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Re: XAO Analysis

What people need to realise is that I didn’t just wake up one day and say, “right, I’m going to ditch moving averages and become an Elliott Wave trader”, and later on suddenly decide “wow, I think I’ll use time cycles instead of Elliott Wave”. It was a slow and methodical process, and evolved over time with much trial and error.

I’m pretty sceptical, and I don’t change my thinking lightly. I am inquisitive, and I do investigate, but I’m careful and slow to change until I’m sure about something, and satisfied I have realistically researched it enough to make a rigorous appraisal.

I used to day trade Warrants many years ago, and had some great wins early on, using a moving average oscillator approach. What happened though is that over time I had some spectacular losses which more than negated my wins, when many of my long positions suddenly pulled back hard, and I exited on stop for a significant loss.

I also found that when stocks were trending down that I’d buy false breaks, watch the stock dive, exit, and then watch the damn thing go flying to the stars with me out of it, and with a reduced bank account. Sound familiar?

One day I got the shock of my life when I put up around 80K on a trade, and once long, the stock was put into a trading halt on bad news. I can still remember the sick feeling today, I’m sure my face went white, and I felt like I’d been in a car accident. This called for a major reappraisal about everything I was doing because it wasn’t working in the long run.

I learnt more about risk to reward, position sizing, more about leveraged instruments and how they worked, read every psychology book I could get my hand on. But importantly I recognised the moving average system I had wasn’t working, I’d buy false breaks, overstay positions that were winners only to see them become gaping losses, get out of positions on stop and see the stock rocket to where I would have made a profit…

So, how did I get here?


I discovered pure charting, and read every book on the subject I could find. I did candle stick charts, technical patterns, and started to move ahead slowly again. But even this wasn’t enough. Sure, I got really good at recognising a range of candlestick patterns and interpreting bars and volume by the traditional technical analysis methods, but still these sudden shifts would happen as if from nowhere, and I thought “there must be a better way”. So, I discovered Elliott Wave (EW).

EW really helped since I was using derivatives that had a time component, and one of the biggest problems I suffered from was getting the direction right, and the magnitude, but got the timing wrong, hence lost because I didn’t buy enough time.

So, I got better and better at using wave structure to position from, and sort of began to understand how markets trend in waves. In retrospect this was pretty rudimentary, but it was a marked improvement even while this was driven primarily by the moving average mechanical system.

Then I had a break though. I found a really good trader online, I’d seen his calls, and they were consistently good. In fact they were better than good, they were amazing. He’d call exact dates to enter and exit. He knew which way a stock or index was trading, and when to get in on a pull back if long, or a rally to go short, with such precision, it took my breath away.

Interestingly, this guy took a lot of flak from the naysayers who just couldn’t accept what he was doing, because they didn’t understand his methods, and were trying to promote their own style at the expense of his. I thought, “wow, this guy is really good. It sure beats the pants off what I’m doing. Why don’t I have a look at that and see if I can work out how to do the same thing”.

So I began listening to his suggestions, and he gave me a few pointers. He suggested McLaren, and ditching all the indicators and focusing on straight bar chart and volume. This was hard to do at first, but I did it. The first day I watched that Foundation DVD, my head spun (this was only the first set by the way).

“What was I thinking for all that time trading” I thought. “I know NOTHING.”. That’s when I decided to halt all trading and focus on the new material to the exclusion of all else. I ate drank and breathed that material, poured over charts, took notes, tried to apply the knowledge and paper trade it.

Then suddenly I was doing all sorts of freaky things like working out resistance and support in price sometimes to the cent consistently, so that other traders I knew were impressed and started to take notice too. A couple of guys I knew got in on the act too, and we started to meet regularly to study the material together. Then a lot of pennies dropped, and I started to see counter trends, and patterns that blew my mind.

Later as time went on, I got the time factor DVD, and that changed everything. I had no idea about how important time was. It was a long time digesting all the ideas there (still don’t think I’ve worked all of these out yet either), and I started to accumulate a lot of Gann’s materials, and sought out people using Gann.

