Technical Analysts - can you explain this 18% rise with charts?

barney · 20 September 2012

CanOz said:
Barney, you may be right about manipulation, but don't let it cloud your judgement on what the price action can tell you.

CanOz

No cloudy judgement Can ... see above post to Tech.

In these types of cases where we get rogue spikes out of the blue, I think its prudent to take a skeptical view of the price action and do a bit of follow up research on the Company's fundamentals to see how much substance there might be ..... if the results look a little over-hyped, I won't touch them with a barge pole, regardless of whether they make new highs or not ....... but thats just my choice.
Cheers

CanOz · 20 September 2012

barney said:
No cloudy judgement Can ... see above post to Tech.

In these types of cases where we get rogue spikes out of the blue, I think its prudent to take a skeptical view of the price action and do a bit of follow up research on the Company's fundamentals to see how much substance there might be ..... if the results look a little over-hyped, I won't touch them with a barge pole, regardless of whether they make new highs or not ....... but thats just my choice.
Cheers

Fair comment, you have the experience with this not me...

It would be interesting to watch this intra-day to see what happens with supply vs demand.

CanOz

Gringotts Bank · 20 September 2012

barney said:
I think we all agree that mostly its pretty difficult to see without the use of hindight.

Yeh, impossible. There was an opportunity for a buy at 81.5, which was the breakout price. Now you'd be sitting on a gain of 10.5% with more to come.

barney · 20 September 2012

Gringotts Bank said:
Yeh, impossible. There was an opportunity for a buy at 81.5, which was the breakout price. Now you'd be sitting on a gain of 10.5% with more to come.

It was a good breakout trade for sure. GRY is of course a lot more "solid" Company than the Spec examples I have been throwing up, and maybe thats more the important distinction ...... whether the price Spikes are genuine or flash in the pan

CanOz said:
Fair comment, you have the experience with this not me...

It would be interesting to watch this intra-day to see what happens with supply vs demand.

CanOz

If by experience you mean I know how to lose a lot of cash on hyped up Specs ...... you are correct Fortunately it doesn't happen quite as often now days

Here is an example of one I was watching yesterday .............. Huge spike on News ............. I did my due diligence last night and concluded the price rise was way over done compared to the results in the announcement .... no trade under any circumstances.

This morning it gapped open about another 16% ....... It may keep rising, but my Barge pole just got longer!!

Anyway, I've taken up too much room on this thread ...... back to shadowsutthedoor:

tech/a · 20 September 2012

barney said:
It was a good breakout trade for sure. GRY is of course a lot more "solid" Company than the Spec examples I have been throwing up, and maybe thats more the important distinction ...... whether the price Spikes are genuine or flash in the pan

If by experience you mean I know how to lose a lot of cash on hyped up Specs ...... you are correct Fortunately it doesn't happen quite as often now days

Here is an example of one I was watching yesterday .............. Huge spike on News ............. I did my due diligence last night and concluded the price rise was way over done compared to the results in the announcement .... no trade under any circumstances.

This morning it gapped open about another 16% ....... It may keep rising, but my Barge pole just got longer!!

Anyway, I've taken up too much room on this thread ...... back to shadowsutthedoor:

So far an inside day on average volume.
Not a bad sign.
Supply still enough to depress price.

barney · 20 September 2012

tech/a said:
So far an inside day on average volume.
Not a bad sign.
Supply still enough to depress price.

I assume you are referring to THR Tech ........

Just so there is no confusion, the last chart I posted up today was of MEU, and its the one I would not trade.

tech/a · 20 September 2012

Yes I was
But I dont know about your barge pole on MEU.
It seems to be lapping up supply

barney · 20 September 2012

tech/a said:
Yes I was
But I dont know about your barge pole on MEU.
It seems to be lapping up supply

Lol ..... My Barge pole is my main indicator:nunchux: yeah its going ok, but those that bought the Spike open at 5.7 and up to 5.8 might not see it that way.

I'm not saying it won't go up ... just that I wouldn't trade it. A "nothing of real substance" announcement which spiked the price about 90% rings "risk bells" in my head .......... Happy to let it slide .......

Either way, it fits the News/Price action concept of the thread, so maybe something of value over the next few days from it.

barney · 21 September 2012

tech/a said:
Yes I was
But I dont know about your barge pole on MEU.
It seems to be lapping up supply

Did you get on Tech? Up another lazy 130% ....... Speeding Ticket?

barney · 21 September 2012

Make that 340% .....

Management of MEU take a bow ...... Marketing genius ......

Here is a snippet of the two announcements on the 19th and 20th ........

Note the reference to SIR ................

Punters should take note however ................. NO holes have even been drilled yet ........ My barge pole is white hot ..... well done if you were on it though ....... but watch out for the cliff edge:1zhelp:

Announcement 19th September

5 km long coincident copper/nickel-in-calcrete anomaly and magnetic target identified on
Pundinya in the Gawler Craton.
• Anomalous copper and nickel-in-calcrete with grades of up to 175 ppm Cu and 330 ppm Ni,
similar to the initial results reported from the recent Nova discovery in WA.

