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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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First the good news: POG breaches $1955.

Next a point of interest. Some investors are of the view that silver gives a good idea of where gold is heading, so I indexed silver against POG for February to date and got this result from a 30 minute chart:

As you can see the correlation is very strong.
All we really see is POG and silver moving in the same direction, with silver prices typically moving proportionately more.
Indexing prices carries the risk of choosing a poor starting point and thereby skewing discrepancies in subsequent movements.
I found no evidence that silver was a predictor of gold's price movements using various time periods and charting variously from minutes to hours.
 

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Gold enroute to $2000 USD ?? and that's all time high there on the left, it's been a big February for Gold that's for sure





and this is why, this 8th Feb suggestion from a Newsletter publication was so on the money, Mine Developers not being impacted by higher fuel costs etc etc, but the resource in the ground is appreciating, it all becomes how much of the price move becomes sustained.



hence I hold AAU
 
A bit of a sell-off.

Some say Russia selling gold which I believe to be highly unlikely.

More likely Turkey selling and risk of stagflation.



gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
A bit of a sell-off.

Some say Russia selling gold which I believe to be highly unlikely.

More likely Turkey selling and risk of stagflation.

View attachment 138101

gg
Click to expand...

Wohaaa. Wasn’t expecting that sell off. Profit taking? Was the vision last night a media beat up? Was Russia a large buyer last year? Perhaps attacking Ukraine was part of a pump and dump plan? An expensive one. I was expecting gold to be around $2k this am.

 
That is what attracts me to the markets.

The unpredictability.

BTC has made a comeback on high volume as Gold fell.

Gold is now rallying off $USD1880.

gg

I am just going with the flow, no predictions, no expectations.
 
The Plunge Protection to the rescue again.
At the open, the DJIA plunged to a low of 32272, down some 850 points.
it recovered during the day to finish 33 down.
Gold opened higher and was bid up to 1976 before it was sold off big time to a low of 1877 before a small rally saw it finish below 1900.
You can see why the CB's around the world apart from Russia and China do not want the gold price to be soaring.
The two odd ones have been buying gold for years, as they have both stated that their currency will be backed by gold.
Can't reward the naughty boys by allowing their currency support mechanism to rise steeply.
Mick
 
Well good opportunity for individuals to load up at prices sponsored by the fed banks
 
Chief commodity strategist Caroline Bain of Capital Economics said an escalation of the Ukraine conflict – could send gold to new records in the months ahead.

“As for gold, we now expect safe-haven demand to drive it's price higher in the coming weeks and months,” she said.

“If the Ukraine tensions rumble on, we now think that the price of gold will remain firmly over US $2,000 per ounce in the first half of this year before falling back in the second half of the year as the historical relationship with US yields starts to reassert itself.

“Any escalation in the conflict could result in the gold price moving close to US $2,500.”
 
I have been looking into volume spikes as a potential indicator of future price movements. Gold and oil experienced a massive spike at high price levels, if the volume spike theory works then gold and oil may see a pretty solid retrace. I also note that the S&P500 had a massive volume spike at the very low point of the recent price fall. My thought is it may see a good rise, will it be enough to take it out of the doldrums or is it merely a dead cat bounce?

 
Thanks @Ann .

It is always difficult to chart Gold but there appears to be a correlation between large volume on your chart and trend change following. Although this by no means immediate.

For longer term investors such as I it is a reasonable indicator of a coming change.

I plan to further accumulate Gold at any smidgen below $USD1800. I don't see a longer term change in trend to the downside with that 6 mo. consolidation you have posted.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I plan to further accumulate Gold at any smidgen below $USD1800. I don't see a longer term change in trend to the downside with that 6 mo. consolidation you have posted.
Click to expand...

I am looking at silver as it appears to have more upside than gold when I do head-on into PMs. Watch out for gold if it fails $1780, that is its historic quarterly support line from September 2012. It is in a bearish rising wedge pattern on the quarterly chart at the moment, and there is a potential for it to fall back to around $1400 if it fails $1780. Caution is warranted.

 
Cam019 said:
I would not be surprised to see XAUUSD at $1516.

Click to expand...

There’s always a chance this consolidation from the ATH could go on for some time, but short term it still looks more bullish to me with the higher lows since Oct and breaking the Nov high and critical 1850 level of the flag. Obviously this 1900 ish level is important and is hard to beat. I‘d be happy for consolidation above 1850 to gather some steam for a run clearly through 1900. ?
 
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