SUPPLY ——- getting in front of the masses.

[IFocus]

EG Tech Trader back in the day dropped from a peak of $500K + to $365 K before I Pulled the plug.
It eventually closed out Every position so did its job but was costly from its peak.

Remember Tech Trader followed from start to finish (Reef Capital) well done Tech it was one of those trades that had all the right elements of trading including luck which you made for yourself.

Not sure there are many here that will appreciate the shorter time frame of VSA, shorter times frame are IMHO all or nothing commitment.

 

[tech/a]

Remember Tech Trader followed from start to finish (Reef Capital) well done Tech it was one of those trades that had all the right elements of trading including luck which you made for yourself.

Not sure there are many here that will appreciate the shorter time frame of VSA, shorter times frame are IMHO all or nothing commitment.

Techtrader un be known to anyone caught a screaming bull market for 4 years and that’s just the best of luck for a long only system !

 

[StockyGuy]

Anyone use these?


View attachment 205535


Either as stand-alone or in conjunction with something else?


jog on
duc

I think the SPY volume is different though, to a standard individual stock. Its price reflects those 500 companies it is made up of. There's gonna be some correlation, sure. There's also somewhat delayed impacts on their underlying companies, which downstream impacts the price of SPY. Also I think big volume spikes just after 9:30am and just before 4pm NY time are normal on the SPY, regardless of whether there's a big price move. I think it's appropriate to have the volume indicator on, if you're gonna trade the SPY (or other massive ETFs), but I don't think it's as meaningful as with an individual stock (which has only a limited number of shares available). Correct me if I'm wrong here...

 

[ducati916]

I think the SPY volume is different though, to a standard individual stock. Its price reflects those 500 companies it is made up of. There's gonna be some correlation, sure. There's also somewhat delayed impacts on their underlying companies, which downstream impacts the price of SPY. Also I think big volume spikes just after 9:30am and just before 4pm NY time are normal on the SPY, regardless of whether there's a big price move. I think it's appropriate to have the volume indicator on, if you're gonna trade the SPY (or other massive ETFs), but I don't think it's as meaningful as with an individual stock (which has only a limited number of shares available). Correct me if I'm wrong here...

Mr SG,

Could it be relative?




jog on
duc

 

[StockyGuy]

Mr SG,

Could it be relative?

View attachment 205576


jog on
duc

My comments were more around the SPY ETF, not the company stock you've got there now (HIMS). I'm more open to volume information as an extra edge on individual company stocks. Keen to steal any actionable insights that might turn up in the course of this thread

 

[ducati916]

My comments were more around the SPY ETF, not the company stock you've got there now (HIMS). I'm more open to volume information as an extra edge on individual company stocks. Keen to steal any actionable insights that might turn up in the course of this thread

Morning Mr SG,

I did understand your issue.

1. SPY trades as a stock generally. No-one actually tries to calculate the actual weighting day-to-day. The ETF provider will rebalance, but that really doesn't concern me day-to-day.

2. So I posit that if volume is an important element and more and more I am accepting that it is: then do those volume candles have any importance in the decision making process?

Today:




As you have stated, significant volume comes in at the close.

That S1 level is short term support.

I would say that tomorrow opens higher.
Retests todays high at +/- $636.72
Closes around $634.70

Let's see how it plays out.


jog on
duc

 

[StockyGuy]

Morning Mr SG,

I did understand your issue.

1. SPY trades as a stock generally. No-one actually tries to calculate the actual weighting day-to-day. The ETF provider will rebalance, but that really doesn't concern me day-to-day.

2. So I posit that if volume is an important element and more and more I am accepting that it is: then do those volume candles have any importance in the decision making process?

Today:

View attachment 205593


As you have stated, significant volume comes in at the close.

That S1 level is short term support.

I would say that tomorrow opens higher.
Retests todays high at +/- $636.72
Closes around $634.70

Let's see how it plays out.


jog on
duc

Yeah, there's little efficiencies and rebalancing.

But I don't think SPY really trades as a stock in a demand and SUPPLY sense - "The value of the S&P 500 changes constantly throughout the trading day based on the movements of its underlying constituents. Its calculation includes the number of shares being traded as well as the share price of each company." ( https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/sp500calculation.asp ) The source I quote from does mention there's a proprietary aspect to the exact divisor used in the calculation they use, though.

But there's no effective limit to the number of SPY shares - it is certainly impactful on the big components like NVIDIA and Microsoft, which in turn affect the price of SPY. There's a delayed feedback loop. Exactly how all that happens is not completely transparent, to me at least. I think the suggestion that they are unnaturally propping up the big US companies by the capital inflows from the world's pension funds is possibly not something they want to validate by shouting it from the rooftops. I assume they first match buyers to sellers before they go out and re-buy the 503 tickers proportionally. There's doesn't have to be a seller for SPY, though. If no one sells a single SPY share, we could still go in and buy SPY to our heart's content.

