July 2025 DDD

[qldfrog]

Is Silver Starting to Make a move Duc?.....Looks okay Today!....First majestic up nearly 3%

Up 6.42% today as i type and coeur mining 5% in my portfolio

 

[ducati916]

AG





On the move.

• Everybody's wrong about Crypto.
• Bitcoin is just another Tech bellwether.
• Speculative high-growth stocks are going higher.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency are not a new asset class.

They're just more technology stocks.

Everybody's wrong about this.

And they've held themselves back by putting Bitcoin and Crypto on a pedestal.

My Personal Evolution​

I started trading Crypto back in 2013 when I was given Bitcoin by a founder and CEO of a startup whom I met through mutual friends.

But it wasn't until 2015 that I started including Bitcoin in my chartbooks.

Funny thing, looking back, I actually included it with all my other currency charts, like the US Dollar, the Euro, and the Japanese Yen.

I assumed, because they were called "Cryptocurrencies," they should be treated as currencies.

That's how little I knew. And I was wrong.

But, hey, at least I was there. At least I was trying.

I'd changed my mind by the time the 2017 Crypto rally got started.

Names like Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) were making big moves as well, so it was no longer just Bitcoin.

It was a whole new asset class... or so I thought.

And I was wrong... again.

It took me a few cycles to finally come to the realization that these things are not a separate asset class at all.

They are not Currencies. They are not Commodities.

They are not some new thing.

They are just stocks.

For a while you had to open an account separate from your old-school brokerage account to trade them. That's changing.

But inconvenience is no reason to treat them as a separate asset class.

It wasn't until about 2020 or so that I finally realized the truth.

When we talk about Cryptocurrencies or "Tokens" or "Coins," we're talking about the same things.

These are different words to describe code that can be traded onchain.

(That's another thing: "Onchain" is now one word. See how I evolve with the times? It's tough to keep up sometimes, but I'm here for you!)

And these Cryptocurrencies are just stocks. They are Technology stocks.

Within Technology you have different industry groups such as Hardware, Semiconductors, Software, Cloud Computing, Electronics, and more.

Crypto is just one of those. With a total aggregate value of about $3.5 trillion, it's not the largest subsector, nor is it the smallest.

It's just another Tech subsector, no big deal.

Each Tech subsector has its bellwethers – think Nvidia (NVDA) for Semis, Microsoft (MSFT) for Software.

Bitcoin is the bellwether for Crypto.

Turning to the Data​

I kind of wish Crypto was its own asset class.

I wish Bitcoin and other Cryptos didn't move with stocks.

I would love nothing more than to add an additional uncorrelated asset class to my arsenal, like we have with Commodities and Bonds and Forex.

I wish we did. But we don't.

Cryptos are just more stocks.

They are high-beta stocks – they tend to move more than lower-volatility stocks.

Here's a chart of Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs after a multi-year consolidation starting in late 2021 following the post-COVID rally:



Notice how the ratio of S&P 500 High Beta vs Low Volatility (the black line) did the exact same thing through this entire period.

The black line rallied after COVID, stopped rising in 2021, then consolidated for a few years.

Now it's hitting new all-time highs... just like Bitcoin!

I encourage you to look at the stocks within the S&P 500 High Beta Index.

You'll find a lot of Technology and plenty of Consumer Discretionary stocks.

You won't find much Real Estate or Consumer Staples. Those are the types of things you'll find in the Low Volatility Index.

High Beta includes stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Micron Technology (MU) and, of course, Nvidia.

When you overlay a chart of Bitcoin, they look a lot like it.

That's because Cryptos are Tech stocks.

I was wrong about that 12 years ago. I was still wrong about that 10 years ago. But I smartened up.

Most people haven't gotten there yet. They're still wrong.

Cryptos are just more stocks. Let's treat them that way until they prove otherwise.

And they're going up... just like stocks.

Stay sharp,

Delta Air Lines just delivered another blockbuster quarter. They reported the 3rd-straight double beat, and the market rewarded shareholders with one of the stock's strongest earnings reactions ever. This is a reflection of a company firing on all cylinders. The key drivers? High-margin premium cabins, a booming loyalty business, and industry-leading operational performance - even in the face of severe weather disruptions. Their customer base is prioritizing experience over price, and it shows in the numbers. Revenue from premium and loyalty segments continues to climb, offsetting weakness in main cabin and off-peak travel. At the same time, cargo and maintenance operations are quietly contributing more to the top line. This company is growing earnings, buying back stock, raising dividends, and executing at a high level - all in an industry that has been largely left for dead by investors. If there’s an airline to bet on, it’s this one.

Here are the latest S&P 500 earnings stats

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*Click the image to enlarge it Delta Air Lines $DAL had a +3.54 reaction score after reporting a double beat. The company reported revenues of $15.51B, versus the expected $15.46B, and earnings per share of $2.10, versus the expected $2.06. Conagra Brands $CAG had a -2.88 reaction score after reporting a double miss. The company reported revenues of $2.78B, versus the expected $2.83B, and earnings per share of $0.56, versus the expected $0.58. Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with these reports

DAL had its 4th-best earnings reaction ever

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Delta Air Lines rallied 12% after this earnings report, and here's why:

They achieved record quarterly revenue with pretax income of $1.8B–$2.1B. The strong financial performance allowed the company to announce a $1B share repurchase program through June 2028. In addition to the tremendous quarter, the management team restored its full-year EPS guidance and announced a 25% dividend increase.

This company has been outperforming its peers, and this quarter's financial results show why. They're crushing it! The stock had its 2nd-best earnings reaction ever last quarter, and followed it up with the 4th-best earnings reaction ever this quarter. Price is now trading at the highest level since March, and challenging the 61.8% retracement of the prior drawdown. If and when the bulls reclaim this level, we expect to see new all-time highs follow. If DAL is above 56.50, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.

CAG has been punished for 6 of its last 8 earnings reports

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Conagra Brands fell 4.4% after this earnings report, and here's why:

Organic net sales declined by 3.5% during the quarter and by 2.9% for the full year. Free cash flow fell by 20% year-over-year. The management team expects new tariffs to increase the cost of goods by 7%.

As you can see, this earnings report decisively put the finishing touches on a multi-decade distribution pattern. The stock has also been punished for 6 of its last 8 earnings reports. We expect the technicals and fundamentals to continue deteriorating. If CAG is below 20, the path of least resistance is lower for the foreseeable future.

Friday, July 11th, 2025

Oil prices are set for a marginal weekly gain after the commodity markets’ worst-case scenario – US President Trump announcing tariffs on most of the world – was temporarily averted, with the White House postponing the decision-making deadline to August. Meanwhile, the return of the ‘Houthi missile factor’ adds to oil’s geopolitical risk premium and helped to keep ICE Brent around $70 per barrel, with further upside coming from Trump’s flaunted ‘major’ Russia announcement this upcoming Monday.

OPEC Cuts Short-Term Growth, Boosts the Future. In its 2025 World Oil Outlook, OPEC boosted its global demand outlook as the oil group expects consumption to reach 122.9 million b/d by 2050, adding more than 19 million b/d over the next 25 years, banking on Indian, African and Middle Eastern growth.

UAE Flexes Production Capacity Muscle. Speaking at OPEC’s summer seminar in Vienna, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said that the Middle Eastern country could be producing 6 million b/d of crude by 2027 if required, almost double its current levels as OPEC+ unwinds its voluntary cuts.

Europe’s Diesel Woes Turn Even Worse. The July pricing spread between diesel prices in Asia and Europe widened further to a whopping $120 per metric tonne, the widest since October 2022, as the UK’s bankrupt Lindsey refinery forced Northwest European refiners to pay up for spot available cargoes.

EU Pitches Idea of Floating Russia Cap. After the EU’s initial suggestion to lower Russia’s oil price cap from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel failed to garner the support of US President Trump, the European Commission now proposed having a floating Russian oil price cap, adjusted depending on global prices.

Tariffs Set Up Coffee for a Megarally. The Trump administration’s planned 50% tariff on Brazilian goods (despite having a $7.4 billion trade surplus) would most probably trigger a steep rally in US coffee prices, currently trading at $2.84 per futures contract, as Brazil currently accounts for 35% of US imports.

Puerto Rico LNG Deals Are Hard to Get. US LNG developer New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) has been on a rollercoaster ride lately after its 15-year term LNG deal to supply Puerto Rico initially lifted its stock, only to collapse after the island’s regulatory watchdog halted the deal over monopoly concerns.

Houthis Send Tanker Insurance Soaring. The insurance costs of shipping goods through the Red Sea has more than doubled since the beginning of this week, as Houthi attacks sunk two Greek-owned bulkers, with war risk premiums now assessed at 0.7% of the value of the ship, up from 0.3% a week ago.

Nigeria’s Top Refiner Mulls Local Supply. Africa’s largest private refiner, the Nigerian Dangote refinery, expects to rely on Nigerian crude exclusively by the end of the year after its term supply deals for US WTI run out, having so far locally sourced 270,000 b/d out of the plant’s total 450,000 b/d needs.

Gunvor Shuts Rotterdam Refinery. Global commodity trader Gunvor has decided to halt all terminal activities at the Europoort oil refinery in Rotterdam, Netherlands, seven months after it mothballed the processing units at the 80,000 b/d plant, formerly owned by Kuwait’s national oil company KPC.

Saudi Eyes More US LNG Deals. Saudi Arabia’s national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is reportedly in talks with US LNG developer Commonwealth LNG to secure 2 million tonnes of LNG per year from its planned facility in Cameron, LA, whilst also assessing the Delfin LNG and Lake Charles LNG projects.

Mars Prices Shrink on Metal Contamination. Differentials of US medium sour benchmark Mars, the largest oil stream in the Gulf of America, sank to a $0.10 per barrel discount to WTI after reports of zinc contamination in the crude, with the corrosive metal making it harder for refiners to run it.

China Doubles Down on Saudi Oil. Chinese refiners are maximizing imports of Saudi barrels, nominating 51 million barrels of August-loading cargoes and marking the highest monthly request since April 2023, despite Saudi Aramco hiking next month’s formula prices by more than $1 per barrel.

Egypt Buys a Lot of LNG, Lacks Terminals. Several LNG suppliers that have supply term deals with Egypt postponed their July-arrival deliveries after the launch of two new FSRUs along the Egyptian coast got delayed, with both Energos Power and Energos Eskimo receiving their cool-down cargo only this week.

In the Trump administration's war with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, there is a new front — ostensibly about beehives and rooftop gardens, but really a fight for control of the U.S. central bank. Why it matters: The White House and allies in Congress appear to be using the Fed's over-budget $2.5 billion headquarters renovation to build a case for removing Powell for cause before his term ends next spring. It's part of an all-out assault on Powell that has expanded in recent weeks as the president has become enraged that the Fed isn't cutting rates. Driving the news: Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, sent a letter to Powell yesterday stating that President Trump "is extremely troubled by your management of the Federal Reserve System" and asking a series of pointed questions about what he called an "ostentatious overhaul" of the Fed's Washington, D.C., real estate. State of play: The project includes the Fed's main headquarters on the National Mall and another historic building next door — a long-term effort by the Fed to consolidate its operations. Planning documents include high-end features that critics have seized upon, like a private elevator leading to an executive dining room and rooftop gardens with beehives. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said in a hearing last month that "when senior citizens can barely afford Formica countertops, it sends the wrong message to spend public money on luxury upgrades that feel more like they belong in the Palace of Versailles than a public institution." Yes, but: Powell told Congress that many of these high-end features are not included in the final project. "There are no new water features. There's no beehives and there's no roof terrace garden," Powell said, adding that "inflammatory things" in media coverage of the project — presumably referring to the New York Post, which has been all over the story — are "not in the current plan." Vought's letter posits that if those elements, included in the Fed's submissions to the National Capital Planning Commission approved in 2021, have indeed been scrapped, then the project is out of compliance with a law governing National Mall construction. Between the lines: The subtext of the letter is clear — either Powell lied to Congress or the Fed has violated the National Capital Planning Act. Of note: The project has been underway for years without Congressional outcry. It's hardly been a secret, either. Planning documents submitted to the NCPC were made public in 2021. The Wall Street Journal published a front-page story about cost overruns in 2023. The Federal Reserve Act quite explicitly gives the Fed control over its real estate, stating that the Board of Governors "may maintain, enlarge, or remodel any building or buildings" it has acquired or built "and shall have sole control of such building or buildings and space therein." What they're saying: "The problem is not that the Fed should never be questioned about its budgets," wrote Peter Conti-Brown, at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "Those questions are well within the realm of appropriate oversight." "The problem is that these questions, from these sources, with these kinds of florid metaphors, are coming in a context of rank partisan hostility toward the Fed for precisely one reason: interest rates are not low enough to satisfy the sitting US president," he added. "To the extent that Fed independence counts for anything, it counts for this," wrote Conti-Brown.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Data on passive flows:




Of course passive has to actually transact, buy or sell. That is the alogo. buy if you have cash, sell if redeeming.





Passive drives valuations into bubble territory. Which is where we are now.



If (when) passive moves into reverse....nothing much below.




You'll need a magnifying glass to read but essentially the active fund holds +/- cash as a position. This cash is will under normal circumstances be enough to pay redemptions.

Vanguard on the other hand has a cash balance of negative $1 Billion as they will not (cannot) sell to fund redemptions as their selling could panic the market (insufficient liquidity).



Currently active is losing money to passive.



Passive allocates to the winners no matter how 'overvalued'.



This is a very interesting chart.

Essentially a cut in the FFR will actually cause a contraction in the economy as recipients have the marginal propensity to spend this income as high as 90%. You lower interest rates, you lower spending, you lower GDP, you increase the burden of debt.

Only when you reach ZIRP does this dynamic shift.





Inflation = labour force participation.

Another very interesting observation. A slightly different take on Friedman's inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. If you think about it, the two actually dovetail.




With NVDA reaching a market cap of $4 Trillion last week, playing out in real time.




Which leads to the conclusion that BTC is a Ponzi scheme.

The correct strategy is to hold (hodl) BTC. This can now be seen in spades as the significant increase in BTC Treasury companies mimic MSTR and Mr Saylor.

BTC has no utility other than fuelling the ponzi ladder.

Gold is different.



Gold is utilised in trade as money good. China has resurrected gold's money function that the US has tried to kill. Money has the highest utility of any good or service.

Gold also increases in volume by about 2%/year from mining. This is important. BTC like monopoly money is hard stopped at 21 million coins. The argument that it is infinitely divisible is true. However with hoarding as its only utility, that is proving a fruitless argument.

Gold also has a kissing cousin, silver, which is also a monetary metal and allows a greater dispersion of metal worldwide. Historically the ratio was 15:1 but when silver was used as money, day-to-day about 9:1.

So this same phenomena could work with gold and BTC. But either gold needs to rise a lot or BTC needs to fall significantly to find that market equilibrium where money utility is found.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

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​ Actually, it was the headline: “Jamie Dimon, money managers warn that market is ignoring red flags.” To which I thought: Ya think? The knock on Jamie Dimon is that he’s often overly cautionary. I’d say he’s appropriately realistic. After all, he runs the country’s largest commercial bank – JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) – giving him a unique insight not just into the economy, but business trends. I do confess... I have a soft spot in my heart for Dimon. We both had open heart surgery one day apart five years ago. He in New York, me in Cleveland. His was an unplanned death-defying repair of a bursting ascending aortic aneurysm, which is a one-way trip into the hospital for most people who suffer that fate. Mine was a planned replacement of my aortic valve and repair of part of my ballooning but not-yet-burst ascending aorta... the latter to minimize the chances of experiencing what Dimon did. But regardless of whether it’s a bursting aorta, a valve replacement or even a bypass, open heart surgery can be a life-changer. Or more than that, the ordeal can be a reality check on the lottery of life, resulting in a rearrangement of priorities with heightened clarity and candor. Dimon has never been one to hold back, but what’s clear is that now more than ever, with nothing to lose, he’s arguably speaking from the heart. I think he’s right that investors are complacent – which is always the case when stocks are spiraling higher. And investors are increasingly ambivalent about the cross-currents of geopolitical and domestic political events. Or as my friend Peter Atwater, who writes the Financial Insyghts newsletter and studies crowd behavior for contrarian signals says, "They've won so many times that they are now certain the system is rigged in their favor." Even if the risks are front-and-center. Of course, there are those like my pal JC Parets, a technical analyst and chairman of Stock Market Media. He often says to just look at the charts instead of the headlines... because in his world view most pundits are usually wrong. Well, maybe... sometimes. And there's the old John Maynard Keynes line about the market staying irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Very true. That doesn't mean to party like it's 2021 again without forgetting what happened in 2022... when the market proved, yet again, what a great humbler it can be. That’s why I fly red flags... I do it because in a world where most people want to only know how they can make money, few people focus on what might go wrong and how they can lose itI do it for people like subscriber Charles F., who after my series on WhatsApp stock scams, wrote, “Thank you for reminding us to be ever vigilant.” Given that we’re now living in the Golden Age of Grift, I’d say you need to be more vigilant than ever.

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​ Speaking of the WhatsApp stock scam... I’ve been railing in my reports about how the Nasdaq can allow these companies to trade, including the most recent .” But what about the brokerage firms that let trades in these stocks occur? And more than that... What about Meta ($META), which facilitates fake come-on ads on Facebook and Instagram... and then hosts the scamsters on WhatsApp? Well... last month a class action lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court’s Northern Districtgoing after Meta for its role in the scam involving China Liberal Education ($CLEU), which I mentioned in my first report. “If not for Meta’s advertising tools,” the suit says, “the CLEU scammers would not have been able to accomplish their scheme on the scale and with the efficiency they achieved.” There are some interesting first amendment issues stirred here as it applies to the Internet. Definitely worth watching. What I can say... this is not just another plaintiff’s suit.

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​ Moving on... post-mortem on Post... If you missed my report on Post Holdings ($POST). Long-story short: I wrote it before Ferrero group announced it is acquiring WK Kellogg and Kraft Heinz is breaking itself up. The food industry, you might say, is in play!

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​ Finally, are meme stocks merely multi-level marketers in disguise? Not quite, but MLMs clearly offer some lessons. Or so says Robert Fitzpatrick, who wrote the book, “Ponzinomics,” which is all about multi-level marketers.

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​ I originally met Robert more than 10 years ago when I was at CNBC doing research for a documentary on Herbalife ($HLF) which was quite controversial at the time. He probably knew (and still knows) more about the dark side of MLMs than most. He reached out the other day after reading on the market – notably when I mentioned that “I don’t know what to believe anymore” regarding some of these stocks...

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​ Setting the Stage...​

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​ Since Robert has spent so much time on schemes and scams, what I wrote no doubt struck a chord with him. I thought what he wrote was worth sharing. Robert started by weighing in with his comparison to MLMs, setting the stage with his definition of Ponzinomics...

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​ A pseudo-economic, all-encompassing, delusional belief system that promotes the swindle of a Ponzi or pyramid scheme as a valid economic model that promises believers a fulfilling and financially rewarding way of life, complete with mission, values, leadership and worldview. The societal spread of Ponzinomics is necessarily accompanied by governmental collusion.

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​ He then continued...

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​ Tell Them What to Believe...​

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​ As you might remember, in the novel, 1984, the protagonist, Winston Smith, wondered if the authoritarian powers might declare that "2 and 2 make 5”, and that if people accepted it, would it then be “true”? The Ruling Party had already decreed that "War Is Peace, Freedom Is Slavery, and Ignorance Is Strength” to be “true.” So, as you ask, can something with no value be overvalued? Could sheer belief and belief alone, with no other tangible asset — determine a stock’s “value"? Multi-level marketing offers some lessons... It is now a vast “industry,” with as many as 1,000 enterprises in the USA. Millions of people invest it in each year and 99% always lose, year in and year out. Nevertheless, it has operated as a “legitimate business opportunity" since 1979. MLM’s “business model" is based on the declaration that the recruiting chain on which the promised “returns" are based is “endless”. It declares that wherever and whenever you buy a position on the recruiting chain, you are “at the beginning.” So MLM's obvious lie and contradiction of objective reality is now “true," as declared by authorities. And millions of people invest in MLMs on that “truth.” Then, with millions involved, the recruiters can say, “How could it be a fraud, when millions of people are involved?” MLM is based on "continuous collapse" – 50% or more of all participants quit within a year, after losing, but the bubble is maintained as those dropouts are replaced. The process of churning losers continues and its very continuation covers up the reality of the 99% losses.

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​ Enter Meme Stocks...​

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​ Meme stocks and crypto attract millions of investors based on a “belief" that is based on millions having invested. When the belief erodes, the collapse will be sudden and catastrophic, unlike MLM which is like a termite infestation that eats away at a foundation over time, sapping away savings and hopes mostly of people at the margin, not pension and hedge funds. (BTW, MLM is in significant decline in the USA, down about 25% in inflation-factored dollars since 2020. “Anti-MLM” sentiment is exploding.) I think we all know how crypto and meme stocks will end, but who dares to say it? At a certain point – to challenge the lie that two and two make five results in cancellation, dismissal or even persecution... not just by authorities but by the believers. That’s the place we are in right now on the meme stocks and crypto, and in other arenas too, such as national debt.

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​ What Does ‘Meme’ Even Mean?​

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​ The word “meme” is derived from Greek, meaning “imitated thing.” The term was invented by Richard Dawkins and then it developed into various theories associated not just with cultural transmission but biological evolution. In all those theories, I have not seen much attention to whether a meme that is a lie, a direct contradiction of objective reality – like two and two make five – can survive long term or what would be the consequences to humans. If lies have terrible consequences, e.g., racism – and they certainly do, e.g, slavery and genocide – then truth-telling – that is, contradicting the meme – must also be part of the evolutionary process, with survival depending upon it. Orwell defined tyranny as having to accept that two and two equal five, and he famously wrote that “Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus makes four.” The lack of voices willing to call out MLM, meme stocks, and crypto reflect a level of tyranny.

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Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. This is a classic leadership scan. We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. This week’s standout is Materials, holding steady at the number four spot in our sector rankings.

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It’s not the first time we’ve highlighted Materials since we began publishing this scan. Strength has been quietly building under the surface for a while now. Just last week, $XLB posted its best relative performance versus the broader market in over five years. I'm open to the idea of a big rotation into cyclicals in the back half of this year. Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows metals and miningjumping into the top 20.

