Silver price discussion and analysis

Worth reading for those interested in silver:

The Sell-Off In Gold & Silver Is Strictly In The Paper Markets​

Comex futures and ETFs​

Dave Kranzler
Apr 05, 2025


I get irritated when I see social media and Wall St “experts,” along with the MSM, refer to price plunges in the precious metals sector - like that which as occurred over yesterday (April 3rd) and today (April 4th) - as if actual gold and silver are being dumped by investors. A colleague sent me today’s market commentary from one of the Wall St banks: “the safe-haven metals are seeing more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation.”

Let’s be clear about this: no large holder is dumping physical gold and silver bars. The sell-off is the product of managed money - hedge funds, CTAs and other institutional pools of capital - puking their egregiously big long positions in Comex futures while the banks sit back and ring the cash register as they cover their egregiously large short positions. In a market environment like the last two days, hedge funds dump everything they are long to avoid big margin calls while CTAs unload longs into the downward momentum and go short.

If anything, the price-slam triggered in the futures market will likely stimulate an enormous amount of buying from the east, particularly the Indians who tend to step aside when the price is running higher like it has since mid-March. But they soon will return to the trough and start feeding hungrily on the lower prices.

I don’t know when this plunge in prices will subside. In part it will depend on when the stock market sell-off subsides, which may not happen for a while. On the other hand, I believe that what is developing in the markets is similar to 2008. Without question a credit crisis is unfolding, though it’s been covered-up by the Fed, which has been pumping M2 up to the previous all-time high since the beginning of 2024. With the “strong economy” narrative in effect, the Fed/Treasury needs a cover-story in order to fire up the printing press to prevent the balance sheets of the big banks from melting down. A severe sell-off in the stock market was the recipe in 2008 and 2020.

If this unfolds similar to 2008, at some point the precious metals sector will diverge positively from the stock market:



The chart above shows gold vs the SPX from 2007 to 2010. As the stock market started its final leg lower in late October 2008, the precious metals sector began to diverge positively. This divergence lasted until March 2009, when the stock market began to recover. The mining stocks outperformed everything. GDX more than doubled between October 2008 and year-end.

I don’t know how this plays out short term but the precious metals sector is getting technically oversold, particularly silver which plunged below its 200 dma today. I’m guessing there’s some more short-term pain ahead. But, at some point, the big physical buyers will begin buying physical gold and silver with a vengeance, which in turn will push the prices of gold and silver higher, followed by the miners.

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greggles said:

Worth reading for those interested in silver:

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Its always been in the paper markets, and unless there is a fundamental change, will continue to do so.
The paper players like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan et al have been allowed to get away with dictating the price using financial derivatives for the past 20 years.
What or who is going to stop them?
Mick

In 2025, the short tenor silver lease rate in London surged from near 0% to 6.5% , initially dropped to 3% after the Trump tariff announcement and is now starting to climb again. On April 10, 2025 the 1-month London silver lease rate stood at 3.8% according to Rob Gottlieb.

The shortage of silver can also be seen in silver’s price structure on the CME COMEX where the silver cash price is surging higher past the active month (May) traded futures price.

When the cash price surges higher than the futures price, this is termed ‘backwardation’ and is a signal that market participants increasingly want physical metal NOW and are willing to pay for it as opposed to waiting a few weeks.

In a word, shortage.

So much for the rush for silver delivery in 2025 being driven purely by fear that Trump would tariff silver bars delivered from London.

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Figure 1 - Cash Silver Price Minus 2nd Futures Price (Currently May 2025); Source: GoldChartsRUs.com

The market shortage of silver can also be seen in Figure 2 below in the snap-back in the cash silver price from the initial silver tariff exclusion panic sell-off down to $28 /oz. to now back above $32 /oz. over the past 6 trading days.

Figure 2 - Cash Silver Price Bounce Back To $32 /oz.; Source: TradingView.com

We have signals from both the London and New York silver markets that there is an increasing shortage of physical silver available for delivery.

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jog on
duc

Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, is facing a peculiar problem these days: he has too much cash.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an eye-watering $325 billion in dry powder, a record high. Historically, Buffett has always been eager to deploy capital when the odds are in his favor. But today, even he admits he’s struggling to find value in this overvalued market.
Which leads to a fascinating question: could Buffett turn to silver, or even silver miners, as a way to put that cash to work?
To answer that, let’s take a short trip back to the late 1990s when Buffett made one of his more unconventional moves.

Buffett’s Big Silver Bet in the 1990s​

In 1997 and 1998, through Berkshire Hathaway’s General Re subsidiary, Buffett bought about 130 million ounces of physical silver. That’s roughly 20% of the world’s known above-ground supply at the time.

