MichaelD
Not fooled by randomness
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- 7 December 2005
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Q: Why should you use a stop?
A1: Because you'll make more money more consistently by using a stop than by not.
A2: Because you'll preserve your capital whilst you're learning how to trade.
Q: But I traded XYZ and was stopped out only to see it go sky high afterwards!
A: Stops do that sometimes. However, stops also protect you from a stock which keeps going down. The protective effect on your capital outweighs the whipsaw effect many times over. You can always re-enter a rebounding stock. You can't exit a stock in freefall in hindsight.
Q: What's the best stop?
A: There is no perfect stop, just as there is no perfect entry. A stop which is too close to the price action will take profits quickly, but will suffer from frequent whipsawing. A stop which is too far away from the price action will give back too much profit before exiting a trade.
Q: Aw c'mon, what's the best stop?
A: Your stop strategy determines your trading frequency. Are you a long term trend follower? Use a wide stop. Are you a trader who wants to hold for days/a few weeks? Use a tight stop. As a hint for new traders, your best chance at surviving is to learn to trade longer time frames first, and then consider shortening your average holding time.
ducati916 said:MichaelD
On the surface, [A1] would seem to be a reasonable premise.
However, the premise only holds true if; the system [methodology] is profitable in real time. If the methodology proves to be a failure, then of course, it will prove to be false.
Premise A2 is also false [assuming for the moment a losing methodology]. Correctly stated, it will possibly take longer to lose your capital utilizing a stoploss strategy.
Again, an assumption, [pending evidence of the net effect of stoploss whipsaws] that this is in point of fact the case. An issue that can arise in regards to re-entry, is the psychological difficulty encountered in re-entering a stock [sometimes within minutes if you daytrade] of a stock that has just caused you a loss.
The closer the stop, the higher [determinatively] the likelihood of the stoploss being activated. This increased stoploss activity carries psychological consequences for the active trader.
Conversely, stoplosses that are quantitatively too far from the price action, carry position sizing, %loss/trade, implications that can undermine an otherwise robust trading plan.
As a thread teaser, to stimulate discussion, I have no problem with the above statement. As a recommendation, or catch-all strategy, it is fraught with problems. One of which is linking the element of time, with price, without any logical or correlative evidence.
The point Michael is making is at WORSE a stop will keep you in the game (By preserving Initial Capital). longer.
Stop placement is a little understood and rarley taught (Infact I havent seen anything other than rudimentary stop placement and position sizing discussed anywhere including books). Both Initial stop and Trailing stops. Timeframes need to be considered as does the style of trading.,Fundamental,Technical,Swing trading,Support and Resistance reversal,Pattern trading,Breakouts---the list goes on.
Quote:
The closer the stop, the higher [determinatively] the likelihood of the stoploss being activated. This increased stoploss activity carries psychological consequences for the active trader.
This is a trader problem not a stop issue.
Its often thought that the 2 reasons for stops are
(1) To minimise loss
(2) In the case of purpose placed Trailing Stops--To maximise profit.
Id like to add a third to the discussion. With respect to Placement. Of both an Initial and OR a Trailing Stop loss.
(3) Minimising LOST OPPORTUNITY---refered to as opportunity cost.
Duc---Do I detect a mellowing indeed perhaps an acceptance for a place in trading for stops??
It's Snake Pliskin said:Tech described the CORRECT usage of stops as an art.
I would say avoiding the manipulators is the art.
What about profit taking stops vs trailing stops? Care to comment?
i.e. you either accept that you were wrong about a trade and cut your loss short, or you accept that it is time to close the trade and bank your profits.
Q: But I traded XYZ and was stopped out only to see it go sky high afterwards!
A: Stops do that sometimes. However, stops also protect you from a stock which keeps going down. The protective effect on your capital outweighs the whipsaw effect many times over. You can always re-enter a rebounding stock. You can't exit a stock in freefall in hindsight.
There are lots of ways to achieve this outcome. Stops are the most concrete way for beginners to start down this path.
