tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
I should have been clearer.
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See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
I should have been clearer.
All good. You made me go back throuhg my own posts to make sure I didn't call it as such..
May have already started? As for NCM, until the seller(s) who continually keep the sell side volume over 900k are done then not much upside in the short term?
I posted this in January on this thread. This valuation still holds true.
The balance sheet for NCM in the latest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... NCM has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cash flow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earned in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...
I don't understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing a lot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.
So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?
Because we are human...
Information is just data, it still needs to be interpreted and we all interpret it differently. People tend to read what they want to see into financial reports and other information, positive confirmation.
In that regard its no different to TA, the biggest hurdle any system or strategy has is human nature!
Why are some people good at technical analysis and some aren't, they have access to the exact same charts? Why is my golf swing so cr@p but my mate hits off scratch? Why, why, why?
We are veering dangerously off topic, but I am amused by your description of TA as black and white, as someone with a mathematical background its more like voodoo to me! The concept defies logic, attemting to predict future events based on historical data is counter intuitive and illogical from a rational perspective.
Mind you i think a fair part of FA is voodoo too, at the end of the day we are all trying to find means to work an irrational market to our advantage and history suggests there is not a difficult answer, let alone an easy one - or we would all be rich.
Not really interested in all.
If your attempting to predict without understanding
How to apply in both forms your doomed to failure.
It's not about being right
It's about being profitable.It's pretty clear that few in BOTH disciplines know how to be profitable.
NCM is a perfect example
As is PEN
RED
To name a few.
Is $9.61 close enough?
If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.
Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.
I'd be waiting.
Thanks GG but I wrote that just as NCM bounced off $9.61 (intraday) after the previous poster wrote he was going to buy at $9.60. I was just being a bit cheeky...
As I said a few pages ago, the $6 region is my target but in saying that, I will not be buying anything unless I see it stabilize and start heading back up.... That is, if I buy at all. Not really in the business of buying shares anymore.
Thanks ftw129.
Wise words.
I am 16% Aus Shares, 84% Cash, and waiting for some stabilisation on XAO.
gg
NCM - Newcrest Mining
- Thread starter Profitseeker
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See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
I should have been clearer.
skc
Goldmember
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All good. You made me go back throuhg my own posts to make sure I didn't call it as such..
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A screaming buy? It will be if there's no taper at all and the gold shorts have to cover......
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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May have already started? As for NCM, until the seller(s) who continually keep the sell side volume over 900k are done then not much upside in the short term?
I posted this in January on this thread. This valuation still holds true.
The balance sheet for NCM in the latest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... NCM has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cash flow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earned in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...
I don't understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing a lot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Because we are human...
galumay
learner
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Information is just data, it still needs to be interpreted and we all interpret it differently. People tend to read what they want to see into financial reports and other information, positive confirmation.
In that regard its no different to TA, the biggest hurdle any system or strategy has is human nature!
- Joined
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- 242
Why are some people good at technical analysis and some aren't, they have access to the exact same charts? Why is my golf swing so cr@p but my mate hits off scratch? Why, why, why?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Ok get it
Very few are good at it.
Even less know how to
Trade profitably with it.
It's too grey for me
Personally I like the back and
White of T/A.
Very few are good at it.
Even less know how to
Trade profitably with it.
It's too grey for me
Personally I like the back and
White of T/A.
galumay
learner
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We are veering dangerously off topic, but I am amused by your description of TA as black and white, as someone with a mathematical background its more like voodoo to me! The concept defies logic, attemting to predict future events based on historical data is counter intuitive and illogical from a rational perspective.
Mind you i think a fair part of FA is voodoo too, at the end of the day we are all trying to find means to work an irrational market to our advantage and history suggests there is not a difficult answer, let alone an easy one - or we would all be rich.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
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Not really interested in all.
If your attempting to predict without understanding
How to apply in both forms your doomed to failure.
It's not about being right
It's about being profitable.It's pretty clear that few in BOTH disciplines know how to be profitable.
NCM is a perfect example
As is PEN
RED
To name a few.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Back on topic please, it Saturday!
ftw129
Sell crap and manage risk
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Is $9.61 close enough?
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.
Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.
I'd be waiting.
![](data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,<svg height="335px" width="579px" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" version="1.1"/>)
ftw129
Sell crap and manage risk
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If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.
Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.
I'd be waiting.
Thanks GG but I wrote that just as NCM bounced off $9.61 (intraday) after the previous poster wrote he was going to buy at $9.60. I was just being a bit cheeky...
As I said a few pages ago, the $6 region is my target but in saying that, I will not be buying anything unless I see it stabilize and start heading back up.... That is, if I buy at all. Not really in the business of buying shares anymore.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
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Thanks ftw129.
Wise words.
I am 16% Aus Shares, 84% Cash, and waiting for some stabilisation on XAO.
gg