Gold Price - Where is it heading?

michael_selway · 12 October 2008

amory said:
Hmm Time will tell, says Michael. then proceeds - quote

<< ....This should, according to economics 101 and with all things being otherwise equal, push the price of gold significantly higher. Its interesting to note that what happened to the price of lead (Pb), the heavy metal, when it took only a 3% reduction of supply in the form of a mine closing in 2007. The price of lead (Pb) rose more than 100% (from $.80/lb to around $1.80/lb). Its a natural to conclude that the price of gold, based on this larger change in demand / supply dynamics, will react even more substantially. We'll see. Only God knows what is going to happen in the future, especially with the crazy things happening now. >>

but all these arguments are not new. we all know or should know by now, having been bombarded by JimSinclair & other "experts" reasoning for quite a number of years, that the POG should be somewhere in the upper atmospheric regions ... trouble is it isn't & as long as it can be manipulated by one or another, it won't be! so much so that every now & again, it sinks right back into the "just another commodity" classification. but as long as some peasant in Bangladesh sews a small goldbar into his garment before sneaking across the border into India, that too is a misrepresentation.

that is the facts ... as against idle hand-wringing should be & would be speculation. that is where I am trying to supply the simple answer & what do I get in return? shrugged off at best, abused and ridiculed more often than not.

i) massive inflation ... wait for it. ii) a nice genuine collapse of the USDollar, such as they've been predicting since adam was a little boy ... it will happen when it does & iii) then Gold will take off into the stratosphere & not a day sooner ... serendipity!

<< Only God knows ...>> well now that makes two of us.

Hm Interesting

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold90808/gold90808_controller.swf

thx

MS

amory · 12 October 2008

I looked that up Michael. it is very clearly presented ....

bankit · 13 October 2008

michael_selway said:
http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/200...al-banks-not-rolling-forward-gold-leases.html

Hi Michael,

Thanks for sharing that link with us

The way I see it as it stands (today) there are 3 very positive clues as to thinking that Gold is due for a good solid move upwards.

In order of happening:

1. The initial buying as investors start their move into the safety of Gold. This is happening now.

2. Ceasing of leasing Gold which will put the pressure on the physical market.

3. Strong buying from investors as inflation starts to raise its ugly head around the world and the USD collapses.

I see all of this occurring over the longer time frame of 12 to 24 months.

Bankit

Uncle Festivus · 13 October 2008

We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers

Markets do not trust the governments' plans to keep struggling banks alive and investors will only calm down when the companies with bad assets are allowed to go bankrupt, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Friday."The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.

"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned.
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27097823

chops_a_must · 13 October 2008

The problem is UF, we are experiencing a massive deflation.

I think it may be a while before we get some big action, but I think it will come. Longer term positions are the way to go IMO. I'll be looking at cheap long dated calls.

kransky · 13 October 2008

chops_a_must said:
The problem is UF, we are experiencing a massive deflation.

UF?

Uncle Festivus · 13 October 2008

chops_a_must said:
The problem is UF, we are experiencing a massive deflation.

I think it may be a while before we get some big action, but I think it will come. Longer term positions are the way to go IMO. I'll be looking at cheap long dated calls.

Asset deflation yes but if they are successful at unclogging the sewer then we have a lot of liquidity looking for a yield somewhere equals monetary inflation equals stock surge?? Super stagflation while in recession?? Crazy stuff. Or it could just collapse in a screaming heap and go back to a global gold standard again?

Transition between seasons brings unsettled weather, but the season will arrive in the end? Kondratieff winter?

The December calls are telling us something?

kransky said:
UF?

That would be me

chops_a_must · 13 October 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
Asset deflation yes but if they are successful at unclogging the sewer then we have a lot of liquidity looking for a yield somewhere equals monetary inflation equals stock surge?? Super stagflation while in recession?? Crazy stuff. Or it could just collapse in a screaming heap and go back to a global gold standard again?

Transition between seasons brings unsettled weather, but the season will arrive in the end? Kondratieff winter?

The December calls are telling us something?

Agreed.

But it's picking the tipping point that is hard... Not sure what happened to gold sales in Japan after 1990, that might give an indication.

The options were pretty flat Friday from what I could see UF.

If we rally here in equities, I think gold will be out of favour for the next little while, but it just provides a better opportunity to position for the next major move. I don't expect an outright tank though, and may add to positions in gold stocks.

kransky · 13 October 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
That would be me

Uncle Festivus · 14 October 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
........monetary inflation equals stock surge??

Speak of the devil

All must be good again, our central bank saviours have unlimited money now.

Does that mean we can throw away the text books, not bother with that university degree in economics, because the solution is simply to create unlimited money?

And Ben Bernanke said it won't be inflationary

In the greatest scramble for $USD's in history the best the US DX can do is about 83, off about 2% tonight to 81.5. When all have supped at the monetary trough of liquidity largesse the final nail in the greedy capitalism coffin will be hammered in? Transition time.

Gold bouncing around $830 support again, biding it's time?

Uncle Festivus · 14 October 2008

......is this a big picture or what????

chops_a_must · 14 October 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
Does that mean we can throw away the text books, not bother with that university degree in economics,

I'd say you should throw away the text books, and not bother about that economics degree, regardless UF.

Whiskers · 15 October 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
Gold bouncing around $830 support again, biding it's time?

Yes, I think it's getting close to lifting off.

I think it looks like it has to go sub 819 again, maybe as low as 803/4 first... then 1,000 should be challenged pretty quickly.

refined silver · 15 October 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
In the greatest scramble for $USD's in history the best the US DX can do is about 83, off about 2% tonight to 81.5.

I think the $2trillion+ in currency swaps that the US has arranged with other Central Banks may be a factor in the current USD strength (depending on the mechanics of how it's been implemented).

This is NOT long term strength!

skyQuake · 15 October 2008

Nice to see it decoupling from silver. Up 0.3% compared to silver tanking...
Think we're gonna see some sort of proper break soon.

BentRod · 16 October 2008

skyQuake said:
Think we're gonna see some sort of proper break soon.

I tend to agree.
Sure is hard to trade ATM though...even intraday.

chops_a_must · 16 October 2008

The timing was right for me to go long again...

BentRod · 16 October 2008

chops_a_must said:
The timing was right for me to go long again...

Price?

Stop?

chops_a_must · 16 October 2008

BentRod said:
Price?

Stop?

On a call.

Looking for the all time high to be nudged with this, this time, within a few weeks.

Kauri · 16 October 2008

Massive selling of European equities past 24-hrs, German sales alone exceeding US sales - total amount double US equity liquidation. The Dow down 8%....sorry Uncle Ben, forget "R".. it is all about pricing in a "D".... I guess it is going somewheres considered a safe haven??? as opposed to a safe haven't..

Cheers
...........Kauri

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