The stoploss as a tool within the stock-market, and technical trading in particular blunted the quantitative, and introduced a highly qualitative element due to, in a pack of cards, the total number of cards are known, thus as cards are played, the probabilities of various hands can be calculated. In the stock-market, the variables remain unknown, thus probabilities are far more difficult to calculate.
This leads directly to the problem of *where* to place the stop.
How strong in terms of probability is the set-up [support/resistance as an example] and thus how tight or loosely can the stop be placed?
The manipulators.
An end-of-day stop is one marked on your chart but not placed in market. You look at the day's price action after the close and decide whether to close the trade the next day.
Herein lies the problem.
Stoplosses tell you nothing about the security.
They tell you nothing about whether your analysis was correct, or incorrect.
As soon as you attach an emotion to a stoploss [right/wrong] you are mis-using the theory.
I can think of two or three ways.
All of them are superior to stoplosses.
However, as you broached the subject, you can expand the discussion if you so care.
tech - thanks for going to the trubel of explaining stop losses so thoroughly - whether or not I agree loltech/a said:God you guys so much to cover!!!
Setting a stop like this based on a stock's daily range is not new and indeed one excellent way to set a stop - but not necessarily so close to the daily trading range. You're approximately describing Average True Range which is a measure of recent stock volatility, and setting it this close would have something like a 30% chance (from memory) of being stopped out by random price movement. Will post more on a few popular stops including ATR soon.constable said:Is this something new (probably)or has it been done b4 ?
tech/a said:In AUZ's case the obvious stop is 1 tick below last Thursdays low..066
Risk is .007.or 72000 shares (by the way the $500 would need to be the trade risk not the portfolio risk or Portfolio heat.) This would be my way using Bar analysis.
Tech,tech/a said:With all due respect your work in progress is a great example of failure to implement a stop. (Yes I understand your methodology---and yes You know I think your snafoood re making 30% a year).
By simply taking a 10% stop in your trades your profit would be dramatically different and your opportunity to allocate funds into working stocks IE profitable----would be dramatically enhanced.You have massive funds chewing up the profit gained in 40% of your trades.Its not working for you!
The benchmark T/T has achieved its 30% gains already for the year with a few stops along the way. Sure its open profit as your have open loses.
If both portfolio's were sold Monday you have a nett return of 1.95%---- I 30% plus a bit.
In my case and Michaels there is definately a quantitive known when applying a stop to a trading system.The results will be markedly different relative to the stop placement.Using T/T as the example stop placement from 10% of initial purchase to 20% will decrease number of times stopped.It increases nett profit.Increases Drawdown and Gives anything BUT a smooth equity curve.
Cutting it to 5 % decreases everything but the number of times stopped and smooths the curve.In the end a balance is found I choose 10% as its easy but 8% is the optimum.
The stop itself has nothing to do with the analysis and everything to do with Initial capital preservation, and maximisation of opportunity.
Again they dont tell you that its wrong or right they are simply a line in the sand where YOU the analysis says at that point I no longer feel my analysis is valid on this move. See my AIM stop at 21.5c on that thread.The stop says nothing but price at 21.5c will say something to me. Price action beyond my sell if it comes to that will have no interest for me,other than possible further opportunity to do it all again. If it goes to sleep then I lose interest very quickly.
All of them are superior to stoplosses.
However, as you broached the subject, you can expand the discussion if you so care.
I lookforward to these Duc,when your able to share. Im certain you'll have loads of stats.
With all due respect your work in progress is a great example of failure to implement a stop. (Yes I understand your methodology---and yes You know I think your snafoood re making 30% a year).
By simply taking a 10% stop in your trades your profit would be dramatically different and your opportunity to allocate funds into working stocks IE profitable----would be dramatically enhanced.You have massive funds chewing up the profit gained in 40% of your trades.Its not working for you!
By simply taking a 10% stop in your trades your profit would be dramatically different and your opportunity to allocate funds into working stocks IE profitable----would be dramatically enhanced.You have massive funds chewing up the profit gained in 40% of your trades.Its not working for you!
The benchmark T/T has achieved its 30% gains already for the year with a few stops along the way. Sure its open profit as your have open loses.
If both portfolio's were sold Monday you have a nett return of 1.95%---- I 30% plus a bit.
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