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Metals are breaking out across the board—Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum… all making moves at the same time. These are the Top 10 metals and mining names, sorted by relative strength.

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First Majestic Silver $AG is on the leaderboard once again! We’re already long this one—and for good reason. It’s breaking out of a base with authority. If we’re right about this rotation into materials and metals, $AG is one of the names we want to be in. However, my favorite setup this week is a $2.4B company that makes fire safety products and specialty chemical solutions. Here’s Perimeter Solutions $PRM.

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Perimeter Solutions has been basing since coming public in November 2021. After a couple failed breakout attempts, price is piercing through the upper bounds of this multi-year range — and this time looks different. I like PRM above 15, with a primary target of 22 and a secondary objective of 35 over longer timeframes.

​ ​ ​ ​ I flew into Baltimore this morning on a 6AM flight. Two hours of sleep, if that. First flight since my treatments. I felt a little off—like I was floating—but I also felt alive. That’s the thing. My brain doesn’t shut off. It never has. Since I was a kid, it’s just run. Full speed. No pause button. No peace. People talk about rest. I don’t know what that means. I’ve never felt it. And if I’m honest, I’m not sure I want to. Because if you want to be great at anything, you have to be obsessed. And not the curated, tweetable kind of obsessed. I mean the messy, lonely, uncomfortable version. The one where your mind won’t let go of a signal. Where you’re replaying trades in your head while everyone else is sleeping. And that brings me back to The Fountainhead. Howard Roark didn’t ask for permission. He didn’t conform. He built, and he built the way he knew was right—even when the world told him he was wrong. Even when it cost him everything. That’s what it feels like when you go all in on trading. The world won’t understand your obsession. They won’t see the beauty in your process. They’ll mock your system. Doubt your edge. Laugh when you fall. But they don’t get to have an opinion. Because they’re not in the arena. You are. That’s what makes trading so brutal—and so pure. The scoreboard is real. The risk is real. The journey is unforgiving. But if you stay with it… if you build your own framework and don’t flinch when others fold—you win. So if you’re tired, keep going. If you're misunderstood, keep going. If you feel alone in your vision—congratulations. That means you’re on the right path. You don’t need the world to get it. You just need the strength to keep building. “I don’t build in order to have clients. I have clients in order to build.” — Howard Roark Rip the word can’t out of your vocabulary. This is the work. This is the reward.

​ ​ Friday, July 11, 2025 ​ ​ ​ ​ MARKET SUMMARY ​ ​ Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.21% | S&P 500 -0.33% | Dow -0.63% | Russell 2000 -1.26% Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, rising +0.45%. Financials lagged, falling -1.04%. Commodities: Crude Oil rose +2.82% to $68.45 per barrel. Gold rose +1.15% to $3,364 per oz. Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.30% to $97.87. Crypto: Bitcoin is up +1.44% at a record high of $117,701. Ethereum is up +0.23% at a five-month high of $2,958. Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +3.93% to 16.39. Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.417%. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ CHART OF THE DAY ​ ​ ​ Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Jim Knarr (@ChartMonitor). Silver futures jumped +4.4% today, closing at a 13-year high of $39/oz. It spent the past month coiling into a tight range before breaking out today. Price is entering rare air, with little resistance standing between current levels and the 2011 all-time high near $49/oz. $SLV has outperformed $GLD by +20% since mid-April, yet Jim notes that Google searches for $GLD remain historically elevated, while interest in $SLV remains relatively muted. The Takeaway: Silver broke out to a fresh 13-year high today, with little overhead resistance before testing its 2011 peak. It’s quietly outperforming Gold, but the crowd isn’t paying attention yet.

Today's number is... 8
My canaries in a coal mine just sang loud and clear: all eight of my key risk areas of the market are now trading above their 200-day moving averages.
Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The chart is divided into eight panels, each tracking the daily price for a different sector or industry group. The red line marks the 200-day moving average in each panel.

The Takeaway: From Semiconductors to Small Caps to Steel — everything is back in gear.
That’s the strongest internal signal we’ve seen all year from this list.

These eight canaries are my market’s warning system.
If something’s breaking beneath the surface, this is where it usually shows up first.

But right now, they’re all flying in formation — above their 200-day moving averages — and pointing to expanding strength, not hidden stress.

Semiconductors are leading with fresh highs. Biotech and Steel are coming off the mat after long slumps. Small Caps and Banks have reclaimed trend. Homebuilders, Retail, and Transports are grinding higher with improving structure.
It’s not just the AI trade or the Mag 7 anymore — this is broad participation.

And it’s getting broader every day this bull market continues.
Bull markets aren’t built on a handful of leaders.
They’re powered by participation.

And when all eight of these groups are trending higher in sync, the internal engine is healthy.
Pullbacks can happen anytime. But this isn’t what market tops look like.
Do you think this rally’s running on fumes?
Let me know!

July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight​

Since 1990, the Friday of monthly options expiration week in July has a bearish bias for DJIA declining 21 times in 35 years with two unchanged years, 1991 and 1995. On Friday the average loss is 0.36% for DJIA and 0.35% for S&P 500. NASDAQ’s record is even weaker, down 23 of 35 years with an average loss of 0.46%. DJIA posts the best full-week performance, up 21 of 35 with an average 0.39% gain. However, NASDAQ has been weakest, down 21 times and the last seven straight with an average 0.18% loss. The week after monthly options expiration also leans bearish for NASDAQ with an average loss compared to mild gains from DJIA and S&P 500.

After several false starts, the world’s largest cryptocurrency finally got it done. With some solid momentum right out the gate, my only question is… How far will it run? And I think it’s bigger than BTC this time around. I’m looking for the altcoins to finally buy in and kick off a broad crypto bull market. If you look beyond the blue-chip alts, most of these tokens have been going through accumulation for years— carving out massive rounding bottoms. I’m looking for these patterns to morph into fresh uptrends… one after the next. And soon. What I’m really saying is get ready for an altcoin summer. And here’s the main reason why.

​

The squeeze indicator in the lower pane shows that volatility is absolutely depressed in BTC, and has been for a while. Normally, this would tell us a big move is brewing. But Bitcoin is breaking out as we speak, so a big move is literally happening now. The crossover system on the indicator gives a reliable signal for when a new expansion or contraction phase is underway. It just flashed, suggesting this resolution could see major follow-through, similar to the election rally last year. However, I’m less excited about BTC and more excited about its crypto peers. They are all sporting these volatility squeeze setups to varying degrees. Here’s Ripple $XRP, which is the most extreme example out there.

​

After a historic momentum surge in Q4 of last year, Ripple settled into a consolidation pattern and has been digesting those gains constructively for the last six months. Now this is an altcoin. Volatility doesn’t remain this tight for long. This contraction formation has already coiled for an extended period, making it a rare setup. And what it really means is we should expect fireworks. So, I don’t think the move will fizzle this weekend. I don’t think it ends next week. Or next month. Of course, there will be some backing and filling and dips to buy along the way. But these cryptos are just starting to go now… after doing nothing all year. And the early momentum is saying these breakouts are valid. Due to the nature of the consolidations— the way volatility was squeezed so tight for so long— the reaction rallies could be epic. Volatility contraction is like fuel. Think of these consolidations like putting gas in the tank for the next move. The longer they coil, the more energy they build. I don’t know how high Ripple goes this time, but I haven’t seen compression like this in a while. The altcoin was up about 450% in a month’s time following the election last year. So I think it would behoove you to think big with this one. The setup is there. The breakout is on. Happy altcoin summer.

​

Do you own enough crypto exposure? One way I like to add juice without depleting too much capital is via options. And god bless America, because these options really do give us options! We now have a highly liquid options market for spot Ethereum ETFs like ETHA. I initially bought ETHA calls in early June… and we doubled down last week because the setup was just that good. We sold a double today, but I think the move is just getting started.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• This data is impossible to find.
• Even if you get your hands on it, it's a mess.
• What it reveals can supercharge your trading.

Most people don't know what to do with short interest data.

That's not an insult. That's just the truth.

Take the latest FINRA report, for example. It came out on Wednesday, July 10.

It's impossible to find, and even if you get it it's a mess.

Here's what I'm talking about:



Yeah... good luck with that.

It's raw. It's massive.

And unless you enjoy parsing a hundred thousand rows of tickers and numbers, you're going to miss what matters.

That's where we come in.

We Turn the Noise Into Signals​

At The Divergence, we specialize in identifying short interest pivot points – inflection areas where sentiment, price, and positioning collide.

We take that unreadable FINRA dump and turn it into clean, actionable scans.

For example, here's our Equity Squeeze Table, sorted by the difference in short interest in dollar value as a percentage of total market capitalization:



Not surprisingly, the table is filled with speculative junk:

• BigBear.ai (BBAI)
• GameStop (GME)
• Sunrun (RUN)

But that's the point.

This is where the fastest money moves when it's time to squeeze.

And to be clear, this table was generated from the previous FINRA report.

We'll be publishing a brand-new list based on Wednesday's updated data next week – exclusively for Divergence members.

Same Junk, New Confluence​

Now here's another view: same data source, different filter.

This time, we're ranking names by 10-day rate of change and layering in short interest, days to cover, and RSI:



Guess who tops this list, too?

BigBear.ai.

It leads both in short positioning and in momentum – a powerful confluence we're seeing across speculative names.

This is how we narrow the list – not just who's hated, but who's moving.

What to Watch: ARKK's Reversal​

If you want a macro lens into this whole rotation, look no further than the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK).

It's speculative tech. It's heavily shorted.

And it's breaking out of a massive bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern:



Short interest is at all-time highs.

Price is climbing out of a massive base.

And relative strength is improving.

This is precisely the kind of setup that shows up in our scans again and again.

The crowd is betting against innovation.

But that's when it gets interesting.

This isn't a trade idea. This is just what we're seeing.

The new FINRA short interest report just dropped.

We've cleaned it up and already found some interesting confluences.

The rotation back into speculative tech is gaining steam.

We provide the complete list – and deep dives on the most significant Pivot Points – in The Divergence.

But for now, just remember:

Everybody's wrong.

They think short interest data is unreadable.

We think it's the edge.

Stay sharp,

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and this week, we had a handful of Wall Street titans hit our list… as well as more activity in biotech. Here’s the most notable activity:

​

Point72 Asset Management, led by Steve Cohen, increased their stake in Celldex Therapeutics $CLDX from 3.95% to 6.70%. That’s a major step up — and it comes after a string of bullish biotech activity in recent weeks. Carl Icahn boosted his position in Centuri Holdings $CTRI, going from 6.02% to 7.22%. He’s already a known activist — and when he adds to a position, it’s rarely passive. Over in entertainment, Discovery Capital Management just re-established a 6.80% stake in AMC $AMC. Technically not an original filing — but they dumped this name at year-end 2024 and now they’re back Durable Capital filed a new 13G on Evolent Health $EVH, disclosing a 7.80% stake. This is a large, high-conviction bet from one of the more respected growth-focused funds in healthcare. Rubric Capital filed a new 13G on Transalta Corp $TAC, coming in with a 5.38% stake.

Search for the word “Powell” on X, as Twitter is now known, and you will swiftly conclude that the chairman of the Federal Reserve is about to resign, before he’s fired. The financial markets, and even the prediction markets, still find this a remote possibility. Which should we take seriously?

Odds of a departure in 2025 spiked earlier this year on Polymarket and Kalshi when President Donald Trump made an explicit threat to fire Jerome Powell, and subsided a few days later once he said that he had “no intention” of doing so. The tremors of the last few days have left Powell’s chances of surviving the year at a little better than 80% on both sites:


In more important financial markets, there’s no sign that the world’s most powerful central banker is about to lose his job. The MOVE index of bond market volatility spiked after the Liberation Day tariffs and the initial threat to fire Powell. It’s now at the bottom of its range:


The rates market also shows little concern. Powell is under fire for keeping rates too high. Any replacement will have to promise a more dovish monetary policy — and a number of well-qualified candidates did just that last week. But the futures market’s projected path of the fed funds rate has barely budged over the last two months. There is a Powell effect, as futures now see a significant easing after Powell’s last scheduled meeting as chairman in April — but it isn’t pricing in an early departure.


The problem with dismissing the Powell speculation is that the pressure now appears to be a coordinated campaign. The cri de guerre is that he deceived Congress over the expense of renovations to the Fed’s headquarters. These arguments are coming not just from the president, but from key allies.

A serious attempt at an ouster is plainly afoot. Bill Pulte, the federal director of housing finance, issued a somewhat sinister statement, saying he was “encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is considering resigning,” while adding: “The patriotic thing for Jerome Powell to do is to resign.” Russell Vought, head of the Office of Management and Budget, said Powell had “grossly mismanaged the Fed” and demanded answers within a week to allegations of cost overruns.


The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building during a renovation in 2023. Photographer: Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg
Finding a reason to dismiss Powell “for cause” makes things easier. But it’s bound to be interpreted by markets as an attack on central bank independence in order to push rates lower. They will treat it accordingly. That could be serious. To quote George Saravelos, head of FX strategy at Deutsche Bank AG:

The empirical and academic evidence on the impact of a loss of central bank independence is fairly clear: in extreme cases, both the currency and the bond market can collapse as inflation expectations move higher, real yields drop and broader risk premia increase on the back of institutional erosion. Interestingly, the impact on equities has been far more ambivalent given they are ultimately a claim on real assets. We would point to the example of rallying equities in Turkey during the unconventional monetary policy period of the CBT.

A Powell exit would be a big shock. Saravelos suggests the DXY dollar index would fall “at least 3% to 4%” in the first 24 hours, while long Treasury yields rose 30 to 40 basis points — a combination usually seen in emerging market crises, and similar to April’s response to Liberation Day. These charts show what those predictions would entail. The 10-year yield would come back to challenge its 2023 high, while the dollar would drop to a four-year low. Big moves but not a paradigm shift:



Ten-year yields back close to 5% are exactly what the administration doesn’t want, but exactly what it would deserve for a naked politicization of its central bank. Equities could be different. Longer yields would rise, but shorter term rates would fall with a new dove at the Fed. That should help equities in the short run, as this chart from Absolute Strategy Research makes clear:


Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy suggests that the stock market would get through this, as all the potential replacement candidates are “more than credible.” In the short run, they would likely add liquidity when conditions are already very stimulative (even if the administration desperately wants lower rates).

There are further issues. Powell might resign as chairman but maintain his seat as governor for another two years. The Fed’s regional governors might take a strong line against any new attempt at dovishness. All of them have voted in line with Powell over the last year, and their response could be critical.

This remains a dumb risk that doesn’t need to be taken. Powell oversaw a terrible policy mistake in 2021, but at present he’s presiding over declining inflation and low unemployment. There’s little upside to getting rid of him, while the downside is cavernous. Investors can see this, which is presumably why this extreme risk isn’t being priced, but it’s not clear the president does.




jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Trump's war on the Fed is taking a more concrete, legally actionable form — putting the central bank's independence in the crosshairs. Why it matters: For months, Trump's exasperation with Fed chair Jerome Powell over not cutting interest rates has taken the form of increasingly angry comments and social media posts. That pressure has entered a new phase that, if successful, could shock the global financial system. It would also set a new precedent for a president's ability to bend the leader of the world's most important central bank to his will. The big picture: Trump's appointees are trying to lay out legal predicates to fire Powell for cause — specifically, that the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project has included changes not approved by a federal planning authority, and/or that Powell lied to Congress about the project. That was the subtext of Office of Management and Budget director Russ Vought's letter to Powell last week. Powell denied to Congress last month that the project contains several luxury features. Vought's letter suggests that the Fed had changed plans that were blessed by the National Capital Planning Commission in 2021, thereby violating the National Capital Planning Act. Also last week, the president installed allies, including the White House staff secretary, to that very commission — normally the province of architects and historical preservationists. State of play: The new NCPC members have been quick to toe the White House line on the Fed's project. The new NCPC chair, Will Scharf — also a former personal lawyer to the president — said at an NCPC meeting last week that the Fed project includes "serious deviations" from plans the NCPC had approved. It looks like a "Taj Mahal near the National Mall," fellow Trump-appointed commissioner Michael Blair said, per reporting from Axios D.C.'s Cuneyt Dil. The other side: The Fed, as is its style, is responding in a restrained and legally precise way. It published an FAQ over the weekend to explain why its leaders believed the project was necessary and how it got so expensive — and looking to correct the record on some exaggerated reports of luxury features. The FAQ articulates the Fed's position that the Board of Governors alone controls its real estate decisions under the Federal Reserve Act, and that its cooperation with the NCPC is voluntary. Also this morning, as Axios first reported, Powell asked Fed inspector general Michael Horowitz to review the cost overruns and any other matters involving the building he deems appropriate. Yes, but: That's typical of the Fed's quiet, circling-the-wagons approach when it is in the thick of political disputes. It also may amount to bringing an FAQ to a gunfight, given the Trump administration's willingness to ignore norms and play legal hardball. Reality check: The building project has been underway — and cost overruns public knowledge — for years. There is little doubt that the administration's focus on the renovation is driven by the president's fury at Powell for not cutting interest rates. The reason the Federal Reserve Act gives the Board of Governors such sweeping authority over its real estate to begin with is precisely to ensure its independence from the political tides. The bottom line: We don't know if the president will attempt to use the legal strategy his aides are charting out to fire Powell, and if he does, we don't know if he will succeed. But if that were to happen, it would create a new world in which the president can use an obscure planning commission to coerce the world's most important central bank.

A top European official says Trump's threatened tariff rate would kill trade with the U.S. — devastating for partners that exchange more than $975 billion worth of goods. Why it matters: It's a fresh warning of the global economic consequences if the White House makes good on its threat to slap 30% tariffs on European goods in less than three weeks. What they're saying: "It will be almost impossible to continue trading as we are used to in a transatlantic relationship," EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told reporters this morning, according to the FT. "Thirty per cent or anything above 30 per cent — any additional counter-reaction from the United States — it has more or less the same effect. So practically, it prohibits trade," Šefčovič, who has led trade talks on behalf of Europe, added. Catch up quick: Šefčovič said that he would speak with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in the bloc's latest bid to reach a deal. Trump posted a letter early Saturday threatening to impose 30% tariffs on European imports by Aug. 1. He also published a notice threatening the same levy on Mexican goods. The intrigue: It doesn't appear that either nation plans immediate retaliation. "I have always said in these cases, it's important to keep a cool head," Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Saturday. Europe once again delayed retaliatory measures that might infuriate Trump. "We have always been very clear that we prefer a negotiated solution. This remains the case, and we will use the time that we have now till the 1st of August," EU commissioner Ursula von der Leyen said at a news conference on Sunday. The bottom line: For all of Trump's criticism of the U.S.-EU trading relationship — at one point, he said Europe was "nastier than China" — the tariff threat largely reflected the cordial language seen in other letters. "Donald Trump's letter to the EU is not a love letter but also not a hate letter. It's a letter to increase pressure in the ongoing negotiations," economists at ING wrote in a note.

For months now, we’ve been pounding the table on Copper. Now, the trade is on fire. Copper futures had their best day ever on Tuesday after news of new tariffs from the Trump campaign. This move also resulted in the first overbought reading on the 14-day RSI since March, marking the beginning of a new bullish momentum regime. We've also been betting on the miners playing catch-up, and sure enough, that's working, too. But as strong as that move was, Copper isn’t alone. Gold rang the dinner bell over a year ago with new all-time highs in March 2024. Since then, we've watched precious metals like Silver, Platinum, and Palladium all catch a bid. Now, base and industrial metals are starting to join the party. This is the next phase of a broader commodity supercycle, where the “junkier” stuff outperforms. Products like rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and nickel should all start trending higher soon. Green Shoots in the ASC Green Revolution Index

​

​

Our Green Revolution Index holds an equal-weight basket of rare earth metals (via $REMX), lithium stocks ($LIT), and futures contracts for Copper, Cobalt, and Nickel. This index surged over 200% from its 2020 low into the 2022 peak, but has been in a brutal bear market ever since. The good news? That downtrend has now been broken. We’re seeing signs of stabilization and base-building, with the bulls defending support over and over again. The key level we’re watching is the 61.8% retracement of the prior bull market, around 379. If and when we get a breakout above that level, this sets the stage for a full-fledged reversal toward the next Fibonacci retracement at 490. That also means we'd see a brand-new uptrend for the entire Green Revolution theme.

As this market continues to broaden out, we’re starting to see signs of rotation into areas that have been overlooked and underowned for a long time. This is especially true for the rate-sensitive groups such as Builders, Banks, and Biotech. Strazza calls them the Three B’s. And while the playbook is starting to work, we’re not quite there yet. We’ve seen some rotation into these names — especially Builders, which have caught a bid, and Banks, which are beginning to play catch-up. Biotech still needs work. However, that might be about to change. Take a look at the Equal Weight Biotech ETF relative to the Equal Weight S&P 500.

​

This ratio is sitting right on top of major long-term support — a logical level for a long-term trend reversal. We’re not calling a bottom just yet. These are monster downtrends, and bottoms are a process, not an event. But if Biotech is going to turn, this is exactly where it should start. It’s early. It’s messy. But it’s worth watching. Biotech might be the next group to catch a bid. We're sending a deep dive on Biotech to ASC Premium members this week — including trade ideas, key levels, and the top setups we're watching across the space.

The U.S. is facing a paradox in its copper supply chain. Despite producing over 1.7 million tonnes of copper annually from mining and scrap, it remains heavily reliant on refined copper imports. This visualization highlights the gap between domestic copper production and the country’s limited processing capacity.

It turns out the issue isn’t a shortage of copper, it’s the lack of infrastructure to turn raw material into usable metal.

The U.S. sends nearly half its copper abroad as concentrate and scrap, only to import refined copper for industrial use. The data reveals a potential for reshoring copper processing and reducing dependency on imports.

The data for this comes from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. It shows how copper flows through the U.S. economy, from domestic production to international trade and final consumption.

The U.S. Has the Copper, But Exports It Raw​

In 2024, the U.S. produced 1,714 kilotonnes (kt) of copper, including 620 kt from scrap and 1,09 4kt of mined production. However, the country exported 325 kt of concentrate and 518 kt of scrap.

