Is this a bear flag?

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

beachlife said:

I havent got a view now, have to wait to see where the next swing top is.

The OP nailed the support at 11.45.

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DP (decision point) trade signal looking ok so far with a good potential R/R. Stop would now be breakeven today.
(I don't hold)

(daily chart - click to expand)

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

beachlife said:

Not familiar with Trinity. Are you in or waiting for some sort of entry signal? Where is the stop & target?

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On the first leg up, I only trade Intraday swings (different chart).
Once Primary Resistance is confirmed - best guess at this stage: 100% = $12.33 - I measure the depth of the resistance and buy for a lt-hold at strength, adding once Primary Resistance is broken.

Target = top of the gap, coinciding with Fib Phi;
Stop = $12.00, coinciding with Fib phi.

Both subject to change as chart is progressing.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

beachlife said:

Notting - I would be interested to follow your trade when it happens, or after it's finished if you prefer.

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Fingers gett'n itchy!! around this 12.20 to short again.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

notting said:

Fingers gett'n itchy!! around this 12.20 to short again.

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Any supporting analysis?

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

tech/a said:

Any supporting analysis?

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No it's not technical, other than it has been showing weakness and I believe this run up back through the support around 12 is due to a bit of Christmas hype rather than the bulk of the market rhythm with lots of pros on holiday.

I would be getting out just above 12.40 as a stop and selling more between 12.20 and 12.40 till that point. I will watch for what it does later afternoon to see if it retests the high of the day and then watch what it does to decide how aggressive I might like to be!

I should add that 10 year yields have gone through 3% on a very timid move by the fed. That should be ringing plenty of alarm bells despite the 4%annualized growth for a quarter.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

notting said:

No it's not technical, other than it has been showing weakness and I believe this run up back through the support around 12 is due to a bit of Christmas hype rather than the bulk of the market rhythm with lots of pros on holiday.

I would be getting out just above 12.40 as a stop and selling more between 12.20 and 12.40 till that point. I will watch for what it does later afternoon to see if it retests the high of the day and then watch what it does to decide how aggressive I might like to be!

I should add that 10 year yields have gone through 3% on a very timid move by the fed. That should be ringing plenty of alarm bells despite the 4%annualized growth for a quarter.

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Hmm I will have a go at giving a brief supporting analysis that tech/a enquired about. I am not sure if you and tech/a will think it's right but I shall give it a go anyway.

Overall if you zoom out to a year time frame and look at a graph the stock is in a long term down trend for the last 8 months. It's making lower lows and higher lows. This is our first hint that we may want to look at shorting this stock.

We hit a six month low in mid December and now the stock has been inching higher. There is no evidence to support any kind of consolidation or sideways market. The most probable is that the downtrend is continuing and this is going to turn into a higher low.

On the 11 December 2013 the market sold this stock in a large volume in a very clear tone. There is only one small wick. Essentially the level of volume and wide candle shows a strong dislike of the stock at this time. The next day the stock rose on about half the volume as the day before. We have a long wick and it looks like the buying pressure was pushed down by sellers. The buyers outnumbered the sellers then. We then see two days of low volume selling. The 16th of December was interesting. The stock gapped higher by a fair bit but then sold down to the previous close. This was on low volume. I don't have an explanation for this.

Not much happens for a couple of days except some brief sideways action. Then the stock suddenly breaks out on around average volume. On the second day of the breakout the buyers lose steam though since there is a lot of volume but not much movement. It looks like the sellers are keeping the buyers in check. At this point people who bought at the low point are selling into those trying to get on the breakout. The next day there is a small volume but quite a big movement upwards. This tells us many of the sellers have already exited and now the buyers are driving the price up fast (low volume buyers with sellers who don't want to sell since they feel like they are riding the breakout = low volume large movement upwards). The next day the same thing happens. Even lower volume with a larger move up. Buyers are trying to get on the wagon here to not miss out on the potential profits in this breakout.

Then what happens? Well now there are only the people who bought in the breakout left (as far as the short term traders go) with significantly dropping buying volume. These people who bought at the start and middle of their breakout seeing the loss of momentum will now want to sell. This will end up driving the price down and in turn the people who bought at the top of the breakout will now want to cut their losses. This should then result in a pullback.