Mostly there were a lot of (in my view) flimsy so called “Gann” systems and approaches out there that in no way resembled what I was learning. I still think there is a lot of bunk out there masquerading as “Gann” that either has little to do with it, or used outdated ineffective methods, and the course charges had to be seen to be believed.

So, my little group flourished, and I really got my head around the material, but my mentor kept saying, "you haven’t got it yet". This was incredibly frustrating for a long, long time. But finally, I was able to make some really good trades and suddenly a huge “aha” moment happened when I was able to really see support and resistance in time and price using the time cycles.

Many have seen my work in action, and it’s up to the individual to determine if they think this approach is worthwhile. Just think about this though, I don’t have a course to sell, so there’s no ulterior motive there. The fact that I keep my core IP to myself should tell people something. If I was a dog and pony show course seller, I’d be promoting my site and selling materials and courses etc. But I don’t. My focus is on trading the market as effectively as possible for me. That’s it.

What I have done is to try to return the favour for the support generously given to me for those who need the help. I really don’t have an ego stake in this, I just love the art for itself. I am passionate about it, and love to share this passion with like minds. So, whatever nonsense goes on at the periphery, this is my prime motivation.


Regards



Magdoran
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Now about that ZINC chart.



Thought you missed it!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We really should do another thread for this...people are going to miss something really important on the XAO

ASX.G
 
Re: XAO Analysis

happy to see Moggies XAO chart as well.

But as usual deflection from the question.
Moggie types a lot but really says very little.

Soon as you discuss and question Moggies analysis it becomes a battle.
He's more evasive than a politician.

Moggie the ZINC CHART

Then lets have a look at your XAO chart.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

One thing I have noticed among the Gann practioners in particular Yogi, is that they come up with quite a few dates that are deemed to being significant. My question to them is, how do you know which dates might be significant and which ones are not? How does one go about trading from these dates and how do establish the magnitude of a move following a "key date"?

In my own work throughout the years I have tried very hard to narrow down the possibilities/probabilities and try and stack the cards in my favour for possible trades. Especially with regard to reducing the vast amount of EW alternate scenarios. Have tried to do this a number of ways, and presently looking at another different form of TIME analysis(not Gann related)

With regard to the amount of possible dates in the Gann analysis, I think Glenn Neely summed it up pretty well when he looked at it. He correctly made the point that a method should look at reducing the amount of possibilities not increase them.

By the same token I respect that that it is possible on occasion the make both price and time forecasts using this method and as Mag has demonstrated in the past. Once again how significant a forecast date may be, does not easily seem to be determined by this analysis. That is not to say that it cannot be done using this method though.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

a few 'live-time' traded charts would address most of the questions that are out there Magdoran. can't be that tough, surely.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
a few 'live-time' traded charts would address most of the questions that are out there Magdoran. can't be that tough, surely.
Click to expand...
Hello all and Edwood,


It’s this simple: tech/a is hell bent on extracting both wavepicker’s and my IP, and has been at us to divulge what we are doing for a long time. No dice for the duck. He can quack all he wants, but it’ll be a cold day in hell before he gets one modicum of our work.

This is because tech has insulted both wavepicker and I in PMs and has been an ardent trouble maker for years (on other sites – this is not a new attack from him, just a repetition of the tired old cliché’s). At one point I thought we’d reached an accommodation, only to find he was back to his old abusive tricks again.

I will post what I like, when I like, in my own good time.

If people are really interested please read my posts, especially the ones that direct them to both past and current forecasts and examples of my work that I have already posted. There are a host of charts and histories out there if you look for them. This bullying by tech is not new, and he does this all the time with me, and has for years. Sometimes you just get tired of his selective memory on this subject, and every so often he trots this nonsense out for new people who don’t know his belligerent history…

Hence, here is a taste of what is out there. I’ve even made it simple enough for people to just click through the post and thread links, how’s that?

