NST - Northern Star Resources

Why Macquarie forecasts Northern Star shares are set to surge 55%​

Macquarie believes Northern Star shares are well-placed to rocket higher.
Posted by


Bernd Struben ❯



Published July 28, 12:30 pm AEST

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed on Friday trading for $15.81. At the time of writing, shares are swapping hands for $16.13 apiece, up 2.0%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.

Despite today's strong performance, Northern Star shares are only up by 15.5% over the past 12 months.

I say 'only', because most of Northern Star's gold mining peers have gained significantly more over the past year, as witnessed by the 42.1% one-year gains posted by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD).

But according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the ASX 200 gold miner is well placed to make up for that lost ground, and then some, in the year ahead.

In a research report, released following the ASX 200 gold miner's June quarter update on Thursday July 27, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Northern Star shares.

The broker noted that Northern Star reported quarterly gold production of 446,000 ounces, which was in line with both consensus estimates and Macquarie's own estimates.

The miner's all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to produce that gold came in at AU$2,197 per ounce, which was "slightly below" Macquarie's cost estimate.

In other key metrics, Northern Star reported that both its Yandal and Pogo mines delivered record quarterly and annual net mine cash flows. This saw Northern Star holding cash and bullion of $1.914 billion at the end of the quarter, after funding its De Grey acquisition.

As for what's ahead for Northern Star shares, the miner reiterated its FY 2026 guidance of 1.70 million to 1.85 million ounces of gold sold at an AISC of $2,300 to $2,700 per ounce.

Macquarie noted this was closely aligned with its own FY 2026 estimates.

Looking at potential catalysts for Northern Star, Macquarie said:

While progressing to plan, timing and cost control of the KCGM expansion is important. NST also commented that a little more colour on the group's outlook would be provided at the KCGM site visit on the 2 August.

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The broker has a 12-month price target for Northern Star shares of $25.00. That represents a potential upside of 55.0% from current levels.

Atop those potential share price gains, Northern Star stock also trades on an unfranked 3.1% trailing dividend yield.

The ASX gold sector has underperformed its typical link to physical gold by 12 per cent over the past two months, giving a “good entry point”, according to Goldman Sachs equity strategist Matthew Ross.

“Gold has been the only ‘defensive’ ASX sector that has produced positive returns on average during past ASX 200 sell-offs,” Ross notes. During falls of at least 5 per cent in a quarter, gold stocks have typically outperformed by 11 per cent on average.

Valuations also appear supportive at 5.6 times EV/EBITDA, a 32 per cent discount to the 20-year average. Goldman Sachs has buy ratings on Northern Star Resources in large caps, along with Capricorn Metals, Bellevue Gold and Pantoro in the mid-cap space.

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ASX hits record high as companies deliver positive surprises, but Goldman warns of US ‘stall speed’


Looking at swapping KCN for these guys......

Found the above interesting thought I'd share.

UMike said:

ASX hits record high as companies deliver positive surprises, but Goldman warns of US ‘stall speed’


Looking at swapping KCN for these guys......

Found the above interesting thought I'd share.

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Most gold juniors are trading at yearly highs, which way they're going to go is unknown because the markets are very fickle. The time to get into them was a few months ago IMHO. There are still opportunities to get in, but I'd be wary of Insto pumps.

TimeISmoney said:

Most gold juniors are trading at yearly highs, which way they're going to go is unknown because the markets are very fickle. The time to get into them was a few months ago IMHO. There are still opportunities to get in, but I'd be wary of Insto pumps.

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Yea.... The above looked like a pump to me.
Thought Macquarie would be better than that. Who knows might be OK....


Still looking. But for the record..... Interested.

On the shorter timescales this am, it has reasonable support at $17.40 but I'm keeping an eye on it. Macquarie and I have an interest.

gg

Northern Star has had a good month which surprises me. It seems at an interesting juncture in that the daily chart shows it filled the gap around $18 four days ago but ~$18 is also the level where it broke the support of a supposed double top. It's my biggest holding but I suspect I'd be waiting on this teeter point to resolve if I were thinking of adding.

It's not just the hypothetical double top it's the lacklustre profit record ever since it merged with Saracen Minerals in 2021. Below is the ROE record where you can see a collapse since that 2021 watershed event (second row from bottom). Based on the last four years alone of ROE the stock is way overvalued.

Returns on Equity from FY21 through FY24 - pathetic

Northern Star is only for the long sighted - assuming they're right - when massive capital works start to pay off. And of course for those who believe in a sustainably high gold price.

