Market Crash 2025

[mullokintyre]

Are we there yet?
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

depending on what YOU called 'defensive ...

my 'defensive choices ' are nowhere down enough to tempt me to add ( in general ) , not even BEAR

they might be lower but many aren't good value , maybe the conservative LICs might be a reasonable compromise , they smooth divs pay some franking and don't normally take outsized risks


now correction or crash after 2020 , some might suggest we have had a correction , without a broad-based recovery , but will a bigger crash still come ( in the next two years ) , some economies are worse than a joke , official data is often suspect

and pick a likely trigger for the collapse , including a second part to the yen carry-trade ( has that been fully unwound ?) there are plenty to chose from

one possibility is we are 'climbing a wall of worry ' , sure there is still the rare ' fair value stock ' , but many valuations are unrealistic ... but if the market is fixated on capital gains , valuations mean little to the current buyers ( look at the crypto-frenzy for validation of that )

Good points.

I did look at but disagree on LIC's though in a proper market crash. In a crash, office rent will be the first casualty, as it is an easy major expense that can be cut. Systems for working from home are highly developed and can be re-instituted if not already in place quite quickly.

The dangers of the yen carry trade and crypto are daily stories in the financial press.

It just needs a trigger.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Good points.

I did look at but disagree on LIC's though in a proper market crash. In a crash, office rent will be the first casualty, as it is an easy major expense that can be cut. Systems for working from home are highly developed and can be re-instituted if not already in place quite quickly.

The dangers of the yen carry trade and crypto are daily stories in the financial press.

It just needs a trigger.

gg

where possible i avoided REITs heavy in office exposure i tried for industrial sheds , healthcare-related REITs ( one of those is having tenant trouble ) , personal storage and car-yards ( usually on prime sites for later redevelopment ) sure i hold some retail ( BWP , RGN ) and some broad-asset players ( MGR , SGP and CWP )

very treacherous times currently , too many triggers to watch for

very likely to be extremely bumpy

 

[divs4ever]

Good points.

I did look at but disagree on LIC's though in a proper market crash. In a crash, office rent will be the first casualty, as it is an easy major expense that can be cut. Systems for working from home are highly developed and can be re-instituted if not already in place quite quickly.

The dangers of the yen carry trade and crypto are daily stories in the financial press.

It just needs a trigger.

gg

in March 2020 one LIC ( CDM ) was very proud of liquidating 100% of the portfolio , which i thought was hilarious because i was adding at 48 and 39 cents a share at the same time , i was also bulking up on APE @ $2.64

but watch out for another K-shaped recovery as 'mates ' are saved ( good companies will likely have to fend for themselves )

 

[mullokintyre]

The Shiller PE Ratio, also known as the CAPE ratio, is a valuation measure that compares a stock's current price to its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. It helps investors assess whether the market is overvalued or undervalued, providing insights into potential future returns.
Now, have a look at this.

Good night and sleep well.
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

Not a Timing Tool:
A high CAPE ratio doesn't signal exactly when a market will crash; markets can remain overvalued for many years before a correction.

Beware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller's Ratio in Modern Market Valuation - Aptus Capital Advisors

The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, introduced by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller in 1988, has long been a cornerstone of market valuation metrics. By smoothing earnings over a decade, it aims to provide a more stable, long-term perspective on market valuations. However, the...

aptuscapitaladvisors.com

There's no chance of a crash this year... no way
I ain't givin it back.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Not a Timing Tool:
A high CAPE ratio doesn't signal exactly when a market will crash; markets can remain overvalued for many years before a correction.

Beware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller's Ratio in Modern Market Valuation - Aptus Capital Advisors

The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, introduced by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller in 1988, has long been a cornerstone of market valuation metrics. By smoothing earnings over a decade, it aims to provide a more stable, long-term perspective on market valuations. However, the...

aptuscapitaladvisors.com

There's no chance of a crash this year... no way
I ain't givin it back.

View attachment 209297

I take your point @frugal.rock , however time can work against the holder more than the assets. Given average male longevity rates in Australia I only have max of 10 years to allow assets to continue skywards. Then I return to Valhalla and the company of my ancestors and as they say on Qantas on landing, "this land did belong to GG and all GG's past present and emerging which doesn't make sense to me but anyways I'm sure someone is getting paid for thinking it up".

There is a strong case to be made for selling up and spending the money on ladies who don't charge upfront, drink, and holidays in a caravan floating down the Rhine or across Canada with boring as **** old farts who talk about Trivago and their hips.

Can I outlive a crash is the question and hand the lucre on to my descendants to piss up against the wall in some cases.

