Gold Price - Where is it heading?

aclassic said:

cheers Z

Dripping red here.

Oh my Medusa :-(

Serious? 1200 ?

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Yes some longer term holdings are not looking so good! This too shall pass

Lots of cheap and good gold stocks around today. My finger is on the trigger and getting itchier, close, so close, but not quite yet is my feeling.

CanOz said:

I'm still amazed at the DX, it's been quiet, balanced for a few days....despite all the action in commodities.

CanOz

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That's what they call "The paper is mightier than Gold.."...errr what's that again?

I have a gut feeling that the Vampire Squid and the likes, are it again. knowing that gold is at its multi-month support level, every man and his dog are long gold. The biggest I think is GLD etf. Just waiting for the right news
big enough for "reason" to trigger the sell off.

Decent reversal in gold and gold equities today. Imo we'll see some good follow through morrow

MR Z HAS SPOKEN

hush now, are there any more words of wisdom?

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Whoa... lets see where we close. Lunch time can be fueled by more than a little white collar madness. Interesting that it has been on the bid though.

aclassic said:

MR Z HAS SPOKEN

hush now, are there any more words of wisdom?

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Well? What do you think?

Mr Z said:

Well? What do you think?

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I'm not game to say.

Every time I think nowadays, I end up losing money!

Just picked this up...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...ages_Develop_As_Retail_Demand_Skyrockets.html

Haynes is near the guy I talk to and it is the heart of hard money country in AZ. It is consistent with what I got told this AM.

aclassic said:

I'm not game to say.

Every time I think nowadays, I end up losing money!

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Lose your opinion or lose your money eh?

She is a bloody hard mistress!

Mr Z said:

I guess it depends if you are a trader or investor, no? The former, no it doesn't matter, the response should be to price alone and automatic.... investors however really do need to understand why... no? Or have I got the wrong end of your stick?

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My point is they are linked. Every two bob punter and his dog has been long gold. Classic set up seen over and over -
crowded trade = many losers. The big moves comes from the surprises and always seems to disappoints the majority.

It doesn't matter if you "trade" for this month or this decade. The trade stinks.

Trembling Hand said:

Every two bob punter and his dog has been long gold.

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and you know this how?

COT data doesn't support that idea.

The small specs are currently about as short gold as they have ever been in the last 5 years!

The unwashed masses look to be on the short side here and now.

Mr Z said:

Lose your opinion or lose your money eh?

She is a bloody hard mistress!

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Just when I thought I might have had a slight handle on things,

I find myself obviously clueless.

aclassic said:

Just when I thought I might have had a slight handle on things,

I find myself obviously clueless.

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It is a game, I don't take it that seriously, the more I treat it like Nintendo with dollars the better I trade. Trying to get too far into the fundamentals can be such a complete mind f* that you end up paralyzed and unable to trade. In software development they used to call it analysis paralysis, at some point you just have to cut code.

Mmmmmm.....what happens if Comex runs out of deliverable - is that even possible? Option 1 = Ask JPM to go short, ask GS to put out a sell recom....the rest will be history?

I did find out the truth though -

So the collapse in gold is not about gold, but about vindication for a large corpus of belief and economic research, which has largely panned out. It’s great that our economic elites know what they’re talking about, and have the tools at their disposal to address crises without creating some new catastrophe - JOE WEISENTHAL (He's dead serious!)

Well, the inflationistas/goldbugs are really, really annoying ”” all this air of having the secret wisdom when they actually haven’t a clue. And they have been a real destructive factor in policy debate, standing in the way of effective policy by raising fears of Weimar and Zimbabwe. So seeing the one thing they got right ”” betting on higher gold prices ”” turn sour is cause for a bit of celebration - Paul Krugman (sorry, that should be Nobel Prize Winning Economist)

Closer to the truth?

