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GRR - Grange Resources

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by markrmau, Sep 28, 2005.

  1. Speculator

    Speculator

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    That peak of 15% jump on the 14th was a result of day traders making love to our GRR (was looking at the HC forums and found it was a favourite for the day).

    I didnt think GRR was up for a big week this week.

    Looks like well see some healthy consolidation for now and then hopefully (and likely imo) we get an excellent ann toward the end of month that gives us another boost past previous high.

    Still undervaled imo, DYOR.
     
  2. Speculator

    Speculator

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    Whole materials space seeing some serious profit taking in the face of this greece bull****.

    ASX pure play material co's seem to be taking the worst damage, at one stage today GRR hit -15%. the sp was in a state of flux for about 20mins.

    Congrats to those who kept there nerve and didn't sell on the way down or even better had the foresight to sell yesterday.

    Looks like we have found support at $0.60, although any more BS from global markets and GRR may loose that next 5% quick smart.

    Not what I was hoping for, even with a strong ann now immediate upside seems limited.

    Still a fav stock of mine and will add to my position (in comparitively small parcels) at these prices over the next couple of weeks.

    Spec.
     
  3. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Grange Resources

    Can't seem to find a thread for this. So I will start one with a chart.

    Looks like a decent break out on good volume, after 3 months of consolidation forming a prominent triangle.
     

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  4. Buckfont

    Buckfont

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  5. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias

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    I find it amusing that on the day the quartlerly is released, with all it's fundemental information, someone posts a technicals chart. :confused:

    I'm a very pleased holder, and I think there is alot of upside here.

    The only worrying factor for me is that price negotiations with Shagang and the like have been ongoing for a long, long time now, and while they've secured a good interm price, there hasn't been a solid long term agreement on how price will be determined for the future.
     
  6. liberdee

    liberdee

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    GRR has performed quite well of late, closing at $0.67 today. The last time it was at this price was almost 6 months ago (28/4/10). Does anyone have any idea as to why it's picking up or is it just that the economic climate is improving in general?

    I'm really very new to understanding the market, so thanks for any insights people may have.
     
  7. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias

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    Recent triggers positive triggers might be:

    -talk that the BHP / RIO alliance in the Pilbara will fall through
    -talk that magnetite will be excluded from any mining tax, or if it is included, it will be taxed at the first saleable point

    Both somewhat speculative points though.
     
  8. olleydog

    olleydog

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    What is going on with GRR? A few poor weeks... The fundamentals are too good for this sp weakness. I cant for the life of me see how some of the other iron ore players who are yet to produce a single tonne have a higher sp. As a producer, grange has taken full advantage of the big price jump in iron ore this year. I think GRR is still well short of fair value... any thoughts???
     
  9. MiFFy

    MiFFy

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    This thread has been a bit quiet.

    Grange continues to achieve an excellent result in the market and is looking set to continue to grow now that it is valued at over 1 Billion dollars.

    Volume and daily trades are much better over the past quarter compared with what we have seen in the past two years.

    Just an FYI for other investors here, in the latest Grange report I found the below statement:

    "Unit costs per tonne of pellets will increase in 2011, as a result of lower pellet tonnes produced, longer haul distances to the alternate ore supplies and the need to start re-building the 789 fleet that was purchased in 2008."

    No details on this statement were provided so I took the liberty of emailing grange investor relations with the below question;

    Current unit costs per tonne are listed at $91.37 per tonne of pellets produced, do you have an estimate on the percentage increase we may be likely to see around this metric? And can you offer any comments on the stability of the current negotiated contract price for the pellets?

    I then received an email back from Managing Director Russell Clark, which was pleasing that he would take the time to respond, and he informed me of the below information;

    I expect to see the cost of pellets at around $100 per tonne in 2011. We are still seeing a great margin as the current spot price for Pellets is around $190-$200 per tonne – which would give us revenue of around $400m on costs of approximately $230m.

    The current sales contracts have an interim price of $150 per tonne and this will be retrospectively adjusted when we finalise negotiations in February (again, the current price is around $190 per tonne). The negotiations are going well and I see no issues in finalising them – it just takes time.


    I am not sure if any of this information is publicly listed, so I thought I would provide it on here.

    Once again the outlook is looking promising for Grange and I moved to 100% investment in Grange at around .26c. I am only now starting to look for other stocks. My ultimate target for GRR is $2.50 and I hope to see this by the end of 2012/early 2013 on good development of Southdown.

    Please be aware, these are my own opinions, do your own research :)
     
  10. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias

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    Thanks for sharing your correspondence with us Miffy. Nothing earthshaking there, but finalizing the pricing in February is more specific. Still they've been saying the pricing would be nailed down every quarter for ages now, so I'll believe it when I see it.
     
  11. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias

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    Pretty big hit today.

