The gulf between what's happening in the market place and the views of the permabulls in this thread is amazing.
hello,
<deleted>
we all still waiting on the ABS data, the last quarter showed a great result considering the shock exchange, and "maybe" people will be surprised again come next quarter results,
thankyou
robots
Im not waiting on any data - Ive seen the falls and discounting in the market.
Esp given that last quarter showed something like a 9% annualised fall in syd and things are clearly worse now.
Ive been happy enough with the market to want to buy all year ... right now its a pure buyers market Id snap up the right house at the sort of prices Im seeing.
I think its more the permabulls looking for the one bit of hope amongst all the other clearly negative signs.
For me its of marginally more interest than Beej posting the 1 or 2 sales inner north sales from homepriceguide when there are 200-300 houses languishing on the market.
For me its of marginally more interest than Beej posting the 1 or 2 sales inner north sales from homepriceguide when there are 200-300 houses languishing on the market.
The auction results I have posted list 100's of properties all selling at auction every week at good prices - in many cases near records for the area's. Last weekend in Sydney 60% clearance on volume up ~75% from the previous weekend.
Those of you who are expecting/hoping for a continuing price crash - well good luck to you, but I really don't see it happening, and I'm actually out there looking. If anyone can post specific instances of actual forced SALES at low prices in good area's in Sydney please go right ahead.
Cheers,
Beej
Those of you who are expecting/hoping for a continuing price crash - well good luck to you, but I really don't see it happening, and I'm actually out there looking. If anyone can post specific instances of actual forced SALES at low prices in good area's in Sydney please go right ahead.
Cheers,
Beej
We are going into an era of tighter money, property will crash, watch the cycle.
Ok set your watch by this -
1. Rising interest Rates
2. Falling Share Prices
3. Falling Commodity Prices
4. Falling Overseas Reserves
5. Tighter Money
6. Falling Real Estate Values
7. Falling Interest Rates
8. Rising Share Prices
9. Rising Commodity Prices
10. Rising Overseas Reserves.
11. Easier Money
12. Rising Real Estate Values
One or two sales??? I have posted specific links to *selected* sales only to highlight to people examples of what is ACTUALLY happening vs all the BS and conjecture that get's posted on this thread. The auction results I have posted list 100's of properties all selling at auction every week at good prices - in many cases near records for the area's. Last weekend in Sydney 60% clearance on volume up ~75% from the previous weekend.
It's strange, but my experience right now is so different to yours Pepperoni - maybe it's just the different price range (sub $2M), but every decent place I've had interest in in the last 3 weeks has sold, and for good prices. There are plenty of buyers out there, plenty of bids at most auctions. The only places I see languishing on the market are houses that typically languish anyway as they are compromised in some way or over-priced, or have a crap agent and/or are poorly presented.
Again, top tier property was hit hard in the early 90s as well - quite similar price falls and volume drop off to right now. It turned out that that was absolutely the bottom for prestige houses in Sydney and was by far the best time to buy for 20 years. I agree with you that we are in that situation now - especially for the prestige end - and this is no surprise, it happens periodically, but I think we are just about at the bottom from what I am seeing. Soon the people who are all selling there sub $2M places will start buying at the higher end.
Those of you who are expecting/hoping for a continuing price crash - well good luck to you, but I really don't see it happening, and I'm actually out there looking. If anyone can post specific instances of actual forced SALES at low prices in good area's in Sydney please go right ahead.
Cheers,
Beej
ITS CRASHED!!!
I cant post sales as nothing is selling apart from the odd place you find off homepriceguide that Im not even aware of.
Ive posted some stupidly cheap advertised places ... they are not selling or being withdrawn.
You even went to one in cremorne ... waterfront reserve for "1.69m" - 2 failed auctions in 6 months. In cremorne - they would have started expecting boom prices of mid to low 2s ! In the boom they would have got that price in fricken woy woy.
On 2 other points posted ... yes land banking will prevent the supposed "30% crash" for years if not forever.
And with stamp duty on a niceish house near the CBD running at $100k I sincerely hope Ill never feel the need to upgrade ... but thats another thread.
The Real Estate sector index (XPJ) looks very bearish. Right now it looks to have completed a significant 5 wave decline (of multiple degrees as shown) since near the beginning of 07. When a 5 wave decline on indexes is visible, it means there will be a 3 wave correction (where we are now, and a reason for the increased sales) and then another 5 wave leg down. Hence, once completed a further 5 wave decline is required. The minimum scenario is the completion a full zig-zag correction (5-3-5) from the top of 07. It should be noted also, that in the US the housing index topped in mid 2005 (and declined in 5 waves from memory), then it took 2yrs or so before people actually saw the fallout. I doubt it'll be any different in Aust.
House prices tumble in 50pc of suburbs
September 28, 2008 03:00am
HOUSE prices fell in almost half of Sydney's suburbs in the three months to the end of August.
A new report released by property analysts Residex found that 241 of 543 Sydney suburbs - or 44.3 per cent - registered a downturn in capital growth.
Postcodes across the city, including the north shore and other affluent areas, recorded falls.
Even Point Piper, Sydney's most-expensive address, posted a drop in capital growth of 2.29 per cent during the August quarter to a median of $7.87 million.
Overall, Sydney house prices fell by 1.74 per cent to a median of $569,000, despite the drop in official interest rates in August.
However, the unit sector held up relatively well despite negative growth in 229 suburbs.
Apartment prices fell by just 0.75 per cent in the August quarter, but grew by 3.09 per cent in the year to the end of August to a median of $399,500 reflecting a supply shortage which is underpinning prices and pushing up rents.
Head Residex statistician John Edwards said housing affordability was at its lowest.
"Distressed sales are everywhere now," he said. "The decay is making its way into the middle- and upper-income areas as well."
Mr Edwards said stock-market problems had made parts of the north shore particularly susceptible - bad news for homeowners but good news for those in the market to buy a new home.
"You could find some really good sales in middle to upper-income areas such as Turramurra, St Ives, Pymble and Killara," he said.
Killarney Heights, Turramurra, Forestville, East Lindfield and Mount Colah were the worst performers in Sydney, recording drops of more than five per cent in the August quarter.
In some suburbs, this could represent a saving for homebuyers of up to $70,000.
Mr Edwards calculated that it takes 53.5 per cent of the average gross take-home wage to pay off a home loan and 37 per cent of the average gross take-home wage to pay off a unit.
"Australian families are carrying about as much debt as they can handle," Mr Edwards said.
"It's all about interest rates as far as the property market is concerned."
What the Reserve Bank does from now on will have a tremendous impact on confidence in the market and will essentially determine what happens to values.
"The interest-rate drop in August stopped the rot and brought a little confidence back to the market, which helped stabilise it and stopped it going into a tailspin."
Independent property commentator John Wakefield said a softening market coupled with an increase in stock this spring signalled a buyer's market.
"We will see more stock on the market as we move into spring," Mr Wakefield said.
"Regardless of whether the market is good or bad, there are always more properties offered for sale at this time of the year and we shouldn't underestimate the potential that added competition offers buyers. The market is poised for a long period of softness and buyers can take advantage of that."
Many of Sydney's successful suburbs were in the beachfront areas of the north and east and the inner west.
Bronte topped the best-performers list with a jump in capital growth for houses of 22.6 per cent to a median $2.39 million in the year to the end of August, while nearby Clovelly and Tamarama also posted capital growth of more than 20 per cent.
Homebush West and Enfield also made it onto the exclusive list registering growth of more than 19 per cent to record the same median house price of $749,500.
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