His rationale was Classic Buffett: supply and demand.

Silver had been beaten down for years, with central banks selling their reserves and industrial demand remaining relatively stable. Buffett saw the price, around $4.40 per ounce, as disconnected from the underlying fundamentals.

Buffett’s mentor Benjamin Graham once told him, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

He figured silver’s actual value would eventually be “weighed” and the price would rise accordingly.

Of course, Buffett was right. Silver prices did move higher, peaking around $7 per ounce in the late 90s. Depending on the price Buffett closed the trade, he made anywhere from $208 million to $328 million.

However, the trade attracted regulatory scrutiny. The CFTC investigated whether Buffett had cornered the market. While they found no wrongdoing, the experience likely left Buffett with a bad taste in his mouth.

How 1998 Relates to 2025​

Today, silver finds itself in a similar situation.

Industrial demand for silver is surging, especially for solar panels, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics. Yet mine supply is struggling to keep up. Add in a general underinvestment in new mining projects, and you’ve got a classic supply-demand imbalance brewing.

Meanwhile, institutional ownership of silver remains very low. Hedge funds, pension funds, and endowments aren’t piling into silver the way they are with equities or even gold.

In short, the fundamentals look tight, and the market doesn’t fully reflect that yet, just like in the late 1990s.



Silver, from January 1997 to March 1998; Credit: StockCharts.com

In the late 90s, silver was trapped in a narrow band before Buffett’s buying helped nudge it higher. Today, silver has been rangebound, first between $20.50 and $25.50, and second from $27.50 to $34.50. This is despite booming demand and constrained supply.


It’s not history repeating, but it’s history rhyming.

Why Buffett Probably Won’t Buy Silver Miners​

As tempting as the setup is, there are a few big reasons why Buffett likely won’t be backing up the truck into silver miners.

First, Buffett loves businesses with durable competitive advantages, or “moats,” predictable earnings, and strong management. Mining is a tricky business — costs fluctuate wildly, mines get depleted, and governments change royalty schemes overnight. All of that makes mining an unpredictable venture, something Buffett typically shuns.

Second, Buffett experienced the impact of commodity price swings firsthand with silver in the 1990s and again with oil, when he invested heavily in ConocoPhillips just before the 2008 crash. Those experiences taught him that commodities are hard to predict and even harder to control.

Third, Buffett is 94 years old. He’s thinking more than ever about Berkshire’s legacy and stability. A big, volatile bet on miners just doesn’t fit that narrative.

What About Buffett’s Lieutenants?​

However, it’s worth noting that Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, the two managers Buffett handpicked to steer Berkshire’s massive investment portfolio, have more flexibility.

They each control approximately $20 billion in assets and have demonstrated a willingness to venture into tech, fintech, and other sectors Buffett has traditionally avoided.

Could they see an asymmetric bet in silver miners? Absolutely.
Especially if they view it not as a commodity play, but as a long-term investment in critical metals needed for the alleged green transition.
Companies like Wheaton Precious Metals or Franco-Nevada, which operate on a royalty and streaming model rather than directly mining, might be more appealing. These businesses generate predictable cash flows without the operational headaches of digging metal out of the ground.

Wrap Up​

While the silver setup today echoes the opportunity Buffett spotted in the late 1990s, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Berkshire Hathaway dive into silver miners in a meaningful way.

Buffett himself might pass. The “official” chances? I’d peg it at less than 5%.

But don’t count out Berkshire’s next generation. In a world where tangible assets are becoming more valuable — and where silver’s importance to technology and energy is only growing — a small, strategic allocation to royalty-based silver plays could quietly find its way into the Berkshire portfolio.

For now, Buffett will likely continue to do what he’s always done best: wait patiently for the perfect pitch.
Because, as he once said, “The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot.”

And if silver miners aren’t quite there yet, rest assured, Buffett is still watching… and waiting.


jog on
duc

I subscribed today for a 1mo. deal on Seeking Alpha a US stock advice mob ... $USD 5 , the Premium version. I often see them giving quotes and suggestions on IBKR the broker I use for US trading. They are pretty negative on Silver in the short to medium term but positive long term mainly because of it's industrial uses.

Silver is at a high of the past few months and as I'm not that familiar with it I thought I'd ask if any members have thoughts on it's direction. One or two commentators were positive on silver if Trump's tariff's didn't fall the wrong way for the metal.

I've traded SVL and EPTMAG in the past, always losing, sometimes entering at a low for silver which fell further and sometimes at a high where it then became THE high.

