Is Gold in a Bubble?

[Peak Debt]

I found this very intriguing chart on APF, comparing the gold price movement over the past few years to the famous 'typical bubble' pattern chart that we've all seen before.

One view says the gold bubble has already burst.

The other view says the gold bubble has just finished the bear trap phase and now prices will really take off!

What do you guys think is the more likely scenario?

Gold is a classic bubble - it follows the typical pattern precisely. Goldbugs. The time to panic... is now.

 

[So_Cynical]

I found this very intriguing chart on APF, comparing the gold price movement over the past few years to the famous 'typical bubble' pattern chart that we've all seen before.

One view says the gold bubble has already burst.

The other view says the gold bubble has just finished the bear trap phase and now prices will really take off!

What do you guys think is the more likely scenario?

Gold is a classic bubble - it follows the typical pattern precisely. Goldbugs. The time to panic... is now.

The bubble burst a few months back...where have you been?

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't recall any mass public gold buying or "new paradigm" hype or indeed anything else which really suggests we've seen the end of the gold bull.

I could be wrong of course, but I expect that the real action is still to come.

 

[wayneL]

I don't recall any mass public gold buying or "new paradigm" hype or indeed anything else which really suggests we've seen the end of the gold bull.

You haven't seen the gold stands in shopping centers?

 

[Smurf1976]

You haven't seen the gold stands in shopping centers?

I've seen them, but only ones that buy gold from the public. So far as I'm aware, you can't just walk up to one of those, plonk some cash on the counter and walk away with a gold bar in your hands. They're a means of getting rid of gold, not buying it. At least the ones I've seen are.

I sure haven't seen any mass public buying of gold bullion either physically or electronically. A few people yes, but I haven't been to any BBQ's where gold investment has come up as a topic and the masses still seem to see property as a better investment followed by cash or shares.

Maybe we have seen a top in gold but I'm not convinced. Real estate certainly displayed all the usual symptoms of a bull market coming to an end and much the same could be said for the ASX too. The masses wanted in, and they got in. Practically everyone with money to invest was putting it into either property or stocks, and much of that was borrowed money too. In comparison, there's been hardly a word said about gold beyond the "it's up a bit so maybe now's a good time to sell" type of stuff. So far as I can tell, relatively few people have invested in it at any time over the past decade, and most of those seem to have only put a few % of their money into it, keeping the rest "safe" in residential real estate or stocks.

 

[lusk]

I don't recall any mass public gold buying or "new paradigm" hype or indeed anything else which really suggests we've seen the end of the gold bull.

I could be wrong of course, but I expect that the real action is still to come.

April 18th 2013


http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-gold-rush-as-prices-drop-20130417-2i0m8.html

Probably around the bull trap phase

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Some players in the financial world think gold is a bubble. We need more study. I believe at different times there will be different crisis such as currency crisis, gold and oil crisis, credit and banking crisis and housing crisis in the coming two decades. In some period some assets can become bubble due to over speculation and when all money including hot money chases those assets. Both AUD and NZD became bubble currencies due to over speculations and hot money. Now Both AUD and NZD dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle. Similarly gold has entered a multi year bear cycle. I am bullish on new assets including emerging commodities and global stocks in all types of markets in the coming decade. I am also bullish on USD and few other currencies.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2013/04/15/the-gold-bubble-pops-others-will-follow/

The Gold Bubble Pops, Others Will Follow

http://au.businessinsider.com/gold-open-interest-shows-bubble-2013-6

The Chart That Best Illustrates How Gold Was A Bubble

http://www.ibtimes.com/gold-bubble-real-says-societe-generale-calling-1200oz-q4-1310191#

Gold Bubble For Real Says Societe Generale, Calling For $1,200/Oz. In Q4

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100847575

Has Gold Entered a Long Term Bear Market?

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.