Gold Price - Where is it heading?

qldfrog said:

I think you just miss the 8 years
before.... the various broken promises/treaties due to EU incompetence and Biden family clique
Definitely not a black and white issue....

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probably IF the Russians had of claimed they were honoring Minsk 2 guarantees , the media MIGHT have been more friendly ( just like they were with the 'police action' in Vietnam with the early US involvement ) ( and the Gulf War 1 )

and of course Angela Merkel publicly admitting Minsk 1 and 11 were deliberate delaying devices to strengthen Ukraine .. well this is the war the West wanted and plotted for

divs4ever said:

probably IF the Russians had of claimed they were honoring Minsk 2 guarantees , the media MIGHT have been more friendly ( just like they were with the 'police action' in Vietnam with the early US involvement ) ( and the Gulf War 1 )

and of course Angela Merkel publicly admitting Minsk 1 and 11 were deliberate delaying devices to strengthen Ukraine .. well this is the war the West wanted and plotted for

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you may have forgotten MH17, and irregulars in Donetsk and malevolent forces moving into Crimea.

but this is the Gold thread, .

I thought I'd post on Gold this evening having just now watched a segment of ABC News on Gold by Alan Kohler. He summarised the state of play, nothing new really. I happened to be reading a book on the importance of liquidity and the dangers of leverage in investing as well. It got me thinking as to the enormous increase in Gold acquisition by retail in Australia and I presume worldwide.

Two thoughts occurred to me.

• If one were to sell one's gold where would one put the cash? Australians though they whinge about being badly off are probably the most comfortable population in the world, the rule of law, more or less full employment, no wars to fund and being ruled by idiots on both sides of politics who fail at properly stuffing the place up. Stocks are on the nose somewhat, valuations are too high and interest rates are not high enough to set and forget for 12 months. There are few markets or commodities attractive enough for one without experience of those markets or commodities in which to invest. Spend the cash? Probably not "just in case".
• If gold is being given a full segment on the 7pm news there must be more people than ASF members investing in the stuff, and the publicity can only increase buying. I presume this is mirrored worldwide in the West. The ABC is also pushing gold as a safe asset so buyers can only increase in number, certainly not fall, unless one is an experienced trader taking profit.

So from the point of view of return, safety and lack of opportunity elsewhere, I believe gold will continue to have holders and new buyers in to the medium future. As to the price, who knows, that is for another post.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

I thought I'd post on Gold this evening having just now watched a segment of ABC News on Gold by Alan Kohler. He summarised the state of play, nothing new really. I happened to be reading a book on the importance of liquidity and the dangers of leverage in investing as well. It got me thinking as to the enormous increase in Gold acquisition by retail in Australia and I presume worldwide.

Two thoughts occurred to me.

• If one were to sell one's gold where would one put the cash? Australians though they whinge about being badly off are probably the most comfortable population in the world, the rule of law, more or less full employment, no wars to fund and being ruled by idiots on both sides of politics who fail at properly stuffing the place up. Stocks are on the nose somewhat, valuations are too high and interest rates are not high enough to set and forget for 12 months. There are few markets or commodities attractive enough for one without experience of those markets or commodities in which to invest. Spend the cash? Probably not "just in case".
• If gold is being given a full segment on the 7pm news there must be more people than ASF members investing in the stuff, and the publicity can only increase buying. I presume this is mirrored worldwide in the West. The ABC is also pushing gold as a safe asset so buyers can only increase in number, certainly not fall, unless one is an experienced trader taking profit.

So from the point of view of return, safety and lack of opportunity elsewhere, I believe gold will continue to have holders and new buyers in to the medium future. As to the price, who knows, that is for another post.

gg

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sensible summary; the only negative could be the lack of income. Interest or dividend payments are money in the pocket and very useful in delaying decisions , a multitude of which you have outlined, explicitly or implicitly.

Gold as an asset is approached differently.

