"Not required", "wasteful"...Planned transmission lines across Flinders Ranges adding risk of regional backlash and tainting the green image of geothermal - and wasteful exp on grid when not required.
Kennas is right, whatever you decide to invest in, you should do your own research and whenever you’re unsure about what you read, it may be helpful to write your queries here to see if anyone else can provide some clues.
What is geothermal energy? In simplistic terms, I believe it’s the recycle of hot water to generate steam to turn a turbine which generates electricity. I'm not an expert in this area but it sounds easy said than done!
• The requirement is to find heated granites beneath the "3 kms" of sediments.
• Water is pumped down a borehole into a hot rock source (200 °C and 280 °Water flows through a network of tiny fractures (either naturally occurring and/or by hydraulic stimulation of the natural system) and is rapidly heated to a high temperature by contact with the hot rock.
• Under pressure the heated water then returns to the surface via a production well located several hundred metres away from the original injection well.
• At the surface the superheated water is passed through a heat exchanger where most of the heat is extracted.
• The heat extracted from the water in turn heats a low boiling-point liquid, which boils, producing high-pressure steam used to drive electricity turbines.
• The surface heat exchanger is another closed-loop fluid system.
• The cooled water is then re-injected back down the injection borehole to be reheated and used again.
Hot rocks does look like the ‘flavour of the month’ but the spike in PTR’s share price appears to be driven by political news flow (whereby opposition leader Kevin Rudd's promise to give $50 million to the geothermal sector if elected) rather than the Spanish group’s stake which was only 1% (750,000) as part of the recent share placement. Reason is simply because a number of other geothermal stocks (GDR, TEY, GHT, and GRK) all shot up in June 2007. Coincidence? I think not!
However, it is once again speculation that renewable energy will be the next hot investment to chase, given the media attention to global warming and the upcoming Federal election. The good thing about Geothermal is that it can provide base load power and probably cheap to run. Apart from nuclear power (which has it's dangers) other forms of renewable energy can only provide intermittent energy. But Geothermal may have the risk of earthquakes as a result of fracturing the granites with high pressure water deep beneath the surface. This means that it will most likely be built somewhere far away from the city which means that it will be costly to connect to the grid to provide electricity. So, the commercialisation of a geothermal project is a very important step to ensure it is economically viable!
The last time I mentioned the word "speculation", a friend here known as "Resourceboom" said that investing in any company involves some degree of speculation on its future, obviously there is higher risk in companies not yet making money.
This is very true. So let's take a look at PTR. It is not making any money and currently has a loss at $2.1m in retained earnings. PTR looks likely to become Australia’s first commercial geothermal producer with a plan for 7.5MW of power in SA by the end of 2009. Subsequently, to 30MW and then a ramp up to 500 MW of base-load power over several years at a cost of ~$1bn (i.e. it will cost $2m per MW).
By the end of 2009 means 2-3 years from now and 500MW is therefore 10 years from now. Some brokers have valued GDY at $1m per MW and this means the 7.5MW is only worth $7.5m and include all the cash ($2.6m @ Mar Qtr + $6.3m from recent placement + $5m government grant + $30m JV), that is only 2/3 of the market capitalisation of the company (of $68m). So we are speculating on (1) success of the 7.5MW leading onto subsequent expansion to 500MW by 2015 (8 years from now). Also, the China, Spanish and European projects but no information on size of project has been published as yet.
Agree with Kennas that it is uncertain whether this leap in the share price is sustainable and eventually it will reach a saturation point but who knows where that point is at this stage. It all depends on the hype and "speculation" there is for PTR and that goes for all other geothermal stocks.
Having said that, there are 19 exploration companies (and apparently more expected to join) according to BRW and PTR ($1.17 and market cap of $68m) and GDY ($1.58 and market cap of $275m) appears to be the 2 leading companies. The deciding factor is who will get there first and whether PTR have the strong management and team to take it to commercialisation and reward shareholders that stuck around today.
Good management is a huge factor which is evident by GDY's share price fall in 2006 from $1.60 (Apr 06) to $0.60 (Aug 06) as a result of the resignation of founding director and MD.
If I were to invest in PTR, I would probably aim to hold them long term and not invest as much given the risks involved. Then keep a close eye on Paralana project (I think the technology is still to be proven in Australia) and monitor their spending, equity raisings (to avoid any dilution) and any management changes.
This is purely my opinion and I am not a financial adviser and cannot provide you with financial advice.
Good luck investing!
Hi paul,
Have just had "geothermal" pop into my head for no apparent reason!
10 year chart:
View attachment 51000
3 month chart:
View attachment 51001
Might be worth a punt!
Based on what?
Because the price has gone up?
Based on what?
Because the price has gone up?
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