Category	Kilotonnes (2024)
U.S. Refined Copper Demand	1,608kt
U.S. Mined Production	1,094kt
U.S. Scrap Production	620kt
Total U.S. Production	1,714kt
Concentrate Net Exports	-325kt
Scrap Net Exports	-518kt
U.S. Refined Copper Net Imports	720kt
Refined Copper Stock Drawdown	17kt

Processing Bottlenecks Create Import Dependence​

With just three major smelters in operation, the U.S. lacks the infrastructure to process its own copper output. It imported 720 kt of refined copper in 2024 to meet industrial needs. This structural weakness leaves the U.S. exposed to global supply shocks and price volatility.


To bring copper processing back to the U.S., President Donald Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on imported copper.

“The idea is to bring copper home, bring copper production home,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC.



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So,



Full:https://www.ft.com/content/51c2016a-28f3-4600-9e08-a491410d34a9

Excerpt:
Chinese mining acquisitions overseas have hit their highest level in more than a decade as companies race to secure the raw materials that underpin the global economy in the face of mounting geopolitical tension. There were 10 deals worth more than $100mn last year, the highest since 2013 according to an analysis of S&P and Mergermarket data.

Separate research by the Griffith Asia Institute found that last year was the most active for Chinese overseas mining investment and construction since at least 2013. Analysts and bankers noted that Chinese companies had become adept at snapping up mining assets from western rivals in recent years, often being willing to take a longer term view on - valuations and invest in riskier jurisdictions.

“There has been a [growing] sophistication of Chinese buyers’ outbound M&A strategies,” said Scherb. “The Chinese government used to select one buyer per asset sale process and back that group. What’s evolved over the past three to four years is the government allowing Chinese groups to compete with one another.

That implies they don’t fear losing to the west anymore,” he said. John Meyer, an analyst at corporate advisory firm SP Angel, said that China had been making deals “to actively keep the west out of certain critical materials which they dominate.



The global Bond Market = $140 Trillion:




The prices of those raw materials are likely to rise in USD and fiat currency terms in coming years. Greater demand = higher prices.

But continue to fall in gold as the rest of the bond market figures out and then begins to act on what Central Banks have been warning via their actions for the past 11 years.

Now that nations are openly declaring physical raw materials are more valuable than paper claims on those raw materials the $140T bond market will be forced to squeeze into the $22T gold market at an accelerated pace, continuing to send gold up against all other asset classes.

This dynamic will likely continue to put secular upward pressure on rates over time, which given western debt/GDP levels, will force their Central Banks to implement de facto Yield Curve Control (YCC), which will only accelerate this vortex out of bonds into gold over time.

Why not BTC?

Because BTC remains in limited supply and tightly held by ETFs and now Treasury companies.

BTC has risen and will continue to rise until it implodes on its own dynamics, which is 'hodl'. BTC adherents have convinced themselves that BTC is money or even better than money, with zero evidence to demonstrate this claim and a significant amount of evidence refuting this claim.





Full:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company


Echoes from the past.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Fastenal $FAST continues to show why it’s one of the most reliable names in the industrial sector. The company just delivered another double beat for Q2 2025, and the market rewarded it with a 4% rally, marking its 7th positive earnings reaction out of the last 8 quarters. That kind of consistency is rare, especially in a sector that’s been dealing with sluggish demand and tariff uncertainty. What sets them apart is their ability to execute in any environment. While much of the industrial space has struggled to find stable footing, they have steadily improved their operations, sharpened their pricing strategies, and expanded into higher-value products and services. The result is a business that continues to grow its margins, generate strong cash flow, and return more capital to shareholders. Even with ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, management remains confident in sustaining double-digit growth for the remainder of 2025. With fundamentals aligning with the technicals, Fastenal is reinforcing its position as one of the strongest compounders in the market.

Here are the latest FAST earnings stats

​

*Click the image to enlarge it Fastenal had a +1.23 reaction score after reporting a double beat. The company reported revenues of $2.08B, versus the expected $2.07B, and earnings per share of $0.29, versus the expected $0.28. Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with this report

FAST has been rewarded for 7 of its last 8 earnings reports

​

Fastenal rallied 4.2% after this earnings report, and here's why:

They posted 8.6% sales growth and 12.7% EPS growth, driven by strong contract customer momentum, margin expansion, and improved pricing power. Operating cash flow came in at $279M, comfortably above historical averages, supporting higher dividends and continued capital investments. Contract sales now account for over 73% of total revenue, with fastener and safety supply sales leading the way. Management reaffirmed confidence in double-digit sales growth for the rest of 2025 and maintained guidance despite tariff and cost headwinds.

This company has been outperforming its industrial distribution peers, and this quarter's financial results show why. They're crushing it! The consistent positive market reactions reaffirm the solid fundamental story. Price is trading at fresh all-time highs, clearing a key Fibonacci extension level for the first time. If FAST is above 45, the path of least resistance is likely to remain higher for the foreseeable future.

• My charts say it's a bull market.
• Speculators are underweight stocks.
• This divergence means we have a huge opportunity – right now.

It's important to take time to stop and look around.

We don't want to devise a strategy and force it on the market no matter what.

It's actually the opposite.

The first thing we want to do is identify what type of market environment we're in.

And then we decide which tools and systems best fit what's actually happening.

Call Your Offensive Plays ​

Tony Dwyer, who recently retired after a long and distinguished career, taught me this philosophy.

Tony was the Chief Market Strategist and head of the U.S. Macro Group at Canaccord Genuity for many years.

He was Chief Equity Market Strategist for FTN Financial's equity arm before that.

Tony is one of my all-time favorite strategists, and I already miss his legendary market takes.

He's a big sentiment guy, and he definitely influenced my work in this field.

The way Tony described healthy bull market environments went something like this: "When the offense is on the field, call your offensive plays."

That's stuck with me.

It's exactly how we've been conducting ourselves, in fact.

We're buying stocks and other risk assets (calling our offensive plays) while breadth is expanding and indexes are hitting new highs (the offense is on the field).

Here's Technology vs Consumer Staples:



When this ratio is going up, money is flowing into offense and out of defense, simple as that.

In this case it's even more telling because Tech is taking out its dot-com bubble high from March 2000 to go on and make new all-time highs.

Not only is the offense on the field.

You have your best lineup out there – with your entire team healthy.

Now is the time to score.

Where's the Defense?​

Well, if the offense is on the field, and we should be calling our offensive plays, what's the defense doing?

Here are the Consumer Staples vs the S&P 500:



As it turns out, defense is hitting its lowest levels in history compared to its peers.

We're seeing new all-time lows for the ratio of defensive stocks and the rest of the market.

This is a classic characteristic of healthy market environments.

When Consumer Staples outperform, stocks generally are probably under more bearish pressure than usual.

We're seeing the exact opposite.

And speculators – including hedge funds and other asset managers – are underweight stocks.

Everybody's wrong.

They should be overweight in this environment.

And that's the opportunity.

Meanwhile, consumers have historically low expectationsright now, another sign of big impending returns.

The time is now.

• Let's give the crowd some credit.
• Speculators are way offside.
• There's a lot of room for this bull to run.

We call this daily note Everybody's Wrong because it certainly feels that way sometimes.

The truth is the crowd is usually right through the duration of most trends.

So when asset prices are trending but the crowd is wrong, it actually does stand out.

And that's exactly what's happening right now with asset managers and hedge funds.

The Speculators​

Opportunities come when the S&P 500 is moving one way and speculators' positioning is moving in the opposite direction.

Here's the latest data from the weekly Commitment of Traders Reports published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC):



Speculators, which are mostly asset managers and hedge funds, haven't been participating in this historic rally we've seen since the early spring.

They're not buying in.

And, to me, that means there's plenty of upside left in this trend.

It would be one thing if we were seeing monster ETF flows and the speculators were all piling in.

That would actually be perfectly normal, in fact.

What stands out is just how mispositioned these speculators are.

And so their year-end chase for returns is on!

Never a Top With This Much Short Interest​

This divergence between S&P 500 pricing and speculators' positioning gets even more pronounced when we move down the market cap scale.

In fact, asset managers and hedge funds are currently net short the Russell 2000 Futures, which represents a basket of small-cap stocks.

Our pal Macro Charts made a great observation over the weekend: "There has never been a major Top with this level of Short Positioning."

The setup for an epic squeeze in equities – particularly small-caps – is absolutely there.

We say Everybody's Wrong on a daily basis.

But rarely is everybody this wrong.

I'm here for it!




Oil News:


European natural gas prices have posted a five-day hot streak as Northeast Asian heatwaves drained South Korean and Japanese inventories, prompting buyers to divert cargoes there, only for Europe to confront its own sultry weather.

- Front-month TTF gas futures, the benchmark for the European market, moved up to €35 per MWh ($13/mmBtu) as US President Trump’s threats to slap a 100% tariff on any buyers of Russian energy (including Central European countries such as Hungary, Slovakia or Serbia) added a layer of bullishness.

- European temperatures have been above seasonal average by 2-3° C throughout July, and it is only by the end of this month that they will converge with historic norms, limiting gas inventory builds.

- EU natural gas inventories stood at 63% full as of July 15, a whopping 17 percentage points below last year’s levels, suggesting that European LNG buying would speed up into August-September after June imports were 9.1 million tonnes, a 2% drop compared to May.

Market Movers

- US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) indicated that the Mars crude stream zinc contamination was caused by the start-up of an offshore well, prompting the US Department of Energy to release 1 million barrels of SPRs to Louisiana refiners.

- Taiwan’s state-controlled energy company CPC is reportedly seeking to purchase shale gas producing assets in the US, potentially even buying parts of Aethon Energy Management’s $8 billion Haynesville portfolio in case Mitsubishi’s bid falls through.

- US upstream firm Hess Energy (NYSE:HES) has relinquished its 100% held offshore Block 59 in Suriname as it failed to find new partners following the 2024 exit of ExxonMobil and Equinor.

- Abu Dhabi’s gas company ADNOC Gas (ADX:ADNOCGAS) signed a three-year $400 million LNG term deal with Germany’s SEFE for the delivery of 0.7 million tonnes of LNG over the next three years.

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia has failed to wake prices from their slumber, even as OPEC doubled down on its forecast of an exceptionally tight summer, with ICE Brent staying put slightly below the $70 per barrel mark. China’s much-sought return to relatively normal levels of refining didn’t provide any tangible boost either, most probably suggesting that the summer holiday season is taking its toll on commodity trading.

Trump Threatens Russia with 100% Tariffs. US President Donald Trump said he would impose 100% secondary tariffs on any country that buys Russian exports if Moscow does not reach a peace deal with Ukraine in the next 50 days, targeting India, China and Turkey, the three largest buyers of Russian oil.

Saudi Arabia Fires on All Cylinders. The IEA reported that Saudi Arabia’s June production soared to 9.8 million b/d, almost 0.5 million b/d higher than the Middle Eastern kingdom’s 9.367 million b/d quota for the month, indicating that Aramco has joined the ranks of OPEC+ overproducers.

China’s Refineries Finally Step Up Their Game. China’s crude oil throughput rose to 15.15 million b/d in June, an 8.5% year-over-year increase and the highest monthly reading since September 2023, as state-owned refiners maximized runs to a nationwide 80% amidst improved margins.

White House Stands with Oil, Not Whales. The Trump administration will delay by two years a final rule designating protection areas for the endangered Rice’s whale, of which only 100 specimens remain in the oil-rich waters of the Gulf of Mexico, de-risking offshore drilling until at least 2027.

Plaquemines Readies for Start of Phase 2. US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) has started producing liquefied natural gas from Plaquemines Phase 2, pulling a record 2.9 BCf per day of feedgas, with an aim to reach full commissioning of six new liquefaction blocks by mid-2027.

Weak Home Sales Depress Iron Ore Prices. China’s new home prices posted the steepest decline in eight months last month, falling 3.2% year-over-year, dragging the iron ore futures benchmark in Dalian lower to ¥765 per metric tonne ($106/mt), with steel demand further weakened by heavy rainfall.

Drone Attacks Hamper Kurdish Oil Production. Following drone attacks that are believed to have come from areas under the control of Iran-backed militias, the Sarsang oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan was forced to halt production, only two days after the region’s largest asset in Khurmala was attacked.

Rio Tinto Sticks To Iron Guns. Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) named the head of its iron ore segment, Simon Trott, as the company’s new chief executive, taking over from Jakob Stausholm, who was reportedly reluctant to commit to transformative mergers, including the one with Glencore.

India Eases Coal Power Emission Rules. India reversed a 2015 mandate to install $30 billion worth of flue-gas desulphurization (FGD) systems on coal power plants to reduce exhaust gases, exempting roughly 80% of nationwide coal capacity on the grounds that they’re outside a 6-mile radius of city limits.

Google Locks In Hydro Megadeal. US tech giant Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) signed the world’s largest corporate renewable energy deal for hydroelectricity, inking a 20-year power purchase agreement with Brookfield Asset Management for power from the latter’s two hydro plants in Pennsylvania.

India Talks to Chile to Secure Critical Minerals. The government of India is negotiating with Chile and Peru to source critical minerals under ongoing free trade deal talks, seeking to fix annual volumes of copper concentrate to be delivered as its copper dependency stands at a whopping 90%.

South Africa Softens Drilling Stance. South African authorities allowed UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) to drill up to 5 deepwater wells in the Orange Basin off the country’s west coast, marking a notable change after Pretoria’s intransigence prompted TotalEnergies to relinquish its assets.

Nigeria Keeps on Dreaming Big. Africa’s leading oil producer, Nigeria, is seeking to increase its OPEC+ production quota from the current 1.5 million b/d to 2 million b/d, even though oil theft and sabotage attacks have kept its crude production below its target since February 2025.


Bitcoin’s latest charge is very much understandable. Regime change is in its favor. It owes much to the steady advance through Congress of the proposed Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (known as the GENIUS Act because Washington loves its acronyms) as lawmakers strive to make the US the world’s “crypto capital.”

The surge above $120,000 Monday brings the digital asset’s year-to-date return to over 27%, capped by an 11% haul in the last week alone. This kind of outturn naturally strengthens the relatively fresh union between crypto enthusiasts and President Donald Trump.

The Genius proposal is part of a raft of crypto-centric bills being debated during so-called “Crypto Week.” It aims to create a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. More crucially, the new regime will be responsible for setting guidelines for the issuance and use of digital assets. The goal is to complete building a comprehensive process for regulating digital assets that started with crypto-skeptic Gary Gensler’s exit from the Securities and Exchange Commission. To this extent, the optimism underpinning the ongoing rally makes sense. It continues to ride the wave started by last year’s launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, jump-starting crypto’s growing legitimacy. Since Liberation Day, more than $5 billion has poured into these funds:


But Bitcoin is noted for wild swings, and there’s a question over how long this rally, driven by idiosyncratic factors, can continue. Measures of leverage are rising, but Frnt Financial’s Stephane Ouellette argues that they remain below historical levels that would suggest the market is overheated. For instance, the down payments required to be long Bitcoin remain below the highs of January.

Using Google searches for “Bitcoin” as a proxy of retail or broader public preoccupation also suggests that sentiment is not abnormal. Interest has been greater at several different points since the pandemic:


Monday’s peak was its eighth this year. Comparatively, this is by no means the currency’s most prolific year-to-date performance. An analysis shows that during the first year of Trump 1.0, Bitcoin’s all-time highs were more frequent compared to his current term — even though Trump 2.0 is much more enthusiastically crypto-friendly, and the the asset class was predicted to soar:


It’s also important to use a logarithmic scale, which tends to be a great way to reveal investment bubbles. Charting Bitcoin’s performance since 2010 on a linear scale makes the latest rally look insane; on a log scale, this advance is nothing unusual. This terminal chart shows the difference:


So Wall Street’s current excitement doesn’t look extreme compared to past years. Bitcoin’s start to 2025 is its second-worst since 2021, and is in any case no predictor of returns from here until year-end. However, after advances like this over the last decade, it has rarely closes the year lower. The only exception was 2019 — and even then, Bitcoin managed a 92.4% gain:


The crypto bros cheering the new regime should perhaps bear in mind that past bursts of strong performance came at times of heightened regulatory scrutiny. What they regarded as bureaucratic high-handedness may have played a role in reassuring investors that it was safe to enter. It’s always alarming to hear light regulation as a reason to invest in something. As the go-ahead for Bitcoin ETFs came from the Gensler SEC, it’s not as if the ancien régime stood in the way of important changes.

Their broad embrace of the Crypto Week effort suggests they’re sure that previous regulatory regimes have held back growth. Does that mean upcoming friendlier regulations and increasing institutionalization bode well?

Softer regulation would positively influence the asset. Yet as Bitcoin sheds its libertarian roots and clamors for government help, the risks in a volatile environment only multiply. Crypto Week will need to be judged in months and years ahead — but for now, crypto bros can celebrate their wins.

What lower housing inflation giveth in terms of diminished price pressures, higher tariffs taketh away. That's the takeaway from the June CPI report. The big picture: Overall inflation looked well-contained in June — but the details inside the new CPI data show a 180-degree reversal from recent years in where inflation is coming from. Housing costs now look well-behaved, while imported goods are becoming more expensive, due in part to the trade war. The new data offers the surest sign yet that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers in specific categories of goods, particularly furniture and apparel, even as overall inflation is moderate. By the numbers: CPI rose 0.3% in June, while the core measure excluding energy and food prices was up 0.2% — increases that are in line with Wall Street expectations. Both gauges rose by 0.1% in May. In the year ending in June, CPI increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.4% rise in May. Core CPI was up 2.9% — rising a tick from the prior month. The increase is more dramatic by another measure: Core CPI is up an annualized 2.4% over the past three months, versus 1.7% in the March through May window. Zoom in: Those headline figures mask underlying evidence of trade war effects hitting consumer prices, with increases in categories for items likely to be facing tariffs. Goods prices — a category including everything from apparel and footwear, to household furniture and cars — contributed the most to core inflation since 2022, the height of the inflation shock, according to calculations by Tani Fukui, an economist at MetLife Investment Management. Apparel prices rose by 0.4% last month, the first increase in the index since March. Window and floor coverings rose by 4.2% month over month, the largest increase on record. "I would see this as good evidence that tariffs are coming through with increases in prices on items that you would expect," Fukui says. Yes, but: Shelter costs rose just 0.2% in June, extending a monthslong streak of benign increases. The outsize surges in rents of the not-too-distant past are no more. At the recent peak, the 12 months ended March 2023, shelter prices were up 8.2%. That has been receding gradually and reached 3.8% in June, the lowest since 2021. What they're saying: Tariff effects on inflation "are like the broken bone," Fukui says. Meanwhile, "the Fed has been worried about shelter, which is sort of the arthritis or the chronic condition." "We simply need shelter to moderate more in the coming months, otherwise the math suggests it's going to be very difficult for CPI to not drift up into the 3% range," Bancreek Capital Advisors' Eric Pachman wrote in a note.

While the Trump administration hammers the Fed over its interest rate policy and real estate, the intrigue continues only barely beneath the surface in who the president will name as chair Jerome Powell's successor. Driving the news: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, appearing on Bloomberg TV this morning, said that "there's a formal process that's already starting" to identify the Fed chair nominee. "There are a lot of good candidates inside and outside the Federal Reserve," Bessent said. Between the lines: This implies that current Fed governor Christopher Waller stands a chance alongside outsiders like Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Bessent himself. The intrigue: Bessent argued that Powell should entirely retire from the Board of Governors when his term as chair ends this coming May, and not remain on the board for two additional years until his term as a governor expires. Powell has not publicly ruled out that possibility. If Powell were to stick around even after his time as chair ends, he would occupy one of the seven governor slots, blocking President Trump from further stacking the board with loyalists. The modern precedent is for the Fed chair to step aside when their term is up, but Marriner Eccles remained a governor for three years after his time as chair ended in 1948. What they're saying: "Traditionally, the Fed chair also steps down as a governor," Bessent told Bloomberg. "There's been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination. And I can tell you, I think it'd be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also."

Uranium stocks have been working on some of the largest and cleanest bases in the entire market for almost two decades now. I’m talking about structural patterns of the longest timeframe. The kind of formation that when it finally resolves, who knows how high it goes. These monster bases result in some of the strongest and longest reaction rallies. And when it comes to the old-school nuclear names, they are breaking out of them… or about to, as we speak. Here are two of the longest-tenured uranium stocks— industry leaders Cameco $CCJ and Uranium Energy Corp $UEC:

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My favorite way to play these multi-decade bases is via long-dated calls, or LEAPS. Certain patterns just lend themselves to specific strategies or vehicles, and this is a great example. LEAPS plus monster bases is simply a match made in market heaven. They each make the other one so much better! Since I’m already jumping my entry, I want to make sure to capture the full move. Large patterns like this take months, sometimes years, to resolve. These patterns can be slow and sloppy to start, so you want to give them plenty of time. Call options more than a year out accomplish that. However, once they go, the rallies are explosive and can last years, delivering outsized returns along the way. Out-of-the-money call options can amplify these gains by adding leverage… with limited capital. So, the bet I’m making is simple: I think UEC is going to break out and follow CCJ higher. Cameco is the leader and has already shown it the way. It broke out of an almost-identical base last month and is up 25% since. I’m structuring this trade to achieve asymmetric upside– in the event I’m right… while capping my risk to the small premium paid– in the event I’m wrong. I’m long the January 2027 $10 calls. I paid a little over a dollar for them. Now I have leveraged exposure to the mega trend in nuclear for the next 18 months, and it only cost $100 (per contract). That’s the kind of risk/reward I’m here for. What do you think? Are you LEAPing into nuclear with me? Or do you prefer shorter-term setups, like the ones we take advantage of every day with the Breakout Multiplier system. We are sending a member’s alert first thing tomorrow with a two-position trade on a red-hot drone stock.

• The company formerly known as MicroStrategy ($MSTR) achieved its first weekly all-time high of the year on Friday. It hasn't broken out on a daily closing basis yet, but today was its second-highest daily close on record.
  
• $MSTR peaked with a massive bearish engulfing candle in November after a parabolic rise above its dot-com bubble highs. It traded as high as $543 that day, but closed much lower, creating a potential air pocket between $425 and $540.
  