Garpal Gumnut said:

I thought I'd post on Gold this evening having just now watched a segment of ABC News on Gold by Alan Kohler. He summarised the state of play, nothing new really. I happened to be reading a book on the importance of liquidity and the dangers of leverage in investing as well. It got me thinking as to the enormous increase in Gold acquisition by retail in Australia and I presume worldwide.

Two thoughts occurred to me.

• If one were to sell one's gold where would one put the cash? Australians though they whinge about being badly off are probably the most comfortable population in the world, the rule of law, more or less full employment, no wars to fund and being ruled by idiots on both sides of politics who fail at properly stuffing the place up. Stocks are on the nose somewhat, valuations are too high and interest rates are not high enough to set and forget for 12 months. There are few markets or commodities attractive enough for one without experience of those markets or commodities in which to invest. Spend the cash? Probably not "just in case".
• If gold is being given a full segment on the 7pm news there must be more people than ASF members investing in the stuff, and the publicity can only increase buying. I presume this is mirrored worldwide in the West. The ABC is also pushing gold as a safe asset so buyers can only increase in number, certainly not fall, unless one is an experienced trader taking profit.

So from the point of view of return, safety and lack of opportunity elsewhere, I believe gold will continue to have holders and new buyers in to the medium future. As to the price, who knows, that is for another post.

gg

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Ordinary people are losing faith in fiat currencies. i remember back in the 80s, the US dollar was rock solid. People didn't think about precious metals because one fiat currency was strong enough to hold up confidence in the global economy.

But times have changed. They changed even more after COVID. The powers that be have learned that print and spend can work, so they have embraced it because political expediency is King right now. But this party can only go on for so long. Eventually the music will stop and everyone will be left without chairs because the chairs will have been repossessed.

The only hedge against that inevitability is precious metals. I don't think the rate of money printing is going to slow and as a result we are going to be fighting inflation for as long as this increasingly rapid expansion of the money supply continues. Gold and silver are great insurance against the tough economic ahead and I am firmly in the camp that thinks that thinks a major economic crisis is coming this decade.

I will be buying the dip. Let's see where precious metals are in five years.

Garpal Gumnut said:

I thought I'd post on Gold this evening having just now watched a segment of ABC News on Gold by Alan Kohler. He summarised the state of play, nothing new really. I happened to be reading a book on the importance of liquidity and the dangers of leverage in investing as well. It got me thinking as to the enormous increase in Gold acquisition by retail in Australia and I presume worldwide.

Two thoughts occurred to me.

• If one were to sell one's gold where would one put the cash? ...

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In safe (s) ha ha ha ha ha.

Garpal Gumnut said:

• Australians though they whinge about being badly off are probably the most comfortable population in the world, the rule of law, more or less full employment, no wars to fund and being ruled by idiots on both sides of politics who fail at properly stuffing the place up. Stocks are on the nose somewhat, valuations are too high and interest rates are not high enough to set and forget for 12 months. There are few markets or commodities attractive enough for one without experience of those markets or commodities in which to invest. Spend the cash? Probably not "just in case".

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Spend it ever so lavishly. Folded has many benefits. Gamble it, bookies just luv cash Help people less fortunate than us and enjoy the luxuries of life.

Garpal Gumnut said:

• If gold is being given a full segment on the 7pm news there must be more people than ASF members investing in the stuff, and the publicity can only increase buying. I presume this is mirrored worldwide in the West. The ABC is also pushing gold as a safe asset so buyers can only increase in number, certainly not fall, unless one is an experienced trader taking profit.

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rcw1 has no problem with what you have said.

Garpal Gumnut said:

So from the point of view of return, safety and lack of opportunity elsewhere, I believe gold will continue to have holders and new buyers in to the medium future. As to the price, who knows, that is for another post.

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Reckon so too. As for PoG it will continue spates of gathering momentum and breaking PoG records for a very long time yet as countries continue to horde its stash for a 'rainy day' where a raincoat and umbellar would be useless...

