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LRK - Lark Distilling Co.

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Lots of speculation concerning the former CEO. Some of this speculation questions his integrity. In view of past shenanigans in the Tasmanian whiskey industry I hope the board arranges a thorough and independent audit of the current inventory.

I won't be buying this falling knife.
 
  • Net Sales of $10.4m, an increase of 78% on previous corresponding period
  • Operating Normalised EBITDA of $1.04m, an increase of 130% on pcp
  • GP% Margin of 61.9% a decline of 3.5 ppts on pcp as a result of supply chain constraints and changing channel mix as a result of COVID 19
  • Litres Under Maturation is 1.34m litres, an increase of 250k litres from 30 June 2021 and before adjusting for the Shene acquisition
  • Net Sales Value of the Whisky Bank at Maturation is $290m, up from $236m as at 30 June 2021 and before adjusting for the Shene acquisition
  • Cash at Bank at 31 December 2021 of $56.2m, with an additional $10m available through NAB Debt Facility
An extensive global search had commenced in December 2021. This process has now been accelerated, and we are pleased to report we are in discussion with a mix of well experienced, high calibre candidates. Laura McBain will continue to act as Managing Director and has committed to serve in this role until the right candidate has been appointed and joins the business.

Outlook
Lark has a comprehensive program during FY22 H2 for innovative new products and releases to celebrate and promote 30 years of Lark and Tasmanian whisky. This is an outstanding opportunity for the company to highlight its brand credentials and reinforce the legacy and significance of the Lark brand in Australia and globally.
An expanded and focused domestic sales team will drive distribution opportunities in Australia aimed at increasing Lark’s footprint nationally.

......So, seems to have stabilised, and the Litres under Maturation are as expected. But a lot is glitzy marketing which will only go so far.
 
Just for a lark, had a look at this one again since it's been more than one year. Price may have found a bottom as there is a higher low on the daily. It's not ready yet for me.



Looked through their FY23 H1 investor briefing. Good margins but huge costs.
Noticed one picture that had me gagging.

How could anyone drink while having a haircut? Disgusting.
 
Never understood the enthusiasm for this business with the narrative speculators, including some small fundies that play that game. Its a horrible business burning through massive amounts of cash.

It may well be tradable though, @peter2, should be a fair bit of liquidity. If it survives!
 
Lark Distilling has downgraded its expectations on sales to $7.4 million for 2H23, down from $9.6 million recorded in the prior period.

.... fickle market. In a promotion for 'exotic Tasmania as a foodie paradise', the state now has 80 whiskey and other distilleries , $670 million of single malt under maturation and annual production of $424 million. Bubble??.
 

Just about everyone is making a Whiskey or Gin these days.
 
Things haven't improved for Lark since the last post nearly a year ago.

No sign of a bottom on the chart, but I wonder if at the current valuation there could be takeover interest from one of the big players in the drinks industry?

I might keep an eye on this one.
 

I visited them when I went to Tasmania a few weeks ago, they have a nice set up. Sadly, they did not get a sale from me because of their service.
 
Good afternoon
three yearly week chart says it all really:



But some movements above the Simple and Weighted moving averages ... explore further ... with monthly daily chart:





Nice gain.
Plenty of reading in the Announcements section to be undertaken. Do note however
Lark director Warren Randall’s Seppeltsfield Wines tipped in $15 million. Under the agreement, the Barossa Valley winery would provide premium barrels for 10 years with Lark holding one-way exclusivity as well as an option to extend the supply agreement by another decade. The barrels, which Lark uses to mature its whisky, are central to Lark’s ambitions to expand locally and overseas.

It would also take Randall from about 3.8 per cent of the register to 19.5 per cent, not far off the maximum permissible 19.99 per cent under takeover rules.
See attachment.