The best case in point as I keep saying is on the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread, where tech was doing exactly the same nonsense, but despite his rudeness I actually put up some charts and ran through the process at a high level. I posted up then as much IP as I’m likely to post. See post 29 below and read on from there:
Magdoran said:
Hello barney
Click to expand...


BHP example:

See the real chart provided with the BHP commentary on the “Potential swing trades” thread where once again tech was even discussing this but conveniently forgets my work yet again with that selective memory of his:

Magdoran said:
To me this is still bullish, and expect BHP to reach one of the price targets around 23rd Feb ($32, 30.16, 31.07, 29.54).
Click to expand...


XAO example:

This is the most salient example of my work so far, and I have even gone to the trouble of setting up links for you:

First post of the projection for the XAO high in the “Zinc the metal for 2006” thread on 22 January 2007

Magdoran said:
my best shot guess currently for the XAO is a bullish drive of some kind into a top around the 24th of Feb
Click to expand...

Actual forecast for the XAO February high 01 February 2007 on the “Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques”


Price forecast for the XAO top in the ZFX – Zinifex on 17 February 2007:


Series of comments warning people of an impending correction:

February 23 2007:
Magdoran said:
"Ring, RING!"
Click to expand...

Key warning 26 February 2007



On the “International Index Trading” thread you can look at the current DAX call (particularly posts 327, 350 ) - you may find this of interest to your recent DAX trade if you look at my posts chronologically with the charts (don’t forget that the actual DAX trading date is one day behind the published dates):




I haven’t had time to link the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread but the projections there are also relevant.

You may also wish to view the US market calls (post 326 and 418), on the “International Index Trading” thread and the Gold call on the Gold thread which are currently running real time.


Magdoran said:
Current musings on the S&P 500
Click to expand...

For past examples have a look back on the “Trading the SPI Gann Technique” thread and you’ll find a series of calls there, the most salient being the XAO call which was made a month out, and the supporting call for the DAX is there too.

There is also a current call on the gold thread too, but again, haven’t had time to do links for this. Also, the Zinc example goes right back through the ZFX thread, hence may be of interest too, but this takes time to set up. Please appreciate that I’m doing all the research that you guys could do if you went back chronologically through threads.

So Edwood, please take the time to go through your own charts in line with my posts, and really examine the work honestly, and see what you think.

Hope that helps…


Mag

P.S. Time for bed, YAWN!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker---EXACTLY

Moggie.
I have no interest in your IP (Whatever IP is).

The exact point I make about Gann analysis Wavepicker has managed to put into words and I have placed into graphic picures in the ZINC example.

I dont know what it is but all practitioners of Gann avoid direct questions and start attacking the person.
My and Edwood's questions I see as legitimate.The sort of question most would ask who have seen the proponderance of "Pressure points" and the sad lack of trading application of GANN by its exponents.

There is a ZINC chart up there with questions attached---all you do is avoid directly answering it.

This should serve as a warning to anyone considering education in GANN as this is the type of circular,avoidance you will encounter from practitioners.

Again an observation from my own experience when directly questioning GANN practitioners.

I think Moggie has summed it up IN HIS case well.
"I just love the art for itself."--- Its a never ending challenge to refine to a point where you CAN apply it. As you have stated your working continually on the "Time" component. Seems you fully understand my questions---you dont have an answer.

Application isnt a priority----personally Moggie I doubt you trade---well consistently anyway.Which explains the lack of practical application.

Thats fine and NOT a personal attack simply an observation.

To apply the likes of Gann and Elliott timelines I dont think you need to be spot on anyway.Infact to trade profitably you dont need time at all.
Handy yes---a prerequisite to profit NO.

Moggie this ISNT ABOUT YOU.
Its about the APPLICATION of the ANALYSIS.

I'll have a look at your other references.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


have a great day

paul



=====
 
Re: XAO Analysis

You see, this is the kind of BS you get with tech. I get so sick of his circular arguments, where he keeps repeating the same argument over and over irrespective of whatever anyone else says. His views are set in concrete, and nothing anyone else says will change his view.