SPY is not devalued when more shares exist in the same ways that some two-bit mining company IS devalued by a last ditch desperado capital raising making new shares out of thin air. Demand and supply don't work the same with this one. There's no doubt correlations obviously, aside from what I said about new purchases of the underlying; the SPY/SPX/ES etc all reflect and the set the tone for the entire market in their own different ways. So maybe you can get value from the volume bars on the SPY - because there's inherent correlations and dependencies involved. If it helps you win, GOOD STUFF! Keep doing it

I think your "prediction" doesn't need the volume indicator at all. S1 was respected well regardless of what the volume was showing at various times during the day.

For other reasons I'd always lean toward SPY / S&P 500 rising overnight though - not just because of overall positive drift, but because of the observed phenomenon of disproportionate gain overnight for the S&P 500. (The latter which presents a dilemma for anyone designing a strategy trying to avoid overnight holding costs that various leveraged instruments involve.)

But anyways on single company stocks I'm definitely open to markedly high volume bars making the following candle more likely to continue in whatever direction the high volume one was heading. I see them sometimes meaningfully showing where the big guys have their limit orders set, usually around fairly obvious lines of support and resistance. But seeing it all after the fact is very different from using it profitably in the moment. That's what I hope to learn here

Anyways, I don't wanna derail the thread with my carry on. Keen to hear more about volume. Also curious to see any depth of market (order book) stuff which I think tech has in mind

 

[ducati916]

Yeah, there's little efficiencies and rebalancing.

But I don't think SPY really trades as a stock in a demand and SUPPLY sense - "The value of the S&P 500 changes constantly throughout the trading day based on the movements of its underlying constituents. Its calculation includes the number of shares being traded as well as the share price of each company." ( https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/sp500calculation.asp ) The source I quote from does mention there's a proprietary aspect to the exact divisor used in the calculation they use, though.


Essentially I agree that SPY is not a stock and as such, has different variables. That being said, I would still argue that it trades exactly like a stock for all practical purposes.

One difference that makes no practical difference, although it did in 1987, is the value spread between Futures and the ETF.

But there's no effective limit to the number of SPY shares -

Agreed. But day-to-day, it makes no real practical difference.



it is certainly impactful on the big components like NVIDIA and Microsoft, which in turn affect the price of SPY. There's a delayed feedback loop. Exactly how all that happens is not completely transparent, to me at least. I think the suggestion that they are unnaturally propping up the big US companies by the capital inflows from the world's pension funds is possibly not something they want to validate by shouting it from the rooftops. I assume they first match buyers to sellers before they go out and re-buy the 503 tickers proportionally. There's doesn't have to be a seller for SPY, though. If no one sells a single SPY share, we could still go in and buy SPY to our heart's content.

Again, true, but day-to-day, no real practical impact if trading SPY ETF.

SPY is not devalued when more shares exist in the same ways that some two-bit mining company IS devalued by a last ditch desperado capital raising making new shares out of thin air. Demand and supply don't work the same with this one. There's no doubt correlations obviously, aside from what I said about new purchases of the underlying; the SPY/SPX/ES etc all reflect and the set the tone for the entire market in their own different ways. So maybe you can get value from the volume bars on the SPY - because there's inherent correlations and dependencies involved. If it helps you win, GOOD STUFF! Keep doing it

True. But again, 'valuation' in bull markets means very little. This is a momo market.

I think your "prediction" doesn't need the volume indicator at all. S1 was respected well regardless of what the volume was showing at various times during the day.

But of course the concept of support/resistance/volume is providing evidence that SPY trades just like a stock with a fixed (relatively) float.

For other reasons I'd always lean toward SPY / S&P 500 rising overnight though - not just because of overall positive drift, but because of the observed phenomenon of disproportionate gain overnight for the S&P 500. (The latter which presents a dilemma for anyone designing a strategy trying to avoid overnight holding costs that various leveraged instruments involve.)


SPY drops overnight about as often as it rises. LOL. 50/50

But anyways on single company stocks I'm definitely open to markedly high volume bars making the following candle more likely to continue in whatever direction the high volume one was heading. I see them sometimes meaningfully showing where the big guys have their limit orders set, usually around fairly obvious lines of support and resistance. But seeing it all after the fact is very different from using it profitably in the moment. That's what I hope to learn here


This is the issue that this thread is trying to elucidate.

Anyways, I don't wanna derail the thread with my carry on. Keen to hear more about volume. Also curious to see any depth of market (order book) stuff which I think tech has in mind

Absolutely relevant observations and comments.

Through the years I have never really been big on volume as being important. Changing my mind now as far as short term trades go. 1 day to 1 week. After that, hmmm.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So this is where we sit currently.

The volume suggests higher. Selling has been weak at the resistance point. It looks as if we will trade towards R2.

This week we have made higher highs and higher lows, which suggests (this week) is bullish.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So a couple of hours later, slightly higher, but choppy.

In about an hour the volume will come in. My bet, slightly higher close than we have currently. Say +/- $639.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So this is how it closed




So the volume came in after a fast selloff down to $636.07, it then very quickly traded higher as the volume came in.

