Gold Price - Where is it heading?

wavepicker · 15 December 2006

coyotte said:
POG -- imho is as usual a real delima !

Two respected EW analysis's on this forum have opposing views
One DN for 2 years
the other UP
this is the problem i have with EW even the best disagree !

Then we Steve Saville on F/A & t/a ---- UP--- BUT LIMITED

On balance UP between now and mid Jan to a max of $us 750
Then a high probability of a long term decline (2yrs)

But the catch 22 --- if POG is up , then the $au should be UP -- hence a declining POG in $au.

just my thoughts atm

cheers

Coyotte, don't know where you got the "the best" bit from.

There will varying opinions between practioners in all forms Technical Analysis and not just EW. EW is just one tool I us to help me, however I also use other forms of Cyclic Analysis which are core to my method.

You have to remember that there are many combinations possible in EW Analysis. Any person can have up to 5-6 wavecounts(with a preferred count heading them until it's invalidated by an alternate wavecount.) What you strive to acheive with EW is to form multiple wavecounts each pointing to the same conclusion or direction of trend but at varying degrees. True, EW analysis can be subjective amongst paractioners, and in itself at times can be difficult to apply if market patterns are not easy to identify. Therefore the Cyclic models I contruct, help me quantify and wave counts and try to reduce if not eliminate alternates in order to stack the cards in my favour for high probability trades.

What does your methodology say about POG ATM??? I would be interested in the opinions of yourself and those of others for Gold in say the next year??

Rather than look at the Gold chart, we might get more clues by looking at the US Dollar Index or how we expect the USD to perform against a basket of currencies such the JPY, GBP , CHF, and EUR. Ultimately it is the movement of US Dollar that will decide the fortunes of Gold, and not so much industrial demand and supply. I must say I am bullish next year the USD (although temporarily). I beleive at the moment "It's all the same Market" For example a low in the USD may coincide with a peak in the XAO which is in the process fo forming as we speak. This will be bearish for various other commodity markets

Cheers

Sean K · 16 December 2006

POG broken down through $620 in the last hours of NY, down $11 ish for the night. Ouch. My pile of goldies will be bleeding Monday.

Reason was good economic news out of US including benign inflation data.

Wonder how much more good news there is to come.

I have read and seen analysts reports (US media) saying they are becoming a little concerned about the bullishness of the market and to be prepared for short term retraction on any bad news. The US market seems to have run quite hard the past few months. If we retain our own Santa Rally, then we might be looking at a retraction in early 2007.

Specific to gold, $US has rebounded considerably resulting in POGs recent decline. This on top of benign geopolitics has pushed the price down. At the same time POI has increased slightly.....

I think if some bad US data comes out at the same time as some geopolitical uncertanty/incidents, linked with POI being held high by OPEC or increasing due to supply disruption, POG will continue it's rise. The planets just to align which I believe is inevitable.

greggy · 16 December 2006

kennas said:
POG broken down through $620 in the last hours of NY, down $11 ish for the night. Ouch. My pile of goldies will be bleeding Monday.

Reason was good economic news out of US including benign inflation data.

Wonder how much more good news there is to come.

I have read and seen analysts reports (US media) saying they are becoming a little concerned about the bullishness of the market and to be prepared for short term retraction on any bad news. The US market seems to have run quite hard the past few months. If we retain our own Santa Rally, then we might be looking at a retraction in early 2007.

Specific to gold, $US has rebounded considerably resulting in POGs recent decline. This on top of benign geopolitics has pushed the price down. At the same time POI has increased slightly.....

I think if some bad US data comes out at the same time as some geopolitical uncertanty/incidents, linked with POI being held high by OPEC or increasing due to supply disruption, POG will continue it's rise. The planets just to align which I believe is inevitable.

Hopefully, its only a very short term correction. I'm still bullish on gold.

coyotte · 16 December 2006

HUI & XAU along with LIHR did not drop all that much

LIHR made a strong comeback closing near the high (below open) on massive volume --- could be a buying oppurtunity come monday

Cheers

ducati916 · 18 December 2006

Originally Posted by rederob

Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.
But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?

Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -

And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:

In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself. On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”).

Where are we, gee, December 18 odd, fast running out of time now, better get ready to concede utter defeat.

Nick Radge · 18 December 2006

Still tracing out a corrective move. I can only get bearish again if the early Oct lows are broken. The weekly chart shows a clear 3-wave decline from the May high to the Oct lows, although the alternative is a larger triangle forming with 5 internal waves. Either way, it's still only bullish until the Octover lows are breached.