If what I said above makes sense/is true then I suspect the pullback will be a minor one and the stock will head up a bit more again to make a higher low. It should then drop back down in accordance with the long term downtrend. This may change in February since an interim report will be released but until then as long as there are no other news, I think this analysis is reasonable and involves 1. no chart astrology and 2. no obscure financial news about things happening overseas that no one really understands but pretends to.

Opinions?

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

All analysis is correct until proven in correct.
You can certainly argue for the 3 possible outcomes.
Long
Short
Ranging.
My bet is ranging
before continuation on the
Very long time frame--Months/year
to the upside.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

I am also keeping an eye on the Ausi $.
It has showed a little strength over the lead up to Christmas yet is appearing to run out of puff.
If it does continue lower from here that will also put negative pressure on our market as internationals look to keep exiting rather than come back, yet.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

tech/a said:

All analysis is correct until proven in correct.
You can certainly argue for the 3 possible outcomes.
Long
Short
Ranging.
My bet is ranging
before continuation on the
Very long time frame--Months/year
to the upside.

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I really appreciate your posts tech /a and value your views.

The first line above intrigues me however - although it could well be right.

Good food for thought.... So thanks.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Muschu said:

I really appreciate your posts tech /a and value your views.

The first line above intrigues me however - although it could well be right.

Good food for thought.... So thanks.

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I don't think all analysis is correct until proven incorrect. I am sure there is bad analysis!

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

This is where the MMA is a handly tool. The long termn averages are turning and price has popped up through the long term group. My guess is some bouncing around sideways. So while there is a rejection at Fib 50% saying a short might be good, the higher swing bottoms and higher swing tops says go long, but the MMA keeps me out of both. Interesting to see what happens, we have one long trader and one short, both might profit from some bouncing around.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Valued said:

I don't think all analysis is correct until proven incorrect. I am sure there is bad analysis!

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There is certainly poor and very bad analysis.
But I put to you.

When do you know it's bad?
Think about it!

----When it's proven in correct.
I'm not limiting that comment to technical analysis either.

To perhaps make your point
There are 3 views presented here on CCL
The bad analysis---which one or two presented is it.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

I'm bullish on CCL.

Pure gut feeling.

As above.

Who knows?

gg

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Valued said:

I don't think all analysis is correct until proven incorrect. I am sure there is bad analysis!

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I was trying to think of a medical analogy....

Thinking it is just a matter of semantics and personal viewpoint.

Whatever...

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Muschu said:

I was trying to think of a medical analogy....

Thinking it is just a matter of semantics and personal viewpoint.

Whatever...

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Your correct it is.
Until it is validated one way or the other.
At that point it is either proven correct or in correct.
Just like a diagnosis.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

tech/a said:

Your correct it is.
Until it is validated one way or the other.
At that point it is either proven correct or in correct.
Just like a diagnosis.

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That's like schrodinger's cat though except that we have indicators that may point us in one direction or the other as to whether the cat is alive. Therefore, while the cat might both be living and dead, proper analysis will allow us to choose which is more likely. The theoretically optimal analysis will be the one that presents us with the highest edge. Simply saying that it's either correct or incorrect doesn't really tell us much!

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Is there a cup and handle forming or am I being overzealous in seeing patterns?

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Valued said:

That's like schrodinger's cat though except that we have indicators that may point us in one direction or the other as to whether the cat is alive. Therefore, while the cat might both be living and dead, proper analysis will allow us to choose which is more likely. The theoretically optimal analysis will be the one that presents us with the highest edge. Simply saying that it's either correct or incorrect doesn't really tell us much!

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Of course it does.

It tells us to trade our analysis and
play it out as it plays out!

In other words take decisive action with a decision
You'll not know if your right or wrong until it plays out.
Have appropriate action ready for each scenario.
Limit risk and Maximise profit.

Right now its making up its mind!
So analysis says Watch.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

tech/a said:

Of course it does.

It tells us to trade our analysis and
play it out as it plays out!

In other words take decisive action with a decision
You'll not know if your right or wrong until it plays out.
Have appropriate action ready for each scenario.
Limit risk and Maximise profit.

Right now its making up its mind!
So analysis says Watch.

Click to expand...

Looks like its starting to make up its mind a bit more firmly. $12 support was gone with a 11.99 close and the way down seems to have been found at least intra day.

Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Came up in my scan a couple of days ago but risk:reward was too low so I passed.