The anomaly is very similar to the geochemical in soils results from the recently announced Sirius Resources Nova nickel discovery in Western Australia. The copper in soils at Nova reaches a maximum of 175 ppm Cu and the maximum nickel in soils reaches 373 ppm Ni as shown in the diagram below.

Announcement 20th September

The infill surface sampling currently in progress at the Durkin copper-nickel prospect has confirmed large scale
outcrop (Figure 2) with a number of sites containing good quality visible copper and nickel mineralisation. NITON
XRF spot readings have also been undertaken of key sample sites with readings returning results far exceeding
previously reported maximum copper results from sampling. NITON spot readings include copper grades of up to
654.32 ppm Cu* (Table 1) significantly higher than the previously reported maximum of 175 ppm Cu.

barney · 21 September 2012

Surprised MEU hasn't raised a few comments today.

From a technical view, probably a great lesson in VSA (herd mentality) trading today ... (any thoughts Tech?)

tech/a · 21 September 2012

barney said:
Surprised MEU hasn't raised a few comments today.

From a technical view, probably a great lesson in VSA (herd mentality) trading today ... (any thoughts Tech?)

Well we both talked about it.
But there was certainly a very good day trade in there.
Supply hit hard late in the day as those who rode the
Volatility all day closed out.
Likely to jump first thing on Monday and come off again.

These are rare but very tradable.
I didn't see the first post on 130% rise until after lunch

Got any more Barney?

Country Lad · 23 September 2012

MEU was an interesting one in that it came up on a scan on 19 Sep.

I don't normally get interested in penny dreadfuls but the chart was a bit interesting, particularly when it gapped up on open on the 21st.

Tech stuff does work.

Cheers
Country Lad

tech/a · 23 September 2012

Hi CL
How's the tropics!

I notice the scan picks up many prospects.
And of those on screen only MEU continued
On. While I agree tech analysis " works "
It isn't as simple as scan/buy/profit.

Infact sorting the scans particularly with any
Prospects---which is necessary with a good scan
Is terribly difficult.

Finding outlier prospects in hind site
Is far easier than on the day they are found.

CanOz · 23 September 2012

tech/a said:
Hi CL
How's the tropics!

I notice the scan picks up many prospects.
And of those on screen only MEU continued
On. While I agree tech analysis " works "
It isn't as simple as scan/buy/profit.

Infact sorting the scans particularly with any
Prospects---which is necessary with a good scan
Is terribly difficult.

Finding outlier prospects in hind site
Is far easier than on the day they are found.

Tech, curious as to whether or not TG picked up anything on its scanner?

CanOz

tech/a · 23 September 2012

CanOz said:
Tech, curious as to whether or not TG picked up anything on its scanner?

CanOz

I'll have a look tomorrow when I crank it up.

I'm sure it will but it's no better than any other scan
100s of alerts are triggered everyday.
And about 50 % in a market like this will go
On with it for up to 3 bars.

Country Lad · 23 September 2012

tech/a said:
Hi CL
How's the tropics!.

G'day tech, haven't been in the tropics for years - still full time travelling around the country with a few overseas trips thrown in. Been in remote parts during last winter doing volunteering which we really enjoyed.

tech/a said:
I notice the scan picks up many prospects.
And of those on screen only MEU continued
On. While I agree tech analysis " works "
It isn't as simple as scan/buy/profit.

If only it was that easy. That particular scan has some odd criteria looking for outliers.

tech/a said:
Infact sorting the scans particularly with any
Prospects---which is necessary with a good scan
Is terribly difficult.

Finding outlier prospects in hind site
Is far easier than on the day they are found.

Never look for them in hindsight, that's a waste of time. I still have a preference for looking at P&F patterns - they have been the most successful and far more simple.

Cheers
Country Lad

barney · 24 September 2012

tech/a said:
Got any more Barney?

This one should be on the watch list ..... Third test at these levels on heavy volume. Most of that volume was on the Open at 2.2-2.3 cents, and the Gap open was very aggressive.

The Project update had some "interesting" mineral grades as well, so looks like some fundamental substance to the rise as well which is good.

Supply or Demand yet to be proven, but has potential for sure.

Gringotts Bank · 24 September 2012

barney said:
This one should be on the watch list ..... Third test at these levels on heavy volume. Most of that volume was on the Open at 2.2-2.3 cents, and the Gap open was very aggressive.

The Project update had some "interesting" mineral grades as well, so looks like some fundamental substance to the rise as well which is good.

Supply or Demand yet to be proven, but has potential for sure.

Nice pattern. I would have a conditional buy at .028, with a limit .029 on this.

tech/a · 24 September 2012

Its definately Supply
Price keeps resisting.

Whats not known is
if/when Supply is exhausted.

What we do know is that its
being pushed to test 3 times
this time more supply as in volume.

Watch for VERY low volume bars and
support.

Technical Analysts - can you explain this 18% rise with charts?

barney

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Gringotts Bank

barney

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Country Lad

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