GTP - Great Southern Plantations

TheAnalyst · 30 January 2006

I sold all my BSLWMM today and now think it time to buy some more gtpizk's and might even get a few equity call warrants GTPWMA as welll with a ratio of 3:1 as the chart is looking good and worth the risk.

Not advice just what i do

TheAnalyst · 31 January 2006

Just need this one to break right thru the resistence of $3.75 and it should begin its march towards $4-$4.50 i bought my new lots this morning can someone just buy their new lot lolol

TheAnalyst · 31 January 2006

****Trading Account Number arrow1******

Code Holding Average
ANZIMP 600 1,873.80 3.123 2.94 1,764.00 -109.80
BGF 2500 1,044.75 0.418 0.44 1,100.00 55.25
GTPIZK 4200 3,861.48 0.919 1.42 5,964.00 2,102.52
MBLIWH 100 2,175.80 21.758 20.71 2,071.00 -104.80
MGX 1492 1,019.48 0.683 0.715 1,066.78 47.30
MMN 4500 1,032.30 0.229 0.245 1,102.50 70.20
QMG 1700 1,039.72 0.612 0.58 986.00 -53.72
RIOIZL 117 2,287.26 19.549 24.05 2,813.85 526.59
SEN 2000 1,639.80 0.82 0.785 1,570.00 -69.80

TOTAL $ 15,974.39

Market
Value $ Profit/Loss

$ 18,438.13 $ 2,463.74

Doesnt include this mornings accumulation of GTPIZK and GTPWMM

Also some trades prices are not up to date as most would now be in positive territory.

Who has got th eguts to show me theirs??

michael_selway · 31 January 2006

TheAnalyst said:
Just need this one to break right thru the resistence of $3.75 and it should begin its march towards $4-$4.50 i bought my new lots this morning can someone just buy their new lot lolol

Hi when u say "new lots" u mean GTP or GTP warrants?

Also next resistance after 3.75, u say 4-4.5, where abouts exactly in the range do u see it?

thx

MS

TheAnalyst · 31 January 2006

michael_selway said:
Hi when u say "new lots" u mean GTP or GTP warrants?

Also next resistance after 3.75, u say 4-4.5, where abouts exactalt in the range do u see?

thx

MS

Hi mick

I bought GTPIZK installment warrants and GTPWMA equity call warrants

I really aint using the resitence on the charts but it is a key point but am actually using fundamentals and price valuations and the actual growth in the whole sector that they trade in.

TheAnalyst · 1 February 2006

Anyone got any thoughts or assumptions on GTP

savtin1 · 1 February 2006

I believe it is a undervalued stock. It is being bought up now and it won't be too long before it is in the $4's.

Technically the chart looks good - uptrend although it needs to get back up to $4.30.

Fundamentally they are sound.

I have calculated a sales figure of between $450 - 500 million well above the $400 million that Macquaries calculated.....and they did say that any price figure over $400 will be a bonus....
'

regards

savtin

abucs · 2 February 2006

My thoughts are :

$230mil already to be recognised this year ($150m deferred from 05 and $80m in woodlot sales to 31 dec)
+ $80 mil viticulture (forecast - Roadshow January 2006)
+ $60 mil olives (forecast - Roadshow January 2006)
+ $230 mil remaining 2006 woodlots (conserative estimate)

= $600 mil.

And this is not counting any revenue from the new cattle product.

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

Did you see how many call warrants GTPWMA got sucked up....huge over 1mil....also what about all those insto's that have accumulated as well....the bulls are there.....and what about Nick radges view as well...even though i was way on to this one before him...but still he finally caught on as well...wished he got em as cheap as me i reckon...but then again...I am TheAnalyst

michael_selway · 2 February 2006

abucs said:
My thoughts are :

$230mil already to be recognised this year ($150m deferred from 05 and $80m in woodlot sales to 31 dec)
+ $80 mil viticulture (forecast - Roadshow January 2006)
+ $60 mil olives (forecast - Roadshow January 2006)
+ $230 mil remaining 2006 woodlots (conserative estimate)

= $600 mil.

And this is not counting any revenue from the new cattle product.

Hi Abucs is any of this revenue deffered till next financial year?

"+ $230 mil remaining 2006 woodlots (conserative estimate)"

Also Satvin, whats your breakdown for the 450-500mil revenue estimate

Thx

MS

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

i reckon they will be pushing to ensure they get recognised in this years financials as they would have already re arranged to settlement process to meet the new IAS'S this time around

abucs · 2 February 2006

Hi guys,

TheAnaylst, you could be right with the focus on sales for TFY. Perhaps that explains the great half year result and the reluctance by management to make much out of it.