He’s like a stuck record – he attacks your integrity, ignores the logic of your argument, twists what you say, and accuses you of being evasive when you directly address his sophistry head on.

Then he pigeon holes people, just like a racist would in Alabama during the height of the race riots. Once Tech tars someone with a brush, they forever have those warped attributes in his mind, and then he attacks the reality and goes into denial. This is a sick, sick mind here. A complete psychopath in action.

He becomes obsessed with attacking the straw man creations of his, which is why no one can change tech’s mind, because he warps everything into the fantasy world he constructs in his mind. You just can’t have a constructive dialogue with someone who is this far out of touch with reality. I’ve tried to develop a constructive relationship with him, believe me. It is a struggle, and it’s not the responsibility of anyone on ASF to be his wet nurse.

Just see the conversations on the Improving chart analysis thread, and many of the interactions after this, when he slipped back into his tirades. What caused the renewal of hostilities with him sending wavepicker and I abusive PMs? Reality is what did it. I’ll say more in detail in the next post.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

You be the judge:

Here’s the facts: For all of tech’s ability as a chartist, he was caught completely by surprise when the corrective move happened from 28 February onwards.

Tech does not accept that I’d figured out a highly probable time and index level point for the XAO to hit a high on February 23 2007. Just look through my published comments around this time to see what I was thinking in post 534 above, get out your own chart of the All Ordinaries index, and follow my comments and make up your own mind.

I have presented my evidence that I was fully aware that a correction in my view was a high probability, and said so. For those who are interested (and if you’re sick of this nonsense, then I can sympathise, I’ve endured this crap from tech for years), please evaluate the evidence and come to your own conclusion on this issue.

This recent tirade of tech’s stems I think from a combination of jealousy, and the need to tear down an alternative way of looking at the market that he doesn’t understand, by any means possible.

He feigns interest, but his real motivation is to attack and destroy, discredit and abuse. If he really was interested in an open and constructive discussion, he’d do as others have done like Lesm for example (see his approach in the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread).

tech/a said:
This should serve as a warning to anyone considering education in GANN as this is the type of circular,avoidance you will encounter from practitioners.
Click to expand...

Now, how exactly is putting up all the evidence in post 534 avoidance? How is posting up forecasts ahead of time (as tech has consistently been demanding for years) “avoidance”? How is responding with charts and comments in the “Improving Chart Analysis”, and the “Potential swing trades” threads - “Avoidance”?

What does he want? He calls for charts to look at the process of Analysis. When this is done, he switches to saying “how is this applied”. When this is clearly demonstrated by examples of entry and exit rules in post 512 on this thread he reverts to his next piece of sophistry and says:

Does this not seem a little biased? He has imposed his judgment yet again without even looking at the counter arguments.

The fact that I've posted both charts, forecasts and numerous responses to questions is not recognised, and this is labelled “avoidance”. How would we describe tech’s behaviour? Belligerent? Caustic? Psychopathic? Bigoted? Fanatical? Harassing? Abusive? I’m sure you can think of some more.

This is why debating tech is pointless. He just doesn’t acknowledge anything that doesn’t conform to his narrow views, then twists any other comment and selectively quotes anything to support his false conclusion. Then he uses the tactic of discrediting the other person saying that they are reverting to “personal attacks”, when it has been him all along who has initiated the slur in the first place.

tech/a said:
Application isnt a priority----personally Moggie I doubt you trade---well consistently anyway.Which explains the lack of practical application.

Thats fine and NOT a personal attack simply an observation.
Click to expand...

This is how he moves to attack the integrity of the person he is debating.

Apparently I don’t trade at all, and if I did, it couldn’t be profitable.

And if it was profitable then there is a lack of application.

And if there isn’t a lack of application, I’m hiding something because I’m not posting up all my IP (that’s Intellectual Property – basically original ideas).