Garpal Gumnut said:

gg

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Nice chat

Kind regards
rcw1

From JC




jog on
duc

There were simpler times. I remember back a long time ago sitting around a table with Dawn Bolton-Smith RIP and some other members of the ATAA looking at charts as she discussed prediction of tops and bottoms of stocks and indices. I had only just been introduced to charts and was advised repeatedly "to keep it simple". I was reminded of her this morning when I looked at a 5 year chart of Gold.

Counting the boxes from the initial touching of $2000 to the right until the definitive move up past $2000 gives one 7 boxes. Taking the move up from Feb 2024 gives one 5 boxes. One theory is that the length of a consolidation in price can mirror the move once the consolidation stops and a move begins giving one a target.

Thus there are 2 boxes yet to be reached in this bull move out of the earlier 2020-2024, which would give us a target of $3400 before a retracement.

Now, one could argue that this is dependent on the timescale and spacing of the x and y axes, and the boxes but this chart is not unfamiliar to me in it's form and the postulated move makes sense. As with all projections their main value is debatable. Many brokers, fund managers and youtubers make projections picked out of thin air and are worth as much. The main value I find of projections is in trading today, as it gives one a sense of where others think the market is heading, not by how much. I'll go with Dawn. Do a duckduckgo or google search on her. She was the first technical analyst employed by the ASX and in her day was a pioneer both for the ordinary investor and women in investing who did not have as much freedom of choice in careers or trading as nowadays.



gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

There were simpler times. I remember back a long time ago sitting around a table with Dawn Bolton-Smith RIP and some other members of the ATAA looking at charts as she discussed prediction of tops and bottoms of stocks and indices. I had only just been introduced to charts and was advised repeatedly "to keep it simple". I was reminded of her this morning when I looked at a 5 year chart of Gold.

Counting the boxes from the initial touching of $2000 to the right until the definitive move up past $2000 gives one 7 boxes. Taking the move up from Feb 2024 gives one 5 boxes. One theory is that the length of a consolidation in price can mirror the move once the consolidation stops and a move begins giving one a target.

Thus there are 2 boxes yet to be reached in this bull move out of the earlier 2020-2024, which would give us a target of $3400 before a retracement.

Now, one could argue that this is dependent on the timescale and spacing of the x and y axes, and the boxes but this chart is not unfamiliar to me in it's form and the postulated move makes sense. As with all projections their main value is debatable. Many brokers, fund managers and youtubers make projections picked out of thin air and are worth as much. The main value I find of projections is in trading today, as it gives one a sense of where others think the market is heading, not by how much. I'll go with Dawn. Do a duckduckgo or google search on her. She was the first technical analyst employed by the ASX and in her day was a pioneer both for the ordinary investor and women in investing who did not have as much freedom of choice in careers or trading as nowadays.

View attachment 194553

gg

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Mr GG

So the technicals are useful reference points, however the issue is that:

Gold has been re-monetised by China and Russia after being de-monetised by Nixon in August 1971. So this time is different.

Very different:

Gold was always priced in every currency, but oil was always only priced in USD. So before CNY oil, if gold began rising in CNY but not USD, that meant CNY was falling against USD making China’s oil import bill more expensive (because oil was only priced in USD) running down China’s USD reserves to import oil. If China’s USD reserves ran too low, China would have a currency crisis like that seen in the late 1990s in SE Asia.

As such, oil in USD was the key systemic lynchpin. Now, let’s look at this with oil priced in CNY per above:

If gold rises in CNY when CNY can buy oil (and other commodities), it means gold buys MORE oil in CNY than it does in USD. Once this happens, gold tonnage and oil volumes will move to China. This will continue to happen until either western gold vaults are emptied or gold prices begin to rise in USD terms to allow the USD Gold/Oil Ratio (GoR) to match the CNY GoR.

And what are we currently seeing in London with physical gold? Empty.

But as of yet, there is still little mainstream awareness that it is CNY oil and gas that is ALLOWING China to take control of the gold price and more importantly, the second derivative of China controlling the gold price remains poorly understood:

If China controls USD gold prices, China can influence USD inflation expectations over time.




