tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,528
- Reactions
- 6,827
Re: Developing a System to Trade Live
OK
Ive decided it wont kill me to post on one thread.
This topic interests me and there are enough here showing interest and persisting so if its OK with you I'll se this exercise out.
Ive made headway but still away from completion but I think youll find the direction I have taken as very interesting.
Decided to tackle what I feel are the hardest to trade---the pennies.
My universe is (Currently as its a work in progress) stock which trade under 20c---Ive veiwed many charts and these appear to me to be the ones which have the capacity to fly +100% in the shortest time.
For Entries I like breakouts in particular the FIRST or SECOND breakout of a move after a prolonged accumulation period which was preceeded by a fall---usually a dramatic fall. I'm still playing with days prior to breakout,I'm using 70 days and have played with 180 and 250.There are idiosycronies with breakouts which warrent further discussion and examples shown on charts---but not yet.
Chart 1 shows the "Ideal" entry.Testing is not currently being limited to this entry as to do so would cut back the number of trades dramatically---however if profitability is compromised by not filtering---guess what I'll filter!
For Exits
I like a combination.As they are so fast moving I like to use either an AND or an OR condition in the exit.My initial eyeball observations show me that a single exit condition wont cut it.I need at least 2 to confirm time to EXIT.(I'm actually using Andrews TOX trade as a live exit example to try out---CHART 2 is the chart I private mailed Andrew showing a few ideas.)
The 4 exits I like to combine are.
(1) Simply the NEAR TREND
(2) Near confirmed support
(3) Parabolic
(4) A custom close fitting M/A.
I submit here the Metastock code I'm using to get the feel and determine possible parameters BEFORE I go to the testing phase.I want to have a good idea that there will be a method which has atleast a chance for positive numbers.
Already I see 2 problems with coding so someone maybe able to help out here.
(1) Metastock cant code trendlines in its basic form we need someone to write a DLL to allow this I have some contacts and if necessary will buy it and offer it to those who want it at a dispersal cost.
(2) I havent written a code for a close support line.This is very important from what I see so far.
I also have some code which makes sure you take the FIRST signal will worry about that for testing as we go on.(Ive placed it in an EXPERT(Those with M/S know what I mean))
So far stops dont seem necessary.
The tightness of exits seem to limit losses but there will be more losses than wins.Seems to have a good expectancy but I havent run it yet.
Anyway thats where I am so far.
FORMULAS
EXPLORATION TO FIND PROSPECTS---this one is for stocks that broke out in the last 63 days ---can be altered to X days.
Alert(HHVBars(H,70)=0,63) AND Fml("liquidity")>100000 AND C<.20
Ive set liquidity at $100K dont see this as a problem.
Paste below into indicator builder.
{"liquidity" } Mov(V * C,21,S)
Custom Moving Average 4 times smoothed{ ©Copyright 2005 John Rowland}
Mov(Mov(Mov(Mov(Mov(C,2,E),4,E),4,E),4,E),4,E)
{Parabolic Arc}
Z:=Input("Periods",2,250,4);
Mov(SAR( 0.02,0.20 ),Z,E)
To the charts
and feedback welcome.
I'll be back again when I have something more to input.
OK
Ive decided it wont kill me to post on one thread.
This topic interests me and there are enough here showing interest and persisting so if its OK with you I'll se this exercise out.
Ive made headway but still away from completion but I think youll find the direction I have taken as very interesting.
Decided to tackle what I feel are the hardest to trade---the pennies.
My universe is (Currently as its a work in progress) stock which trade under 20c---Ive veiwed many charts and these appear to me to be the ones which have the capacity to fly +100% in the shortest time.
For Entries I like breakouts in particular the FIRST or SECOND breakout of a move after a prolonged accumulation period which was preceeded by a fall---usually a dramatic fall. I'm still playing with days prior to breakout,I'm using 70 days and have played with 180 and 250.There are idiosycronies with breakouts which warrent further discussion and examples shown on charts---but not yet.
Chart 1 shows the "Ideal" entry.Testing is not currently being limited to this entry as to do so would cut back the number of trades dramatically---however if profitability is compromised by not filtering---guess what I'll filter!
For Exits
I like a combination.As they are so fast moving I like to use either an AND or an OR condition in the exit.My initial eyeball observations show me that a single exit condition wont cut it.I need at least 2 to confirm time to EXIT.(I'm actually using Andrews TOX trade as a live exit example to try out---CHART 2 is the chart I private mailed Andrew showing a few ideas.)
The 4 exits I like to combine are.
(1) Simply the NEAR TREND
(2) Near confirmed support
(3) Parabolic
(4) A custom close fitting M/A.
I submit here the Metastock code I'm using to get the feel and determine possible parameters BEFORE I go to the testing phase.I want to have a good idea that there will be a method which has atleast a chance for positive numbers.
Already I see 2 problems with coding so someone maybe able to help out here.
(1) Metastock cant code trendlines in its basic form we need someone to write a DLL to allow this I have some contacts and if necessary will buy it and offer it to those who want it at a dispersal cost.
(2) I havent written a code for a close support line.This is very important from what I see so far.
I also have some code which makes sure you take the FIRST signal will worry about that for testing as we go on.(Ive placed it in an EXPERT(Those with M/S know what I mean))
So far stops dont seem necessary.
The tightness of exits seem to limit losses but there will be more losses than wins.Seems to have a good expectancy but I havent run it yet.
Anyway thats where I am so far.
FORMULAS
EXPLORATION TO FIND PROSPECTS---this one is for stocks that broke out in the last 63 days ---can be altered to X days.
Alert(HHVBars(H,70)=0,63) AND Fml("liquidity")>100000 AND C<.20
Ive set liquidity at $100K dont see this as a problem.
Paste below into indicator builder.
{"liquidity" } Mov(V * C,21,S)
Custom Moving Average 4 times smoothed{ ©Copyright 2005 John Rowland}
Mov(Mov(Mov(Mov(Mov(C,2,E),4,E),4,E),4,E),4,E)
{Parabolic Arc}
Z:=Input("Periods",2,250,4);
Mov(SAR( 0.02,0.20 ),Z,E)
To the charts
and feedback welcome.
I'll be back again when I have something more to input.