If I post up a chart, then I’m not showing how you’d trade a set up. If I outline how to position in an example, then he reverts to the line about Gann practitioners launching personal attacks – you can’t satisfy him with logic. What he wants is for you to agree with his view. It is just like a religious fanatic – reality has no relevance.

This is his never ending circular approach. But he never actually addresses the inherent logic raised by anyone else if it refutes his inflexible viewpoint. This is why I have concluded that it is pointless discussing anything with tech.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Zinc Campaign Explained.


This is the full Zinc campaign as it unfolded chronologically, warts and all. It was quite accurate in places, and failed in others in terms of my evolving ability to interpret the time cycles effectively, but interestingly, the cycle remained valid throughout once it was correctly calibrated.

There are two levels that people seem to want to understand: one is about the analysis, the other is how to use this analysis in order to build a trading system with entry and exit rules.

I maintain that in both there is a lot of flexibility depending on the individuals goals, time frame, money management and expectancy choices, choice of instrument, level of risk tolerance, and any other relevant preferences (just like any style of trading).

In later posts I will explain my trading rules for translating the analysis into trades by dividing the posted charts up into scenario sections. This will illustrate an example of how the analysis can be used in order to develop a trading plan. This is because trying to fit everything including all the charts into one post would be too large, hence I’ll deal with the whole campaign in installments.

Below is the chronological order of posts that everyone can access at their leisure, and I’d suggest getting a zinc chart, and following the action with the posts. For the best results, if you have a “training mode” function to wind back the data to the day of the post, this would really help you to put yourself in the position of the analyst without the latter price action. Don’t forget that the post dates are a day ahead of the actual price action because of the trading time for the LME market:


Chronological posts with Zinc charts:

17 February 2007: ZFX – Zinifex thread.

Magdoran said:
How long will the decline last, how long will the basing last, and how much momentum would a wave 5 have, and for how long? Too early for me to forecast this currently – but I’m working on it.
Click to expand...

23 February 2007: ZFX – Zinifex thread.

Magdoran said:
Latest Update to the Zinc musings chart...
Click to expand...

27 February 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Magdoran said:
Current Zinc chart...
Click to expand...

27 February 2007: ZFX – Zinifex


05 March 2007: ZFX – Zinifex

Key chart!!!

Magdoran said:
Here’s my current musings on Zinc.
...
Here’s my “each way bet” as the peons would say – this baby is going down
Click to expand...


18 April 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Key Chart!!!


18 April 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Key Chart

Magdoran said:
chart.
Click to expand...


02 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Magdoran said:
Latest Zinc chart.
Click to expand...

04 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007

Magdoran said:
Latest Zinc Chart
Click to expand...


15 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007


17 May 2007: ZINC - The Metal for 2007



That concludes the chronological links to the actual posts. I will break this campaign into move by move scenarios, and show how to utilise this analysis and apply it to actual trading.

Please understand that doing this is a heavily time consuming activity, and I will update the scenarios as time permits.



Regards,



Magdoran
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hello Trade IT,

I really appreciate your input and support!!!


Mag
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cheers for the details Magdoran, interesting to track through it, am sure it must've taken a bit of time to pull it together - on a Sunday too!

had a look at one of your first Zinc charts & put a fib extension on wave A, projected to around 4,071 (thereabouts, I can't see the figures very well) on a 1.618 extension into C. Can't tell from the chart but would be interesting to see if there is any fib pattern in the no. of days for each move.

then went down a few of your posts & the C extension target comes up pretty similar to yours. no. of days could help to determine possible days to target & hence a time date.

have to say I don't profess to being an Elliott expert, find the fibs useful tho. out of interest - where did it turn from when it dropped 4%?

thanks again for taking the time to post and apologies to the XAO thread for getting so far off topic

Ed


 
Re: XAO Analysis

steven1234 said:
Theres only one way to settle this, post your time and price estimates and a brief explanation behind your methodology..... We can revist in a few weeks and determine who was closer.
Click to expand...
Hello steven1234,


You raise an excellent suggestion here.