Not holding.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Attachments

  • Strategic-Partnership-and-Equity-Raising (1).PDF
    246.7 KB · Views: 36
*****LOGIC BEHIND CHOICE OF FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION (and January 2025 tip)***** @mullokintyre

Lark Distilling Company (LRK) possesses a share price that has been languishing for quite some time, however does appear to have found a bottom since mid-2024, with further improvement since their earnings report in August, with the share price improving and then retracing to successfully test the 30 week moving average and various volume profile areas of support, with the charts suggesting a bullish sentiment and logic for choice within the stock tipping competition.

Personal disclosure of holding shares in the company also.

 

I like Lark, great business model and the Whiskey is top notch. The only downside I see is Australia’s regressive tax system, and the potential of a decade of poor economic conditions.

I’m watching closely.
 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

January 2025 - Following on from the initial logic of choice for Lark Distilling Company (LRK) at the end of last month, it appears that the share price has been on a sideways trajectory stuck between various volume profile areas and rangebound between $1.06 and $1.16 ever since, closing beneath both 10 and 30 day MA's at the end of the last full trading week of January on 25th January. Caution is now expressed in the charts for these reasons, with the share price re-testing areas seen previously at the beginning of December (i.e.: volume profile areas of $0.98/$1.00) should the range bound area of trade fail in the future.



Weekly notes available at the following TradingView link:

 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

February 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Lark Distilling Company (LRK), the share price has continued it's sideways trajectory stuck between various volume profile areas and rangebound between $1.035 and $1.16. As noted previously in TradingView, now awaiting a signal prior to further action in relation to this stock - perhaps release of half year results this coming Tuesday may be the required catalyst for some action to break out of the current trading zone?

 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

March 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Lark Distilling Company (LRK), half year results released towards the end of February couldn't shift the share price out of the sideways trajectory that was mentioned in last month's comment. In fact, the share price struggled to regain momentum to push back through the volume profile areas located at $1.06/$1.07 or the 10 and 30 day moving averages above, which resulted in a declining share price which re-tested prior support areas that were referred to in January's comment. As we approach the end of March, it appears that these volume profile areas of support are also failing. At this rate, it looks very possible that prior support areas of $0.905 (from the open of 28th August 2024) and $0.85 (from the open of 8th August 2024) could possibly be tested as the next levels of support.

 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

April 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Lark Distilling Company (LRK), the prior volume profile areas of support failed, as did the prior support areas of $0.905 and $0.85 before forming a new low of $0.815 on 9th April. A retest of the $0.905 level was shortlived and we now find the shareprice settling at the $0.85 support level towards the end of the month with volume exceptionally low and the shareprice currently closed below both 10 and 30 day MA's at the end of the final full week of the trading month. The charts suggest that the shareprice is now stuck in a trading range between $0.82 (potential support from the open of 10th April) and $0.905 (long-term support, now resistance, from the open of 28th August 2024), until proven otherwise, awaiting further direction.

 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

May 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Lark Distilling Company (LRK), it is obvious that this stock is in a clear downtrend having now failed yet another support level being the potential support level of $0.82 noted in last month's update (that level was proven to be a support level, now resistance, with the volume spike noted on 16th May and the failure to rise back above that level on the 21st May). Time to accept that this choice of stock is a complete and total dud. Reversal of trend not on the cards until resistance levels noted in previous posts have been challenged and successfully tested and cleared.

 
Ferret said:
I'm picking LRK for the June comp.

The chart continues to look awful, but I think a takeover is looking more and more likely.
Click to expand...
as long as WOW ( or more likely EDV ) DON'T do a distribution deal with them , that would really risk a near death experience .

i have seen several company have fading fortunes while trying to please WOW/EDV
 
Interesting thoughts guys - throwing out a curve ball and drawing out a long-bow here, but my scans this weekend has shown some high relative volume activity in TWE... Sparks of activity in this space overall perhaps?
 
I was thinking a takeover by one of the big internationals. Maybe Diageo or Kirin, but EDV or TWE might be possibilities.
 
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