Held
Holding

finicky said:

Northern Star has had a good month which surprises me. It seems at an interesting juncture in that the daily chart shows it filled the gap around $18 four days ago but ~$18 is also the level where it broke the support of a supposed double top. It's my biggest holding but I suspect I'd be waiting on this teeter point to resolve if I were thinking of adding.

It's not just the hypothetical double top it's the lacklustre profit record ever since it merged with Saracen Minerals in 2021. Below is the ROE record where you can see a collapse since that 2021 watershed event (second row from bottom). Based on the last four years alone of ROE the stock is way overvalued.

Returns on Equity from FY21 through FY24 - pathetic

-8.10%

1.90%

6.90%

7.30%

Northern Star is only for the long sighted - assuming they're right - when massive capital works start to pay off. And of course for those who believe in a sustainably high gold price.

Held
Holding

View attachment 206048

View attachment 206049

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Everything is overvalued ATM, stocks are trading high at crazy PEs. I think popular gold stocks are just following the gold price.

Volume seems to be coming down towards the end but MA says there's more in it.

(Not held)

finicky said:

Northern Star is only for the long sighted - assuming they're right - when massive capital works start to pay off. And of course for those who believe in a sustainably high gold price.

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my farsightedness isn't so good , but i bought in 2013 ( @87 cents )

and my good luck sometimes looks to be genius

BTW i see the price of gold as the inverse value of the currency you are swapping it for ( aka a sign that the currency is dumping )

unless gold demand drops to equal lead , it should do OK

^^^
Low content

Looking Good for the open.

Market Matters on the result:

Northern Star (NST) $18.31​

NST +0.49%: Reported an in-line FY25 result with a higher dividend.

• Underlying Net Profit After Tax $1.42 billion, in line with consensus.
• Final DPS 30.0cps, ahead of consensus at 27cps.
• FY26 cash tax paid expected at A$700– $835 million, above consensus $719 million

FY26 will be investment heavy, with the Superpit mill expansion limiting free cash flow. Higher tax and D&A are likely to pressure earnings in the near term, though NST’s strong balance sheet and investment are still supportive of growth in the medium to long term.
MM is cautiously bullish NST

Welcome to NST.

I was going to sell my stash in NST this morning but I've cancelled the order. Let's see where this little reptile goes next. $3360 seems to be holding for the pog and I can't see anywhere else to put the money tbh.

I've been travelling a bit over the last week and my brain is a bit addled with too many welcomes to country. You can only take so much. Then you don't make decisions like you normally would. So the order to sell at $18.52 or above is pulled, let's see how it goes.

Welcome to NST.

gg

Still got time....
.
i'm trying to buy so It'll rise. :sad:

Oh well, that's nice I guess. Better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick anyway.
Gold is all the rage right now and this is Macquarie's top gold pick https://share.google/oGjP1RTQCRfZUJgp6

Held

"As far as ASX-listed gold miners are concerned, Macquarie switched its large-cap gold preference from Newmont (ASX: NEM) to Northern Star (ASX: NST), citing attractive valuations and clearer operational outlook after a period of underperformance has created opportunity for investors.

Northern Star becomes the preferred large-cap gold exposure, followed by Newmont (downgraded to neutral) and Evolution Mining (underperform), marking a significant shift in analyst sentiment following recent share price divergence between the companies.

EVN
Evolution Mining
Underperform
$7.00

NEM
Newmont
Neutral
$111.00

NST
Northern Star
Outperform
$24.00

Source: Macquarie Research, August 2025

Valuation gap creates opportunity
The rotation reflects Northern Star's flat performance since June 2025, while Newmont surged 25% over the same period. This divergence has created an attractive entry point for Northern Star, which now trades at just 1.1x price-to-net asset value compared to Newmont's 1.2x and Evolution's elevated 1.7x.

The company offers the highest five-year average free cash flow yield at 5% and the strongest production growth outlook, with FY30 output expected to be 54% higher than FY25 levels."

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Interesting visit. Is NST still hungry with $1 B cash in hand. sharing the same building with Greatland and Newmont. If BHP and Rio could consider merger - with a bottle of 43% single malt can I dream of merger between Newmont (world's largest gold) with head office in USA Denver and NST Australian's largest gold producer with Pogo Mines in Alaska (?).
Sky is the limit I would say for wishful day dreams.

Miner said:

can I dream of merger between Newmont (world's largest gold) with head office in USA Denver and NST Australian's largest gold producer with Pogo Mines in Alaska (?).

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No, please no