewable energy options in different situations.
Liked it.

Energy strategies: horses for courses
Posted on March 20, 2016 | 141 Comments

by Planning Engineer and Rud Istvan

Just because something works in one place’s circumstances does not mean it will work elsewhere under different circumstances. Perhaps you’ve seen the posting on the left, or others with a similar message. With any thought though, it soon becomes clear that not “every” parking lot is a good candidate for co-functioning as a solar generation station. Parking lots are incredibly diverse: some lack sun, some can’t support the infrastructure, some are far from power needs and converting some parking lots would unduly sacrifice the local environment.

The Green Diamond Group was likely engaging in a bit of hyperbole. Unfortunately, many embrace such hyperbole without thinking, such that unrealistic expectations abound when it comes to the potential capabilities, performance and applicability’s of many renewable resources.

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https://judithcurry.com/2016/03/20/energy-strategies-horses-for-courses/

If you're in Tas and planning to go fishing then maybe cross Lake King William off the list.

Filmed yesterday and the location is Lake King William, filmed from a point approximately 4km south of the northern most point of the lake and 2km south from where the lake becomes a wide expanse of water (being fairly narrow at the far northern end).

After that we went further south, ultimately reaching a point about 5km south of the northern most point of the lake. Still no water to be found at that point, it's completely dry apart from some water flowing through the natural river channel which is only a few metres wide.

Lake King William is discharged via the small Butlers Gorge power station at the dam and then conveyed by canal to Tarraleah. After that it's re-used at another 6 power stations downstream and a bit is then taken for Hobart's water supply and some irrigation uses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWWB1tLv-uU

Tasmania once had the chance to have the cheapest power in the nation. Rightly or wrongly that was scuttled by Bob Brown and his followers with the no more dams policy.

Maybe the answer to the current situation is to deny power to those that actively participated in stopping more hydro development.

In stopping hydro development they also stopped Tasmania from becoming a great industrial state. But then maybe that really was the objective. Sort of like a hippy stopping progress but then drawing the dole.

Smurph how is it going over there? Any rain, or repairs to the extension cord yet?

Latest update on the situation in Tas and what should (hopefully) be the final plan on how to deal with it.

Water storage = 13.9% as of yesterday and falling. This is an all time record low.

Basslink - fault has been found and now being repaired. Should be returned to service sometime in June.

Diesel generators - 22 MW is running now, should be up to 57 MW by the end of the week and 89 MW by the end of next week. Then another 35 MW within a few weeks. This is the expected constant power output capability of the numerous individually small (and of multiple different types) generators. Peak power rating is a bit higher and the media seems to be mostly quoting that figure instead.

Gas generation:

208 MW combined cycle unit is running perfectly.

Nominally 105 MW (continuous rating) old open cycle units are struggling but managing to produce about 55 MW from 3 of the 6 turbines. Two of the failed ones should be repaired (basically rebuilt in practice, it's a complete overhaul required for what would otherwise be considered as 'end of life' equipment) by about July. Another one failed recently so add that to the list.

58 MW open cycle turbine is back on site after modification overseas by the manufacturer to correct a design fault. Has been test run on site (all OK) and now being reinstalled as such.

100 MW of new plant has been obtained. Half should be running early in May and the other 2 x 25 MW units (open cycle) by the end of the month.

Whilst the diesel and gas generation units are mostly individually small, it was a case of taking whatever was available and which could be installed quickly given the circumstances. Collectively it all adds up to a significant amount of power, just from a lot of mostly small generators (which then becomes quite a challenge to maintain with so many of them, but that's another story).

Cloud seeding - gets underway at the start of April in an effort to make it rain.

PS - There's quite a lot of anecdotal evidence that a few people have started to panic. If you're looking to buy a small generator, eg for camping or whatever, then I reckon there will be quite a few "new, unused" ones for sale in Tas once all this is over.

I can hear the sphincters releasing from here.lol

It will be interesting to see what the fallout is ,when the dust settles.
Second Bass link, more dam storage capacity, or limit export when a minimum reserve dam capacity is reached.