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Is this a bear flag?

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Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

It looks like your trade is working well so far (and my initial hunch about the bear flag was correct). CCL closed at 11.77 today. The $12 support is well gone. Now to muster up the guts to act on hunches like this
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

jdenhaan said:
Now to muster up the guts to act on hunches like this
Click to expand...

Yes the swing chart turned down today making a swing high just below entry, so a perfect time to move stops to $12.04. So all that is at risk now is costs.



To help with your confidence I suggest opening a cfd account and trading small, even just a $10 risk. You can start with as little as $200. That way you start to learn about your emotions and as you get profitable and comfortable you just increase the risk. SIM trading and paper trading is a waste of time since it doesnt test your emotions. I learnt this the hard way many years ago. Paper trade well for a couple of months, and then blow an account up in a matter of weeks. It all changes when real money is on the line, so its best to learn with a small amount of real money and gradually scale up.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

An interesting day today so now need to consider where to move the stop to. There are 5 options.

1. Just above swing top, which is the same as yesterday,
2. Guppy count back line, would also put it at $12.04,
3. ATR based. ATR is 20c. 1.5xATR is 30c. Close + ATR Stop is 11.46+0.30 = 11.76. This is within the range of the bar so too close.
4. Since the move has cleared the 50% point of the projected range the stop could be placed just above it at around $11.82, and that would also confirm a new swing up, but that is very close to the days range this time since ATR is increasing.
5. Use the moving average, but its still above the existing stop.

Decision, use the 50% level but also just above the swing low of the 6th, so move stops to $11.88 which locks in profit at 0.4x risk.



The last time there was a volume spike like this on 7th Nov it was an exhaustion, the next day started a touch lower and then went up and became the start of the counter trend (point B). Similar on 12 Sept. Tomorrow will be interesting. Hopefully target hit just after open, if not will need to watch the close of the day and maybe get out if it turns out to be an up inside day, will depend on where the open and close are.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

beachlife said:
The last time there was a volume spike like this on 7th Nov it was an exhaustion,
Click to expand...

Exhaustion is usually confirmed on the day with a finish well off the lows.
Look at what OZL did yesterday. That looked like capitulation and exhaustion. (although every bone in my body is telling me to stay away from a long).
On a capitulating day one day chart, if it retraces above 61.8 it's also indicative of a bounce.
There was no finish well off the lows for CCL, it finished on it's lows, bearish.
Finishing on it's low with huge volume spike on the day after falling through support at 12 is bearish.
I'd be putting a stop above the major support at 12 and be looking to increase the short if tries to retest 12 which should now be tough to penetrate on the upside.
I was long till it broke 12 because I like the Indonesia story. I was building on the support line so it cost me virtually nothing as I got out on the retest.
Now I will be looking to short on retracements to 12.
Watch for what does at 11 It's been pretty strong there.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

notting said:
There was no finish well off the lows for CCL, it finished on it's lows, bearish.
Finishing on it's low with huge volume spike on the day after falling through support at 12 is bearish.
Click to expand...

Not always. For every seller there is a buyer so it also means lots of buyers willing to take from the sellers because they like the price level. It can be an exhaustion of sellers.

So far its been interesting. The swing chart will now have a swing up, making a swing bottom at $11.46 and so far the 50% level hasnt been broken, so lets see where it closes. USA was down, XAO is down, but the volume spike yesterday gave a great warning based on what has happened with this stock twice before, and it looks like it might be happening again, but it's all happened on really low volume so far. Time will tell.

 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Retraced on the five day to fib .618 or 11.82 and failed = bearish confirmation no.2.
May try it again usually will go a little higher then flop.

Selling between 11.80 and 11.70 if it gets higher more aggressive selling till a stop out around 12.10 if it gets there with volume and high closes.
Otherwise bare has it till at least 11.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?


I think you have misunderstood or maybe we are talking about different time frames. I am bearish on CCL, thats why I entered short.

My point about the volume spike is that it might be a sign that a retracement will happen and take out the stops. The history of this stock is that whenever the price has been under the MA and there is a volume spike, it has been the start of a retracement, and for my short time frame, that's a risk of being stopped out. One way or the other I only expect to be in this trade for a few more days.



For today, leave stop and target where they are.

oops forgot the arrow on the 3rd from the left but you get the idea
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Haven't misunderstood what you are doing I'm just talking about the event over recent days, it's very short term implications and probabilities. It's something that I am trading and so am elaborating, I don't think it is contradicting what you are saying. I'm just sharing a trading technique that works for me when significant levels get breached or stocks plummet. Like ASL, FGE, QBE and OZL have recently and the very short term money that can be made on wild moves in days!!
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Finally something has happened.

The price went up through 50% but no further than the previous swing low, and closed just below 50%. My stop wasnt hit so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 2 days.

 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Stopped out today for small profit. Its been interesting to see how the flag projection also failed, and how the volume spike a few days ago was not a sign of bearish continuation.

Anyone interested in hearing a view about how volume is different today than it was when all the TA books were written go to 4:40 on this video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOSd2oHl4ks

Hope you enjoyed following the trade.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Revisiting support for a good short setup like a whole pack of mining services companies.
Let it run a bit more whilst the amateurs are driving the slay through Chirstrash.
Then hit the sell buttons. That's my plan
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

beachlife said:
Finally something has happened.

The price went up through 50% but no further than the previous swing low, and closed just below 50%. My stop wasnt hit so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 2 days.

View attachment 55952
Click to expand...

I see it totally different Beachlife.

5 waves down followed by an Elliott Wave triangle. Todays high hit the 61.8% retracement level. If rejection is seen here there is a good chance that the measured move out of the triangle will be hit. It needs to turn lower now for me to be interested in a short trade.
 

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Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Porper said:
I see it totally different Beachlife.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean by different, I didnt really say anything in that post except that my stop had been threatened (and today was hit, so I am out).

I havent got a view now, have to wait to see where the next swing top is.

The OP nailed the support at 11.45.

Notting - I would be interested to follow your trade when it happens, or after it's finished if you prefer.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Coke has today come up with a Trinity signal; if it can hold above the falling resistance line, we're on a winner.



... Long trade, that is.
 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

pixel said:
Coke has today come up with a Trinity signal; if it can hold above the falling resistance line, we're on a winner.
... Long trade, that is.
Click to expand...

so far, so good

 
Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

Not familiar with Trinity. Are you in or waiting for some sort of entry signal? Where is the stop & target?
 
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