Bears will eventually have their day, of course.
China's metals demand to grow even if US slows down: analysts
Rowan Callick, China correspondent | August 25, 2007
LONG-term believers in the China "stronger for longer" resource boom story wore smug smiles of satisfaction on Wednesday when BHP Billiton CEO Chip Goodyear said demand from China and India would more than cancel out any likely contraction in the US economy.
They already knew that about 90 per cent of China's industrial production is actually going for domestic consumption and that while America is China's top market, in 2006 it still only bought 21 per cent of China's exports.
They also knew that the proportion is slowly declining.
Statistics from influential China database CEIC and UBS show that a contraction of 10 percentage points in US imports from China would only cut 0.2 per cent from China's gross domestic product. In the first half of this year, China's economy grew 11.5 per cent. Despite two recent interest rate rises, its stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen continue to surge.
Bush Tries to Calm Markets With Mortgage Plan
Reuters | 31 Aug 2007 | 02:54 PM
President Bush speaks during a news conference at the White House Friday.
President Bush tried to calm financial market turmoil from the credit crisis by announcing proposals intended to prevent homeowners from defaulting on risky mortgages.
Well, when I started this thread I was shot down pretty quickly, even if I was actually thinking the bears were going to have their day.
There were a lot of 'perhaps's' listed in the first post, and 'perhaps' some of them are actually coming to fruition.
Perhaps the US are going to engineer a way out of what seems like a real pile of financial poo.
XAO cracking 6200, and DOW leaping last night means the break will be supported IMO. It's not a 100%, in the bag, continuation of the bull, but very unexpected to many, including me.
As embarrassing as it is to put an article here with Dubya as the chief protagonist, it's a symbol of what degree the US will go to to sort out the sub prime mess. Maybe they'll manage to do it?
Yep, sorry, that was a bit of a ramp wasn't it? LOLCalling a 0.9% rise in the Dow a leap is pushing it.
continuation of the bull, but very unexpected to many, including me.
Interesting, even if you are a funnymentalist you shouldn't ignore the factors that are less subjective. (maybe less subjective)
(I'm still more in the bear den dhukka, but there are solutions to any problem)
Thanks Nick, I'm obviously an amateur at both FA and TA and learning what I can. I can say honestly say that saw the capitulation and mentioned it in the admin threads, but it was just a gut feel pluck I suppose. In regard to saying we may have returned to the 'BULL', I would define this as simply staying above the 200d ma at the moment. The US bounced off it, and we spent about 5 days below during the panic, so IMO the bull is still in tact. I'm looking for the XAO to make 6200 as support and the US to break through before opening some bubbly.I think you need to break down the pieces a lot better. The market evolves each and every day and offers new information. Take a read of Mark Douglas' book "Trading In The Zone". Read it 10 times and absorb what is being said.
There was a lot o evidence, both domestically and in the US that a reasonable bounce would unfold. The blow off low, the record reading in the put/call ratio, the impulsive nature and rejection off the lows, etc etc. Review my post #1384
You need to ask, "what is the most probable pattern now?" and therefore, "what is the next most probable pattern to unfold?" Add to these specific analysis of volume, seasonal tendencies and sometimes it all falls into place.
So, in the ASX we are nearing the completion of the 5-wave off the August lows. We therefore know that this move up can only be an impulse, a wave-1 or -A. Either way, the short term would suggest a 3-wave counter trend move followed by another leg higher of similar magnitude of what we've just seen. It does not mean "BULL" nor does it mean "BEAR". What the next impulse will show us is whether we're in a "probable" BULL or BEAR move. Understanding the relationships of moves and they they combine is a powerful tool.
Nick
Kennas I thought we'd agreed that the Dow is the muppet index?
Surely you're not suggesting that lines drawn on a chart ex post facto as an explanation for what might happen in the future is less subjective?
Yes, happy with a muppet index, but nonetheless an indicator that people watch.
I've come to trust a chart more than a company report crafted by a Hogwarts graduate...
Damn accountants!!!
I don't post every trade, or investment.Oh ye of little faith.
would define this as simply staying above the 200d ma at the moment
I'm not exactly sure what your saying here Nick....Since 1960, the use of the 200ma on the S&P500 has only been effective on 30.7% of occasions. Of the 127 crossovers it has caught 7 significant bear markets ('62, '66, '69, '73, '77, '81 and '02) . On the other 120 occasions it gave false signals.
Since 1960, the use of the 200ma on the S&P500 has only been effective on 30.7% of occasions. Of the 127 crossovers it has caught 7 significant bear markets ('62, '66, '69, '73, '77, '81 and '02) . On the other 120 occasions it gave false signals.
My interpretation is he's saying a break below the 200 day MA is an unreliable indicator of a change to a bear market. 30.7% accuracy is hardly reliable.I'm not exactly sure what your saying here Nick....
In regard to saying we may have returned to the 'BULL', I would define this as simply staying above the 200d ma at the moment
Nick, was 2002 a "significant" bear market?
What actually is a bear market or a bull market?
I think I might start a new thread...
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