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NEN - Neon Capital

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Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Thought i'd get this thread going... Have had a small parcel of NEN (ex Salinas) in the bottom drawer since the GFC... Has been an absolute dog!

But have seen a bit of a jump in the SP in the last two months - from 10c to 16.5c!

Patersons put a report out on 27 October 2010 with a target price of 26c:

Production continues to increase. Production was up marginally
at 362bopd (358bopd for June Q) following the drilling of the
Lombardi 15-27H which came on at 230bopd and increased to
488bopd. The well boosted the gross rate in excess of 750bopd,
however the timing meant it did not have a significant effect on the
Sep Q results. Steaming is also planned at NSA, which together with
the potential for more development wells will continue to enhance
this cornerstone asset. NEN finished the quarter of US$2.1m in cash
plus US$1.5m receivable from KrysEnergy.

Appraisal of Paris Valley has significant upside potential. With
our valuation of NSA at $0.15/sh underpinning the current share
price there is significant upside from the progression of NEN’s
portfolio of exploration and appraisal assets. This includes the Paris
Valley project which is thought to contain over 100mmbbls of oil in
place. Testing of the vertical well NPV-1 is underway, which subject
to a favourable outcome will be followed by a horizontal appraisal
well in the central section (CPV-1H) and in turn will allow for a
review of MHA’s reserve assessment. Should the testing suggest
that a development could yield even a 10% recovery of the in place
volumes, this would be a significant boost to NEN’s current
3.8mmbbls of reserves at NSA and be a major catalyst for the stock.

Vietnam acreage provides ‘blue-sky’ exploration upside.
Interpretation of newly acquired 2D seismic across both exploration
blocks will be followed by an independent resource assessment in
early 2011 (results likely in mid-2011). ExxonMobil plans to
commence exploration drilling in late 2010, with one well per block
planned for the 3 blocks located to the immediate North of NEN’s
Block 120. Success would enhance the prospectivity of Block 120.

We maintain our BUY recommendation with a price target of
$0.26/sh. Key catalysts will be ramp up of production at NSA plus
additional wells, NPV-1 results (Q4 2010), CPV-1H drilling and
testing (Q1 2011), independent resource assessment in Vietnam
(mid-2011) followed by first exploration drilling in Block 120 (2012)
with the results of ExxonMobil’s program to have significant bearing.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Lol . I hope you held onto it.
This happened: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buGqReTozno
People saw this conference, and the SP then erupted. Just shows you what the efficient market theory is worth.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Just noticed a 7.55% spike in share price, any ideas on where this is headed?

Dont hold the stock - not yet
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

yes, very keen to know more about this one
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Some good unrisked prospective resource estimates out today from its block 105 off vietnam of 6.3 Tcf gas, with high case of 21.4 Tcf, and 155 million barrels of oil with high case of 487 million barrels. Assessment from block 120 still to come. They plan to drill three wells in these prospects early next year, hopefully farmed out at no cost to themselves.
Revenue from their California operation has built up since they have started steam injecting, increasing from $2.1m to $3.9m last quarter.
Plenty of news to come with Exxon about to start drilling just north of Block 120 and Origin drilling block 121 to the south soon.
They have some great prospects for a company with a market cap of only $125m and plenty more room for increasing the shareprice.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

What a day - up 18% - volume of 9 mil shares traded and closed on the high of 36cents!

I had a look at the announcment - Bluegold Global Fund have upped their stake to 14.97%.

This stock really shows the value of a bit of patience!
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

From the AFR
"Viet gas prospects propel Neon into the limelight

Punters are continuing to scramble aboard little-known oil and gas play Neon Energy. The stock has already surged by almost 30 per cent since the announcement of some huge exploration targets earlier this week.

Studies at Neon's 40 per cent-owned Block 105 off Vietnam identified prospects capable of hosting a whopping 21 trillion cubic feet of gas. On a best estimate basis, the prospects could host over 6.2 Tcf.

Neon's already being talked of as the next Karoon Gas, which surged in value on the back of its huge Poseidon gas discovery, and the presence of several oil and gas majors in neighbouring blocks has only helped feed the excitement.

While the rewards are potentially huge, so too are the risks. But even a comparatively small discovery could drive a re-rating well in excess of this week's gain. And with a second Vietnam block being studied, the potential could grow yet again. Southern Cross Equities values Neon at 46 a share based on just 1.5 Tcf in the block with a 20 per cent risking. A more optimistic, fully un risked valuation would sit closer to $10 a share."

Holding up well today on a down day for energy stocks, after two good day of rises.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

NEN is still going fairly strong today with about 3 Times the buyers as there are sellers.

I'm not sure that the stock can keep going up like this.

(took a punt yesterday at 38.5c)
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Independant assessment of block 120 out today, best estimate of total unrisked prospective resources of 2.67 billion barrels of oil with high case of 7.95 billion barrels.
Two best estimate leads of 611 million barrels and 460 million barrels.
Shouldnt have any problems farming this out for a free carry through the drill, whilst retaining a high percentage in case of eventual success.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy


Sounds big. Anyone care to provide some ball park valuation?

Holding a few on technical analysis but would probably keep a few for longer term if the upside is there.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Bit hard to put a valuation on the vietnam blocks at this early stage. Southern Cross equities do an analysis of the value of Block 105 of anywhere between 14c and $10, depending on amount of risking and which level of estimate is used. They had a target of 46c using the lower valuation and before this weeks block 120 estimates.
Their research can be found at the neon webpage.
http://neonenergy.com/investors/media
Personally I'll be holding till they start drilling, when I'll probably sell half and keep the rest for the possibility of some major upside. Have held these for about 7 or 8 months and so far it has been ticking all the boxes, with a growing revenue stream from its californian operations and vietnam looking better and better.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy


Thanks. 14c to $10 is a pretty big range... I might just keep trading it technically. I don't hold anymore but it looks like something that has a few runs left in it.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Really like this stock. Has a lot of potential. What are peoples thoughts short term on this price? Personally I see it heading north past the 12 month high.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

makybe04 said:
Really like this stock. Has a lot of potential. What are peoples thoughts short term on this price? Personally I see it heading north past the 12 month high.
Click to expand...

Held up pretty well today despite most other small oilers making big retreats. Apparently the latest run is due to an upgrade from Southern Cross Equities after the review of Block 120 with a valuation of $1.20.
Bit of news soon on farmouts and Exxon drilling will hopefully keep the shareprice moving.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

A nice run today, indeed. Would greatly appreciate it if someone could provide some technical input regarding this breakout. Reckon it'll continue tomorrow, or consolidate?

Cheers.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

This one is in an interesting position.

It looks like some supply coming in today, as it attempted to push through the strong resistance area.
 
Re: NEN - Neon Energy

Currently its assets are valued at 41c by a small cap report - without valuing exploration upside (if you would), suggesting great prospects here.

Production valued at 27c at $ 100 barrels and Cash at 14c.



Waiting for the action to develop before I will believe anything though. So far it is running along in the range.
 
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