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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati
Something to ponder:
How long does it take to increase gold output to meet demand?
For the past 5 years higher prices have done very little to add to mine output and South Africa, the global leader, remains on trend of significant decline.
In 2005 gold consumption was around 3300 tonnes while mine output was only about 2500 tonnes: Both these numbers are expected to increase around 1.5% next year, and as the denominator for consumption is higher than for output, the tonnage of consumption will continue to outstrip supply going forward.
At this point in time there is no data suggesting mine supply will meet (fabrication) demand at any point in the foreseeable future.
By the way, most recent reliable data for gold costs had about 15% of miners producing gold at a cash cost below the average price of gold sold (full production costs are much higher again). In that year Sons of Gwalia, one of Australia's largest gold producers went belly up for that very reason.
So go to your "point#1" and extrapolate what the price of gold might be in 10 years time (or less) in the highly improbable event that supply and demand are in equilibrium at that time.
Your "Point#2" is an extension of point#1, so until we achieve "equilibrium" the likelihood of demand side pressures on gold will continue to move gold prices higher.
Not surprisingly, the shortfall in gold supply is coming from above ground supplies. The quantities are vast and could plunge gold prices - and therefore producers - into economic ruin were reasonable quantities to be sold off.
However, Western Central Bank gold sales are currently being snaffled by Asian and Latin American Central Banks.
So we have a position where consumer demand is unmet from mine output, and Central Bank sales are being absorbed within the global framework.
All of this is occurring during a period of continually rising prices.
My speculative fundamental analysis suggests a conservative gold price of $700 this year based on the quantifiable intangibles that suggest it's a reasonably based intrinsic value.
Why do namby pamby ducati types refuse to put a figure on gold going forward, preferring to obfuscate with economic theory which, curiously, appear to be difficult to calculate for a gold a utility value?
C'mon lad, get with the program here.
Put something on the table!
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

Something to ponder:
How long does it take to increase gold output to meet demand?
Click to expand...

Read the financial statements of the gold miners and calculate the time period, less current inventories. Very straightforward.

For the past 5 years higher prices have done very little to add to mine output and South Africa, the global leader, remains on trend of significant decline.
Click to expand...

This as it stands is an observation.
To turn it into an analysis, you will have to draw, and state a conclusion.
I will then be able to comment.


The key word here is "expected".
And if both do increase by 1.5%, and consumption (demand) is higher than supply, then you would expect "price" to rise further.

However, I am not convinced that anything of the sort will happen.
The current high prices will soften utility demand on falling margins, and encourage supply, on rising margins.

That leaves the extremely fickle speculative demand, which will follow the wind of sentiment.


And at this point it would behoove the analyst to really examine the demand data. And this is the point at which I entered this discussion;


Speculation in gold is running into bubble territory.
When bubbles form, they can inflate for far longer than any might reasonably expect, but there will always only be one outcome.


I would disagree, based on the previous quote.
"Consumer" demand is being snuffed out by speculative demand.
Consumer demand will remain on the sidelines, and stabilize the ultimate drop once speculative demand abates.

My speculative fundamental analysis suggests a conservative gold price of $700 this year based on the quantifiable intangibles that suggest it's a reasonably based intrinsic value.
Click to expand...

And you shall either be right or wrong. And even if you are right with your price target, this does not guarantee a profit, should the volatility increase and knock you out of your position..........as of course you subscribe to the "market is always right" mindset, and should your technical analysis of the markets message suggest that you are wrong.......even though you are right, you may miss your ultimate reward.

Why do namby pamby ducati types refuse to put a figure on gold going forward, preferring to obfuscate with economic theory which, curiously, appear to be difficult to calculate for a gold a utility value?
Click to expand...

Because you haven't asked me nicely.
Pretty please with ice cream and a cherry would be a good start.

jog on
d998
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati
You are unwittingly paying me a supreme compliment suggesting I am involved in technical analysis: Elsewhere I am only known for my presentation of information based on "fundamentals".