• While $MSTR remains -16% from its intraday peak, it's less than -5% from its closing peak. The stock is completing an eight-month base, while tightly coiled relative to Bitcoin. With price above the 61.8% retracement ($425), there’s little standing in the way of a full recovery.
  

The Takeaway: The highly contested bitcoin stock, $MSTR, is flirting with record highs and completing an eight-month base. With little resistance above $425, the stock has set the stage for a potential leg higher.






jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• The S&P 500 fell just -0.4% today, but breadth was extremely narrow. Technology was the only sector that closed higher, led by a +4.0% gain from Nvidia ($NVDA).
  
• Only 49 stocks closed higher, while the other 453 closed lower. Among the small group of advancers, roughly half were Tech stocks (24 of the 49).
  
• According to Duality, in the past 30 years, participation has never been this narrow on a day when the S&P fell just -0.4%. To quote the legendary analyst Bob Farrell, "Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names."
  

The Takeaway: While the S&P 500 slipped a modest -0.4% today, breadth was extremely narrow, with just 49 advancers vs. 453 decliners. The trend remains firmly higher, but breadth deterioration often precedes short-term weakness.





jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

From JC and the team;

The dollar is undergoing a counter trend rally. And when it comes to international equities, some are coming under pressure… but others look like they are just getting started. If you believe a falling dollar is a tailwind for global equities, and the dollar is in a primary downtrend— then any fits of dollar strength should bring buying opportunities. That’s how I’m thinking right now. However, I still want to be selective and lean into short-term relative strength and momentum. In other words, I want to buy the ones that are making new highs even despite the rising dollar. Better yet, I want to buy the ones completing fresh trend reversals in the face of these FX headwinds. That brings us to China. Even amid non-stop trade war headlines, the Emerging Market behemoth is checking all our technical boxes. And how good is this textbook trend reversal in Chinese Tech $KWEB:

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This base hasn’t even gone yet. I think you have to be all in on China when it does. And we’re so close. We’re above VWAPs and the initial breakout level, but the ultimate confirmation comes at the pivot highs around 39. As it relates to the primary trend, we’ve already had a historic initiation thrust. In the time since, the leaders have become some of the top stocks in the global equities landscape- that’s confirmation. I’m talking about BYDDF, XIACY, TME, NTES, etc. Here’s NTES. It’s as actionable as anything in China right now, just breaking out to all-time highs.

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I like it above 134. I think it’s finally time for the broader Chinese market to join the party. I continue to believe that anchor positions in the Mag 7 of China is the right way to build exposure to this region of the world. I also think it’s important to pick our spots selectively. I want to buy the fresh primary trend reversals in the best Chinese companies. Here’s one I like right now.

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BABA above 120 gets you the ideal entry on the Amazon of China. What more could you want? But I also want to play the rally phases with leveraged vehicles. And I want some action in China’s hottest stocks, too. Breakout Multiplier is perfect for this. We bought some China calls last week and sold a quick triple on them today. That was Kingsoft $KC. The stock is up about 40% since we got in. Our options are up a lot more. It’s a cycle-leader, so we expect more stocks to follow suit. And we’re so ready for it. We are putting more long ideas out this week- and we’re making the bet they are going to follow KCs path higher.

The US dollar sits at the center of global sentiment and market action. When investors feel confident, they rotate into riskier assets, such as stocks and EM currencies. But when fear creeps in, money flows back into the dollar, the ultimate safe haven— and out of risk assets. That’s generally how things work. Sometimes more pronounced. Sometimes more subtle. But the relationship holds. Right now, this chart of the WisdomTree Emerging Market Currency ETF $CEW catches our attention.

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Price is stalling at a key level of overhead supply—a zone where sellers have stepped in before. And that’s not something we can ignore. Every time we’ve been here, a broad group of currencies start to weaken relative to the dollar. That matters. These emerging market currencies are risk assets. They help drive the performance of international equity markets. We’ve seen this story before. The last two times CEW hit this ceiling, ex-US equities struggled. That’s the historical context behind this level—and why we're paying attention. So what’s next? Is the dollar gearing up for another leg higher, pressuring risk assets in the process? Or is this just a healthy pause before EM currencies break out, providing a fresh tailwind for international equities? We're leaning for the latter: a digestion phase before a major breakout in the riskiest corners of the world. Either way, this isn’t just a currency story—it’s a global risk sentiment story. And the next move from here could help set the tone for markets in the weeks ahead.

Crypto’s $10T story The total crypto market cap just hit new all-time highs. Bitcoin? Also breaking out. MicroStrategy. Coinbase. Ethereum ETF. Institutional inflows. We’ve seen this movie before. In 2003, GLD launched and gold took off. But the BIG money was made in the small-cap gold and silver miners. This is the same setup.

Big Bank Earnings Day is usually a celebration, and on the surface, this quarter looked great. They all posted strong results. Most beat on both revenue and earnings, with solid fee growth, trading revenue, and wealth management strength. We’re also in a supposedly bank-friendly environment with deregulation talk in Washington and stable credit costs. But the market didn’t care. Every major bank except Citigroup $C finished lower. A few of the stocks had their worst earnings reactions in years. Even JPMorgan $JPM couldn’t hold onto its gains despite a double beat... This was a classic case of good fundamentals, bad price action. For all the hype around deregulation and strong results, the market’s message is clear: banks aren’t where the institutional money wants to be right now.

Here are the latest S&P 500 earnings stats

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*Click the image to enlarge it Citigroup had a +2 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $21.67B, versus the expected $20.69B, and earnings per share of $1.96, versus the expected $1.61. State Street had a -4.65 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $3.47B, versus the expected $3.35B, and earnings per share of $2.53, versus the expected $2.35. Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with these reports

C has been rewarded for 3 consecutive earnings reports

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Citigroup rallied 3.6% after this earnings report, and here's why:

The bank delivered 8% revenue growth and a 25% jump in net income to $4.0B, with record results across key business lines like Services, Markets, and Wealth. Net interest income, a key performance indicator for banks, rose 12% year-over-year to $15.2B. Management also raised full-year revenue expectations to the high end of prior guidance and boosted the dividend to $0.60 per share while continuing buybacks.

This is the 3rd consecutive positive earnings reaction for Citigroup, pushing the stock to its highest level since 2008. The stock is decisively resolving a massive multi-year base, marking the beginning of a brand-new primary uptrend. As long as C stays above 83, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.

STT had its worst earnings reaction in 8 quarters

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State Street fell 7.3% after this earnings report, and here's why:

The company hit a record $49 trillion in AUC/A and $5.1 trillion in AUM. Adjusted EPS climbed 18% year-over-year, fee revenues grew double digits, and FX trading volumes surged. In addition to the solid quarter, management announced an 11% planned dividend increase, highlighting confidence in future cash flows.

Despite the strong report, the stock suffered a significant decline, marking its worst earnings reaction in eight quarters. Price is running into the upper bounds of a massive base. Until the bulls can reclaim and hold above this resistance, the risk of further consolidation remains high. If STT is above 114, the path of least resistance will shift from sideways to higher. Below it, the stock will likely be stuck in the same choppy range that has plagued it for years.

• Humans can only behave like humans.
• Price knows more than journalists, economists, and analysts.
• We're buying stocks all over the world.

If we're going to consistently profit from everybody being wrong so often, I think it's important to understand why.

Why is everyone always so wrong?

It all comes back to the humans.

It isn't just the "retail" investors, who are the last ones to show up at the party. It isn't the economists, or Wall Street's sell-side or even the hedge funds who get it all wrong.

It's the humans.

Humans Make Poor Choices ​

All we're doing here is betting that humans will continue to make poor choices when their stress levels are elevated.

It's as simple as that.

And when are humans' stress levels elevated this day in age? When money is involved.

Or, worse, when money AND politics are involved.

It all comes down to where the humans are getting their information, and what motivates them when they're buying and selling stocks.

If an investor is listening to an economist, we know they're thinking about backward-looking information.

And we know too, based on a lot of history, that this data has little to no bearing on the direction of the stock market.

Economists ignore the forward-looking discounting mechanism of the market in favor of old, stale numbers from the past.

It's not a coincidence that economists are so consistently wrong, particularly when they're at extremes in their consensus views.

Meanwhile, Wall Street sell-side analysts must travel in herds. And that presents a big problem for their end-user – the investor.

Let's say 25 firms cover a stock, and 24 rate it a "buy." If you're going to be the one analyst with a "sell" rating, you better be right!

If you're not, and you're the only one of the 25 who got it wrong, you're going to be out of a job.

And you won't be able to afford little Timmy's private school, or Mrs. Analyst's botox and Porsche, or your fancy vacations and country club memberships.

At the end of the day, is it worth it to go out on that limb, even if you feel strongly about the stock?

No. It's easier to go with the crowd. If the crowd is wrong too, you don't stand out as an idiot.

And if you don't think that's how the world works, think again.

This is exactly how the world works, especially on Wall Street.

Sell-side analysts consistently revise their estimates higher during bull markets, and consistently revise their estimates lower during bear markets.

In both environments they're chasing prices as they get left behind.

The individual investor wonders why "professionals" are wrong so often.

They're only human, and they behave that way. And human behavior is consistent cycle to cycle.

Many investors make their lives even more difficult by tuning in to financial TV and/or following newspapers and magazines for market insights.

These are the worst things you can do. We know for a fact that there is no group with more conflicts of interest than the media.

Understand, they are in the business of trying to convince you to keep consuming their content.

They are not in the business of making money in the market. And they are certainly not in the business of helping investors make money.

Their job is to brainwash you into believing their "panel of experts" is what they describe.

They want to convince you that if you're not watching, reading or listening, you're "falling behind."

Not only are the consumers of this content NOT being informed.

In fact, the investors who watch, read, and/or listen to mainstream media are consistently the most misinformed.

It gets even worse when you bring in the politics.

These days, the liberal media has people believing the stock market is in shambles, with almost 90% of Democrat voters believing the stock market is going to fall over the next six months.

The right wing agenda has its flaws as well; Republicans were bearish like that in 2023 and 2024.

They're all guilty of this, some more than others depending on who's in office and what they believe will keep their audience coming back.

We Play To Win​

We're only here to make money.

"You play to win the game," said former NFL player and coach Herm Edwards. "You play to win. When you start telling me it doesn't matter, then retire. 'Cause it matters."

As much as I dislike the New York Jets, this quote has stuck with me for more than 20 years.

You play to win the game.

To translate it into the stock market parlance, you trade and invest to make money.

That's what we're here to do.

Sell-side analysts are in it for themselves. Economists are more lost than ever, and I won't pretend to understand what's happening there.

People in the mainstream media are here to take your attention off that goal. Entertainment is not education.

Financial TV and print journalists make a lot of noise – so much you can barely think above it.

The more confused you are, the more you'll come back for their comfort... is their business plan.

Don't let them do it.

Price Is the Only Thing That Pays​

Where should we go to stay caught up on what's important?

Price.

Price will tell you everything you need to know about stocks, interest rates, commodities, cryptocurrencies, or any other assets.

We want to take what actually pays and then find divergences where the media, economists, and analysts are telling you the opposite.

When the stock market is rising to new all-time highs but asset managers and hedge funds are underweight is when we want to buy into the strength.

When short interest is piling up, despite the stock market ripping, we want to squeeze those short-sellers.

If the Russell 2000 has underperformed for a long time, and NOW they're all shorting small-caps, we want to buy the small-caps.

The worst decision-makers I've ever met are looking to short small-caps.

And speculators are net short in the futures market... and short interest in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is hitting new 52-week highs.

This is all happening right now.

Gloom and doom, with constant negativity from the news outlets, particularly the liberal ones this year. Sell-side analysts are cautious.

ETF flows into equities are non-existent. Short-sellers are as loud as ever.

We're taking the other side of the trade.

We're betting on higher stock prices.

And we're focusing on stocks with higher short interest.

Our strategy is simple: Whenever they say "tariffs," we buy more stocks. We've done really well with Chinese stocks.

We're buying a Southeast Asian consumer discretionary stock at the market open today.

We'll discuss details with members today during The Divergence LIVE at 11 am ET.

Stay sharp,

Crypto To $10 Trillion | All Star Charts

www.allstarcharts.com

Earnings season rolled on with another busy day of reports, and the market’s reaction was anything but uniform. Healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson $JNJ stole the spotlight, delivering a clean double beat that sent the stock up over 6% - its best earnings reaction this century. Omnicom Group $OMC followed with solid advertising momentum and a +4.6% reaction. But elsewhere, the picture was mixed. Progressive $PGR and Prologis $PLD both saw muted gains after reporting mixed results. Bank of America $BAC, Morgan Stanley $MS, and M&T Bank $MTB slipped after solid earnings reports. This adds to the major theme we saw on Tuesday for the big banks: beat / beat / drop. The standout? Defensive names like J&J are getting love, while cyclicals and financials are struggling to hold traction even on good reports. Let’s dig into the numbers and see which names are worth watching next.

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*Click the image to enlarge it Johnson & Johnson had a +4.68 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $23.74B, versus the expected $22.85B, and earnings per share of $2.77, versus the expected $2.68. M&T Bank $MTB had a -1.94 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $2.40B, versus the expected $2.39B, and earnings per share of $4.24, versus the expected $3.99. Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with these reports

JNJ had its best earnings reaction this century

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Johnson & Johnson rallied 6.2% after this earnings report, and here's why:

Total Q2 2025 sales were up 5.8% year-over-year, led by MedTech, which grew 6.1%. U.S. sales grew 7.8%, while international sales rose 3.2%. In addition to this quarter's double beat, the management team raised its full-year sales guidance by $2B and EPS guidance by $0.25

This was an amazing report from the 2nd-largest Healthcare stock in the world, and the market loved it. Shareholders were rewarded with the best earnings reaction this century, and a textbook gap-n-go. This big move marked the resolution of a multi-month consolidation, decisively marking the beginning of a brand-new uptrend. So long as JNJ stays above 158, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.

GS has been rewarded for 5 of its last 6 earnings reports

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Goldman Sachs rallied 0.9% after this earnings report, and here's why:

The company increased revenues and earnings by 15% and 22% year-over-year, respectively. Achieved record assets under supervision of $3.29T, marking the 30th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows. The board approved a 33% increase in quarterly dividend to $4 per share, reflecting confidence in earnings durability.

After the market punished a handful of the largest banks for reporting double beats earlier this week, it's encouraging to see the market reward this incredible report. Price is consolidating its recent uptrend above a key Fibonacci extension level, and looks poised to make a fresh leg higher soon. If GS is above 666, the path of least resistance is likely to remain higher for the foreseeable future. Thank you for reading.

Biotech has been one of the worst-performing industry groups this cycle. Investors have got used to it as these stocks have been dead money for much of the past decade. While speculative growth and risk-on areas of the market are powering higher, biotech is stuck in the same range it has been in for years. And, I know what you’re thinking. It’s the fundamental headwinds—an unfriendly administration under RFK Jr and elevated interest rates—but here we let price action speak. And right now, the action is suggesting it's time to buy the biotechs.

​

The S&P Biotech ETF $XBI just cleared the VWAP anchored to last November’s post-election highs—a dynamic resistance level that has capped every rally attempt since. As long as bios can stick the landing, the risk/reward in the short-to-medium term tilts to the upside. I want to jump this breakout in anticipation of a primary trend reversal.

​

You can see a textbook multi-year rounding bottom when you zoom out. We can use a 2-step confirmation process for scaling in or increasing exposure to the space. The prior-cycle high VWAP around 91 is the first level. The 38% retracement and pivot highs at 105 mark the ultimate confirmation that a new uptrend is underway. I’m going to add more and more exposure as we take these levels out. But I'm not doing it via the index. As usual, I want to express our thesis through individual biotech stocks… the ones showing relative strength and momentum. Let’s talk about some of the leaders now. Here’s our Biotech, Genomics, and Diagnostics leadership scan, sorted by distance to new highs:

​

This is a space where alpha can always be found, regardless of what’s going on with the rest of the market. But if the complex finally wakes from this long slumber, it will create an industry-wide tailwind… and picking winners will become easier. When biotech moves, the leaders don’t crawl—they explode. I want to be ready to capture that surge. I'm trading it with a nice mix of names along the cap scale… and of course, a few squeeze candidates.

Here's What You Missed Yesterday Louis Sykes — my buddy who’s been all over this — breaks down what’s happening and what’s next. You’ll see: → Bitcoin dominance starting to crack → Big players jumping in (but not where you’d expect) → Altcoins shaping up like junior miners back in the early 2000s → Trade ideas, setups, and how to handle risk right now If you’re in the crypto game, this is worth your time.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

President Trump seeks to use both monetary policy and trade policy to help the U.S. government reduce the burden of its debt. It's a major departure from what has long been considered best practice for economic policy. Why it matters: The president's arguments for interest rate cuts suggest he seeks "fiscal capture," where monetary policy is set not based on economic conditions, but on what will be most helpful for the government as it seeks to manage its interest costs. That can lead to "fiscal dominance," where debt service needs become the core focus of a central bank, rather than economic stabilization. This tends to cause higher inflation and higher long-term interest rates. Similarly, the desire to use tariff revenue as a major ongoing funding source for the U.S. government is at odds with other goals of trade policy, like re-shoring manufacturing and negotiating concessions with trade partners. The big picture: Traditionally, the job of monetary policy is economic stabilization — trying to keep inflation and the labor market on an even keel. Whether the interest rate policies meant to achieve that make things harder or easier for fiscal policymakers is not supposed to be the Fed's concern. Trump doesn't see it that way. The U.S. deserves rates "to be at 1%, saving One Trillion Dollars a year on Interest Costs," he posted this morning on Truth Social. The Fed has net losses in the last couple of years, which Trump's budget director, Russ Vought, has cited as evidence of mismanagement. Fed leadership has viewed the central bank's profits (which are passed on to the Treasury) or losses not as a goal, but as a downstream effect of the policies it sets in service of its economic goals. Of note: In moments of emergency, it can make sense for the Fed to make funding the government on favorable terms its primary goal. The Treasury and Fed worked in lockstep during World War II to fund the war effort, for example, and arguably something similar occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. But in normal times, it's a recipe for muddled policy, or worse. "The Fed controls interest rates to manage the business cycle," wrote Mike Konczal with the Economic Security Project. "[A]dding a second objective, managing the debt load, requires a second independent tool, or else the Fed will fail at both." State of play: Similarly, the traditional aims of trade policy tend to include geopolitical strategy, defending domestic industries and gaining access to foreign markets. Whatever revenue that tariffs happen to raise has been viewed as a fortunate side effect, not the reason for acting. Now, White House economists project that tariffs will raise about $2.8 trillion over the next decade, a key factor in their deficit projections that are far sunnier than those of outside forecasters. What they're saying: "This 'fiscal capture' of tariff policy shouldn't seem peculiar," wrote Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry in a note this week. "After all, there are a myriad of reports that Trump's desire to replace the Fed's Chair also comes from a need to 'fiscally capture' monetary policy, thus reducing the federal government's interest burden should debt levels rise," they added. This creates a risk of higher long-term interest rates. "As markets uncover the 'fiscal capture' narrative," they wrote, "the US yield curve may steepen further, with the 30-year yield rising relative to short-term yields." The bottom line: High tariffs could stick around longer and long-term interest rates might spike higher if fiscal dominance prevails.

Friday, July 18th, 2025

The constant drumbeat of Russian sanction announcements is keeping Brent futures around $70 per barrel, with the European Union and its concept of a floating price cap taking centre stage this week. The bullish momentum was further supported by assumed Iraqi drone strikes on Kurdish oil fields, taking out all the major producing assets in less than a week, suggesting that Baghdad’s OPEC+ compliance will improve over the upcoming weeks.

Chevron Beats Exxon in Legal Standoff for Hess. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will be allowed to integrate Hess Energy’s $53 billion assets after winning a high-profile litigation with ExxonMobil in the International Chamber of Commerce over Hess’ Guyanese assets, giving it 30% in the Stabroek block.

Drone Attacks Cripple Kurdish Production. A flurry of drone strikes ultimately achieved what Iraqi negotiations had failed to achieve in over two years – namely, slashing Kurdish oil output by 200,000 b/d – after explosive-laden drones debilitatedthe Tawke and Peshkabir fields operated by Norway’s DNO.

BlackRock Becomes Saudi Arabia’s Preferred Investor. Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is reportedly closing in on a $10 billion deal with US investment firm BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), potentially giving it a stake in the $100 billion Jafurah sour gas project, the largest Saudi untapped gas field.

India Mulls Yet Another New Refinery. Stoking fears that India’s refining overcapacity might be the next downstream scare, the South Asian country’s state-controlled ONGC is considering building a new 200-240,000 b/d refinery at Jamnagar in the western state of Gujarat, already home to the giant Reliance refinery.

Chinese Buyers Wary of Malaysia’s Iran Crackdown. Malaysian authorities are planning to crack down on ‘illegal’ ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude in the country’s territorial waters, reportedly later this month under notable US pressure, jeopardizing the 1.5-1.7 million b/d of Iranian flows to China.

Russia’s Energy Output Falls in 2025. Russia’s crude oil production dropped by 3.5% year-over-year to 211 million metric tonnes in January-May, reflecting lower output amidst OPEC+ production cuts, whilst the Energy Ministry reported gas production declining by a similar 3% to 290 billion cubic metres.

Beijing Threatens to Block Panama Ports Deal. The Chinese government is threatening to block the $23 billion sale of more than 40 ports owned by Hong Kong-registered CK Hutchison to US investment giant BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and MSC if Chinese shipping giant Cosco doesn’t get a stake in the transaction.

Belarus Survives Nuclear Scare, For Now. The second of two nuclear reactors at Belarus’ Astravets power plant was disconnected from the power grid after an alarm indicated a deviation in its cooling system, impacting 20% of the country’s power needs as radiation levels at the plant stayed unchanged.

Trump Scraps US Funding for High-Speed Rail. The Trump administration rescinded $4 billion in US government subsidies for California’s High-Speed Rail (HSR) project connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles and Anaheim, citing HSR’s bloated $128 billion price tag as ‘grossly over initial budget’.

Steel Markets Turn Very ‘Tariffy’ as Canada Chips In. Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced tariff rate quotas for countries with which Ottawa has free trade agreements, excluding the US, seeking to protect Canadian steel production whilst also slapping a flat 25% tariff on Chinese steel.