But tech is unlikely to do this because his main style is based on lagging indicators. While I think he is improving in Elliott Wave, I suspect that he will weigh the odds of him making a better forecast than me, and conclude that the odds aren’t in his favour.

We have to remember that none of us have a crystal ball or the Holy Grail. All we have are methods that aim to achieve a consistently profitable edge.

My style is about trading swings with derivatives. Tech uses margin on shares, and has only recently been looking at CFDs. I’ve been trading all sorts of derivatives for years, and have in the past been contracted to conduct seminars in this area, hence the ground is not “even” between us on this basis.

But as Trade IT correctly says, our styles are chalk and cheese. Ironically, I think that for the type of bull market we’ve had since late 2002, his approach has been very successful and worked well in a nicely trending market. I have on previous occasions saluted his work on Reefcap with techtrader.

He at one point seemed to see some merit in what I was doing on the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread, but has since reverted to attack after I’d called the February 2007 high, and I suspect he’d been caught long with a lot of margin based positions based on his abusive PM he sent over, which triggered a deluge of denial about the call because he missed it and I didn’t.

Funny how some people channel their anger and shoot the messenger/prophet sometimes.

He just doesn’t get it. He still struggles with EW, and doesn’t really understand counter trends. Don’t get me wrong, in some ways he is an excellent technical analyst, he sees some patterns really well, and knows how to trade them. But there are patterns like ending diagonals, and especially time based counter trends he just doesn’t see.

Because he can’t see them, he believes they don’t exist. Over on RC he had a huge bun fight with some (mostly not very good) Gann traders, and since then attacked anyone using even one tiny component of “Gann”. To my knowledge though, he has never researched this area, or thoroughly read any Gann originals, or any of McLaren’s detailed course work (he has followed the commentary on McLaren’s site, but without understanding how it all works).

If I was to blindly attack techtrader, then I’d be guilty of the same flaw as tech, but I recognise the benefits and logic behind it. Personally I can see flaws in it, but realise that technical analysis involves trade offs. Hence I can see the positive elements in his work, and have never criticised his efforts, unlike how he has attacked mine.

He also tried to make out that I’m a “Gannist”, a label I reject. I’m a chartist first, and use elements of analysis from a range of sources, including Gann. But I’ve taken what works for me, and rejected other bits. But what I did was to actually do the research, so I can sort the wheat from the chaff in Gann, Elliott, and anything else that I take the time to study. He won’t do this.

But you can see his reactions to my posts (using the same user name) over on RC, and just read his rude and abusive comments there. I remained polite for a long time before I finally had enough of him.

Because of his personal attacks, this has cemented a personal view. It’s this simple. I have no more time for him.


Regards


Magdoran
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Moggie re Zinc chart.

Wasnt that hard was it!

Lookforward to whatever else you put up on it.

So basically from the analysis on THIS chart there wasnt a profitable trade.

Eh fair enough.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yup, TAG,


Good points, and I’m sorry this little “firefight” has interceded on this thread.

I did consider posting on another thread… I did start off on topic, so I hope you don’t mind if I extrapolate some ideas on Zinc as well as the XAO to throw some technical alternative perspectives up.

I figured if I yet again spell this stuff out for those who have missed it in the older threads, it may help them to see the logic for the XAO forecasts.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I responded to the focus on Zinc here by the way... I didn't select it...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:
Hello Trade IT,

I really appreciate your input and support!!!


Mag
Click to expand...

No worries Magdoran, any time, I don't think you need to buckle to any pushing or shoving.

keep up the great work.
 
Moggie.
I notice that the Gann grids in this case dont start from a significant low but from the higher low which you placed as a critical low which has so far held.

Surely this would have had a bearing on your time analysis and you could also have selected other significant Lows or Highs to give you timelines,there may have even been some confluence.

Why THAT low?

 
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