Gold Price - Where is it heading?

nukz · 19 September 2010

I'm certain gold is a bubble, its being sold in vending machines in Dubai and these gold sellers have just popped up all over the place and we are all being told to move into gold. This is basiclly the story of a bubble, but who knows how long it will last.

In the U.S you don't want to move into stocks yet, realestate has still not bottomed out yet so that leaves that idea, you have government and corporate bonds.... please...

So you have physical commodities I'm not sure where else you can park your investment unless we are talking just cash.

I am invested in gold and silver myself(physical not ETF) but when i see these story's appearing in mainstream media to get into gold I'm starting to think it may be time to consider positions...

Mind you our real estate bubble has still not yet burst yet.. that is going to be one big one when it crashes.

So_Cynical · 19 September 2010

nukz said:
I'm certain gold is a bubble, its being sold in vending machines in Dubai and these gold sellers have just popped up all over the place and we are all being told to move into gold. This is basiclly the story of a bubble, but who knows how long it will last.

I am invested in gold and silver myself(physical not ETF) but when i see these story's appearing in mainstream media to get into gold I'm starting to think it may be time to consider positions...

Its a ETF bubble as that's where all the additional demand is coming from, a true speculation bubble....timing the exit will be all important.

explod said:
However, I do think down the track that panic is going to be a problem because few understand the real danger that the US Federal Reserve is bringing upon us. Herd sentiment will be the problem and gold as they are seeeing it will overshoot above current expectations IMHO.

We really haven't seen a spectacular over shoot yet...not even close IMO.

robusta · 19 September 2010

Mr Z said:
Pascoe isn't even a starter when it comes to gold, he just does not get it at all. To equate gold going up with the end of capitalism is as simplistically naive as it gets. The guy, like some many of his colleagues, has no idea about money, what it is, how and why it works. They get it at a high level but their foundational understanding of money is zip.

10 years Mr Pascoe, compounding at 17%... you find another investment that has done that! :

Ok I have no idea on gold as well but show me a anothe 10 years at 17% and I will be really impressed.

explod · 19 September 2010

So_Cynical said:
We really haven't seen a spectacular over shoot yet...not even close IMO.

Was not referring to the near term. However, on the current growing sentiment, when real gold fever hits it will be interesting.

Very few are really into gold yet. Since 2002 it has gone up 18% compounded that is 324% and silver in the same period 364%.

The general investment community is beginning to take notice as it appears more now in the daily press. When they begin to get on board that will be one thijng but when every man and his dog begins to scrable for it that will be quite another matter.

It is well worth reading up on the history of gold as money, if you are thinking of investing in it then that sort of study and understaning in my view is essential. Anyone contemplating gold for investment ought to read (scan) thier way through this entire thread. Many of the questions raised in the last day or so are well answered within.

The statistics above are courtesy "The Privateer" newsletter. I have no association with it but my subscription to it was one of the best financial decisions I have ever made. Worth downloading a free introductory copy if you want the current and real financial picture on currencies and gold.

nukz · 19 September 2010

I'm not sure about this but i heard Soros owns something like 80% of all the gold contracts out there. Also as far as physical gold goes i thought the Rothschild's almost owned all of it and have been controlling the price for century's.

explod · 20 September 2010

The following article by Jim Rogers via the Kitco web page gives a good and straight forward summation on where gold is heading and why. In particular the paper money being printed.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html

So_Cynical · 20 September 2010

explod said:
The following article by Jim Rogers via the Kitco web page gives a good and straight forward summation on where gold is heading and why. In particular the paper money being printed.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html

Rogers is hardly a source to be taken seriously...he's a 1000g/t Gold bug.

explod · 20 September 2010

So_Cynical said:
Rogers is hardly a source to be taken seriously...he's a 1000g/t Gold bug.

So am I, as are most sensible investors, by having this type of insurance in the portfolio.

Rather than attack the man on what you percieve to be his reputation, how about disecting the faults within the article itself.

Gold has been the best passive investment of this new century and for some reason a number of people dont' like it, why ?

So_Cynical · 20 September 2010

explod said:
So am I, as are most sensible investors, by having this type of insurance in the portfolio.

Oh come on Expold...the only gold exposure most sensible and non sensible investors have is BHP.

explod said:
Rather than attack the man on what you percieve to be his reputation, how about disecting the faults within the article itself.

Spoken like a true bug

explod said:
Gold has been the best passive investment of this new century and for some reason a number of people dont' like it, why ?

I'm not one of those people..i jumped on the gold train at about $650 and have enjoyed the ride (the GFC and deleveraging turned out to be the best bit ) however im not a bug, im an investor that saw an opportunity and have followed that for over 3 years....i know this runaway gold train will eventually be derailed, this will not be a calculated, orderly pull into the station when its all over...it will be a full on derailment.

We are in the early to mid stages of a ETF gold bubble...all the additional demand is coming from ETF investors and speculators, when they decide to start unwinding there positions is gona be ugly...and i want to be in cash when that happens, ready to buy back in at the bottom....unfortunately for the bugs they wont be.

explod · 21 September 2010

I'm not one of those people..i jumped on the gold train at about $650 and have enjoyed the ride (the GFC and deleveraging turned out to be the best bit ) however im not a bug, im an investor that saw an opportunity and have followed that for over 3 years....i know this runaway gold train will eventually be derailed, this will not be a calculated, orderly pull into the station when its all over...it will be a full on derailment.