Slovakia Acquiesces to EU’s 18th Russia Sanctions Pack. Slovakia will lift its vetoagainst the European Union’s 18th sanctions package against Russia after Prime Minister Robert Fico reportedly received guarantees from Brussels over its energy security past 2028, paving the way for the EU’s new price cap.

Lithium Is More Alive than Dead. The world’s benchmark futures in lithium pricing, the lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Exchange, rose to a three-month high of ¥70,000 per metric tonne ($9,750/mt) after Chinese miner Zangge Mining reported having halted production at its Qinghai mine.

Brazil Eyes Asian Markets After US Snub. Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSEBR) is considering redirecting its oil flows away from the United States on the heels of the Trump Administration slapping 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, having supplied some 200,000 b/d of oil to Pacific Coast refiners.

US Targets Chinese Graphite with Prohibitive Tariffs. The US Commerce Department announced it will impose a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on all China-produced anode-grade graphite, a key component to produce electric vehicles, with final duties for the material to be issued by December 5.

• I took an expedition to New York City.
• Animal spirits are tame... for now.
• Everybody's wrong there too.

Animal spirits are still relatively muted.

I spent most of yesterday running around New York City meeting with traders and investors of all kinds.

These days, I live outside the city, with three kids and all. I'm a suburbs guy now.

And I love it.

Listen, I paid my dues. I spent more than a decade in New York and did what I had to do.

Now I get to pop in a couple times a month, and that's enough for me.

But, when I'm there, I like to maximize my time and meet with as many folks as I can.

There's usually some good food as well.

New York City is good like that!

No Questions About Crypto​

I was having an early dinner with some of the guys, including Michael Batnick, co-host of the Animal Spiritspodcast.

Michael is Managing Partner and Director of Research at Ritholtz Wealth Management, the fastest-growing financial advisory firm in the country.

He's been around a while. He knows when the animal spirits are out. He even named his podcast that.

He told me last night he isn't getting any phone calls yet about Crypto, from friends or clients.

That likely means we're still early.

It's not surprising to hear that, as we see speculators in the futures market currently the most net short they've ever been.

Investors are skeptical about Crypto assets hitting new all-time highs.

Good.

Everybody's Wrong​

Earlier in the day, I was told that "Everybody's Wrong" is the perfect name for our daily note.

I was happy to hear that.

He knows I think about this stuff a lot, and that I'm constantly looking for opportunities where the crowd is thinking one thing but the market is doing something else.

It was good feedback from friends I respect a lot.

They're Wrong About Biotech Too​

Another thing that stands out from all my conversations yesterday is the talk around Biotech stocks.

We're seeing the highest short interest in years for the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI):



This looks like a massive top doesn't it? Well, the short-sellers certainly feel that way.

So I think it's likely the opposite.

This group has been massively underperforming the S&P 500 since the first quarter of 2021.

In fact, while the S&P 500 is up more than 70% during that time frame, XBI is actually down close to 50%.

I think it's getting close to when Biotechs have their day.

One more thing I'll note is there's a ton of short interest in Small-Caps in general.

Speculators are still net short the Russell 2000 futures, and short interest in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is near new 52-week highs.

What's inside the Russell 2000? Among other things, a lot of Biotech stocks, like more than 200 of them.

There are a ton of Regional Banks in there too, more than 200 of those in that index as well. And they're short the heck out of Regional Banks!

Do you think they'll all be right?

I do not.

It was an interesting day in the city yesterday.

I expected a bit more euphoria, considering stocks all over the world are hitting new highs, the Nasdaq has doubled in a couple of years, and Crypto is pushing past $4 trillion.

But, no, people are still level-headed.

We're not seeing the crazy just yet.

I'll let you know when it comes.

Stay sharp,

Yesterday’s market was a tale of two extremes - headline beats were plentiful, but the reactions painted a very divided picture. On the positive side, PepsiCo $PEP was the clear standout. The consumer staples giant crushed expectations, with a clean double beat that sent shares up more than 7%. What’s even more interesting is why - they are quietly leveraging AI to optimize supply chains, pricing, and even marketing campaigns. It’s a reminder that the AI boom isn’t just lifting tech stocks - even a snack-and-beverage empire is cashing in on the trend. But healthcare weighed on sentiment. Abbott Laboratories $ABT, one of the largest medical device makers in the world, missed expectations and plunged over 8%. Elevance Health $ELV fared even worse, sinking more than 12% after its bottom-line miss, its worst earnings reaction ever. Financials were mixed. Regional banks like Citizens Financial $CFG managed slight gains on solid results, but U.S. Bancorp $USB and Fifth Third Bancorp $FITB slipped despite beating expectations. The broader takeaway? Investors are rewarding truly exceptional reports while punishing any hint of weakness, no matter how defensive the sector. Even a healthcare heavyweight like Abbott isn’t immune, while a consumer staple like Pepsi can rally as if it’s a tech stock when execution and innovation align. It’s a stock picker’s market out there.

Here are the latest S&P 500 earnings stats

​

*Click the image to enlarge it Pepsi $PEP had a +5.19 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $22.73B, versus the expected $22.27B, and earnings per share of $2.12, versus the expected $2.03. Abbott Laboratories $ABT had a -8.09 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $11.14B, versus the expected $11.06B, and earnings per share of $1.16, which met the market's expectations. Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with these reports

PEP had its best earnings reaction this century

​

PepsiCo rallied 7.5% after this earnings report, and here's why:

They are accelerating productivity initiatives focused on technology, AI, and data to optimize costs and drive efficiency. Major acquisitions of Siete and Poppi were completed for $1.2B and $1.95B. Management expects to return $8.6B to shareholders in 2025, with $7.6B in dividends and $1.0B in share repurchases.

Even Consumer Staples are benefiting from AI right now, and the market loves it. Shareholders were rewarded with the best earnings reaction this century, and a textbook gap-n-go. This big move marked the resolution of a multi-month consolidation, decisively marking the beginning of a brand-new uptrend. So long as PEP stays above 137, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.

ABT had its worst earnings reaction since 2016

​

Abbott Laboratories fell 8.5% after this earnings report, and here's why:

They're facing significant headwinds from COVID-19 testing, China Core Lab market, and U.S. HIV funding reductions. Competition in the continuous glucose monitoring devices market is heating up, and the market thinks Abbott is falling behind. Management declared a dividend of $0.59 per share, marking the 406th consecutive quarterly dividend and the 53rd annual increase.

This was drastically different than the Johnson & Johnson $JNJ earnings reaction on Wednesday. The bifurcation in Healthcare isn't anything new, but this report reiterated that we need to analyze each company based on its own merits. Price found resistance at the prior cycle's peak, and we expect the bears to continue holding that line. If ABT is below 142, the path of least resistance is likely to remain sideways for the foreseeable future. Thank you for reading.

One of my ongoing themes is that just because a stock blows up, or takes a steep dive, doesn’t mean it can’t dive further... Enter G-III Apparel Group $GIII, which owns and licenses around 30 popular fashion brands, including Donna Karan, DKNY, and for a brief time longer, PVH’s Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. G-III recently lost nearly a third of its value over the course of one week in June after disclosing an unexpectedly high tariff impact and withdrawing guidance, citing tariff concerns.

​

A convenient excuse? Or, given the tariff situation, real? The attempt to find an answer is part of the story, some of which is already well known; some of which, isn’t. It’s the “isn’t” that grabbed my attention – and it’s something my friend, former short-seller and sometimes collaborator Katherine Spurlock dug up. Best of all, for those who might have missed it, like so many of these it has been hiding in plain sight... If you’re new here, I’ve collaborated with Katherine in the past... notably on Savers Value Village $SVV and Signet $SIG. Katherine first started talking to me about G-III well before its recent rout. But the story she is telling is as fresh as the day she first mentioned it – since it’s only loosely connected to the tariff-tied reason the stock took a hit..

The Bull Case​

Before we go further, here’s the AI-generated bull case from my pals at TenzingMemo.... Brand Strength: Owns and licenses over 30 brands, including DKNY, Donna Karan, Karl Lagerfeld, and Vilebrequin. Owned brands now make up over half of sales, driving higher margins and control. Donna Karan Relaunch: The 2024 relaunch was the most successful in company history, with Donna Karan sales up nearly 50% year-over-year and strong profitability. Management sees $1B+ long-term sales potential. New Licenses & Diversification: New long-term licenses (Nautica, Halston, Champion, Converse, BCBG) and a growing team sports business help offset expiring Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger licenses. Supply Chain Flexibility: Decades of sourcing experience, with China exposure down to 33%, helps manage tariff and geopolitical risks. Financial Strength: $258M cash, minimal net debt, no borrowings on a $700M revolver, and consistent free cash flow support buybacks and growth investments. Management: Seasoned leadership with a track record of navigating industry cycles and delivering on brand pivots. Valuation: Trades at ~5x earnings and 3x EV/EBITDA—well below peers—despite strong brands and execution.

What’s more, G-III is generally perceived to be a family-run business, with CEO Morris Goldfarb owning a 10% stake. In this recent interview, he detailed the company’s background, how it originally went public in the 1980s via a SPAC – riding the coattails of the Top Gun bomber jacket... and how he then turned it into a broad-based manufacturer and marketer of fashion brands. He also discussed the rise and fall of the company’s PVH relationship, which started in 2005. In effect, under a new CEO, PVH announced in 2022 that it would let its Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger licenses with G-III expire on a staggered basis from 2025 through 2027. That’s an enormous hit, considering that two years ago PVH’s licensed products generated nearly half of PVH’s sales; last year, they were 38% on their way to zero.

The Bear Case​

That’s all well-known... and it’s where our story really begins...

There are three types of investors: momentum, valuation and noise. Momentum investors care about price movements, valuation investors care about fundamentals and noise investors care about a random assortment of stuff. Many of us are noise investors, even though we won’t realise it.

Of course, investment approaches do not all neatly fit into such discrete categories. Most are a combination of momentum and valuation, and every investor lets some noise into their world. The critical question is – how much is market noise impacting our behaviour?

The more influential noise is, the more inconsistent and unpredictable our decisions will be. When observing the choices made by a noisy investor it will be difficult to discern any recognisable pattern.

This is not a path to good investment outcomes.

Why is noise such an overwhelming issue for most investors? There are two factors at play. First is the sheer amount of ‘information’ available to us, which means that we face a constant struggle to understand what is important and what is immaterial. Second is our reaction to this torrent of stimulus. If we don’t define what is consequential, we will act like everything is. Is that GDP print important? What about that conflict in the Middle East? What about that technological change?

Noisy information leads to noisy behaviour.

The key differentiator between a noise-influenced investor and a momentum or valuation-led investor is that the latter group will have a far more clearly defined idea of what information matters and how they are likely to react to it.

That doesn’t mean that valuation and momentum approaches are inherently good, it is just that they are less noisy. An investor with a process that involves buying the best performing mutual funds of the past three years is momentum-focused but not noisy. It is still a very bad idea, just not one beholden to market noise.

Noise-driven investment behaviour is incredibly destructive, but it is almost certainly how most of us act. Why is it so hard for investors to avoid being captured by noise?

1) We are surrounded by it: It is close to impossible to switch off from the slew of financial market news and information. It is all-encompassing and overwhelming.

2) It is heavily incentivised: While noise may be bad for us it is fantastically lucrative for many in the industry – noise means clicks, trading, turnover, spreads and commissions.

3) Everything feels important in the moment: We tend to judge the importance of something by how available or prominent it is. Even if an issue has no real relevance for our objectives or over our time horizon, it will feel very much like it does.

4) Other people think it is important: It is incredibly hard to ignore subjects that everyone else is treating with the utmost significance. We will either look naïve or negligent, perhaps both.

5) Noise is exciting: Financial market noise is fascinating and, at times, exciting – engaging with it is stimulating and enjoyable. The trick is to be interested in it, without letting impact our investment decision making.

—

It is vital to acknowledge that our default state is to succumb to the allure of financial market noise. Once we have done this, is there anything we can do about it?

The starting point is to define the things that we care about. What matters most given our investment approach and objectives? Anything that is not in this list we can categorise as unhelpful noise.

(There is no objective list of what constitutes ‘noise’. One investor’s noise will be another’s essential information – it depends on what we believe and what we are trying to achieve).

We also need to take an active approach to blocking out market noise. All investors should be thinking carefully about how we can disregard things that are not likely to be influential, even when we know that at times they will feel crucial.

Being complacent about the amount of superfluous noise in financial markets is not a viable option, if we don’t find a way to guard against it, it will quickly come to define our investment approach.

–

My first book has been published. The Intelligent Fund Investor explores the beliefs and behaviours that lead investors astray, and shows how we can make better decisions. You can get a copy here (UK) or here (US).





Full:https://www.propublica.org/article/...rts-pentagon-defense-department-china-hackers




Full:https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/can-pit...f?st=gZonb1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink





Full:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/business/china-economy-consumer-subsidies.html





Full:https://www.theverge.com/news/707347/uber-baidu-robotaxi-deal-autonomous-ridehail





Full:https://www.ft.com/content/80c7ff6c-0692-47ec-ab70-5a323a376788?sharetype=blocked





Full:https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/07/21/is-the-us-ready-for-the-next-war




Full:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/business/drones-us-military-manufacturing-lags.html





Full:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/...e_code=1.XE8.BYkE.hnMj5q8fm2JR&smid=url-share




Full:https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/fi...1?st=yF8XPK&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink




Full:https:https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ge...8?st=uLJTEC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink




Full:https://www.theatlantic.com/magazin...opy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Quantum stocks are back in rally mode. Nuclear stocks are booming. Space & exploration names are mooning. It’s all about the speculative groups. The riskier the better these days. So, we’re watching these themes closely. And we think the next basket of hot stocks is drone technology. The leaders are already lifting off. What started as a niche and futuristic story is now becoming a reality — and it spans across industry, from agriculture and logistics to energy and infrastructure. As adoption spreads and the technology improves, applications will expand and the total addressable market will grow. This has the potential to be a mega trend of tomorrow- and that’s exactly what investors are looking for today. Whether it pans out or not is less important. Momentum is building and we’re seeing all the early evidence of a fresh trend taking shape. Across the board, stocks tied to this theme are breaking out. To get a clearer view of the aggregate performance, we built a custom Drones Index, tracking key players across the industry.

​

Price is now breaking out of a massive multi-month base — just what we want to see from an emerging growth trend. When money rotates, it tends to move through groups like this all at once. And right now, drones are up to bat. These are high-beta, small-cap, growth-oriented stocks. Equities of the longest duration. The kind that thrive when risk appetite is strong. And judging by the way these names are acting, this move is just getting started. Plenty of large aerospace and defense giants produce drones, but here we’re focusing on the pureplays. The ones with true exposure.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Today's number is... -406
The S&P 500 slipped just 0.4%, but net decliners totaled –406.
Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

• This table highlights the 30 most extreme S&P 500 trading days since 2005, where internal breadth collapsed despite a small daily price change.
• The first column shows the date.
• The middle column displays the S&P 500’s 1-day percentage change.
• The final column shows net advance-decline — the number of stocks down minus those up within the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: Yesterday wasn’t a crash, but under the hood, it was one ugly session.
The S&P 500 slipped just 0.4%, yet 406 more stocks declined than rose — the most severe internal damage we’ve seen in 20 years with that small of a price move.

This kind of divergence is rare.

It’s a hallmark of stealth distribution when mega-cap strength masks broad-based weakness.

We’ve seen this setup before: the index stays afloat, but sellers are quietly in control beneath the surface.

Looking at the 30 most extreme examples since 2005 — the same ones in this table — short-term follow-through has been mixed.
1-month forward returns average just +0.4%, with only 57% of cases positive.

But over time, conditions tend to stabilize. 3-month returns average +1.7%, and 6-month returns were positive 74% of the time, with a median gain of +5.7%.

That doesn’t mean there’s no risk.
But it suggests these internal shocks, on their own, rarely end bull markets.
More often, they mark transitions from strength to rotation.
Are you watching the index — or what’s holding it up?

• Technology closed at a fresh record high today on both an absolute and relative basis. It was already the largest sector of the S&P 500, but it's become even more dominant recently.
• Rob points out that Tech now represents over 33% of the S&P 500, marking its highest weighting since the dot-com bubble. The entire sector had a market cap of $4.4 trillion at the time, which is roughly equivalent to $NVDA's current market cap.
• Meanwhile, Health Care is shedding weight. It went from being the second-largest sector to the fifth-largest, representing just 9.2% of the index. $UNH has been a major drag this year, tumbling -42% YTD.

The Takeaway: Tech’s weight in the S&P 500 is the highest since the dot-com bubble, while Health Care's weight has fallen significantly. Concentration risk is growing. However, this is a natural consequence of a cap-weighted index, where the strongest names become increasingly influential and the weakest names become less impactful.





jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• The Russell 2000 closed marginally higher this week, with futures gaining just +0.15%. It's been chopping sideways for two weeks now, building potential energy for its next decisive move.
  
• Unlike its large-cap peers, the Russell hasn't seen a record high since 2021, currently down -8.3% on a closing basis. It has lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin in recent years, but it has slightly outperformed since the April 8th low.
  
• It's up twice as much as the S&P 500 this month, but Subu notes that positioning remains aggressively negative. Large speculators haven't been this short since the 2022 bear market bottom. Potential short-covering could fuel a move to record highs in the coming months.
  

The Takeaway: Large speculators remain aggressively short the Russell 2000 despite its recent outperformance. Potential short-covering could fuel a rally to all-time highs in the coming months.





Social Security + Medicare are today's problem.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. This is a classic leadership scan. We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. This week’s standout is Consumer Discretionary, which jumped 4 spots in our sector rankings.

​

What stands out in this week’s table is the clear risk-on tone. The most aggressive sectors are leading the way. It’s the kind of risk appetite bulls want to see accompany these new all time highs. Consumer Discretionary, in particular, is all about demand and spending. When this sector is trending well, it’s a sign that investors are feeling confident about the economy. Here’s a look at our overall industry rankings, where Textiles, Apparel, & Luxury Goods cracked into the Top 20.

​

These cover popular brands, retailers, and luxury names—companies leveraged to the consumer, for both everyday and high-end purchases. Below are the Top 10 names in the Textiles, Apparel, & Luxury Goods group, ranked by relative strength.

​

Ralph Lauren $RL is my favorite setup this week, sitting around new all time highs.

​

Price is coiling above a key Fibonacci extension and looks ready to kick off a fresh leg higher. As long as we’re above 273, I like it long with a target of 405. The Big Four – Dollar, Oil, Copper, China – are aligning. Commodities and international equities are leading. Like Hemingway's Santiago, preparation meets opportunity. We were kicking around ideas for charts this week. The usual asks... What's the current market landscape? What should we be watching? My reply was simple... Dollar. Oil. Copper. China.​ Four words. But they carry weight. The U.S. Dollar sets the tone. Crude Oil moves the inflation narrative. Copper tells you where global growth is headed. And China? China can flip the entire script. That quick conversation sparked something more. As David, our managing editor, said, "Sounds like the start of a Jason Perz-authored issue of EW." He's not wrong. Because these aren't just assets – they're signals. When they begin to align, it's not random. It's a regime shift. And it's already in motion. 'Sounds Like the Start of Something...'​ The Dollar is the hinge. It's been drifting lower, with each bounce producing a lower high. If the Dollar breaks lower again, it opens the door for international equities, emerging markets, and commodities to continue to lead. This is how global rotations begin. Oil is the accelerant. Crude has been basing under multi-year resistance for nearly two years. Most aren't paying attention, and that's the tell. If oil breaks above $85, it's not just an energy trade. It revives inflation expectations, pressures the bond market, and forces money to rotate into forgotten sectors. Copper is the truth. Dr. Copper doesn't care about narratives. It reflects real-world demand. The breakout is underway, and now copper is above major long-term levels. If it holds, that's confirmation that global growth is back. China is the lever. Price action is stabilizing, and the People's Bank of China is quietly injecting liquidity. If industrial demand picks up, China won't just participate – it will lead. And when China leads, commodities don't trickle – they surge. 'Man Is Not Made for Defeat'​ "Man is not made for defeat," Ernest Hemingway writes in "The Old Man and the Sea." So Santiago waits for his moment. He battles setbacks, drifts alone, and holds the line through exhaustion. But when the marlin finally takes the bait, all of it makes sense. That's what this setup feels like. We've been waiting... watching bases build... tracking divergences... holding our ground through chop and false starts. And it's all starting to come together. The Dollar is falling. Crude is coiling. Copper's at all time highs. China's steadily trending up. These aren't isolated developments. They're part of the same story: Capital is shifting. Global assets are waking up. The commodity cycle is recharging. This is the moment Santiago prepared for – not by guessing, but by enduring. Observing. Staying ready. Now? It's our job to recognize when the line goes tight. Let's stay ahead of it. Save the bees,

• Everybody's wrong about the Russell 2000.
• Good small-caps become mid-caps, large-caps, and mega-caps.
• Properly positioned investors are making more money than ever.

One thing I learned by playing, watching, and enjoying sports my whole life is that there's nothing wrong with your best players scoring a lot of the points.

In fact, that's exactly what they're supposed to do.

One of the common misconceptions out there – it even drives anger and rage among market participants – is just how much bigger some of the mega-cap stocks are in America compared to all the small-caps.

They claim it's unsustainable for one company to be larger than the entire Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks.

"Eventually, something's got to give. This is not bullish for the market," they claim and cry.

Well, here we are.

Stocks are at all-time highs, not just in the United States but all over the world.

And these mega-cap stocks are exponentially greater than the small ones will ever be.

Good.



You see, small-cap indexes, by definition, are always kicking out their best players.

Once a company reaches a threshold, it's categorized as a mid-cap (a market cap greater than $2 billion), then a large-cap ($10 billion), and some of them eventually make it to mega-cap status (greater than $100 billion).

Of course the smaller companies are having a hard time keeping up.

According to The Wall St. Journal, the 6.6% annualized total return on small stocks over the past 10 years trails large-company performance by 7.3 percentage points.

That's the widest gap going back to 1935.

Nvidia (NVDA) alone, at $4.2 trillion, is 65% more valuable than all the stocks in the Russell 2000 combined.