    I spotted this bit of news from MetalBulletin.com (http://www.metalbulletin.com/Articl...reference-for-pellet-contracts-md-says.html):

    Iron ore pellet producer Grange Resources is using index prices for iron ore fines as a reference for its steel-customer pellet contracts, md Russell Clark told MB.

    The miner, which produces around 2.1 million tpy of pellet from its Savage River operation in northwest Tasmania, has two offtake deals in place.

    One deal is for 1.3 million tpy with its biggest shareholder Shagang and the other is with Australian steelmaker Bluescope Steel for 800,000 tpy of blast furnace feed pellets.

    Since the breakdown of the annual benchmark system, the miner has been receiving $150 per tonne fob from its two customers. This was an interim agreement on the basis that Grange would evaluate market intelligence in order to accurately price material, Clark said.

    In this period of time the miner has been able to calculate a more appropriate formula that takes into account freight differentials, iron content as well as Vale’s pellet pricing.

    “As a rule of thumb, we add around $50 per tonne premium on top of the 62% Fe cfr China [fines] price to get an fob [pellet] price,” he explained.

    The miner now uses the monthly average of one of the 62% Fe indices and adds this premium on a monthly basis, he said.

    And Grange is to receive a retrospective payment from its two offtakers now it has devised this method.

    “1.3 million tonnes of material will be retrospectively priced,” Clark said.

    This will be priced at around $180-210 per tonne fob for the period, he estimated.


    By the above, the pricing mechanism has been finalized. Why this hasn't been formally announced to the market I don't know.
     
  12. oldblue

    oldblue

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    The Southdown project DFS has been approved by Grange and its partner, Sojitz.

    If that doesn't move the SP I think I'll quit them!
     
  13. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    That DFS is due to be finished in first quarter 2012 and then construction, so price might be slow to move up. Producing high grade magnetite for less than $60/ tonne might be severely affected with a carbon tax according to this article from June 1 2011.

    Perth Now.
     
  14. Mizer

    Mizer

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    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/grange-resources-to-take-10m-hit-from-carbon-tax/story-e6frg906-1226106987154

    Grange managing director Russell Clark told the Diggers & Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie yesterday that the sector should be excluded from the carbon tax because it was an energy-intensive, trade-exposed industry.

    Grange has forecast total costs next year of about $200m, meaning the carbon tax and reduction in the diesel rebate will represent a 5 per cent hit on Grange's Savage River magnetite mine in Tasmania.

    The company's planned Southdown mine near Albany in Western Australia, which is predicted to come into production by 2014, was not included in the calculations but is also likely to be hit by a price on carbon.

    Mr Clark said Grange would be unfairly penalised under the planned carbon tax from July next year because it would process the magnetite in Australia rather than offshore where no similar tax was imposed.

    Magnetite has a lower iron content than traditional hematite ores and must be processed before it can be sold to steelmakers.

    "We will get canned in Australia because we do the value-add here," Mr Clark said.

    Mr Clark said Grange, through its membership of the MagNet alliance of magnetite companies, continued to lobby the government, but it was unclear whether the sector would be excluded from the carbon tax.

    "I just get this sense that it's about the mining industry's ability to pay," he said after his presentation to the conference.

    Grange's complaints about the fresh imposts came as miners again lined up at the conference to criticise the Gillard government's carbon and mining taxes that will hit many resources projects.

    Gary Halverson, regional president of Barrick Gold, said the carbon tax was likely to have a $US12 an ounce impact on the world's largest goldminer.

    "It is not insignificant but it is manageable," he said.

    Association of Mining and Exploration Companies chief executive Simon Bennison said it was clear from feedback at Diggers & Dealers that the industry was still opposed to the proposed mining and carbon taxes.

    "Whatever way you look at it, the minerals exploration and mining sector will be faced with extra costs in doing business as a result of both taxes," he said.

    Mr Bennison said there was rising anger among junior miners over the decision to reduce the off-road diesel fuel rebate by 6c a litre.

    He said it would hit small mining companies in remote areas, and could cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.

    "These companies will be seriously discriminated against as a result," Mr Bennison said.
     
  15. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    Interesting run on. Was playing around last week with some scans, this popped up. Looking for a entry,

    GRR 20130107.gif
     
  16. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Did you make a new year resolution to trade equities?!

    Or someone hacked your account?
     
  17. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    Yeah decided that I have to waste my time. Futs are far too efficient form of trading.... :p:

    And i have decided to increase my philanthropic efforts to spread the wealth..... :(
     
  18. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    in @ 0.355, stop @0.32
     
  19. prawn_86

    prawn_86 Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

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    haha maybe TH is looking to muscle in on your turf SKC ;)
     
  20. tinhat

    tinhat Pocket Calculator Operator

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    Been on my watch list for about a year now. Getting close to meeting my buy signal but not yet.
     

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