If China can influence USD inflation expectations, China can influence UST rates.

If China can influence UST rates, China can weaponize the US’ record debt/GDP and deficit/GDP against the US essentially forcing US policymakers to either slash US Entitlements and Defense to pay interest or to find a new source of balance sheet to finance US deficits (QE, YCC, bank SLR exemptions for USTs), which will weaken the USD and send US inflation to new secular highs.

Now of course, Musk under Trump is on the loose trying to cut US spending. There is a problem however: cutting spending, before you restructure the debt, will cause debt/GDP to collapse, which is happening as I type:



Which is a problem.

All of this is made possible because Russia is willing to sell oil to China in CNY! Gold is re-becoming an oil currency. As it does, “oil fitting into gold” when oil is some 12-15x the size of gold markets globally should continue to drive gold higher.

A couple of technical charts, just cause they are fun:



So the technical signal for the move higher occurred in 2024. I did post this chart at the time, just find the post somewhere in January 2024 DDD.

What an entry if you were simply looking to trade this.


jog on
duc

Ahhhhhhh nice one, PoG cracked that big US$2900 mark again... boring ha ha ha ha ha ...

Kind regards
rcw1

rcw1 said:

Ahhhhhhh nice one, PoG cracked that big US$2900 mark again... boring ha ha ha ha ha ...

Kind regards
rcw1

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Indeed.

There appears to be some FOMO as well which is good. I wonder how much the Chinese cousins have accumulated on recent weakness. $3000 cannot be far away in time.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Indeed.

There appears to be some FOMO as well which is good. I wonder how much the Chinese cousins have accumulated on recent weakness. $3000 cannot be far away in time.

gg

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more important might be HOW the Chinese are accumulating , are they buying with the trade surplus , buying with matured US Treasuries ( and other bonds ) proceeds or even both , and/or directly swapping with ( non-US ) trading partners ( for other goods )

$3000 is very possible if China is quietly accumulating via multiple sources ( and not just via official exchanges ) draining the global supply of recently mined gold ( and silver )

besides the US dollar only has real strength against other currencies ( rather than against physical commodities )

a thing to watch MIGHT be increased buying of foreign gold miners , and calmly sending the dore over to China to be refined ( and stockpiled )

Good evening g o l d believers

I go to bed at peace knowing gold is steady at US $2919.20 ... with bigger and better things going to happen overnight ... perhaps.

good nite Irene

Kind regards
rcw1

Gold like everything else has dropped a bit but not as much in $AUD where it is at $AUD 4601.

I'd imagine when the reality of the destruction of capital on the NASDAQ and other American markets sink in that it will be a good week for gold. Then, one can never predict the future.






gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Gold like everything else has dropped a bit but not as much in $AUD where it is at $AUD 4601.

I'd imagine when the reality of the destruction of capital on the NASDAQ and other American markets sink in that it will be a good week for gold. Then, one can never predict the future.




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gg

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Morning Mr GG,

There will be some selling by selling what you can to offset what is fast turning into a market break.

In gold, this is a BTD moment.

jog on
duc

I have always said it was inevitable that the US would go into a recession, and Trump has assisted that with some of his policies.
In every previous instance of recessions, everything gets dumped.
The only safe haven is the USD for the Yanks, so gold will get dumped along with stocks, real estate, BTC , and the scrample for covering the plethora of exotic financial instruments will exacerbate things.
I have plenty of cash on the sidelines ready to buy things that get dumped.
The question is, which of the dumped things will recover and which are gone forever.
Thats where the money will be made.
The desire of non western countries, their citizens and their CB's to have gold and other PM's will provide some sort of floor, but the ese same players will not provide a floor until they are ready to pay the price they want.
Mick

jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

jog on
duc

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Wind Matt up and let him go.... a stream of consciousness.

All time highs and breaching of significant numbers such as $USD 3000 come when you least expect them. It is morning in America and Trump is awake. Who knows what the day will bring. I believe the last all time high was $2955 or thereabouts last month.




gg