Has this been bad for NVDA? No. It's at all-time highs. Shareholders are making more money than ever.

Has this been bad for Tech stocks? No. The sector is at all-time highs.

Investors are making more money than ever.

Has this been bad for the stock market? Nope.

Stock market indexes all over the world, not just in the U.S., are at all-time highs.

Only the people trying to buy a small-cap index that's constantly kicking out the best companies are having a hard time.

But, remember, everybody's wrong. These are the smallest, least relevant companies in the world.

Why should we treat them any differently?

The market doesn't.

And that's all that matters.

​

On Monday, we gave a little credit to the crowd, which is usually right about most trends.

Still, we say Everybody's Wrong on a daily basis.

And rarely is everybody this wrong.

On Tuesday, we talked about the importance of identifying the type of market environment we're experiencing.

It's a bull market, but speculators are underweight stocks.

Here's why we have our offense on the field and we're trying to score right now.

On Wednesday, we explored why it is that everybody is so wrong so often.

The simple fact is human beings are going to behave like human beings.

Here's what we mean when we say "price is the only thing that pays."

On Thursday, we discussed Bitcoin Dominance.

Think about what a world where Ethereum is worth $1 trillion looks like for other risk assets, like Tech stocks.

Here's why we're looking to add even more Crypto exposure.

On Friday, we took an expedition from the suburbs into the city.

Running around Manhattan meeting with traders and investors of all kinds revealed to me animal spirits remain tame.

We're not seeing the crazy just yet, but I'll let you know when it comes.

On Saturday, Senior Analyst Jason Perz told us about four assets aligning and what it means for the broader market.

It's a regime shift, and it's already in motion.

Here's why our job right now is to recognize when the line goes tight.

Have a great Sunday.

We'll see you Monday morning...

Stay sharp,

Welcome to The Weekly Beat. Last week gave us a wild mix of earnings reactions - apparel stocks clawed their way back from Trump’s Liberation Day selloff, and several market behemoths had historic earnings reactions. Meanwhile, the big banks posted solid numbers but couldn’t catch a bid. Now, we’re heading into one of the most important weeks of the season. Tesla steps up to the plate on Wednesday, and this report could do more than move one stock - it could set the tone for the entire Magnificent 7 and decide the next direction for mega-cap tech. Let’s recap last week’s key moments and look ahead to what could be a market-defining week.

What happened last week

Monday: After Trump’s so-called Liberation Day, the apparel manufacturing industry was left for dead. But after months of selling, the group is finding its footing. If you want to understand where this group is headed, look at Levi Strauss & Co. $LEVI. The stock recently had its 2nd-best earnings reaction ever following a blockbuster earnings report. Revenue and EPS both beat estimates, gross margins reached a record high, and the management team raised full-year guidance despite ongoing tariff headwinds. Tuesday: Fastenal $FAST continues to show why it’s one of the most reliable names in the industrial sector. The company just delivered another double beat for Q2 2025, and the market rewarded it with a 4% rally, marking its 7th positive earnings reaction out of the last 8 quarters. The stock is trading at fresh all-time highs following this earnings event. Wednesday: This was the official start of the new earnings season with Big Bank Earnings Day. Every major bank except Citigroup $C finished lower. A few of the stocks had their worst earnings reactions in years. Even JPMorgan $JPM couldn’t hold onto its gains despite a double beat... Thursday: Earnings season rolled on with another busy day of reports, and the market’s reaction was anything but uniform. Wednesday's trend of banks being punished for reporting double beats continued. However, we found the Johnson & Johnson $JNJ report to be the most interesting. They delivered a clean double beat that sent the stock up over 6% - its best earnings reaction this century. Friday: PepsiCo $PEP had its best earnings reaction this century after a blockbuster earnings report. Abbott Laboratories $ABT suffered its worst earnings reaction since 2016 following a double beat. This was drastically different than the J&J earnings reaction on Wednesday.

What's happening next week

Next week will be packed with earnings events, so there will be plenty to cover at The Daily Beat. On Monday, we'll hear from Verizon $VZ, NXP Semiconductors $NXPI, and Domino's Pizza $DPZ. Later in the week, we'll hear from Alphabet $GOOG, Lockheed Martin $LMT, Intuitive Surgical $ISRG, GE Vernova $GEV, and many more. The most important report? Tesla $TSLA. After the closing bell on Wednesday, Wall Street expects the $1T Magnificent 7 stock to report revenues of $22.42B and earnings of $0.40 per share. The stock is trading near all-time highs, and a strong quarter could be the final push toward a $1T valuation.

Here's the TSLA setup ahead of Tuesday's earnings event

​

Tesla is reclaiming the VWAP, anchored to its all-time high - a level that has been rejected in every rally for the past two years. If this breakout holds, a strong quarter could be the catalyst that sparks a move toward the prior highs around 415. But this isn’t just about the stock price. Tesla’s story has evolved far beyond cars. Investors are watching for updates on the RoboTaxi network, energy storage expansion, and the integration of AI into its business model. The energy business and Dojo training chips are creating entirely new revenue streams that could redefine Tesla as more of a technology platform than an automaker. This earnings report will serve as a referendum on whether the long-term narrative remains valid.

​

Tesla isn’t just another company - it’s one of the Magnificent 7, the most influential stocks in the market. Together with Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Apple, these mega-caps represent nearly 25% of the entire U.S. stock market. And if you look at the MAG 7 ETF $MAGS, it has been quietly coiling beneath the December 18th peak from last year. It hasn’t broken out yet, but a strong Tesla report could be the spark that pushes MAGS above 58, igniting a fresh leg higher for the most important stocks in the market and setting the tone for the rest of earnings season. So while we’ll also hear from a large variety of companies next week… It’s really Tesla Week. Thank you for reading. - The Beat Team

.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nd-yield-rises-to-highest-since-2008-md3rxdv1



Full:https://www.reuters.com/sustainabil...ng/uk-cpi-inflation-rises-36-june-2025-07-16/




There is nothing more prospectively inflationary than a highly-indebted sovereign with domestic currency debt and a printing press whose rates are approaching levels that threaten the sovereign with a debt death spiral… and yet that very thing is happening in Japan and the UK as we speak, putting upward pressure on 10y UST yields that are now nearing problematic levels.


In the US yields are not yet at that magic 5% level that creates market turmoil. But they are not far away and not looking like they are trending lower.

They are in a trading range that is far higher than you would want to see.

But as I previously surmised, unless they are at ZIRP, lower rates from the Fed could have a negative impact on GDP as consumer spending (from interest payments) will reduce, thereby magnifying the Debt/GDP ratio negatively.









US interest payments are an issue. How to manage? Devalue the USD.




The last time interest payments were such a significant % the US via the Plaza Accord devalued the USD by a lot.


A devalued USD = higher, much higher inflation.


The currently weak (relatively speaking) USD is keeping for the moment at least, the $MOVE calm:





Now from JC's team:

When we talk about Bitcoin dominance completely crashing, it's not an exaggeration. This is the most bullish development in Crypto Markets that we may have ever seen. You watched Louis Sykes talking to JC Parets about it last week. And the collapse in Bitcoin Dominance continues. So what's the reason? What's driving this rotation out of Bitcoin and into all the other coins? Look no further than the $450 Billion market-cap in Ethereum taking over the Crypto space. This is the mother of all Altcoins ripping higher:

​

Here's something you need to understand. This is the biggest story happening right now across the intermarket landscape. This is not just a Crypto thing. This is a major market event. Look at the new all-time highs in Coinbase, Robinhood and other crypto-related stocks and assets like Galaxy Digital, all leading the stock market higher. Why do you think that's happening? It's the resurgence of the official currency of the blockchain: Ethereum. Louis Sykes had been pounding the table this Spring about this rotation back into ETH, after such a long period of underperformance. Boy did he nail it! And right now, he's offering an incredible deal for New members of ASC Crypto: - Louis' top crypto picks (including the newest altcoin targets) - Plus the Crypto related stocks & the Options trades to leverage these big trends. - 4 Video Tutorials on how to trade Crypto - Real-Time Rankings in our Proprietary Rangefinder App - 30-Day Risk-Free Guarantee This is the altcoin boom we’ve been waiting for. And it’s already underway.

Now I am not a crypto fan at all.

However:


Yanis Varoufakis: (who is the ex-Greek Finance Minister)


And with the war in Ukraine, something remarkable happened because WeChat, on the one hand and the Central Bank of China having created a digital currency, its own publicly owned app that allows you to make free payments in the renminbi in yuan, in the Chinese currency.

So there are two things you can use to make international payments for free. As a foreigner, as a Briton, you don't have to be Chinese, you have two, you have WeChat, and you have the digital currency of the Central Bank of China. There are, as we speak, 210 million accounts of the digital currency and business people can use it around the world to make free payments [completely] bypassing the dollar system.

That is a clear and present mortal danger for American hegemony. The reason why Donald Trump started the Cold War against China, this is my theory in the book, why did he start attacking Huawei and then ZTE?

And then you may say, of course, Donald Trump is a madman. He would attack anyone just for the sake of it. Well, Joe Biden comes in as the anti-Trump President of the United States, and what does he do with the Cold War that Trump had started? Does he claw back? Does he retreat from it? No, he turbocharges it.

He comes out with a declaration in the fall of 2021, essentially sending the message to China, "We are going to stop you from becoming an advanced economy by banning all sales of advanced microchips. Which is essentially, it's like in 1800 banning steam engines, the export of steam engines to Germany.

This is like saying, "This is we are declaring economic warfare against you." And why does he do that? The argument that it's because of Taiwan is rubbish. Nothing has changed about Taiwan. The one China policy had always been accepted by the west since Nixon went to Beijing. So it's not that.

It's not that China is building up its army or its Navy. I will believe that only when I see Chinese destroyers and frigates outside Los Angeles. For the time being, all I see is American warships outside Shanghai. So none of that makes sense.

What makes sense is that the Chinese payment systems, which brings together Chinese finance and Chinese cloud capital in a most effective way, just visit WeChat and you'll see what I mean, is a mortal danger for the monopoly of the dollar. The war in Ukraine did something quite interesting. This superhighway of all singing, all dancing, digital payments, Chinese payments, the WeChat and the digital currency of the Central Bank of China, that was already there.

But it's like building a superhighway. You can imagine five lanes on each side and a big spanking new beautiful highway with no cars on it. Because if you were a capitalist, even if you're a Chinese capitalist, you still wanted to use a dollar. Because if
you produce aluminum in Shenzhen, you want to sell most of it to the Americans. So you want to sell it for dollars, and then you take your dollars and you take it to Wall Street and you buy American bonds and you buy real estate in Miami and so on.

So the Chinese capitalists didn't even want to use this superhighway of payments. But the moment the United States together with a European confiscated 450 billion worth of Russian money... I'm not judging this. I'm not saying they should have done it or not have done it. I'm simply saying they did it.

So imagine you are a Saudi Arabian Sheikh or the Emir of some Emirate or some Indonesian bigwig. And you think, "Oh my God, they confiscated 450 billion smackers because they didn't like their policies. Well, they may not like me tomorrow, because I'm not the best guy in the world." They know that, right? "Well, maybe I should hedge my bets, not put all my money in the dollar system. I will put most of my money in the dollar system, but I will put some in the Chinese superhighway."

The Americans see that. The smart people in Washington see it as a serious threat because if they lose the monopoly of the dollar system, of the payment system internationally, that's it. The United States is finished.

They're deeply in the red. They have a huge budget deficit and a huge trade deficit, which they manage to turn into a strength only as long as the Chinese do not touch their monopoly, Chinese big tech. Why is the United States hegemonic? Remember that after the Second World War, the United States came out of the war as the only creditor economy. Except Switzerland, but that doesn't count, right? The only creditor economy, the only economy that was in a surplus, had a trade surplus, it sold more stuff than it consumed, than it imported.

It was the United States of America. Its factories were intact. They were not destroyed like across continental Europe or Japan. It wasn't bankrupt like this country was [the UK.] And remember why you were bankrupt, because you owed all this money to the Americans because they didn't give you a single bullet during the Second World War that they didn't charge you for and demand payment afterwards, which meant that post-war Britain was bankrupt.

It was completely in a debtor's prison owned by the United States. So they came out of it with their factories having their productivity and production capacities being massively enhanced by the Second World War. By 1945, the United States industry was capable of producing eight times more stuff than it was in 1941, just before Pearl Harbor, eight times more stuff.

And they created, remember the Bretton Woods system? Some of you who are older will remember that the British pound was fixed with a fixed exchange rate to the dollar. Essentially, we had the dollar, all of us, the Greeks, the Germans, the French, the Italians, we had our own currencies, but it was a fixed exchange rate with the dollar. Essentially we had the dollar, there were capital controls. We couldn't convert as much of our currency as we wanted to the dollar.

But if it was a fixed exchange rate, it was essentially a currency union. We were in the dollar zone between 1944 and 1971, when Richard Nixon destroyed the Bretton Woods system that the Americans had created. He destroyed it because the whole point about the Bretton Woods system was that it was a managed international dollar system predicated upon, based upon, the American trade surplus. So here we have hegemonic power in 1970-71 that is now into the red.

Now, what happened to the British Empire when it went into the red? It collapsed. What happened to the Roman Empire? It collapsed. Every time a major power goes into the red, it starts fading and the fall is very close. In the case of the United States, between 1971 and 2020 let's say, the beginning of the pandemic, its hegemony and power increased exponentially along with its state deficit. It is the only power in the world that became stronger as a result of going deeper into a deficit.

That has never happened before. How did they succeed in doing it? And this is your answer. By maintaining a strict monopoly on international payments. It was the only country in the history of the planet that had a currency which was in demand. People wanted the dollar, even if they didn't want to buy anything from the Americans. Because when you put petrol in your car, if you still have a petrol car, even if it is a company owned by the Dutch and it buys oil drilled in let's say, Nigeria from a Nigerian company. And there's no American involved at all.

Every time because it's denominated in dollars, every time you fill up your petrol tank, you are demanding dollars. You have to convert pounds or yen or Euros into dollars. So the ownership of the international payment system is what allows the United States much more so than the ubiquitous US Army, Navy, and Air Force, to maintain his hegemony. Kissinger knew that. I mentioned that in the book.

In 1970. He asked his people around him, Kissinger back then was National Security Council. He was a national security advisor to Nixon before he became foreign secretary. And he said to them, "How are we going to maintain our hegemony if we are in the red?"

And the answer he got was, we'll make other people, other capitalists, capitalists from the rest of the world, pay for our deficits. This is what has been happening. But why is it that they can do that? Because they have the monopoly of the payment system internationally.

Donald Trump and the very serious thinkers that he's got in his economics team, and I'm saying this as a very harsh and fierce critic of him and his team... So we need to understand and not to dismiss our opponent as a buffoon when he may look like a buffoon, walk like a buffoon, but he's not a buffoon when it comes to economic policy.

Look, his long-term project to bring manufacturing back to the United States involves a very delicate exercise. On the one hand, he wants to reduce the value of the dollar, the exchange rate between the dollar and the sterling, the Euro and so on. He wants to bring it down in order to make American exports more competitive and imports into the United States more expensive. And therefore shift jobs back to the Midwest, let's say.

At the same time, and that's why I'm saying it's delicate, he wants to maintain the hegemony of the dollar. So he wants some other currency to replace the exorbitant privilege that the dollar affords anyone who happens to be in the White House. And the way he's, okay, so how is this connected to Bitcoin and to the reserve, the strategic reserve?

For the dollar to fall, he needs the Chinese, the Japanese, the Brits, and the Europeans primarily to sell many of their dollars of their hoarded greenbacks. But he doesn't want them to buy the Chinese currency. He doesn't want them to buy the Euro. He doesn't want them to buy the British pound because that would defeat the purpose.

So if he can create a flow of capital from the American dollar to a mélange of cryptocurrencies, and especially if these cryptocurrencies are backstopped through some kind of stablecoin, as it's called, the currency board by the US dollar, he's achieved his objective. That I think is what is really lying at the heart of the thinking behind establishing the strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies.

On the one hand, the U.S. has already taken full advantage of benefits that capital generates. On the other hand, via the technological innovation that the U.S. leads, the U.S. pushes the Internet, big data, and cloud computing to an extreme. These tools will eventually become the forces that end financial capitalism.


So the US is in deep trouble and desperately, late in the game, trying to dig themselves out of trouble via crypto currencies, because gold plays directly into the hands of China, Russia, et al.

Now the Alt-coins have no hard ceiling a la BTC. This is both a blessing and a curse. A blessing in that you need to expand supply slowly over time a curse because an irresponsible expansion, like fiat, debases the value and trust.

Second, anything the US government is hawking, you just know that it is corrupt. They have a clear agenda and that agenda does not align with yours.

I'm not referring to trading these, they are no different to speculative stocks, I'm talking about holding them as a store of value against the continued debasement of fiat currencies. At some point, there will be a rug pull.

BTC is no good for this strategy. With a limited supply, once it is all bought, there is no more. Prices stall out. The strategy is hodl. Which means never sell. Fine until there is nothing left to buy. Then you start to see the fake transactions to goose the price higher. With Alt-coins, there is no supply limit. They can suck in capital forever.


So those that follow this thread, the point of this thread is to highlight the momentum of the market. The fundamentals, the macro, is fuc*ed, but momo will keep the markets trending higher, until they don't. JC and his team follow the momo as well as anyone. They don't pretend to pay attention to the macro or fundamentals through anything other than price action on the charts. When it changes at the top, they will be wrong for a period but then get back on board.

The fundamentals take a LOOOONG time to play out.

I remember in the Sub-Prime fiasco, we were discussing in early 2006 the issues. Nothing much happened until 2008. Two years is a long time to be right, but wrong.

So this has the hallmarks of sub-prime. This market is complete BS, but, it is what pays. The key is not to pick the absolute top, but close to the top once the trend changes.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So much attention has focused on the will-he-or-won't-he question of whether Trump will try to fire the Federal Reserve chair that it's easy to overlook a deeper reality: Major change is coming to America's central bank either way. The big picture: Trump allies' recent criticism of the Fed goes far beyond the details of the current interest rate setting or the cost of its building renovations. It's wider-ranging, suggesting that the entire 111-year-old enterprise needs a fundamental overhaul. It includes distrust of the Fed's legions of Ph.D. economists and its sprawling nature, including 12 reserve banks and a cumulative 24,000 employees. Signs of change are already in the air and will surely accelerate when a new chair takes office, whether that turns out to be next week or when Jerome Powell's term ends in 10 months. What they're saying: "What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview yesterday. "All these Ph.D.s over there, I don't know what they do." "Significant mission creep and institutional growth have taken the Fed into areas that potentially jeopardize the independence of its core monetary policy mission," Bessent said on X yesterday. "We need regime change in the conduct of policy," Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and a candidate to be its next leader, said last week. Between the lines: The outlines of the kinds of changes Trump's Fed appointee will likely pursue are becoming clear. Look for closer coordination with the Treasury Department. Warsh described a scenario where the "Fed chair and the Treasury secretary can describe to markets plainly and with deliberation" their plans for the Fed's multitrillion-dollar balance sheet. Anticipate major cutbacks in the Fed's staffing and spending; the kerfuffle over its headquarters renovation is just the tip of the spear in what many Trump allies view as wildly excessive spending. (This paper from former Fed economist Andrew Levin in March makes the case.) Expect a more pugnacious tone and more frequent TV appearances from Fed leadership, as is the style of Trump appointees across the government. Traditionally, Fed officials have been press-shy. Early signs of these shifts are evident in today's conference on bank capital, with several aspects that defy Fed customs and norms. Bessent delivered the keynote address last night. Trump-appointed vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman gave an interview to CNBC this morning — her first time on the network despite having been a Fed governor for seven years. Her appearance is during the central bank's "blackout period" before meetings at which monetary policy and macroeconomics are not to be discussed publicly. (She did not discuss those topics.) This afternoon, Bowman will interview OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — a buzzy attraction, but not the normal fare for a conference on bank capital. Reality check: For all Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed, the unemployment rate is currently 4.1%, inflation is 2.7%, the U.S. government can borrow money for a decade at 4.34%, and the stock market is at all-time highs. The big risk of regime change is that you end up with a worse regime. The bottom line: For decades, transitions of Fed leadership have been steady, cordial, no-rocking-the-boat affairs: Paul Volcker to Alan Greenspan to Ben Bernanke to Janet Yellen to Powell. Don't bet on the pattern continuing.

Proving most of industry watchers wrong, diesel continues to strengthen in July, contradicting usual commodity cycles that should place the premium on more seasonal products such as gasoline and defying expectations that Donald Trump’s tariff warfare would primarily weaken middle distillates.

- US diesel stocks have been below the 5-year range since May, falling to their lowest since 1996 for this time of the year, exactly at a time when the transatlantic trade to Europe is the most profitable in years.

- In stark contrast to previous years, the usual summer craze in gasoline markets failed to materialize, keeping bullish bets on gasoline at an 8-year seasonal low, whilst hedge funds and other money managers are the most bullish on diesel since 2018.

- European politics have added a new twist to diesel cracks after Brussels imposed an import ban on refined products made from Russian crude, impacting Turkish and Indian refiners and leaving the Old Continent’s middle distillate short even more exposed.

- Europe’s benchmark ICE gasoil crack soared to $28 per barrel this week whilst US diesel traded even higher at $34 per barrel, an almost $10 per barrel premium over next year’s August 2027 diesel crack futures contract.

Market Movers

- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) named Albert Manifold as its new chairman, replacing the outgoing Helge Lund with a chief executive that has had no previous experience in the energy sector.

- Simultaneously to its board moves, BP has agreed to sell its US onshore wind business to US-based developer LS Power as part of CEO Murray Auchincloss’ target of divesting $3-4 billion this year.

- Norway’s state energy company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) inked a 10-year natural gas supply deal with German industrial giant BASF (ETR:BAS), locking in direct deliveries in a paradigm shift for European manufacturers.

- Portuguese oil firm Galp Energia (ELI:GALP) is reportedly seeking to close a deal to divest part of its 80% stake in Namibia’s giant 10-billion-barrel Mopane discovery by the end of this year, seeking to bring in an ‘experienced operator’.


Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Oil prices have been capped by non-cessant speculation that the Trump administration might run out of yet another deadline, this time failing to post any notable success stories in bilateral trade talks ahead of the August 1 deadline. In fact, the fallout between Europe and the United States might deteriorate over the upcoming days as this week has seen top EU officials doubt the probability of a trade deal being concluded. Waiting for the next big move, ICE Brent is currently trading around $69 per barrel.

Europe Starts Drawing Up US Retaliation Plans. According to media reports, the probability of the US and the EU finding common ground on tariffs before August 1 is limited, prompting several countries incl. Germany to draft ‘anti-coercion’ measures, stoking fears of a trade war escalation.

Beijing’s Giant Hydro Project Buoys China Believers. China announced the construction of what would become the world’s largest hydropower dam in the east of the Tibetan Plateau at an estimated cost of $170 billion and capacity of 300 billion KWh/year, boosting Chinese construction stocks.

UK and EU Agree to New Oil Price Cap. The United Kingdom has joined the European Union in setting the new price cap on Russian oil at $47.60 per barrel, to be adjusted automatically depending on future price movements, all the while price caps for refined products are kept unchanged.

Antimony Supply Plunges Despite Rare Earth Deal. China’s exports of antimony were down 88% in June compared to January, similarly to germanium that collapsed by 95%, as the resumption of China-US rare earth exports seem to have excluded two key minerals used in weapons production.

Turkey Eyes Full Energy Reset with Iraq. The Turkish government announced the end of a decades-old agreement covering the transportation of oil along the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, submitting a draft proposal to Baghdad to renew and expand cooperation in the oil and gas sectors.

Cheaper LNG Weakens Coal in East Asia. One of the stalwarts of coal demand in Asia, the Philippines is set to record its first annual decline in coal-fired electricity output since 2008 as a 5.2% year-over-year increase in LNG consumption, reaching 10.4 TWh in H1 2025, affirmed the gas pivot.

UK Embattled Refinery to Close for Good. The United Kingdom’s 110,000 b/d Lindsey refinery that fell into insolvency late June following the bankruptcy of its operator Prax will be permanently shut down after no buyers were found for the plant, leaving Britain with only four operational refineries.

California Plans U-Turn on Oil Drilling. California governor Gavin Newsom is reportedlyworking with state legislators to ‘stabilize’ oil production in the Golden State after output collapsed to just 285,000 b/d in 2024, halving from a decade ago, seeking to expedite the permitting of new oil wells.

Trump Wants US Energy Involved in Syria. US energy firms Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR), Hunt Energy and Argent LNG will jointly develop a masterplan for rebuilding Syria’s embattled energy sector, seeking to counter Qatar’s $7 billion investment to boost Syrian power generation.

Mining Giant Quits Tanzania Project. Australia’s mining giant BHP (NYSE:BHP) has decided to divest its interest in Tanzania’s $1 billion Kabanga nickel project, according to operator Lifezone Metals (NYSE:LZM), with the decision probably driven by an uncertain nickel market outlook.

Zinc Is Set for a Stellar July Rally. Benchmark LME three-month zinc futures rose to their highest since March, surging past $2,840 per metric tonne, as more than half of the 118,225 tonnes held in LME-registered warehouses had been earmarked for delivery, drastically curbing availability.

Beijing Protests Against Canada’s Steel Tariffs. Chinese authorities expressed their indignation over Canada’s 25% tariff on steel imports from all countries containing steel melted in China, saying the move violates WTO rules and damages the two states’ June agreement to improve trade relations.

Blackouts Boost Gas Use in Spain. Spanish power generators doubled down on gas for electricity generation after a major blackout paralyzed the country on April 28, seeing a 6% year-over-year increase in gas consumption in H1 2025, primarily led by a 40% increase in power demand.

Last night, Steve Strazza hosted our mid-month call for ASC Premium members, running through over 150 charts for a full market update. He covered everything from US indexes, to intermarket, squeeze setups, commodities, China waking up, and crypto doing its thing. Here are some key takeaways: 1. Altcoins are Back For the first time since late 2021, Ethereum and altcoins have taken the driver’s seat. When the riskiest coins start outperforming, it usually signals a return of risk appetite—and historically, that’s led to some of the wildest bull runs we’ve ever seen.

​

Think back to 2017 and 2020—those years were marked by explosive growth driven by NFTs, memecoin mania, and a flood of retail excitement. The fact that altcoins are lighting up again suggests we could be stepping into a similar cycle. It’s hard to imagine a more bullish sign for crypto than seeing the riskiest coins leading the charge. 2. Homebuilders Setting the Stage to Catch Up While most of the market has been ripping higher, homebuilders have lagged. These stocks often serve as a strong indicator of risk appetite and overall market health. Below is an overlay chart between the homies and semis.

​

If homebuilders break higher and join the rally, it could be the missing piece that confirms a broader risk-on move. 3. Small caps holding a big level Looking down the cap scale, the Russell 2000 $IWM has been consolidating just above a key support level near 217 for weeks. That level is our line in the sand.

​

As long as IWM holds 217, the risk stays skewed to the upside. Small caps often lead shifts in risk appetite, so this suggests more room to run for the broader market.

• The US Dollar index ($DXY) saw a steady rebound in the first two weeks of July after closing at a three-year low last month. However, the bounce has started to fizzle as the broader downtrend resumes.
  
  
• David points out that the buck faded at its 50-day moving average yet again. $DXY has been rejected here several times since breaking lower from a multi-year range two months ago.
  
  
• It couldn't even retest former support at $100 during the recent bounce. A weaker dollar has become the consensus trade, but with the downtrend resuming, $DXY is eyeing fresh multi-year lows in the near term.
  

The Takeaway: Despite an orderly rally in the first two weeks of July, the US Dollar Index ($DXY) is poised for fresh multi-year lows following another rejection at its 50-day moving average.

• Mainstream media will mislead you at every possible step.
• They're wrong, and they want you to be wrong too.
• Around here we have standards, like the GICS.

Not everything is a Tech stock.

It certainly feels that way sometimes.

And we can absolutely make an argument that many publicly traded companies are directly or indirectly "Tech" stocks.

But they're not.

Amazon.com (AMZN) is not a Tech stock.

Tesla (TSLA): not a tech stock.

Alphabet (GOOGL), formerly known as Google, is not a tech stock.

Meta Platforms (META)... Netflix (NFLX)... Uber Technologies... Not Tech stocks.

There can only be so many stocks in any given sector.

That includes the Technology Sector Index.

What Is Technology?​

While there are many different variations of Tech indexes, including the New York Stock Exchange indexes, Russell indexes, and others, for purposes of this discussion we'll focus on the S&P indexes.

These are known around Wall Street as the GICS, or Global Industry Classification Standard.

There are "officially" 11 S&P sectors, including Technology. You also have Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Energy, Utilities, and more.

Tech is just one of them. It can only be one.

Granted, it's the biggest one – by far. But still only one.

Microsoft (MSFT) carries the largest weighting in the S&P Technology Index, representing 14.2%. Nvidia (NVDA) represents 13.8%, and Apple (AAPL) has a 12.6% weighting.

The percentages drop after the Big Three, with Broadcom (AVGO) at 5.1% and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) at 2.9%.

Amazon has a 0% weighting in the Tech Index. Tesla, 0%. Meta, 0%. Alphabet, 0%.

Netflix, Uber, and many other stocks you might consider "Tech" have zero representation in the official sector.

What Are These Stocks Then?​

Well, if these stocks aren't "Tech," what are they?

Alphabet and Meta – the artists formerly known as Google and Facebook – are the two largest components in the Communications Index, each representing about 16%.

Netflix is No. 3 with a 7.6% weighting in Communications.

Amazon and Tesla are in the Consumer Discretionary Sector, despite all their technological advancements. One is a retailer, the other makes cars.

Uber Technologies is a logistics company, so it's with the Industrials. UBER was also added to the Dow Jones Transportation Average last year as well. Fun fact!



You still hear people referring to any mega-cap stock that uses technology to run their business as a "Tech" stock.

There are Tech stocks, and there are companies who use technology.

To be fair, what company these days doesn't use technology?

Beware when you hear "Tech" stocks are reporting earnings, or "Tech" stocks are selling off.

Most of the companies they're referring to don't have any weighting at all in the S&P Technology Index.

They're just making it up.

That's what people do, especially in the mainstream media.

Think basic cable television programming, parading around as "business news."

Think old-school newspapers and magazines struggling to hold eyeballs and advertisers.

They're desperate types, and they're misleading you – deliberately.

They're wrong, and they want you to be wrong too.

Don't let it happen. Know your GICS.

Stay sharp,






jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-trading-restraints-loosened-under-155019751.html?guccounter=1

Of course they are. LOL.





Full:https://alphaarchitect.com/end-of-trading/

Every once in a while, a chart comes along that’s just begging to be owned. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index has been carving out the largest structural base in the entire global equity market—and it’s been doing so for over three decades. I’m talking about a consolidation that began back in the late 1980s, shortly after Japan’s infamous asset bubble popped. That’s nearly 35 years of sideways action… building energy for whatever’s next. Think about that for a second. Markets don’t usually sit still for this long. But in the rare event they do, they eventually resolve these long-term holding patterns, and the result is rarely subtle. These types of breakouts tend to unleash ferocious upside moves, as built-up pressure from decades of coiling finally releases. We want to own those breakouts every time. And right now, the Nikkei is on the cusp of completing a historic consolidation pattern. The index has cleared its 1990 highs and is pushing decisively into territory unseen since the Japanese economic miracle. Technically, this is a massive potential breakout—and the implications are just as huge for forward returns. But here’s the best part. As US investors, there is usually no way to make a clean bet on a local index from another country. Of course, you can craft the trade and hedge the currency yourself. It won’t be perfect, but an investing professional could get close. We don’t need that in the case of the Nikkei, though. The perfect vehicle already exists. It’s called DXJ—the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund.

​

Why DXJ? This ETF provides investors with exposure to Japanese equities while hedging against currency risk. It does all the boring stuff for you, so you can just own the Nikkei! And it does an excellent job at it, as illustrated by the overlay chart above. I guess my point is… if you want to buy the most epic base breakout in stock market history— you can. It’s already made up and ready for you by the good folks at WisdomTree. Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO at WisdomTree, was on the Morning Show todaytalking about it. I always enjoy our conversations, and today, the timing couldn’t be better. This breakout looks imminent. I bought some for myself in the IRA as soon as we got off the show… and I plan to buy more when the Nikkei breaches 41,000.

​

I’m going to use the 261.8% Fib extension around 108.50 as my stop for DXJ. We'll get confirmation that this breakout is in the books with a move above 117. That is likely to coincide with NKY 41K, so I’ll finish my position there on strength. I’ll start taking profits around 150, which is the next Fib extension. If you’re a fan of classic technical setups—breakouts from long-term bases, strength on both absolute and relative terms, and clean vehicles to express your thesis—this is as good as it gets. Stay tactical. Stay bullish. And don’t sleep on Japan.

When I first started studying markets, I was told commodities were going to take over. This was around 2001–2003. My uncle was early—and right.



I didn’t have the money to trade at the time. I could barely dream of buying an ounce of gold. But silver? That was possible. My first buy was at $3.41.



Even if I had more capital to open a brokerage account, I probably would’ve blown it up. But I learned something more valuable than a winning trade:



Markets are cyclical.



You don’t just buy U.S. stocks forever and print money. That’s not how this works.



You have to know what game you're playing—and when to switch boards.



Stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto—they each take turns leading.



And if you’re serious about this, you need to know when that leadership is changing.



That brings me to Stanley Druckenmiller.



In 2000, Druckenmiller sold all his tech stocks. He saw the bubble. He did the right thing. But then he watched junior managers keep raking in returns—and he couldn’t take it. He got emotional, jumped back in, and dropped $3 billion.



His worst mistake ever.



What did he do after?

He rotated out of tech and into bonds—just in time for the crash. (That trade produced a 40% return)

Why? Because he’s a macro trader. He follows cycles. He knows when it’s time to move.



And right now, that’s exactly why it’s time to start rotating into commodities.

Not because it’s obvious. Because it’s not.

Because that’s where the next cycle begins.



And the crowd never sees it coming—until it’s already gone.

$4 trillion. That’s the size of the crypto market. It’s an astounding amount of dollars, and yet, when viewed through a certain lens, it’s really not that much.​

If you’re a skeptic, you’ll dismiss this as delusional nonsense. I get it. But if you’re a believer, at least in number go up, like I am, you might think differently about how big this asset class can get.​

I was aghast when JC made the comment last week that “It’s a rounding error. That’s really what it is.”​

JC was making the point that it could go to zero, and it wouldn’t have any systemic implications. Here’s the clip, if you want to hear it from his mouth.​

​ ​ Bitcoin Could Go To Zero and It Wouldn't Matter ​

I was like, “WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT??? IT’S AS BIG AS NVIDIA!”​

​

Except it isn’t as big as Nvidia. Nvidia has a market capitalization. Its price times its number of shares outstanding.​

If “everybody” went to sell Nvidia, it would hit some sort of floor that is way higher than zero. Let’s not get bogged down in the “everybody” part, because for every buyer there is a seller etc etc, this is just a mental exercise.​

My point is, at some number on its way down, a buyer would take the company private and feast off of its gushing cash flows. And if Nvidia decided it wanted to sell 100% of the company, there would be a buyer or a consortium of buyers that would be happy to take it off its hands. That’s what we mean by a market capitalization.​

With Bitcoin, we took something from traditional finance and skeuomorphed it onto these tokens so that we could all make sense of its size. Except it isn’t a market cap at all. Because there is no single buyer or group of buyers that would take all of crypto off sellers’ hands. And if “everyone” went to sell, then there are no fundamental reasons why it couldn’t fall to $10.​

And so when I say that $4 trillion is not a lot, or $2 trillion in the case of Bitcoin, it really isn’t. Because that number isn’t real.​

But back to reality and not theoretical arguments. Right now, there is a race to buy Bitcoin. This chart from Bitwise shows that since the launch of ETPs, investors have purchased twice as many Bitcoins as Bitcoin that have been mined. Demand is outpacing supply by more than a little.​

​

And this is corporate adoption. Again, there are way more buyers than sellers.​

​

Who knows how long this dynamic lasts? At some point it will reach an equilibrium. And certainly, at some point, these dynamics will reverse and prices will come way down. I mean, duh.​

I don’t know how high Bitcoin can go, or if I will look back on this post with shame, but it’s entirely possible that the ceiling is a lot higher than people think, especially if you’re thinking about the market cap.​

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1 big thing: $550 billion in unanswered questions

Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Axios Visuals One key element of the U.S.-Japan trade pact raises more questions than answers about the future of the two nations' economic relationship. The big picture: A reported $550 billion investment commitment from Japan would reflect a massive surge in the nation's financial exposure to the United States. But no one in either the Japanese or U.S. government has articulated key details about how it would really work. In U.S. officials' description of the commitments, Trump would have the discretion to direct the investment funds and the U.S. would receive 90% of the profits. It's unclear what legal entities — on either the Japanese or U.S. side — would be involved, or what would be in it for Japanese companies if they have neither control over the investments nor a financial return. Catch up quick: A White House fact sheet said Trump will direct the funds toward revitalization of the U.S. industrial base, including energy infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding. By the numbers: It's worth emphasizing just how big $550 billion is — nearly 14% of Japan's 2024 GDP. Japan is already the single-largest source of foreign direct investment in the United States, with a cumulative capital of $754 billion deployed as of last year. It's been rising rapidly, too — nearly doubling over the last decade. Reality check: That has been driven by Japanese companies voluntarily making investments on which they expect to earn a handsome return — think of the Toyota manufacturing plant in Georgetown, Kentucky, which reflects about $10 billion in investment as of early last year. But those kinds of projects don't spin up overnight. The initial groundbreaking on the Toyota plant was in 1986. Japanese FDI in the U.S. increased by about $54 billion in 2024, a huge 7.7% surge, but the contemplated investment fund is more than 10 times that size. Similarly, Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury securities — with $1.1 trillion as of May. But those purchases are directed by the Japanese government to manage the nation's own currency and reserves, not at the behest of the U.S. president. The Bank of Japan buys U.S. bonds with the full expectation of interest earnings and principal being paid back. What they're saying: "They came to us with the idea of a Japan-U.S. partnership, where they are going to provide equity, credit guarantees and funding for major projects in the U.S.," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Bloomberg TV yesterday. A White House official tells Axios that "the shape and timeframe here are still TBD, but it's effectively an investment vehicle whose cash the Japanese will put up, and whose investments will be directed by the President into the sectors we have prioritized." The other side: "The vague promises about Japan investing $550 billion in the U.S. and Americans receiving '90% of the profits,' are the kind of fantastical claims better suited for a campaign rally than a serious trade announcement," wrote Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, in a note.

Earnings season is delivering fireworks. In yesterday's Daily Beat, we highlighted a dramatic split in Aerospace & Defense - with one stock posting its best reaction in decades while another cratered with its worst in years. During yesterday's trading session, we got 28 new market reactions. The takeaway? Déjà vu, but this time in Semiconductors. One name ripped to all-time highs with its best earnings reaction ever, while another printed a Death Candle after its worst post-earnings reaction since 2008. Meanwhile, Industrials, Utilities, and even Packaged Foods joined the party with double-digit pops, while a handful of names quietly set fresh records for consecutive negative reactions. Let’s break it down…

Here are the top S&P 500 earnings reactions

​

*Click the image to enlarge it TE Connectivity $TEL had a +5.70 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $4.53B, versus the expected $4.32B, and earnings per share of $2.27, versus the expected $2.08. Capital One $COF had a -0.34 reaction score after reporting mixed results. However, the stock rallied in absolute terms for its 12th consecutive positive earnings reaction. This is the 2nd-best streak in the entire S&P 500, behind Tapestry $TPR (15). They reported revenues of $12.49B, versus the expected $12.72B, and earnings per share of $5.48, versus the expected $4.04.

Here are the bottom S&P 500 earnings reactions

​

*Click the image to enlarge it Otis Worldwide $OTIS had a -9.2 reaction score after reporting mixed results. This was the 8th consecutive negative earnings reaction and the worst reaction ever. They reported revenues of $3.60B, versus the expected $3.70B, and earnings per share of $1.05, versus the expected $1.03. Texas Instruments $TXN had a -7.18 reaction score after reporting a double beat. They reported revenues of $4.45B, versus the expected $4.36B, and earnings per share of $1.41, versus the expected $1.36. Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with these reports

TEL had its best earnings reaction ever

​

TE Connectivity rallied 12% after this earnings report, and here's why:

Achieved record sales of $4.53B, up 14% reported and 9% organically year-over-year, led by the Industrial segment. Adjusted EPS reached $2.27, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding guidance. In addition, they reported record free cash flow and returned $1.5B to shareholders. To make a great quarter even better, management is continuing to guide toward double-digit EPS growth.

Achieved record sales of $4.53B, up 14% reported and 9% organically year-over-year, led by the Industrial segment. Adjusted EPS reached $2.27, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding guidance. In addition, they reported record free cash flow and returned $1.5B to shareholders. To make a great quarter even better, management is continuing to guide toward double-digit EPS growth.

TXN had its worst earnings reaction since 2008

​

Texas Instruments fell 13.3% after this earnings report, and here's why:

Revenue reached $4.45 billion, up 9% sequentially and 16% year-over-year. $6.7 billion was returned to shareholders over the past 12 months through dividends and stock repurchases. The biggest concern was guidance... management is extremely cautious amid the ongoing Tariff War.

The stock found resistance at last year's peak and got obliterated. It closed yesterday with what we like to call a Death Candle. This is as bad as it gets. We expect the selling pressure to continue as the longs sprint for the exits. The path of least resistance for TXN is decisively lower for the foreseeable future.

▶This is one of those “you know it when you see it” moments in the markets...

As I put it in my repost of a post this morning by CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla regarding the pre-market rise of the meme stocks...



Just looking at those names, and a few more... you know the market has hit the loony phase when the day’s biggest winners come from scraping the bottom of the barrel.

In this case, the market sees dead people – or dead stocks. Or stocks that if they’re not now completely dead, are likely to be. Picking four of the most absurd randomly: Open Technologies $OPEN, GoPro $GPRO, iRobot $IRBT and Beyond Meat $BYND. This is a three-month chart....



Over on the various forums, the pumpers are pumping. Like this one from Wall Street Bets on Reddit...



Oh, dear, where do I start...

For fun this morning, I went through a bunch of metrics for each. One is worse than the next, but to simplify things, let’s just look at revenue growth, starting with OPEN...



And GoPro...



And iRobot...



And Beyond Meat...



Some, like Open, are reversing themselves as we speak. But that’s the point: These things can reverse themselves in a heartbeat.

Enter Solar…
​

The craziest squeeze of all in recent weeks has been SolarEdge $SEDG, which was at its depths down around 90% since I first red-flagged it. Then came the latest squeeze, and as of yesterday it was up 100% over the past month.



The stock gave some of that up today – down around 9% as I write this – after rival Enphase $ENPH reported Q3 results with guidance that wasn’t quite as robust as investors had expected. The thinking was that with tax credits on solar ending at year-end, there would be a mad dash of purchases.

Trouble is, there’s a glut of inventory in the channel. Plus solar-powered batteries are now a critical component in the world of solar installations. On that score, Tesla $TSLA – almost under-the-radar, since energy is only 10% of the company – is leading that charge and stealing share with batteries and entire systems that are considerably less expensive than either Enphase or SolarEdge.

Here’s the thing...

The only reason SolarEdge isn’t down more today is because it had sharply higher short interest than Enphase. Or put another way: The only reason Enphase hadn’t squeezed higher was because it had less short interest than SolarEdge.

And the reason SolarEdge had higher short interest than Enphase is because its fundamentals are worse... if that’s possible.

---

MSTR

Full:https://www.ft.com/content/b4ce1e14-5553-4d15-b6aa-a8b09f79f7c1

Company presentations to investors are rarely memorable. They’re polished, packed with numbers and vetted by lawyers. There’s not much room for wit or irony. But MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, doesn’t follow the usual playbook. On Tuesday, Michael Saylor’s software-turned-bitcoin treasury company announced Stretch, a $500mn preferred stock offering with the ticker STRC.

