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IPG - IPD Group

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following the results on the 30/8, IPG has moved UP, from around $4.60 mark to trading in the region of $5.00. With a bit of a lift in volume

and a director topped up.

goes ex- dividend on 19th, of 6.2c

@debtfree Sept comp comment
 
@debtfree Oct comp comment

not much news . A director, Andrew Moffat sold 192,446 shares, which arose from a rebalancing of his various investment portfolios; he has advised the Board that he had no current intention to further sell shares.

YTD
 
Like @finicky, I looked at this in depth recently, in comparison to SXE, as he found, it shares similar metrics. A good little business, but I think no meaningful difference in quality to SXE and I already hold a large position there at a much lower cost base. So it was a pass from me in the end. Definitely the sort of company I like to find though.
 
No signs yet that I can see. Looks like it wants to break the support level it found in June. Needs a positive daily candle pronto. Four days of negative increased volume. Someone getting a heads up or just skittishness? AGM 26 Nov.

FY24 results looked very good and outlook stated at that time:
"The outlook for our markets remains buoyant, driven by the transition to renewable energy, increasing demand from data centres and their energy requirements, the growing number of EV chargers, and a supportive legislative environment."

 
@debtfree .

.
Michael Sainsbury, IPD Group Limited CEO, said: “We are pleased to remain on track to deliver another half of revenue growth in a challenging environment. Amidst the wider macroeconomic challenges in the commercial construction sector, we have seen our order book transition from daily trade to larger and more complex orders, which typically have longer lead times and less certainty around delivery timing. This has resulted in a proportion of orders that would previously have already become invoiced Revenue now sitting in our Order Backlog. We have made additional investments into our operating cost base to generate and deliver these additional orders, which will impact margins for 1HFY25. Our operating cost base however is well placed to service future growth.
 
Down to a tempting level value wise imo, undecided about the chart. Won't be biting as cash continues to feel like a life-raft.
But from management comment it looks like revenue is just deferred to H2 due to complexity, and lower margin will be due to investment in capacity. At minumum ROE = 15%. Gearing low. i imagine it is worth 3x book value which was 1.46 end of FY24, so worth around $4.50?

Not Held

DAILY
 
Market Matters answering a subscriber question on its W/E Q&A:

"IPG provided 1H25 earnings guidance at the end of November which was circa 12% below expectations in part due to the timing of larger projects. That saw universal downgrades to FY25, FY26 & FY27 earnings estimates from analysts. Whilst it was a disappointing trading update, IPG’s order backlog remains strong as the company remains exposed to the high growth electrification and data centre sectors. We like the company, but like many in the space, expectations were too high."

My precis of the above: Solid but too expensive?

Chart is still looking dubious. Three weeks ago the high volume hammer candle is suggestive to me that a low was met but the situation has since deteriorated, albeit on low volume An alternative is that there's a double top in effect and a target for that could be 3.25. When in doubt I go for the more negative interpretaion.

Not Held

WEEKLY 3 Years
 
$4.22

1H FY25 Results Highlights
• Record half-year revenues and earnings above the top end of the guidance range
• Revenue of $176.9 million representing 46.6% growth on pcp and 2.3% growth on pro-forma pcp, alongside a record Order Book
• Core IPD business gross revenue growth of 5.2% on the pro-forma pcp, with CMI Operations gross revenues down 3.3% on the pro-forma pcp due to challenges across the commercial construction sector
• Data Centre revenue growing strongly, up 25% as a percentage of revenue on FY24
• Additional investments in the operating cost base to generate and deliver on the record Order Backlog have impacted margins in 1H FY25, as previously disclosed
• EPS of 12.9 cents for 1H FY25, up 19.4% on pcp, demonstrating the success of accretive acquisitions made in FY24
• Operating free cash flow (before interest and tax outflows) has continued to increase, rising to $25.3 million for 1H FY25 with Operating free cash flow conversion of 107.6% for 1H FY25 (up from 50% in the pcp)
• Net debt reduced to $2.2 million as at 31 December 2024 (down from $8.8 million at 30 June 2024), and subsequent to 31 December 2024 the Group has repaid $10.0 million of core debt.
• Fully franked interim dividend of 6.4 cents per share declared, up 39.1% on pcp
 
Interesting how similar the results are to $SXE, both have had fantastic halves showing just how strong the sector has been. As discussed I looked hard at IPG but in the end decided it was no better a business than $SXE which I already had a substantial holding in.
 
IPG @ 3.23 before luncheon. went as low as 3.11
Full FY25 guidance revised down.
Not confident enough to call it but my scenario for an active double top is stengthened; although arguably the target for that was met @ ~3.25. Anyway it's still downtrending.
I imagine only fundamentalists might step up to buy it on current appearances, not chartists?

Not Held
Attracted at the right price



WEEKLY not showing today's ~7% decline
 
Market Matters on the weekend answering a subscriber question about IPG

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au

Held by me
Accumulate

"Hi Angela,

For subscribers not familiar with IPD Group (IPG) its as $320mn NSW based company specialising in the distribution and servicing of electrical infrastructure products, complementing its product offerings, IPG also provides a suite of service options.

The stock has struggled through 2025 due to concerns around its 2nd half although the first half read well: The company reported record revenue of $176.9 million (+46.6%) and profit (NPAT) of $13.3 million (+40%).

The full-year guidance implied a weaker second half. Specifically, the projected earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for H2 FY25 were expected to decline by 7.5% compared to H1, which raised concerns about the company’s growth trajectory.
However, back around $3 we believe the stock is representing reasonable value trading on 12.4x and forecast to yield more than 4% fully-franked.

NB We caution the stock doesn’t trade huge volume."
 
finicky said:
NB We caution the stock doesn’t trade huge volume."
Click to expand...
neither do i

$3 ( as a maximum ) guide , maybe i should revisit the research

i do not hold this stock ( and don't currently have any orders in the market for it )

if the larger narrative is to believed electrical infrastructure will need to be enlarged ( and improved )
 
IPG @ 3.02
Second buy - tacked on 1,000 @ 3.03

Not an unreasonable level to anticipate a swing low, although there are scant candlestick signs of it yet.
Have a fair amount of doubt that this level will hold for a longer term low.
My original target for that was ~3.25 taking a measured move from ~4.25 but another broken level of ~3.75 suggests a measured move down to ~2.25. Not that I am expecting that, or why would I be buying around $3 - restlessness? Just see 2.25 as one card in a small pack.
All pretty arbitrary but emboldens me to make decisions.

Held
Accumulate

WEEKLY
 
has now gone below $3 , NOW i am interested

let's see where to i lob in my small toehold ( bid )

am looking this as a long term play , but will try to average down based on a weakening economy
 
and just like that i have a toehold
bought this morning @ $2.85

that was a surprise ( i thought that might have been taken next week )
 
I wrote this yesterday straight after I bought @ 3.03 but forgot to hit the post reply button:
"Now 2.95!
Think I'll hold off"
Held
Accumulate"
Click to expand...
Now I still think I'll wait

Held
Accumulate
 
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