London bullion dealer Sharps Pixley thinks that the crash was largely initiated by a single entity:
The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday 12th April to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level which confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders minds it stood as a formidable support level… the line in the sand.
Two hours later the initial selling, rumoured to have been routed through Merrill Lynch’s floor team, by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market – it had the hallmarks of a concerted ‘short sale’, which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of ‘shock & awe’ – would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell as their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called ‘stopped-out’ in market parlance – probably hidden the unimpeachable (?) $1540 level.
The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonne of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production – too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold’s non performance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening US economic data.
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By forcing the market lower the Fund sought to prompt a cascade or avalanche of additional selling, proving the lie \; predictably some newswires were premature in announcing the death of the gold bull run doing, in effect, the dirty work of the shorters in driving the market lower still.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/why-is-gold-crashing.html

U.S. regulators plan to fault JPMorgan Chase & Co., which served as Bernie Madoff's main bank for two decades, for failing to conduct adequate due diligence and report suspicious activity, Reuters reported Monday on its website citing a person familiar with the matter.

My understanding is that the Comex can force cash settlement if a delivery cannot be made, it is in the rules. Given that the Comex is a 99% cash market, basically a risk management market, I don't see a default happening there ever. The LBMA is where the real metal moves in quantity and therefore where the real risk lay.

Trembling Hand said:

My point is they are linked. Every two bob punter and his dog has been long gold. Classic set up seen over and over -
crowded trade = many losers. The big moves comes from the surprises and always seems to disappoints the majority.

It doesn't matter if you "trade" for this month or this decade. The trade stinks.

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Yes but you have been against 'the trade' all the way up, judging from your posturings here?? Similar story for everyone else who stood by the sidelines and watched the stealth gold bull run for the last 13 years. It's 13 years of weak hands and trendies getting thrown off now. There's also a lot of goldenfroid going on too I think?

Mr Z said:

and you know this how?

COT data doesn't support that idea.

The small specs are currently about as short gold as they have ever been in the last 5 years!

The unwashed masses look to be on the short side here and now.

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You are kidding surely? How big is the GLD ETF holding? How many specy Gold stocks are being ridden? Thats the game little guys play. Most haven't got a Futs account. Even more so everyone at the BBQ has "an interest" in gold. Everyone knows the story and waiting for gold to go through $2000 on its way to $10,000.

Just look at this place, ASF. More are long/bullish gold than not by probably a factor of 2:1..... at least! Think about that with the hypotheses that most here will lose at this game......

Just saying.

Uncle Festivus said:

Yes but you have been against 'the trade' all the way up, judging from your posturings here?? Similar story for everyone else who stood by the sidelines and watched the stealth gold bull run for the last 13 years. It's 13 years of weak hands and trendies getting thrown off now. There's also a lot of goldenfroid going on too I think?

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I was sucked in too back in 2002. Playing Bolinsi and NEM and the lot. But jumped off in 2004-5 when it became apparent that I was in the company of mad men.

No to be honest I have been against the trade for the last probably 4 years. But only as an Idea. I just don't think for me its a good trade. Not while the AUD is robbing gains over the last few years and because I simply don't give a toss what any instrument does come the close of Hong Kong at 6:15 today.... and every day. The only money I think I've lost on it was a long at the end of last year..

COT report with the first week of April, then with this past weeks....

Trembling Hand said:

You are kidding surely? How big is the GLD ETF holding? How many specy Gold stocks are being ridden? Thats the game little guys play. Most haven't got a Futs account. Even more so everyone at the BBQ has "an interest" in gold. Everyone knows the story and waiting for gold to go through $2000 on its way to $10,000.

Just look at this place, ASF. More are long/bullish gold than not by probably a factor of 2:1..... at least! Think about that with the hypotheses that most here will lose at this game......

Just saying.

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Why would I kid? So you postulate that the small futures trades are a sentiment anomaly? Why? They are still small traders. GLD is 50% institutional holdings, it looks like a good deal to the movement has come from that side of the divide, especially when you consider the recent noise made about reduction in ETF holdings.

2:1, how on earth do you figure that? 2:1 of people that bother to look at a gold thread? Come now, most here don't care that this thread exists! You must be talking a personal bias there!

Gold stocks? What? The same gold stocks that for two years have been trading lower and are so far below a reasonable valuation, given golds price, that its more than a little historic? That is a crowded trade? If it was over valuation I could perhaps agree but the gold stock price to gold price ratio is now below 2008 lows!!!! How is that little guys in a crowded trade? Cripes, I'd say that it is close to wrung dry!

Honestly most people I come into contact with are ignorant of gold or anty, it is just not on most peoples radar by a long shot.