From my understanding of the new accounting rules you could take $200 million out of my $600m figure when calculating profits for 06. This $200 million would be deferred to 07 giving GTP another launching pad for next year.

Working on the most recent margin of 40% NPAT to sales this would give GTP a profit for 06 of $160 million (0.4 x $400m). That's an increase of around 30% on last years figure and as stated that's not counting cattle for this year or any improvement in 2nd half wood plantation sales.

I wonder if the recent international roadshow has attracted any overseas buyers who are driving the price ?

As mentioned by Macquarie in their report, cashflow seems to be very important for this company. The more sales they make (timber) the more land they will have to buy, and the less cash they have for dividends without capital raisings.

I guess it's a question for GTP when is it enough regarding their timber landholdings. That's why i'd like to see a great investor response to the more cash flow positive products of grapes, olives and cattle.

I like the idea of owning more and more land, but then i'd like the dividends as well !!

savtin1 · 4 February 2006

Michael, Selway,

My break -up is as follows:

1. Timber plantations = $79 million + $285M (same figure as last years second half result - hopefully proves to be conservative) = $364M

2. Vineyards - Based on the 1000 Ha projection = $80 but lets book in $75M

3. Olives - $55 million.

4. Cattle - $10 million

This gives us a total sales figure of $364+75+55+10 = $504Million much more than the conservative estimate of Macuaries Report which had stated $400M.

Note also that the proportion of the "other than plantation" is about 28% similar to what they forecast at the AGM of up to 30%.

Now the recoginsed revenue for the year will be as follows:-

1. plantation (recognised say 48%) = 364 x .48 =175
2. vineyards - (recognised = 90% a figure i got from GTP) = 75 x .9 =68
3. olives ( recognised = 70% same as above) = 55 x .7 = 38.5
4. cattle (85%) = 10x .85 = 8.5
5. deferred revenue of $150 m

therefore we have the following:
175+68+38.5+8.5+150 = $440Million add the other revenue as per last year say another $20million and this gives us Project Revenue of $460Million (45% increase on last years figure)

profit = .389 (similar margin to last year) x 460 = $178 million

cheers
savtin

GO GTP

michael_selway · 4 February 2006

savtin1 said:
Michael, Selway,

My break -up is as follows:

1. Timber plantations = $79 million + $285M (same figure as last years second half result - hopefully proves to be conservative) = $364M

2. Vineyards - Based on the 1000 Ha projection = $80 but lets book in $75M

3. Olives - $55 million.

4. Cattle - $10 million

This gives us a total sales figure of $364+75+55+10 = $504Million much more than the conservative estimate of Macuaries Report which had stated $400M.

Note also that the proportion of the "other than plantation" is about 28% similar to what they forecast at the AGM of up to 30%.

Now the recoginsed revenue for the year will be as follows:-

1. plantation (recognised say 48%) = 364 x .48 =175
2. vineyards - (recognised = 90% a figure i got from GTP) = 75 x .9 =68
3. olives ( recognised = 70% same as above) = 55 x .7 = 38.5
4. cattle (85%) = 10x .85 = 8.5
5. deferred revenue of $150 m

therefore we have the following:
175+68+38.5+8.5+150 = $440Million add the other revenue as per last year say another $20million and this gives us Project Revenue of $460Million (45% increase on last years figure)

profit = .389 (similar margin to last year) x 460 = $178 million

cheers
savtin

GO GTP

Hi Thx

In the 2nd half of the year, they earn alot more than the first half? Is there a reason for this?

"1. Timber plantations = $79 million + $285M (same figure as last years second half result - hopefully proves to be conservative) = $364M"

and another thing, u see below the trends in Revenue, NPAT, EPS etc

But how come an increase in 2005 NPAT of 124.3/93.2 = 33%, only means an increase in 2005 EPS of only 45.1/43.3 = 4.157%? Big difference! what happened there?

Is the number of shares increasing? how many shares does GTP have now?

NPAT $178 mil but divided by how many shares?

Thanks

MS

savtin1 · 4 February 2006

Michael,
Their EPS was affected last year due to the acquisition of the two companies
Environmest and the Tiwi Island Plantations as they issued more shares resulting in the dilution of the share registry. It is a short-term pain for a long term gain. they have approximatlety 300Million shares and with the new TREES3 (which can be converted in the future) some analysts would include these shares in the diluted EPS so i think it is 350million diluted shares....therefore my forecast EPS would be basic EPS 178/300 = 59cents ad diluted would be EPS = 178/350 = 50cents per share.

michael_selway · 6 February 2006