Dr Doom · 27 December 2006

My crystal ball is telling me that the next 2 weeks of economics announcements will be crunch time for the US economy, the most important being the following -

New-home sales Nov. 12/27

Consumer confidence Dec. 12/28

Existing-home sales Nov. 12/28

If, as I expect, the numbers continue to be negative, the US Fed will be facing the prospect of reducing interest rates, possibly at a rate to prevent a recession. The $US should resume it's 'correction' at a 'measured pace', with gold the major benefactor.
As there is always the possibility of geo-political factors influencing the POG, and in all probability it is unlikely that the world will be suddenly awash with peace & stability, I cannot see the POG reducing substantially through 2007.
It should be influenced more directly as a currency play as more countries seek to race their currencies to the bottom in an attempt to remain internationally competitive and to reduce exposure to the $US.

It's all very orderly at the moment due in the most part to those Cayman Is. currency traders absorbing all those US dollars. Maybe these firms are the federal reserve itself, buying itself??????.

When the POG seems like getting above their comfort zone, noises from the World bank threatening to sell off gold to fund poor countries start to do the rounds. What they can do and will do is cancel the debt of these countries, vaporising the $US dollars that were created out of thin air in the first place.

2007 setting the next stage of the gold bull for some spectacular gains.

brerwallabi · 27 December 2006

Dr Doom said:
It's all very orderly at the moment due in the most part to those Cayman Is. currency traders absorbing all those US dollars. Maybe these firms are the federal reserve itself, buying itself??????.

And I thought they were all Central Banks.

Kauri · 30 December 2006

And now possibly in a W3 of a W3 of a W(3) which if it pans out will go to around 700.

greggy · 30 December 2006

Kauri said:
And now possibly in a W3 of a W3 of a W(3) which if it pans out will go to around 700.

Nice chart there. I think gold is still in a bullish phase and next year will be another good year for gold.
DYOR

ducati916 · 4 January 2007

Originally Posted by rederob
Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.
But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?

Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -

And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:

In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself. On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”).

"I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it smells of..............victory

jog on
d998

wayneL · 6 January 2007

Interesting action as the the Comex pit opens

A $1,200 USD per contract dump in 20 minutes. Bulls are living in interesting times.

ducati916 · 6 January 2007

Unemployment data just out, strong wage growth.
Inflationary.
Increased Fed Funds rate?
Gold sells off.

jog on
d998

Kauri · 6 January 2007

Jobs data really caught the market by surprise...
Last 3 days spot gold... pretty much the inverse of the $US.

ducati916 · 6 January 2007

Gold not looking super bullish at the moment;

moses · 6 January 2007

ducati916 said:
Gold not looking super bullish at the moment;

isn't this only because the US did not lower interest rates recently, making its dollar more attractive/valuable than expected?

ducati916 · 6 January 2007

moses said:
isn't this only because the US did not lower interest rates recently, making its dollar more attractive/valuable than expected?

But this is the question isn't it;
Is Gold linked to inflation, or a proxy for inflation?

If you believe that it is, then you need to consider all the variables that impact or cause inflation.

*Oil
*Wages/Employment
*Productivity & Capacity Utilization
*CPI
*PPI
*Government Fiscal policy [US]
*Government Monetary policy [US]
*Foreign Fiscal policy
*Foregin Monetary policy

Additional economic factors to Gold analysis;

*Industrial demand
*Retail demand
*Central Bank policy
*Increased/Decreased mine production

And given a bit of time, you could add at least another ten variables to that list. Then you'll have the techie crowd that fantasise that all the information is contained in the price.

Well actually it is.
But let's see them actually extract that information and provide an analysis that makes them consistently correct in their positions, and therefore profitable.

If you can't trade stocks profitably, why would you take on all of this?

jog on
d998

moses · 6 January 2007

But 5 days isn't exactly a trend is it?

Granted, 5 months has a similar picture...so are you arguing that gold has broken with inflation, that the POG means less than it used to? Or that the world's economy will soon be a stagnant damp squib in the bear pit?

giss · 6 January 2007

The european reserve bank equivalent is increasing its gold reserves. This might lead to an increase in the gold price. Anyone else read about that in SMH/financial review recently?

dubiousinfo · 6 January 2007

Looking at a 3 month chart for gold, it seems to show a head & shoulders with the latest drop taking it through the neckline with $580 as a target.

Any thoughts?

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