i have a differing view and strategy .. apart from wishing EVERYBODY a Merry Christmas , on that i absolutely agreeEnjoy the team collaboration at ASF and Merry Christmas @JohnDe .
I am cautiously optimistic for 2022. Corona is a gamble.
I am now 60 pc cash today from 38 pc cash . Could be a fatal error . Time will tell me in 2022.
Mate @divs4everi have a differing view and strategy .. apart from wishing EVERYBODY a Merry Christmas , on that i absolutely agree
i would rather my existing cash reserves was wisely invested , but special divs and M&A have decided to boost the cash reserves , anyway
i see a mess that stumbles on , but maybe i can hook a silver lining or several
good luck everybody
Nearing long term resistance:Looks quite likely that S32 will end the year at an all time monthly high with a big white monthly candle. There was a warning sign a couple of months back with the long upper wick but chart still looking strong. At some point I expect this stock to paricipate in a massive down move with the rest of the market but this is one I will be holding onto for the reflation and S32's long term prospects. If I were wanting to hold onto my current gains though I would be checking out the weekly and monthly charts each week/month as the price is not clear yet of the past top.
Based on past results I see the price as still a bit below fair value by my crude valuation approach does not benefit from any deep knowledge of the business. And S32 spent a year falling well below intrinsic value so it could happen again.
All Data Monthly
View attachment 134727
Apparently there is no wages growth, so that must be BS.S32 quarterly out shows how much inflationary pressures are affecting OZ companies.
The company had higher prices for both coal and Aluminium, which resulted in higher operating margins for those products.
This was offset by higher material prices, higher labour costs as well as scarce labour ,enegy costs as well as a number of adverse weather costs contributed to a higher than expected operating unit costs overall.
Mick
S32 quarterly out shows how much inflationary pressures are affecting OZ companies.
The company had higher prices for both coal and Aluminium, which resulted in higher operating margins for those products.
This was offset by higher material prices, higher labour costs as well as scarce labour ,enegy costs as well as a number of adverse weather costs contributed to a higher than expected operating unit costs overall.
Mick
The quote was from the Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor analyst.Do you have a link to that info? I couldn't find any reference to S32 claiming that inflation is their issue.
What I found out this morning is -
As well as releasing info that they produced less Aluminium, Silver, Lead and Coal
- The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact our operations and supply chains in different ways, across our global portfolio. We have seen an increase in case numbers and workforce restrictions in many of the jurisdictions in which we operate, impacting labour availability.
- Port congestion and tight global freight conditions continue to impact our supply chains, slowing the movement of inventory, most notably for our aluminium smelters in Southern Africa. While the resultant build in aluminium inventory during the December 2021 half year is expected to persist in the near term, we have and continue to establish alternative shipping solutions and points of dispatch to minimise the impact. We expect the working capital build to unwind once we realise the full benefit of our initiatives, and port congestion and general freight tightness is alleviated.
QUARTERLY REPORT
DECEMBER 2021
Listen to this from the 3:07 minute mare -
Much to my surprise, I had a call from Lincoln and there response was as follows:The quote was from the Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor analyst.
I am assuming that they attended a an analysts briefing, but have sent them off an email asking where they got the information from.
I will relay their response should I get one.
Mick
The next entry under Brazil Alumina,elevated caustic soda prices and freight rates are expected to result in Operating unit costs for the December 2021 half year being approximately 5% above our FY22 guidance (US$241/t). We expect higher caustic soda prices to persist in the June 2022 half year further impacting the refinery’s Operating unit costs.
under the Hillside Aluminium entrythe impact of elevated raw material input prices, in combination with the already realised volume impact of the bauxite unloader outage, is expected to result in Operating unit costs for the December 2021 half year being approximately 30% higher than the June 2021 half year (US$201/t).
The next entry is Mozal Aluminiumelevated raw material input costs and the smelter’s energy price linkage to the South Africa Producer Price Index are expected to result in an increase in Operating unit costs in the December 2021 half year (June 2021 half year: US$1,722/t) of approximately 10%.
Under the entry for Illawarra metallurgical coalelevated raw material input costs are expected to result in an increase in Operating unit costs in the December 2021 half year (June 2021 half year: US$1,818/t) of approximately 10%. As you read through them,
I could go and cut and past the rest, but we get the picture.Lower December 2021 half year production and sales volumes, and higher price-linked royalties arising from the significant increase in prices year to date, are expected to result in our Operating unit costs for the December 2021 half year being approximately 20% above our FY22 guidance (US$101/t). Updated FY22 Operating unit cost guidance will be provided in our financial results announcement for the December 2021 half year.
Much to my surprise, I had a call from Lincoln and there response was as follows:
"the smelter’s energy price linkage to the South Africa Producer Price Index"
I like theMuch to my surprise, I had a call from Lincoln and there response was as follows:
If you read the text underneath each of the operations, there is a consistent staement about increases in costs.
For instance , Under Worsley Aluminia,
The next entry under Brazil Alumina,
under the Hillside Aluminium entry
The next entry is Mozal Aluminium
Under the entry for Illawarra metallurgical coal
I could go and cut and past the rest, but we get the picture.
The cost increases vary from entity to entity, so I guess they will not be able to put a company wide value on the cost increases till the EOY report.
Their costs have gone up, which is what usually happens when you get inflation.
Mick
That's the sort of thing I've referred to in the Inflation thread.
Where a price goes up not because of underlying factors but simply because it's directly linked to and determined by PPI or CPI.
There are many such arrangements particularly with things such as energy, water supply, wages and so on and this won't be the only company affected.
Masses of copper in the pipeline (and silver too at their 100% Hermoza project)They are exploring for a lot of copper I suppose
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