This is the 5th time in 50 years that the Up Issues Ratio has been this oversold on a 5-, 10- and 21-day moving average basis while the S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average. There was some short-term weakness after several of them, but all of them were positive over the next 3-6 months. The dates were 7/28/75, 10/20/78, 3/7/80 and 12/11/80.
Besides today, there have been 17 days since 1960 that the Stock/Bond Ratio has exceeded -2.2 while the S&P was above its 200-day average. All 17 dates showed a positive return over the next 30 days, averaging +3.5%. The maximum loss over the next 30 days averaged -1.7% compared to a maximum gain that averaged +6.0%.
In the past 20 years, there have been 15 days when the 5- and 10-day Total Put/Call Ratio were this extreme. Over the next 30 days, the S&P 500 was positive after all 15 dates, averaging +5.9%. The maximum loss averaged -1.7% while the maximum gain averaged +6.5%. They all occurred in the past 5 years, and were scattered among four distinct time periods (April 2007, September 2007, March 2008 and September 2011).
The number of stock trading above their 40 day moving average has dropped from 87% to below 17%. That is a 70% point drop in just 13 days. That extreme overselling is almost always rewarded to the upside. 3/2009, 6/2010, 8/2011 even if temporary.
The following chart shows the S&P 500 Index average daily returns from.........
exactly what is the average man on the street thinking?
"Overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace," the central bank said on Wednesday in its latest "Beige Book" summary of business activity covering a period between early April and late May.
since the recession ended in June 2009, total U.S. debt has risen at the slowest pace since they began keeping records in the early 1950s. While Washington has taken on a lot of debt since then, the private sector has paid off, written off or dumped on the government almost as much.
As a share of the economy, debt has plunged as a consequence of rapid deleveraging by families, banks, nonfinancial businesses, and state and local governments. The ratio of total debt to gross domestic product has fallen from 3.73 times GDP to 3.36 times.
Cecchetti and his co-authors found that growth can be impaired once nonfinancial corporate debt hits about 90% of GDP, or when household debts hit 85% of GDP, or when public debts hit about 85%.
In the U.S., household debt has now fallen to 84% of GDP from a peak of 98%. Nonfinancial corporate debt has fallen to 77% from a peak of 83%. Financial sector debt has plunged from 123% of GDP to 89%. Public debt has risen to 89% from 56%.
Interesting summary of the S&P500 by Cramer based on Carolyn Boroden's analysis (Carolyn was a student of Robert Miner).
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/publi...-Jim-Cramer-Has-the-stock-market-bottomed.cfm
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary June reading of 74.1 -- the lowest level since December -- from 79.3 in May, according to Friday reports. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a June reading of 77.8, with weak jobs data and stock-market volatility more than offsetting lower gas prices. The sentiment gauge, which covers how consumers view their personal finances as well as business and buying conditions, averaged about 87 in the year before the most recent recession. Economists watch sentiment data to get a feel for the direction of consumer spending.
RT @BreakingNews: Russian ship carrying armed Russian troops is on its way to Syria to guard Russian assets, US mil officials tell @NBCNews
Rennie Yang @MarketTells
NYSE TICK low -768, highest low since January $$
Hamzei Put/call view ($ weighted)
View attachment 47451
explanation
http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/Following-the-Big-Players-Using-Dollar-Weighted-VIX-Put-Call/ba-p/2907
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Joules - tks for posting this.
Do you use a lot of Hamzei's stuff? I've been curious about his work. I've followed
him on Twitter for a while (wish he wouldn't tweet out his favourite youtube songs during mkt hours though LOL)
& what's your Twitter name (is that the right terminology ?)? PM if you prefer.
The Difference Between Obama's First Term And Bush's First Term...Chart
As you can see, under Obama, private employment snapped back much better than it did during Bush's first year.
State and local government employment, however, fell much harder under Obama than it did under Bush.
This is of course exactly the opposite of the big government socialist stereotype that the Obama economy is portrayed as
Bad News For Obama: Confidence In The Economy Is Plunging
Gallup's economic confidence has plummeted for the fourth straight week. The index now stands its lowest point since January, when high gas prices rocked Americans' confidence in the economy.
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