Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

No more stop orders starting early 2016 - NYSE

Jump to new
susie19 said:
Hi. No, I'm looking at the Original Power setups, and have decided it's right for me, in my current situation (ie time-poor)
Click to expand...

CFD providers would likely still be providing stops. They hedge their clients against eachother and if they are hedging in the market they will make adjustments according to their exposure.

Perhaps we need a thread on signal services, and trying to discover which ones are legit/have a positive expectation. There are many bad/scam ones out there. If we can identify a list of at least decent ones and what is involved (cost, whether you have to actively manage the trade or if it is all end of day, and past performance) then it may give us some options on recommendations going forward.

So far, this forum basically recommends Radge when someone wants a trade/signal service. Partly because Radge is an Aussie, I think! Radge is legit but whether it is a good fit for you though and you like the results is something you have to make your own mind up about. His results are on the website. He has had some bad years and he has had some good years and he even says this past performance isn't indicative of future performance. Most of his offerings seem to have generated alpha (except the standard portfolio in HFT, which has generated a loss) but they also have a lot of volatility.

I actually really like the idea of short term mean reversion, but I hate the idea in individual stocks and definitely hate the idea of using mean reversion in a trending market. If Radge was able to apply it successfully to forex then that would be very interesting.
 
susie19 said:
Hi. No, I'm looking at the Original Power setups, and have decided it's right for me, in my current situation (ie time-poor)
Click to expand...

I trade that with a CFD account. The margin gives me more trades if they're available, not larger positions. Is still use from .5 to 1% risk.

By the time IB get s**t together with margin, there will be a work around for the exchange stops issue.:2twocents

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
I trade that with a CFD account. The margin gives me more trades if they're available, not larger positions. Is still use from .5 to 1% risk.

By the time IB get s**t together with margin, there will be a work around for the exchange stops issue.:2twocents

CanOz
Click to expand...

Have you had success with it? When I did a trial of it maybe 2 years ago now, it wasn't Radge who chose the setups but someone working for him. I dislike that since you don't really know who is doing it and what methods they are using. The results for the power setups don't appear to be reported on the website.

I saw some trades which I thought were very questionable in that it seemed high risk and low probability. If it worked you would make a fair bit but it's the low probability high reward aspect that seems to add to a lot of the volatility, There were a lot of breakout trades there, especially break out trading of commodities. There are problems with breakout trading commodities in that you have to be sure the fundamentals are on your side or at least likely to be on your side. Prices can have a run up and a flag because people are assessing still whether rain will come to save the coffee crops in Brazil and if the rain does not come you get the breakout, if it does come you see a sharp drop, since the weather doesn't care that the chart looks bullish and the managed money can't predict the weather anymore than the people who report the weather can.

I also think putting too much exposure onto individual stocks is riskier than getting all the capital you want to put into equities and put it into index futures because you're just increasing your overall risk on correlating assets. I would imagine multiple breakout trades would fail together if the market overall is bearish and succeed together if the market overall is bullish.

I just felt like it wasn't the best use of my capital, it seems like a risky strategy with high drawdowns, and required me to consider the fundamentals myself, and in which case I don't need the service. I should mention though Radge generally appears to have a positive expectation on most products (even though this one isn't reported) and his service is significantly cheaper than other signal services which can cost 3 - 4 times as much. I just think you're in for a lot of periods where you have high drawdowns and then make it up in later years. If it generates alpha I guess it is ok, but there are strategies that do not have as much risk to them out there. It may be ok for the guy who just wants to set and forget and can handle drawdowns and just stick with the strategy through thick and thin.
 
Top