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my attempt last year to do the 20% flipper after finetuning of stop loss/trigger based on backtesting ended up in the real world as a net loss and substancial loss in percentage in an overall bull market
another proof that you can back test as much as you want, if you enter at the wrong time in the cycle and limit your experience to a year, you can end up with a nasty surprise
just a world of caution...
my attempt last year to do the 20% flipper after finetuning of stop loss/trigger based on backtesting ended up in the real world as a net loss and substancial loss in percentage in an overall bull market
another proof that you can back test as much as you want, if you enter at the wrong time in the cycle and limit your experience to a year, you can end up with a nasty surprise
just a world of caution...
Hi Tinhat,
Whilst some may argue that this is a low risk portfolio, I tend to disagree.
43% of the capital and around 43.5% is exposed to the banking sector. I assume that this is a set and forget portfolio, therefore it will be exposed to the cyclical nature of the economy over time. I would be wary of the banks, they shoot the lights out when things are looking good (and they have been for 20 years now), but would be exposed in a recession. Who knows what skeletons are in the closet? Sounds like a big risk wagering 43% of your capital on everything staying rosy for ever.
If those dividends get cut then you are forced to sell in an environment where capital value may be at a low ebb (banks historically have traded near book value in a recession).
The banks have their place in a portfolio, when risk and reward is well placed, but for someone relying on a long-term income stream 43.5% in banks looks way over the mark.
There has not been a hiccup in a long-time, but can you say that this will be the case for another 20 years as a certainty?
Personally, I think it is the best of the suggestions that have been put forward so far.
about my bad experience with the 20% flipper:
own code in amibroker but based on Radge's book with no extra guess :moving average on the asx deciding to stop any new buy, backtest to decide best exit stops
started at the wrong time early 2013, my adjusted stop loss made me exit most of my positions with a loss in the april/may 13 decline(from memory); by the time the buy was on again, I had missed much of the surge up.
I exited most last october/november waiting for the crash which did not happen (yet?)..but did not loose much anyway.
I also believe the bias in the asx toward the banks and rio/bhp makes using the asx200 as an indicator too distorded.
But in a nutshell, these 30k per year are not that easy !
... Yeah, sometimes its easier to just go to work ...
I'll put a vote in for Sydboy007. In my view, he's actually closest to the mark. It seems this is a serious question.
Although some people seem to think it's easy, try it when you're sitting there watching your portfolio shrink by 50%. Please try it.
I've found your and Sydboy007's responses to be very informative and very well thought out and explained. You are, however, adding a lot of assumptions to the original question which simply was:
what is the minimum capital for you to make $30,000 per year in stockmarket
You've provided a scenario where the poster is looking to create an investment income as the sole source of income for retirement and made some additional decisions about capital draw down without being provided with any information that would allow you to make reasoned calculations. None of this is in the original question but understand your reasoning and the solution you provide.
but it's a good companybut buy and holding 'blue chip stocks' is a riskier approach than most give credit for.
Very good point. Particularly when we're dependent on our capital to generate a living, capital protection should be the first priority imo.I still feel like as a whole a lot of members on this forum run by the mantra "ah it doesn't matter if the share price is below what I paid for im getting the dividend so its fine". Business's can cut dividends to or go under completely. I get people in their later years need an income stream but buy and holding 'blue chip stocks' is a riskier approach than most give credit for.
I still feel like as a whole a lot of members on this forum run by the mantra "ah it doesn't matter if the share price is below what I paid for im getting the dividend so its fine". Business's can cut dividends to or go under completely. I get people in their later years need an income stream but buy and holding 'blue chip stocks' is a riskier approach than most give credit for.
Equity trading system with 50,000 starting capital returning 20% average net = $50,000 x 20% = $10,000
Where do you envisage this property to be to get that Net yield?How about a combination of the following:
Investment Property: $350,000 @ 4.5% net yield = $15750
Where do you envisage this property to be to get that Net yield?
I've just done a very quick calculation on a $350K rental in my area - coastal Qld, pop 55,000, no shortage of tenants - and a property of that value, after expenses, would net roughly 2.5%.
Calculated as follows:
Rent $300 p.a. max: rounded up to $16,000
Less:
Rates $3000 pa
Management fee $500 p.a.
Insurance $1500
Water and general maintenance at least $2000 p.a.
= Net $9000 approx.
And that is before allowing for any tax.
Then we cannot assume property will appreciate in value. Property values here are still more than 20% below pre-GFC levels, so you have capital loss to consider as well.
So a poor ROE coupled with all the hassle of tenants.
I have to agree:
bought at the low: 270k unit (total cost after all stamp duties etc) rented at 320 a week
property now valued around 300k (ie 10 % capital gain in around 3 years-> just matching inflation when you think about it)
after all costs, repairs etc get around 7.5k a year so a return of 2.8%
I could get a bit more managing myself, not being nice to the tenant etc etc-> but a 3% return is IMHO the most realistic figure you can get at present time on a standard property;
yes there is some depreciation etc to add to this but will not add an extra point
and honestly, I think I am doing quite well with this one.
bying now at 300k + cost would reduce the return even more
Commercial property is better and I have a shed soon settled but finding a tenant will not be easy....
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