NWS - ready to go up?

DTM · 23 February 2005

Hi all

NWS has steadily been going down and seems to on or under the 200 day moving average. I think that it will bounce back up soon and am looking to buy ITM call options for next month. Best time to buy in my opinion would be around 3.00 to 3.30 pm today.

Any thoughts? Tech A? Of course if I'm wrong, it could drop faster than an opinion poll on Beazely.

positivecashflow · 23 February 2005

DTM said:
Of course if I'm wrong, it could drop faster than an opinion poll on Beazely.

So how are you hedging your position if you are wrong?

DTM · 23 February 2005

Can't hedge so would reverse order. If it drastically drops below the 200 ma, then I think it would keep on dropping.

:goodnight

markrmau · 23 February 2005

I was going to post today as well saying that nws would be a good buy at some time over next week, because:

1. wall st got the heebie jeebies because POO went up, because of a cold snap, and opec threatening to cut production.

However, winter is almost over, so a draw down on oil supplies isn't such a problem. Also opec countries never stick to their quotas anyway.

2. The US dollar has tanked because of the Koreans saying they are looking at buying other currencies. Not sure if that down trend will continue.

So after the typical market over-reaction, I will buy NWS - though I was thinking tomorrow would be best,

DTM · 23 February 2005

Hmmm... Decided to stay out. The puts bought today were 15,000 as opposed to 6,000 calls. Looks like the big boys are buying up big so I'll wait to see what happens.

Damn good day for option traders today. BHP and RIO did very well for me although looks like I've lost 3k on CBA. One consolation is that I sold my last lot of 10 contracts for RIO which returned 1000% from yesterdays purchase.

Gotta love this game.

markrmau · 23 February 2005

Actually I tried to buy on close but didn't get my order in on time even though I entered it about 4:04 (comsec seemed to take longer for me today).

Can I ask - is there any significance to the option expiry tomorrow - do some of the bigger players 'manipulate' the price so they will be better off tomorrow?

DTM · 23 February 2005

markrmau said:
Actually I tried to buy on close but didn't get my order in on time even though I entered it about 4:04 (comsec seemed to take longer for me today).

Can I ask - is there any significance to the option expiry tomorrow - do some of the bigger players 'manipulate' the price so they will be better off tomorrow?

I'm not sure Mark but yesterday when RIO was falling, the number of calls outnumbered the number of Puts (3,000 to 1,000 I think) meaning that maybe people were loading up for today (the price rose by $1.07 at one stage). Seeing NWS's number of Puts outweighing the number of calls by a huge amount made me draw conclusions that they are getting ready to dump the shares. These are just my conclusions and thats why I stayed out. Of course I'm probably wrong but if I'm not sure of something, I would rather stay out. If it does rise tomorrow, there should be enough room to enter on the up trend.

SuperTed · 23 February 2005

NWS will prob have more selloff on Mar 18th.

SuperTed · 24 February 2005

Our NWS charts is influenced by two key things, the US NWS price and the $au cross rate.

I see no relevance of technical information on the aus NWS chart. Many times over the last 9 months ive written put positions thinking "NWS surely has bottomed now technically and also being fundamentally very cheap and will rally upwards like a rocket."

The game being played with NWS is bigger then technicals and fundamentals at the moment.

DTM · 24 February 2005

SuperTed said:
Our NWS charts is influenced by two key things, the US NWS price and the $au cross rate.

I see no relevance of technical information on the aus NWS chart. Many times over the last 9 months ive written put positions thinking "NWS surely has bottomed now technically and also being fundamentally very cheap and will rally upwards like a rocket."

The game being played with NWS is bigger then technicals and fundamentals at the moment.

I think I agree with you Super Ted but its so hard to fathom. Today the price gapped up and looks to be on the uptrend. I'd rather wait this one out and wait for a trend to develop. "The trend is my friend"

Warren Buffet II · 24 February 2005

I am waiting for NWS to touch the $20 something market before buying. As I said I could be wrong but I am patience.

Warren Buffet II · 24 February 2005

SuperTed said:
Many times over the last 9 months ive written put positions thinking "NWS surely has bottomed now technically and also being fundamentally very cheap and will rally upwards like a rocket."

Hi SuperTed,

I am wondering why do you think NWS is technically and fundamentally very cheap?

Regards,

WBII

SuperTed · 25 February 2005

Before the "move" process that commenced with the announcement and subsequent sellof> NCP was trading in an upper half of the range of 12.40 - 13.30.

The falls and then false bottoms of NWS at prices of 24.00 , 23.00, 22.00 and then when i wrote my earlier reply near 21.00 gives an old NCP price (divide by 2) of 12.00 down to 10.50. (NCP had strong support many times at the 11.75 and 11.20 levels).

Add this to very good profit announcements by the company.

Pre all of this many brokers had a valuation of around $15+ (CSFB is the main one that springs to mind).

With tech charts i mainly look at macd/rsi/ stochastics these have all givin signals (albeit at difeerent false bottoms).

However If the aussie dollars gets weaker this may counter the US weakness in the share. I have written many 2100 puts, so i hope that it moves.

DTM · 25 February 2005

SuperTed said:
Before the "move" process that commenced with the announcement and subsequent sellof> NCP was trading in an upper half of the range of 12.40 - 13.30.

The falls and then false bottoms of NWS at prices of 24.00 , 23.00, 22.00 and then when i wrote my earlier reply near 21.00 gives an old NCP price (divide by 2) of 12.00 down to 10.50. (NCP had strong support many times at the 11.75 and 11.20 levels).

Add this to very good profit announcements by the company.

Pre all of this many brokers had a valuation of around $15+ (CSFB is the main one that springs to mind).

With tech charts i mainly look at macd/rsi/ stochastics these have all givin signals (albeit at difeerent false bottoms).

However If the aussie dollars gets weaker this may counter the US weakness in the share. I have written many 2100 puts, so i hope that it moves.

Hi Super Ted

I think the AUD is going to break the 80cents mark and keep heading up in the medium term. I'm not sure what that might do to NWS. I think that after todays moves, you'll be alright. Do you plan to buy back some of your risk?

DTM · 25 February 2005

PS I still think NWS is showing signs of price weakness.

SuperTed · 27 February 2005

DTM said:
Hi Super Ted

I think the AUD is going to break the 80cents mark and keep heading up in the medium term. I'm not sure what that might do to NWS. I think that after todays moves, you'll be alright. Do you plan to buy back some of your risk?

I already bought back my Mar 2200 puts ;-(

Bingo · 27 February 2005

Up to $22.02 in NY on Friday.

Warren Buffet II · 27 February 2005

Bingo said:
Up to $22.02 in NY on Friday.

Hi Bingo,

Do you think there are much relation between the NWS price in AU and US and the AU dollar? What I mean is if the AU dollar goes up to 80c and NWS in US keeps the same price, is the NWS in AU going down?

WBII

DTM · 28 February 2005

I think NWS is heading for a retracement.

1.92 and looks like its heading south.

SuperTed · 28 February 2005

The interest rate rise on wednesday will not be good for NWS (the $au should gain strength against the $US)

Normally the NWS share price here = NWS (US) / $ exchange rate

so an increasing au dollar against a weak NWS in the US will not help it at all here.

ALSO on the 18th Mar NWS looses another 25% of its listing weight here. Index funds that havent already sold off may sell down some more.

NWS - ready to go up?

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