Maybe me and silver are destined not to be a good combo. How do members feel about Silver this month? I did read somewhere that June is a particularly good month for long silver trading. This was last year. I even put it in my diary and it popped up today.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

I subscribed today for a 1mo. deal on Seeking Alpha a US stock advice mob ... $USD 5 , the Premium version. I often see them giving quotes and suggestions on IBKR the broker I use for US trading. They are pretty negative on Silver in the short to medium term but positive long term mainly because of it's industrial uses.

Silver is at a high of the past few months and as I'm not that familiar with it I thought I'd ask if any members have thoughts on it's direction. One or two commentators were positive on silver if Trump's tariff's didn't fall the wrong way for the metal.

I've traded SVL and EPTMAG in the past, always losing, sometimes entering at a low for silver which fell further and sometimes at a high where it then became THE high.

Maybe me and silver are destined not to be a good combo. How do members feel about Silver this month? I did read somewhere that June is a particularly good month for long silver trading. This was last year. I even put it in my diary and it popped up today.

gg

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Up nearly 5% tonight, so far. Might be breaking up.

It's been a pretty solid run since breaking that side-downward trend around $25 early last year. Volatile, but generally heading up.

Bought, sold and bought ETPMAG over the past 2 years just expecting it to follow gold eventually. Still waiting for the gold-silver ratio to go back to longer term averages. It was way under recently at about 110 so either gold had to come back or silver go up. Backing silver to go up.

Sean K said:

Up nearly 5% tonight, so far. Might be breaking up.

It's been a pretty solid run since breaking that side-downward trend around $25 early last year. Volatile, but generally heading up.

Bought, sold and bought ETPMAG over the past 2 years just expecting it to follow gold eventually. Still waiting for the gold-silver ratio to go back to longer term averages. It was way under recently at about 110 so either gold had to come back or silver go up. Backing silver to go up.

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I'm not so bullish on silver as I am with gold, but the chart is definitely getting very interesting. In the last few hours silver has smashed all resistance levels of the last 10 years other than the 10 year high itself a little under $35. We're on the edge of seeing if it will do a triple top and fall back to a previous support level or race up - if it does decisively beat $35 it'll be in a good position to challenge the all time high of around $50 (which would be another setup for a potential triple top and I don't think it can beat that one).

I certainly wouldn't be holding right now and would be selling out right now if I was, but if I was a silver bug I'd have my eyes glued to the screen ready to buy if it does break $35, with a very obvious target of $50.

Ignore the green lines on my chart, the main important thing is the triple top setup. If you zoom out to show the chart going back to the 1970s you see the obvious $50 resistance.

Silver only needs to hold above this weekly close level at around 34 bucks for a 7 month sideways breakout. Maybe it needs to be tested as support for confirmation, but it's a good start.

All the best with silver @Sean K . You silver guys have waited and deserve a break up out of this range. I havent checked any charts yet. 14C here with an unforgiving southerly trying to blow my balls off.

gg

Not quite there yet @Sean K , but it looks promising.



gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Not quite there yet @Sean K , but it looks promising.

View attachment 200965

gg

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This is breaking up on the daily and arguably has already broken up on the weekly.

But, silver has teased me before, so I'm not counting chickens.

I've bought in anticipation of an eventual break up due simply to the gold/silver connection and the silver/gold ratio being out of whack.

If silver does break this level, there's not much between here and $50.

Sheesh
Before wall street opens its eyes
silver
Pushing 36

Better go to specsavers or stop drinking
What am i looking at???

It's in the Herald Sun business columns now so the easy money has probably been made.



For decades, silver has been the loyal shadow of gold, tracing its movements with remarkable precision when adjusted for inflation. This enduring partnership has produced a powerful correlation that traders can’t afford to ignore. Whenever gold has surged, silver has inevitably played catch-up and often with breathtaking speed.

Today, this long-term relationship is once again flashing a major buy signal. The inflation-adjusted ratio between gold and silver is now at a level that has historically preceded massive silver rallies. But that’s just one piece of the puzzle.



Just as fishermen know when the fish are biting, seasoned traders understand that markets and asset classes also have their seasons. In 2022, I used these same seasonal patterns to identify the bottom in gold before its major breakout. It bottomed the very next day and has nearly doubled since then. Now, the same setup is coming together for silver.

Decades of data show that silver tends to bottom out in June before launching a powerful move in July. If past patterns repeat, silver’s typical “rocket” ignition is just around the corner.

With that seasonality in mind, the countdown is on. Traders and investors now have at most a month before silver’s breakout likely accelerates. If silver clears the key psychological level of $35, something that appears highly likely, expect a swift, forceful surge.

