Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
MARKETWAVES said:
Wave picker
I just started reading this article that you just posted by Mr. Hamilton.
This guy in the first or second paragraph is complaining about a 5% pull back in Gold recently. That it hurt his investments .
Whats that tell you about his market timing?
The time to buy gold was in 2005 when there was a strong base built into Gold ...
I pointed out this base very clearly right here in this forum.
Heres what it looked like .............
I think that he is a good writer but doesn't understand the importance of buying dips, buying on pullback which is always my message.
Look here
Why would someone subscribe to that service of his unless you were new to trading and just didn't know any better.
Trading is about buying low and selling high ......
How do you know is Low ..... (look for sound bases to form) in the chart pattern formation of the given market.
What's a base ?
Elliott waves.... beginning of a 5th wave is one of them
- Double Bottom Formations. Triple Bottom Formations. The list goes on.
Look here at Gold last year - Aug-2005
How could so many traders miss this one?
Simple
They are not looking for bases to form within in a chart ....
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If this Mr. Hamilton had read my post showing this base last yr and acted on it....
There would be no need to be complaining about a 5% pullback in Gold this past week.
Hi marketwaves, you are right in what you say, and that was an excellent call you made last year, well done.
As far as Adam Hamilton goes, I personally am not one of his customers, I just saw that article in passing. I think he caters more for long term investors and he himself sounds like he is long term orientated. Nevertheless he does put forward a very constructive analysis into the 3 stages of a bullmarket, which I think anyone can find interesting and learn from. It's good to be open minded, people like him have been around this business for quite a while. Although they are not market timers( which I must say- can be a very difficult business), they still may have a proven track record over the long term.
Interesting about gold. I went long in gold way back in April of 2001($256), and only just liquidated a month ago.
In September of 1999, gold had a very fast thrust up from nothing(250-340). This was a significant move and happened in the space of 2 months. At the time I did not append an elliott wave label to this upward move, thinking that it was just another bear move. What happened after that was gift, the subsequent move down took 1.5 yrs( 9 times as long) to move back to make a double bottom. This was a real struggle down!!! It was real choppy, overlapping decline. Recognotion of this sort of move really seperates novices from the experienced. The first thing an elliott wave practioner has to master is the difference between an impulse and a correction. If this cannot been done succesfully, then applying elliott is difficult. Now that was a correction if I ever saw one!!!
I labelled this a wave 2 for several reasons:-
-The first was as per I explained above
-The second was sentiment. Believe it or not, the pessimism at the bottom of this wave to was far greater even than the start of wave 1!!!! I remember the financial press really bashing gold back then saying that it was a financial relic with no commercial future. This was the dot. com era and economists were saying "this time it's different" It just went on and on. The same sort of pessimism was evident in the US Dollar in Dec 2004 before it started a rally.
- Most if not all oscillators were showing a bullish divergence (see monthly chart below)
Now it was very hard to trade wave 1 in this instance, especially if you were long term focused. it is very difficult also to trade a wave 2. All that is needed from us as traders is to observe were wave 2 finishes!! That is it. The buy signal for this trade came in at the bottom of wave 2. (Richkid- study those notes)
May the wave guide your trade to all!!