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- 27 April 2006
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Wonder if it is ever possible for Share Trading Analyst to ever catch up with Thoroughbred Racing Weight Ratings Analyst (Ratings).
Until Don Scott unleashed his Weight Ratings the Thoroughbred Racing scene was dominated, like Share Trading is now by SYSTEMS built around past results and like S/T systems some were very successful -- but for only a limited time. Once the conditions changed under which the system was built then it would fail. With the introduction of computers the system builders, as with ST, now went balistic with new 20+ year databases and long term cycles, but as in the past all eventually failed.
Share Analysts would seem to be at the same stage as these system builders were 20 years ago.
What Scott did was to give each class of race a weight rating -- so a country maiden might be rated at 40kg, whilst a top class open city handicap would be rated at 60kg. This gave you a direct line for rating todays race field.
Basically for eg:
The top weight: No. 1
Won a race rated at 60kg carrying 55kg
A modest win gives a additional 1kg for that race.
= 60 - 5 +1 = 56kg
Second top weight: No. 2
3rd in a race rated at 55 kg carrying 60kg
A close third gives an additional +1kg
= 55 +5 +1 = 61kg
In todays race because No. 1 has won it is penalised by the handicapper 3kg.
No. 2 goes down 3kg because it only placed.
No. 1 Rating = 56. Weight to carry 58kg = 2kg disadvantage.
No. 2 Rating = 61. Weight to carry 57kg = 4Kg advantage.
Rating the field one would then be able to come up with fair odds.
So where is our yet to be discovered Don Scott of Share Analysts??
Whatever he/she comes up with, if like Scott, it is starring us in the face yet unthought of until then.
Just some food for thought
Cheers
Until Don Scott unleashed his Weight Ratings the Thoroughbred Racing scene was dominated, like Share Trading is now by SYSTEMS built around past results and like S/T systems some were very successful -- but for only a limited time. Once the conditions changed under which the system was built then it would fail. With the introduction of computers the system builders, as with ST, now went balistic with new 20+ year databases and long term cycles, but as in the past all eventually failed.
Share Analysts would seem to be at the same stage as these system builders were 20 years ago.
What Scott did was to give each class of race a weight rating -- so a country maiden might be rated at 40kg, whilst a top class open city handicap would be rated at 60kg. This gave you a direct line for rating todays race field.
Basically for eg:
The top weight: No. 1
Won a race rated at 60kg carrying 55kg
A modest win gives a additional 1kg for that race.
= 60 - 5 +1 = 56kg
Second top weight: No. 2
3rd in a race rated at 55 kg carrying 60kg
A close third gives an additional +1kg
= 55 +5 +1 = 61kg
In todays race because No. 1 has won it is penalised by the handicapper 3kg.
No. 2 goes down 3kg because it only placed.
No. 1 Rating = 56. Weight to carry 58kg = 2kg disadvantage.
No. 2 Rating = 61. Weight to carry 57kg = 4Kg advantage.
Rating the field one would then be able to come up with fair odds.
So where is our yet to be discovered Don Scott of Share Analysts??
Whatever he/she comes up with, if like Scott, it is starring us in the face yet unthought of until then.
Just some food for thought
Cheers