So let's see how a few of your comments stacked up (too long to cover them all):

Quote:
Something to ponder:
How long does it take to increase gold output to meet demand?
In relation to straightforward ramp up the minimum time frame from decision to expand to increased output is about 2 years.
Ducati’s answer, “Read the financial statements of the gold miners and calculate the time period, less current inventories. Very straightforward”, does not cut it.
There are many reasons why. For example, a mature underground mine cannot be significantly ramped up as there is a physical constraint to getting more ore from several kilometres underground. Also, in the case of underground mines, often the reserves are literally being proven as further mining occurs at depth. In other words, it is not unusual for underground mine life to be less than 5 years based on reserves, and each year the reserves must be added to in order to match depletion.
In the case of Greenfield gold mines, the accepted minimum time frame to get into production is around 5 years from discovery and, at best, 4 years from commencing a BFS.
Quote:
For the past 5 years higher prices have done very little to add to mine output and South Africa, the global leader, remains on trend of significant decline.
ducati said, “This as it stands is an observation. To turn it into an analysis, you will have to draw, and state a conclusion. I will then be able to comment.”
This one is a bit of a no brainer as the information is readily available (see below chart) and a conclusion has been made. Note that the legend for the chart is at http://www.gold.org/value/markets/supply_demand/mine_production.html and the bottom colour is South Africa’s production profile.
Quote:
In 2005 gold consumption was around 3300 tonnes while mine output was only about 2500 tonnes: Both these numbers are expected to increase around 1.5% next year, and as the denominator for consumption is higher than for output, the tonnage of consumption will continue to outstrip supply going forward.

ducati’s comment is as follows. “The key word here is "expected". And if both do increase by 1.5%, and consumption (demand) is higher than supply, then you would expect "price" to rise further. However, I am not convinced that anything of the sort will happen. The current high prices will soften utility demand on falling margins, and encourage supply, on rising margins. That leaves the extremely fickle speculative demand, which will follow the wind of sentiment.”

We will need to revisit this comment into the future and see how well he did.

Now a pretty please with whomever on top as you so choose - come up with a forward price on gold and we have something to toss around.
 

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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

You are unwittingly paying me a supreme compliment suggesting I am involved in technical analysis: Elsewhere I am only known for my presentation of information based on "fundamentals".
Click to expand...

Really, if I felt my analysis was based on the fundamentals, and I was called a technician I'd be really hurt.


I'm afraid it does.
You see that information will be made available, or should be in the financial reporting. By reading the reports, (MD&A + Notes) you will be able to calculate the time required to replenish inventory, also, inventory, as the name suggests, is the reserve of inventory held at the time the Balance sheet was produced.
For an up to the minute inventory, which I doubt just anyone would get, you would need to contact the company directly. A shareholder of substantial size would get the information, smaller ones .......who knows.


All in the financial reports.


We will need to revisit this comment into the future and see how well he did.
Click to expand...

Feel free to revisit it at any time you wish, I cannot be shown to be wrong, as of course I hedged my answer.
The reason of course is that currently the price contains a very large speculative component............and this is unpredictable, it may rise, it may fall........following the wind of sentiment, whatever happens, I can claim success.

Really "rob" you need to actually think a little before responding.

Now a pretty please with whomever on top as you so choose - come up with a forward price on gold and we have something to toss around.
Click to expand...

Ok, I'll have a think about it, after all you did try to ask nicely, even though you forgot my ice cream & cherry.

jog on
d998
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati and rederob...

thumbs up for the excellent discussion, clearly u both know ur stuff...

ducati, im with u and mainly invest on fundamentals, but dont be so quick to know those technical traders....

i know of some people who have been very profitable trading based on technical analysis...
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

dear ducati
Let me deal with only the issue of "inventory" as you have called it.
As you may know, in NZ and Australia we use JORC to provide minimum standards for public reporting that ensures investors and their advisers have all the information they would reasonably require for forming a reliable opinion on the results and estimates being reported. These reports must be released to the public by listed companies, so one does not have to contact anyone to get the latest state of play.
If you were to rely on Annual or 6 Monthly Reports for this information you would not get the most up to date data, as mining companies are required to report against these standards once a competent person has signed off.
By the way, we usually talk about a “resource inventory” and it is typically broken down to mineral resources and mineral (ore) reserves, and includes their respective sub-categories, measured, indicated and inferred resources, and proved and probable reserves.

You might use "cash flows", but I use JORC reports as the most valuable tool in my investment arsenal on resource equities.