Like its predecessors Strike (STRK), Strife (STRF), and Stride (STRD), Stretch is a perpetual, non-voting security with a high yield payable at the company’s discretion. But it introduces a twist: variable monthly dividends designed to keep the shares trading near par. Strategy’s investor presentation doesn’t hide the mechanics.

A literal pyramid diagram shows the capital stack. At the base sits $120bn in common equity, backed by $71bn in unencumbered Bitcoin. Above that, preferred shares stack up like a wedding cake — $1bn of Stride, $1bn of Strike, $500mn of Stretch, and $1bn of Strife at the top. The visual proportions are absurd and don’t match the actual numbers.

Whether the pyramid is a Freudian slip or a tongue-in-cheek taunt to critics who think the model relies too heavily on continued capital markets goodwill, it’s undeniably brazen. Stretch also breaks from convention. Most companies issue debt or preferred shares to fund operations, offering a fixed yield to attract buyers.

They don’t change the coupon to manage secondary-market pricing. Stretch does. The company adjusts dividends to keep the stock near par — not just to raise capital now, but to signal future stability, like a money-market fund, helping ensure the next offering is well-received. This self-reinforcing loop is core to Strategy’s model: issue securities on favourable terms, use the proceeds to buy bitcoin and fund prior payouts, then rely on market confidence to do it again.


But the company’s leverage presents a paradox. On paper, $8bn in convertible debt looks modest next to $71bn in bitcoin, suggesting a very conservative balance sheet. In cash flow terms, it’s the polar opposite. The convertible bond coupons are low or zero, but $5bn of the $8bn is out-of-the-money, meaning that it will need to be repaid unless the stock price rises. The earliest investor put is September 2027. Strategy’s software business doesn’t generate enough cash to redeem bonds that don’t convert. While bitcoin could theoretically be sold to meet obligations, this would violate the company’s HODL maximalist ethos.

The result is a peculiar form of leverage — minimal on the balance sheet, yet potentially crippling in a liquidity crunch. And there’s no guarantee the stock will rise enough to trigger conversions. Strategy’s stock has soared more than 25 times since it pivoted to bitcoin in August 2020. But since closing at $474 on November 21, 2024, it has fallen about 10 per cent, even as the company has bought another 215,000 bitcoin and bitcoin’s price has risen around 20 per cent.

The company has grown its bitcoin per share — what it calls “BTC Yield” — but the stock hasn’t followed. Saylor’s apparent endgame seems to be to replace convertibles with permanent capital — common and preferred stock — to eliminate redemption risk. Near the end of the video presentation announcing Stretch, he says: Our plan is that we’d like to reduce our overall senior convertible debt outstanding over time, and we’ll seek to equitise that as the options arrive and as available, and we’ll simplify our capital structure. This makes a lot of sense. Strategy may have extracted exceptionally favourable terms on its convertible bonds, largely thanks to the wild volatility of its stock, but they remain the soft joints in the Strategy pyramid.

Clearing them out would make the structure sturdier. If bitcoin were to tumble, the company could simply suspend preferred dividends and wait out the downturn. There would be no forced liquidations — just silence until the next cycle. Strategy could truly afford to buy and HODL, indifferent to bitcoin’s short-term price swings, with no risk of a sudden, violent unwind.

All it needs now is for the share price to rally hard one more time, creating the window to trigger conversions and eliminate the weak link. Stretch’s name is fitting. It reflects both the instrument’s flexible terms and the financial stretching required to keep the edifice standing. It is clever, adaptable, and opportunistic. But it also adds strain to an already taut capital stack. For now, the market is playing along. The real test will come if the music stops while the convertibles remain outstanding and out-of-the- money.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• Cramer could be onto something.
• We saw KSS and OPEN coming.
• Our "short squeeze" system is repeatable.

Everyone loves to dunk on Jim Cramer.

Say what you want about the guy – he's been around longer than most traders have been alive, and he's seen it all.

I don't keep up with his show these days, but I will say this: His first book, "Confessions of a Street Addict," is an absolute classic.

Highly recommend it if you want a raw, behind-the-scenes look at old-school Wall Street. It's pretty wild.

This week, Cramer made headlines again, pushing back on the shorts in Kohl's (KSS) and comparing the setup to the infamous GameStop (GME) squeeze from a few years back.

Honestly? He might be onto something.

There's a lot of talk right now about short squeezes – and for good reason.

They're happening again... in weird places... and with violent outcomes.

But let's be clear: Short squeezes have always been part of the game.

And if you understand how and why they happen, you can put yourself on the right side of them – over and over again.

It's Always Been This Way​

Short-sellers are regularly getting squeezed.

This is not a new thing. But it's definitely an underappreciated aspect of markets.

You hear me say this all the time – stock prices don't move up and down based on "fundamentals."

Prices move based on positioning.

Sometimes big funds don't have enough exposure to a particular stock or group of stocks, and the need to buy aggressively – and this behavior pushes prices higher.

Other times, these massive institutions that manage billions of dollars are long the same stocks – but they own way too much.

The massive shift in the other direction – all of them selling billions of dollars worth of the same stock or stocks at the same time – causes huge declines in their prices.

In many other even infamous cases, these hedge funds and other heavy hitters are short certain stocks, placing bets prices are going to decline.

Understanding the mechanics of these markets is a huge advantage. And it's not complicated.

Let's break it down...

If you are shorting a stock, technically what's happening behind the scenes is you're borrowing shares from your broker, keeping a margin balance there as collateral.

Those shares are sold into the open market with the goal of buying them all back at much lower prices, then returning those shares to the broker but keeping the cash spread for yourself.

Great trade!

But sometimes – a lot of times, actually – prices of those heavily shorted shares start to go up instead.

And now all those huge institutions are wrong, and they're losing a lot of money, and fast.

Not only are they paying high margin interest rates while those shares are being borrowed. They're also going to be forced to buy those shares at higher prices.

They're losing on both ends.

For the big hedge fund/asset management world, the goal is to make money. Not to lose it.

In some, more extreme cases, short interest is so high and the race to buy back shares gets so accelerated that prices can go up 100%, 300%... even more... and in a very short period of time. We're talking days.

These are what's commonly referred to among Wall Street traders as "short squeezes."

Here at TrendLabs we pay particularly close attention to the stocks with the highest short interest – those most vulnerable for a short squeeze.

We do this better than anyone.

Take a look at what I'm talking about:



Source data for this table is released every two weeks. It's a treasure-chest. But even if you can find it, it's a mess.

But we organize it all.

We sort the stocks where the short interest has increased the most, report over report.

Here's a catch: If you're using total shorts, you're only going to get a lot of the biggest names.

We'd rather adjust that dollar amount of the increase in short interest by the total market capitalization of the company.

Take a look at the names on the top of the list from the most recent report.

Jim Cramer's KSS just had a 120% rally in two days.

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) was up almost 10x in less than a month and was triple over the last few days of that move.

Shorts were increasing their positions in these stocks the most.

They got crushed. And we're thrilled about that.

It's nothing new. But it definitely falls under the radar.

I have no idea why.

We do as good of a job as anyone on Wall Street organizing and sorting this data in ways we can actually use it to profit in the market.

One last thing I'll mention here is just because there's massive short interest and the stock is super-vulnerable to squeeze doesn't mean we want to buy it blindly.

It's quite the opposite. There's a reason these stocks are being shorted so aggressively. They're not exactly revolutionizing their industries.

Usually the company is in bad shape. But by the time the squeeze comes, positioning is already at the point where all the bad news is priced in.

And then – boom! – the squeeze is on.

Wen Moon?​

"So when do we know the squeeze is on? How do we know the short sellers are being forced to cover?"

Look at momentum. Price doesn't lie.

As soon as the trend shifts, that's when you know there's a good chance it's happening.

We sort by rate of change, we use VWAPs anchored to prior highs, and we wait for prices to break out above those key thresholds before we get involved.

And remember: Margin clerks don't use limit orders.

If you can't cover your margin in time, and those margin clerks at the broker need to liquidate your position, they're not going to work the orders throughout the day and try to get you the best price...

They're going to spray the market. Any fill they get, it doesn't matter.

They'll buy them back at any price, and the short seller is paying for it all.

It's great.

Stay sharp,

• "Ball don't lie!" is the truth.
• All that lesson cost me was a shot of tequila.
• Price is the only thing that pays.

Today I want to talk about what Rasheed Wallace taught me about financial markets.

For those of you who are not familiar, Rasheed is a former professional basketball player, well known for his passionate, sometimes volatile personality.

His signature phrase – "Ball Don't Lie" – has been heard across basketball courts all over the United States for decades.

Rasheed would shout, "Ball don't lie!" after a missed free throw by an opponent following a questionable foul call against him.

From his viewpoint, almost like some kind of karmic vindication, if the player missed the free throw, it was evidence from the basketball gods that the foul call was bogus.

The ball delivered the truth.

Hence, "Ball Don't Lie."

Rasheed the Technical Analyst​

The market might be full of noise, but price action does not lie.

To put it in Rasheed's terms, "Price Don't Lie."

Rasheed didn't need a referee to confirm what he already knew – that it was a bad call.

And we don't need corporate earnings or news announcements to confirm what the market is already telling us.

Next time you see a stock up 200% or 300% in a few days, channel your inner Rasheed: "Price Don't Lie."

Macro Rasheed​

This is especially true when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

You'll often hear economists tell you a recession is coming and you should run for the hills.

But – just as often – price action tells us a different story.

We saw it this spring, when everybody lost their minds about tariffs and feared the end of the world as we know it.

Price action in stocks all over the world was suggesting the exact opposite.

The economists were wrong.

Price did not lie.

Back in early 2023, the consensus view among Wall Street strategists was the S&P 500 would actually fall for the year.

It was the first time this century Wall Street was telling its loyal followers in annual forecasts that stock prices were going down.



Well...

The S&P 500 rallied more than 20% in 2023 and then rallied more than 20% again in 2024.

In fact, the Nasdaq immediately doubled in price.

I'll say it again: Price did not lie.

You see, prices for the majority of stocks were already rising throughout the back half of 2022.

The major indexes didn't bottom until the fourth quarter. But underneath the surface, price was already telling us the truth.

Wall Street strategists lie to you, just like the economists lie to you, and all the news anchors reading their scripts on basic cable television lie to you.

"Price Don't Lie," like Rasheed teaches.

You Don't Fit!​

About 15 years ago I was down in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, with some friends for a football game.

There's a popular bar there, the Top of the Hill, or "TOPO" for the locals.

As I was walking into the bar, Tyler Hansbrough was walking out. Tyler is a legendary Tarheel who led the University of North Carolina basketball team to an NCAA title.

It was cool seeing him.

Then the next thing I know, I'm trying to maneuver my way through a packed bar to get us some beverages.

Wouldn't you know it... there's former Tarheel Rasheed Wallace, yelling at me, "You don't fit! You don't fit!"

I still think there was plenty of room for me and my friends to get through there. I personally believe he was hogging too much space.

But, to this day, some of my friends still tease me about "that one time you almost got in a fight with Rasheed Wallace!"

That's probably not something you want to do.

The truth is, I did fit. I was not being rude. He was just being Rasheed Wallace.

Rasheed claims his trash-talking comes from growing up playing basketball in the streets of Philadelphia.

He admits that he didn't invent the infamous "Ball Don't Lie" phrase, but he does get credit for bringing it to the NBA.

Turn Off the Noise​

You could simply ignore Wall Street strategists, economist-talk, and financial media headlines. That is a good step.

Better still, you could be like me and use that information to your advantage.

It's usually fake news, especially when they all agree. This goes for economists, strategists, and newspeople, be it old-school magazines or basic cable.

They are not to be trusted.

Only price does not lie.

And, for the record, I did not "almost get into a fight with Rasheed Wallace."

I actually did get to the bar after Rasheed told me I didn't fit.

And I bought him a shot of tequila. He thanked me and smiled.

It was all good.

Ignored the noise, went with my gut, made it to the bar, enjoyed a legendary exchange.

When it comes to the stock market, we want to do the same.

Ignore the noise, weigh all the evidence, make an informed decision, get a nice boost for our portfolios.

Price Don't Lie.

Thanks, Rasheed.

Stay sharp,


LOL.

Price lies all the time. It just maybe that you cannot hang on long enough to discover the lie.




Friday, July 25th, 2025

ICE Brent futures remained rangebound as market participants weighed the impact of Venezuela’s potential return to the US markets, happening against the background of global macroeconomic worries subsiding a little, on the back of a US-Japan trade deal lauded by Donald Trump. OPEC+ could project another bullish narrative when its ministerial committee meets this Monday, making it likely that next week would still see Brent hovering around $70 per barrel.

Trump’s Venezuela Policy Set to Alter Radically. According to media reports, Donald Trump’s administration Is preparing to grant new authorizations to oil companies with assets in Venezuela, allowing them to operate with limitations and swap the produced oil, in a rare policy shift.

Exxon Eyes Trinidad’s Oil after Guyana Bonanza. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is reportedly in negotiations with the Trinidad and Tobago government to sign an exploration and production deal on seven deepwater blocks north of Guyana’s Stabroek block, 20 years after it left the Caribbean country.

Russia Blocks Foreign Ships from Loading Kazakh Oil. Loadings of the light sweet CPC Blend from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were temporarily halted due to Russia imposing new regulations this week, demanding that every tanker loading CPC receive an approval from the FSB security service.

California Wants to Keep Key Refinery Alive. California’s government is desperatelytrying to find a buyer for the 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery next to San Francisco, set for an early 2026 closure after operator Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) could no longer make ends meet, offering the plant to others.

Puerto Rico Lapses $20 Billion Talks. Puerto Rico is reportedly halting negotiations with US LNG developer New Fortress Energy on a $20 billion LNG supply deal after the state’s financial watchdog vetoed it over monopoly concerns, citing NFE’s unwillingness to discuss changes to the contract.

BP’s Lube Unit Might Finally Have a Buyer. US private equity firm One Rock Capital Partners is emerging as the top bidder for BP’s lubricants business Castrol, bidding for the entire $9-10 billion asset, as previous suitors Reliance Industries and Saudi Aramco dropped out of the competition.

Argentina’s Shale Dream Goes On. Argentina’s oil and gas production hit a two-decade high in June, according to the country’s authorities, buoyed by soaring shale production from the giant Vaca Muerta basin, up 22% year-over-year with crude output already moving past 450,000 b/d.

Colombia Warns Glencore over Israel Coal Deliveries. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro threatened to change Glencore’s (LON:GLEN) concession contract in the country if the mining giant continues to export coal to Israel, in line with Bogota’s ban on fuel exports to Israel over its assault on the Gaza Strip.

Copper Heats Up on August Tariff Deadline. US copper prices traded on the COMEX exchange reached an all-time high this week, hitting $5.93 per pound on Wednesday, ahead of the planned August 1 start of 50% import tariffs on the transition metal, as imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Norway Gives Up on Its US Wind Dreams. Norway’s state oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) booked a 955 million impairment on its Empire Wind offshore wind farm in New York state after the Trump administration suspended offshore wind leases, lowering the firm’s Q2 net profit by 30% to $1.3 billion.

Tokyo Mulls Adding Alaska LNG to Trade Deal. A White House communique indicated that the United States and Japan are exploring a ‘new offtake agreement’ for the $40 billion Alaska LNG project as part of a wider trade deal that will introduce a baseline 15% tariff for Japanese exports to the US.

Steaming Saudi Summer Ratchets Up Fuel Oil Use. Saudi Arabia’s imports of Russian fuel oil rose to their highest on record last month to 212,000 b/d, as the Middle Eastern kingdom has been stocking up on fuel for electricity generation as temperatures regularly exceed 45 degrees Celsius in July-August.

Azeri Shippers Detect Contaminated Oil. UK major BP (NYSE:BP), the operator of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that ships Azeri oil to the Mediterranean, stated that it detected organic chloride contaminants in some oil tanks at Ceyhan after loadings were halted this week, tightening the European market.

The next week is going to be huge for understanding where the U.S. economy stands and where it's going. Why it matters: The release of crucial indicators — GDP! Jobs! Inflation! — will show whether the economy is still holding up under the weight of Trump's trade wars. The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting where it is likely to leave interest rates unchanged, against the president's wishes and with a couple of dissents likely. The legality of Trump's use of emergency authorities for tariffs will be challenged in court. And major trade partners including Europe, Canada and Mexico face sharply higher tariffs next Friday if they fail to reach a trade deal. What they're saying: "It is the busiest I can remember in 25 years of working," ING economist James Knightley tells Axios. "Add in the trade deadline and I can't think of a week that has seen such a concentration of A-list events," Knightley says. The big picture: The economy contracted in the first quarter because of tariffs, even as the underlying figures pointed to healthy activity. The opposite might be the case in the Q2 GDP report (out Wednesday). The economy likely resumed growing in the April-June period as imports normalized. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates the economy grew at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter, after shrinking by 0.5% in the prior quarter. The question is whether under the hood, there is more weakness than the headline suggests. What to watch: There will be new data on job vacancies, layoffs and quits (Tuesday) and private sector hiring (Wednesday) — all in the lead-up to the July government payroll report (Friday). The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, alongside spending and income figures, will be released on Thursday. Two separate gauges of consumer sentiment (out Tuesday and Friday) will show whether Americans continued to update their views of the economy. Of note: There will also likely be big developments on the tariffs front. Oral arguments are set for Thursday in the court case examining whether many of Trump's tariffs are legal. The hearing comes one day before the White House said those tariffs will shoot higher for countries without trade deals, though top officials have hinted the deadline is flexible. U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday for a third round of high-level trade talks. The talks could lead to a trade deal, or at least an extension of the truce now set to end Aug. 12. The intrigue: The Fed, under immense pressure from the White House, is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday. In recent weeks, two Trump-appointed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have argued for a rate cut this month — raising the odds of two governors dissenting for the first time in over 30 years.

Trump toured the Fed's headquarters renovation project yesterday afternoon, repeated his desire for lower interest rates, and had a tense moment with Fed chair Jerome Powell that photographers captured for posterity. Catch up quick: Trump said that the renovation project is actually $3.1 billion, not the widely cited $2.5 billion figure. Powell shook his head to indicate "no," then put on his glasses and looked quizzically at the paper Trump carried. "You just added in a third building," Powell said, visibly annoyed. Trump's larger number includes the cost of renovating the William McChesney Martin Jr. office building, a project finished five years ago. Between the lines: The exchange — and the entire hoopla-infused site visit — was a weird moment in America's long, fraught history over who should control the nation's central bank. Flashback: It came near the end of an eventful week, which also included the announcement of a major trade deal with Japan, one that set tariffs on imports at 15% and included an unconventional investment deal. Earlier in the week, the Fed hosted a major conference on bank capital where the tone suggested big banks are in line for relief on the financial buffers that regulators insist upon. Oh yeah, and all of this was happening during the Fed's "blackout" period before a policy meeting, when officials do not publicly comment on policy or the economy. Normally, it's a time for quiet contemplation of the policy choice ahead — a time in which the Fed is out of the spotlight.

A few weeks ago, a little biotech stock called $OST lit up social media. The hype was nonstop. Traders rushed in. Then — in under an hour — it collapsed more than 90%.

​

But here’s what most people missed: Herb Greenberg red-flagged $OST before the crash. That’s what he does. For years, Herb’s been exposing red flags — from Enron to FTX and dozens of other stocks not worthy of your portfolio. He’s one of the most respected investigative journalists in the game.

I’ve been pounding the table on China since that historic momentum thrust last year. While little progress has been made at the index level, the big picture keeps coming together for this battleground emerging market country. We’re witnessing a textbook trend reversal. Classic accumulation. The path of least resistance is slowly but surely turning higher for Chinese stocks. And sentiment couldn’t be worse. We’re coming from “this country is uninvestable” territory. As for risk appetite— around the world, it couldn’t be better. Breadth keeps expanding internationally. And as for China, the early leaders are big tech and speculative tech. Companies like Xiaomi… or Kingsoft. It’s the kind of risk-on behavior you want to see accompany a new uptrend. Last year, I outlined a basket of stocks and dubbed them the Magnificent Seven of China. These are mega-cap growth companies that dominate out there in the same way Google and Apple do here. The ideal blue-chip names for building an emerging market portfolio. Stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, and Build Your Dreams—the Amazon, Meta, and Tesla of China. And Wall Street is finally warming up to the idea. Recently, Barron's introduced a similar concept– the “Terrific Ten,” and Roundhill even launched an ETF comprising these stocks. Is the world ready to buy China again? I definitely am. We call our basket of top stocks the Fanghai Composite Index:

​

This is a classic primary trend reversal, but it’s been slow and sloppy to launch out of its base. Most of the components have been dormant for the past three months, but I think that’s about to change. Here’s the universe at a glance:

​

We’ve been outlining trades in these stocks since last year. Some have worked, others are yet to. But the indexes are showing all indications that this trend reversal is about to be in the books, so it’s a good time to revisit the important levels. ; First is Alibaba Group $BABA. This is the Amazon of China, with a heavy footprint in e-commerce and digital services. This is one of my favorite bases out there.

​

BABA has been in the process of completing a massive bearish-to-bullish reversal for several years. With price back at the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs, this is the right time to buy into this fresh uptrend. Above 123, and I think you have to own BABA. Our first target is 220, but I think it goes back to those old highs over longer timeframes. Our next setup is the largest company in China, Tencent Holdings $TCEHY. They are a global leader in social media, gaming, and digital payments. This is basically the Meta of China, and we’ve been long.

​

TCEHY is on the cusp of completing a massive base as it presses against a key retracement level. I’m adding to my position on a breakout above 71, targeting 100.

• Bitcoin has traded sideways over the past 10 days, digesting its recent gains and consolidating for the next move. Meanwhile, Solana ($SOL), the sixth-largest cryptocurrency, has jumped +15% over the same period.
  
• Solana has had a wild ride this week. It broke above $180 with authority on Monday before peaking at $205 on Tuesday. After retracing the entire breakout, it found support today right where it all began, at $180.
  
• $180 has been a polarizing level for Solana over the past year, acting as both support and resistance. If it continues to hold, the next logical target is the prior cycle highs at $250.
  

The Takeaway: Solana successfully retested $180 today, confirming a major breakout from earlier in the week. If $180 continues to hold, this former leader could quickly make up for lost time. For more on Solana, check out this note.








jog on
duc