Should that silver price retrace below $36.00 and stay below it's range under $35.80-$35.90 until eot tomorrow am in NY one can forget about a bull for silver. On the other hand testing $36.00 a few times and then moving up will be great for the long suffering silver followers on ASF. Wishing you the best but I'll not be following. I can never time silver, so it probably means it's heading skywards.



gg

David Awful is sometimes very hard to listen to because of his umming and arring and stuttering, but he contains it OK in this video.

The US dollar is tanking, government bonds are on the nose, equities are looking very shaky. Is it any wonder precious metals and Bitcoin are experiencing a bull run?

Is there anywhere else to go right now? Any suggestions?

I can't see the below trend changing any time soon. The divergence is clearly accelerating.

Does anyone else see a 45-50 year Cup and Handle on silver price breaking up?

Some discussion on silver and potential M&A.



The world’s central banks have been soaking up gold as faith in other traditional reserve assets like the US treasuries and the dollar have come under the pump. Central banks don’t buy silver.

That’s why silver was left behind, initially at least. Silver’s other problem compared with gold is that it is also an industrial metal.

So while gold has been responding to fears of economic turmoil brought on by the tariff war, silver has had to struggle against perceptions that its industrial demand could suffer from an economic slowdown.

But here we are with silver’s monetary appeal finally overcoming fears it could be hit by economic concerns.

The metal has recently moved to 13-year highs and was last quoted at $US36.35/oz. That compares with last (calendar) year’s average of $US28/oz and silver’s starting point for 2025 of $US29/oz.

Bank of America and others are now forecasting $US40/oz silver (and $US4,000/oz gold!) for late 2025/early 2026. Again like others, it reckons the brake on silver from industrial demand concerns has been overdone.

As a result, attention swings over to silver’s haven qualities, setting the scene for a catch-up with the gold price.

What is not at issue is silver’s on-going mine supply deficit.

According to an industry survey commissioned by the Washington-based Silver Institute, global silver demand in 2024 exceeded supply (1.16 billion ounces) for the fourth consecutive year.

The resulting structural market deficit of 148.9 million ounces in 2024 took the combined deficit for 2021-2024 to 678Moz, equivalent to about 10 months of global mine supply.

Prepared by the London-based precious metals consultancy Metals Focus, the survey found the green economy and the rise of artificial intelligence powered up industrial demand for silver to a record 680.5 Moz.

“Demand continued to benefit from structural gains linked to the green economy, including investment in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification, and photovoltaic applications,” Metals Focus said. “Demand was further boosted by end-uses related to artificial intelligence, which drove growth in consumer electronics shipments.”

However, silver demand could face challenges in 2025 from technology shifts reducing silver loadings in the PV segment, and the broader economy.

“The impact of US tariffs will be a key risk to silver demand this year. An extended period of elevated tariffs, or a further escalation of global trade wars, could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and sharply lower global GDP growth,” it said.

“These will weigh on industrial, jewellery, and silverware demand, though physical investment could benefit from rising safe-haven purchases.’’ The latter point is what has given silver its recent push.

The price rise has been seized upon by the silver bulls who argue that the metal is poised for a major breakout and that if the long-term 60:1 gold-to-silver ratio is any guide – it is currently 91 - silver prices have a lot of juice in the tank to run higher still.

Silver M & A:

There is a long history of stepped up merger and acquisition activity preceding a breakout in metal prices to the upside.

And as it is, the recent step-up in silver prices has coincided with a step-up in M & A activity in the silver space, mainly in the North American market.

ASX and London-listed Adriatic Metals (ASX:ADT) is the local example, with its market cap taking off to $1.5 billion in response to last month’s revelation that it was in takeover talks with Canada’s $C3.37 billion Dundee Precious Metals.

The potential takeover comes as Adriatic continues to ramp up annual production at its silver- heavy Vares precious and base metals project in Serbia to a world-scale 20 million ounces of silver equivalent.

There has been no update on Dundee’s intention since the May 21 revelation but under the UK Takeover code it is obliged to put up or shut up by 5:00 PM (London time) on June 17.

Last October there was the $US2.1 billion takeover of Toronto-listed MAG Silver Corp by New York-listed Pan American, and more recently New York-listed Coeur Mining bid an agreed $US1.7 billion for Toronto-listed SilverCrest Metals.

Throw the potential bid for Adriatic into the mix and it makes for close to $A7.5 billion in silver corporate activity.

There is no reason to think that the M & A step-up won’t be extended to ASX silver plays which compared with their North American peers, stand as being seriously undervalued, with or without their recent share price kicks in response to silver’s price spurt.

Silver powered through the 37 level.
Its all going to plan.
Mick