Market crashes do occasionally stray in to the existential but at the time they are real. I always say I'll be well cashed up for the crash but never am. As you say there are many opportunities lost waiting for it.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

Not a Timing Tool:
A high CAPE ratio doesn't signal exactly when a market will crash; markets can remain overvalued for many years before a correction.

Beware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller's Ratio in Modern Market Valuation - Aptus Capital Advisors

The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, introduced by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller in 1988, has long been a cornerstone of market valuation metrics. By smoothing earnings over a decade, it aims to provide a more stable, long-term perspective on market valuations. However, the...

aptuscapitaladvisors.com

There's no chance of a crash this year... no way
I ain't givin it back.

You don't have much choice in giving it back or not,
They will just take it.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

In one of those masterstrokes of understatement,



Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

only 14 weeks to go until we have to sit around a TV and watch the harbour bridge in Sydney turn colourful. Then it will be time for a new thread

Market Crash 2026​

 

[Knobby22]

only 14 weeks to go until we have to sit around a TV and watch the harbour bridge in Sydney turn colourful. Then it will be time for a new thread

Market Crash 202​

Not a Timing Tool:
A high CAPE ratio doesn't signal exactly when a market will crash; markets can remain overvalued for many years before a correction.

Beware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller's Ratio in Modern Market Valuation - Aptus Capital Advisors

The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, introduced by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller in 1988, has long been a cornerstone of market valuation metrics. By smoothing earnings over a decade, it aims to provide a more stable, long-term perspective on market valuations. However, the...

aptuscapitaladvisors.com

There's no chance of a crash this year... no way
I ain't givin it back.

View attachment 209297

100% Too many with cash on the side-lines. The (flash) crash already happened earlier this year.
Maybe next year, maybe not.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've no idea, like the rest of us, when a crash comes, but I've had more sells than buys in my SMSF Commsec account and an equal number of buys and sells in my Personal IBKR account over the past week. The former as much on fundamental reasoning as charting, and the latter purely on sectors and charting. The SMSF doesn't buy or sell as much as I do in my personal account.

Overall cash is building and I have a lot of that cash in term deposit mostly 10-12 mo. where I'm such a hater of banks I doubt if I'll use it before maturity. I doubt if the world is interested in the GG-Index. Anyway, the GG-stock index is somewhat dovish atm. for what it is worth.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

I also have done more selling than buying recently.
Things have just run up too hard to not have some sort of correction.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I also have done more selling than buying recently.
Things have just run up too hard to not have some sort of correction.
Mick

true. the good days haven't got much conviction, and days like today just seem to unearth more sellers, as the hours tick by

 

[divs4ever]

Given average male longevity rates in Australia I only have max of 10 years to allow assets to continue skywards. Then I return to Valhalla and the company of my ancestors

a very high chance i will have less than that and more likely to go to Hel .. and am not sure i have many ancestors there , given i was allegedly the proverbial black sheep ( although auntie laughingly asserted i was a real chip off the maternal-side grandfather ) .. so maybe the grandfather i never met will be there , and we can get intoxicated together

... and if ( family ) history is any guide .. there will be a huge legal struggle for anything slightly valuable

i suggested they take a DNA sample from me and PROVE they are related ( and then let the fighting begin )

however i have been preparing for this coming crash since mid-2012 , am not sure the plan is bomb-proof , but at least i don't have to panic ( just watch and tweak )

a LOT of the cash injected since 2022 has been the proceeds of take-overs , and bought a farm to boot

i guess it is just a matter of survival ( of me and the companies i invested in )

am currently way under the 'reverse index ETFs i was holding early 2020 ( when i had a fair bit PLUS cash )

GOR is still to be completely taken over , depending on when the crash arrives , i will be less cashed up but firmly bolted in

i am half-expecting another K-shaped recovery ( with the unworthy mega-corps bailed out again ) and the companies i would like to invest in thrown to the wolves to survive as best they can ( can i pick the survivors , this time )

 

[mullokintyre]

In one of those masterstrokes of understatement,
View attachment 209334

Jerome Powell seems to think everything is going well under his watch.
So why then did the FED cease its reversal of balance sheet reduction?
Were they trying to prop up the Stock market so they could all unload on the unsuspecting retail traders?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Lotsa contrarians are coming out saying that the tariffs are going to work for Trump, interest rates will come down and investing in the USA is about to boom.

So maybe there won't be a crash.

gg

 

[farmerge]

Lotsa contrarians are coming out saying that the tariffs are going to work for Trump, interest rates will come down and investing in the USA is about to boom.

So maybe there won't be a crash.

gg

Or could all of this be another of The Trumpets Fake News!!!!