Absolutely agree and have done almost exactly the same thing.

So you must be a bug too s.c. Just thought I'd give you a little extra one there champ.

We are in the early to mid stages of a ETF gold bubble...all the additional demand is coming from ETF investors and speculators, when they decide to start unwinding there positions is gona be ugly...and i want to be in cash when that happens, ready to buy back in at the bottom....unfortunately for the bugs they wont be.

And dont' you think collectively (those that have been following it) will know when that time comes.

Cooommmmorrrn there So Cynical, what are you really on about ?

Logique · 21 September 2010

I read that article by Jim Rogers. I had been nervous that it looked overdone for the near term.

Rogers (although a gold bug) thinks any bubbly-ness is years away, so I've calmed down a bit.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html
...During gold’s hysterical phase, which Rogers said could take place in 5 to 7 years; everyone will be buying the yellow metal, he said...

So_Cynical · 21 September 2010

Logique said:
I read that article by Jim Rogers. I had been nervous that it looked overdone for the near term.

Rogers (although a gold bug) thinks any bubbly-ness is years away, so I've calmed down a bit.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DC.html
...During gold’s hysterical phase, which Rogers said could take place in 5 to 7 years; everyone will be buying the yellow metal, he said...

Ok so lets say the bubblyness is 6 years away...in the last 6 years gold's gone from $400 to $1250 a 205% increase (approx) so if the % uptrend of the last 6 years is to continue for another 6 years that would give us a gold price of around $3800.

Not totally out of the question except that the gold/oil ratio would have oil at over $250 a barrel and the assorted Gold ETF's holding prob 50% of all the above ground gold....as it is now the Gold ETF's are the 5th or 6th biggest holder of physical....the bubble will burst long before they get to #1 IMO anyway.

explod · 21 September 2010

So_Cynical said:
Ok so lets say the bubblyness is 6 years away...in the last 6 years gold's gone from $400 to $1250 a 205% increase (approx) so if the % uptrend of the last 6 years is to continue for another 6 years that would give us a gold price of around $3800.

Not totally out of the question except that the gold/oil ratio would have oil at over $250 a barrel and the assorted Gold ETF's holding prob 50% of all the above ground gold....as it is now the Gold ETF's are the 5th or 6th biggest holder of physical....the bubble will burst long before they get to #1 IMO anyway.

It is the sheer demand that will send it up. Many do not factor in the point that only .05% of investors are into gold at all. If you were to put this alongside say BHP, which on a world scale within all markets, though small, would still be greater than that number.

So if interest was to go up by 20 times it would still be only 1%. With gold now getting onto the world radar screen, because most other passive investments are doing little more than going sideways, then you may have a very interesting situation.

Worth a few thoughts. Interesting times.

explod · 22 September 2010

Further to our discussion yesterday, the growing demand by investors to hoard physical gold is overwhelming the shorts.

Via the GATA web site: http://www.gata.org/node/9044

Whiskers · 24 September 2010

The POG currently about $US1,293.

If it closes closer to 1,280 than 1,300 in the US tonight, I'm tipping the top is in again for some time.

Anyone game to bet against me?

Edwood · 24 September 2010

nope

(c/- Cliff D by the way)

Ageo · 24 September 2010

Whiskers said:
The POG currently about $US1,293.

If it closes closer to 1,280 than 1,300 in the US tonight, I'm tipping the top is in again for some time.

Anyone game to bet against me?

Doesnt make a difference if this AUD keeps climbing.......

explod · 24 September 2010

Whiskers said:
The POG currently about $US1,293.

If it closes closer to 1,280 than 1,300 in the US tonight, I'm tipping the top is in again for some time.

Anyone game to bet against me?

Not a betting man, just trend following. This is a strong trend and reckon only a very brave man would stand in the way of it.

I do think a pull back tonight, now that they have the (world) audience watching, but will continue up in the weeks ahead.

Joules MM1 · 25 September 2010

...... those who dont trade must be columnists

boardering on humour

first the hindenburg omen and now this.....

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-springsteen-omen-2010-9

:headshake

Whiskers · 5 October 2010

explod said:
Not a betting man, just trend following. This is a strong trend and reckon only a very brave man would stand in the way of it.

I do think a pull back tonight, now that they have the (world) audience watching, but will continue up in the weeks ahead.

Yeah, too strong for my liking Explod, mostly just on the back of the low USD exchange rate.

I'm thinking... (actually, I had a vision while that damn Benny Hinn program and his 'Faith Healing' was going on in the background. I should have changed channels when the games finished!) and did a detail EW count of this since I'm all in cash as of last week and need the (share) market to correct a bit to get back into it at good prices.

If my analysis is correct... I pray, may the lord make my analysis correct : ... the POG will whiplash back towards 1,000 as wave 'c' pans out in the next few weeks or so.

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