So I would expect, absent news, a higher open on Monday. If this was opening tomorrow rather than Monday, I would have joined the horde and bought the close.

Can definitely use 0DTE and 1DTE Options here either as an outright position or as a vertical. I would prefer the vertical, limits risk, particularly if IV is high. Currently its not, but that won't always be the case.

I would also allow an extra day. So assuming the market was open tomorrow:

1. Buy a vertical at close today with at least 2 days to expiry; and
2. Look to close trade next day.

The purpose of an extra day is if you are unable to trade the following Open, which is where you will hit target, to have that extra day.

This plan is open to refinements. LOL.


jog on
duc

 

[tech/a]

I'll offer what my ol' man used to say, "Listen son, you have two ears and two eyes but only one mouth so use it wisely."

Now as per tech/a's OP.


So just the poll running for 90 days @ShareSuccess

@tech/a
Thanks again for taking time to assist in this most excellent place called ASF.

Obviously Technical Analysis (T/A) isn't for everyone however, I'm of the opinion that the more tools one has in the toolkit, one can select the appropriate tool for the task at hand. Ever tried using a flathead screwdriver as a wood chisel?

FWIW.
In the poll I'll select "I want to learn and ask questions and comment" but as time isn't my friend, realisticly will be in the camp of "I’m interested but will only be watching (and learning)" My bolds.
Well that's the plan at this point in time.

You've posted links in the past and I've looked at purchasing, Trade Guider I think it was, decided against it as still can't dedicate meaningful time to it, I'm probably not disciplined enough to study it in depth plus and from memory, the need for realtime data.
This may change over the next few years as I enter retirement and can pursue further investing interests ergo, day and short term trading.

Anyways, cheers again for you taking an interest and more importantly, the time in helping others on their investment journeys.

I’ll comment a little on Tradeguider VSA software.

Met Gavin Holmes through Nick Radge at a seminar Nick was involved with Gavin.
Had a chance to catch up with both for a chat the day before the seminar.

Gavin struck me is a straight shooter even though his past live was a copper.
Gavin had an interest in trading and found Tom Williams and has approach to
Trading through VSA gelled with him. So much so Gavin went in boots and all and
Tradeguider was born. The thing that’s impressed me over the years is Gavin’s relentless
Pursuit of improvement of the software and more than anything it’s application to
Practical implementation.

I have Tradeguider and as it’s been many years since I’ve visited their home page I notice some new products. From a brief look they are interesting enough for me to look closer.

No matter what you settle on in TA you need to know what your looking at without
Hesitation. Like driving a car or learning a martial art. Muscle memory no thinking you
Just know what to do. Tradeguider s software was my Brains teacher. Clearly labelling the
Setups bars ,Support and resistance and all aspects necessary to validate the signals on a
Chart. After 1000 s of charts it does become automatic you just see it.This is the greatest value of the software for me.

I also noticed things the VSA software didn’t and in turn Gavin. You’ll find I’ve spoken on Volume Support elsewhere for one observation that I use in my trading.
Sure it has a cost but if I drive a car I better know it instantly without thinking.
If I’m investing my hard earned —- Same Same.!,

Some general comment
If I’m investing larger amounts I need some fundamental background
I’m not going to wade through balance sheets but for stock to be included in
Margin lists someone has done the work.

For shorter trades minutes to a few days I really don’t care about fundamentals only my analysis.


I find it easier to be right for a few minutes than a few days and definitely weeks!

I trade one at a time as it’s easier for me to monitor, using position sizing that I’d use on 5 or so trades.
Eg 2.5 to 8 % of equity risk I don’t think I’ve ever lost 100% of risk in anyone trade!

I’ll get back to Supply soon
There has been some comment on the DRO thread which I traded this week and some are still trading

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

When you use t/h or Th what does it stand for @tech/a

gg

 

[tech/a]

When you use t/h or Th what does it stand for @tech/a

gg

Sorry don’t follow
In what context?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry don’t follow
In what context?

My apologies @tech/a . My fault. It was from a post of yours on https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/decoding-volume-support-resistance-supply-and-demand.19831 . No need to reply. I'll ask separately down the track.

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

When you use t/h or Th what does it stand for @tech/a

gg

Hahaha
Trembling Hand !
Was an expert in reading the tape

TH

Old people....

 

[frugal.rock]

A potential getting in front of the masses? Something is up anyway.
No market sensitive announcements since quarterly.




Thought's? @tech/a

 

[tech/a]

I'm thinking 15 million at .007c is $100K turnover. Average around $1000 a day!
Not on my radar. Like trying to anticipate where a Fly on Cocain is going to land!

 

[frugal.rock]

I believe it's either a reaction to Trump copper tariffs in the news, or leaky drilling results expected this month.

 

[farmerge]

I believe it's either a reaction to Trump copper tariffs in the news, or leaky drilling results expected this month.

Probably the former, as The Trumpet does tend to change his mindset at whim.