I am curious to know how, as you put it, one calculates the time required to replenish inventory.

A producer of gold is a producer because it has defined its reserves and knows what it has a reasonable expectation of finding within the boundaries of these reserves.
Outside this boundary it may have a resource base that is yet to be converted to reserves, and it will implement infill drilling to "prove" economic grades (cut-offs determine the quality/quantity that can be economically mined).
Some producers have converted all their resources to reserves, and might need to rely on extension drilling, typically "along strike" if that option is still available. In these cases there is no guarantee that the strike length is continuous to any meaningful extent.

I emailed ducati’s reply to a mining engineer I am in contact with and he’s probably still laughing. He wants to know if ducati is available to ferret around a few of his prospective tenements for a couple of years, or if he can just cheat and put something on the resource inventory that meets his theory about time frames and ability to replace reserves. He also said if ducati can get his hands on a drilling rig (better still a crew that has a clue), he can name his price.

I am apologising in advance for not being able to post further replies as my work commitments will have me travelling around most days for the next month.
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?


Yep, btw an interesting article

http://www.gold.org/value/news/article/3474


So I wonder what happens to GOLD after Beijing Olympics in 2008?
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob


If you were to rely on Annual or 6 Monthly Reports for this information you would not get the most up to date data, as mining companies are required to report against these standards once a competent person has signed off.
Click to expand...

As I do not invest in NZ, nor Australia, I do not follow the reporting standards
However, unless the "JORK" are released on a daily basis, you could potentially still have a time lag. Time lags are not of vital importance to myself, as I am not a momentum player. The JORK report would be more than adequate for my needs.

.

Agreed.
All inventory, whether from an industrial manufacturer, or commodity producer has a classification process for inventory.
Proven Reserves are extremely important within this regard.

A producer of gold is a producer because it has defined its reserves and knows what it has a reasonable expectation of finding within the boundaries of these reserves.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

Outside this boundary it may have a resource base that is yet to be converted to reserves, and it will implement infill drilling to "prove" economic grades (cut-offs determine the quality/quantity that can be economically mined).
Click to expand...

Agreed.
And within the context of these two paragraphs you will find the companies depreciation (depletion) charges for both the ore (Property, mine) and Plant & Equipment required for extractive purposes. This however is not the investors calculation, and if the investor should utilize the companys depletion charges, he in all likelihood will end up overpaying for his investment.
The investor from the disclosed information must calculate the depreciation charge upon his investment at the time of purchase and prevailing values.


These should be ignored, as they are purely speculative, and cannot be included within any meaningful calculation.


Interesting how people come to conclusions.
They take a bare minimum of information, and in this case information that has been taken out of context, and extrapolate opinions based on this incomplete information.

I am curious to know how, as you put it, one calculates the time required to replenish inventory.
Click to expand...

As evidence, you do not actually know how I calculate the inventory replenishment rate. Yet based on in essence zero information, you are drawing conclusions. As the conclusion is based on zero analysis, based on zero information, the conclusion will most likely have zero relevance.

I am always intrigued by persons who invoke 3'rd parties, largely anonymous, to lend authority and credence to their flawed analysis.

The psychology of "Authority" has been studied at length within psychology looking to explain human decision making. By invoking a person of authority, in this case a "mining authority" you seek to influence the flow of the discussion to your bias.

Now you see I am a professional miner.
My wife pays me $0.50 a day to divine water with my forked twig.
Ridiculous you say............agreed, but on my resume, I have professional miner listed.

You see your mining engineer may be the CEO, or the tea boy.
By applying some common sense to the issue, lets take a stab at guessing which one he may be.

If the CEO,
I would expect a request for further information;
What are my qualifications, if any?
An example of the calculation, and the data utilized.
Previous experience of valuations of inventory.

If the tea boy........
Yeah, the guys an ********......I'm with you.

I am apologising in advance for not being able to post further replies as my work commitments will have me travelling around most days for the next month.
Click to expand...

A skeptic would read that and think............hmmmm, looks a bit like a bale out, the heat in the kitchen is rising.
I have already humiliated myself by begging for a valuation, time to cut and run.

But of course I am not a skeptic.
I understand that some people must still work for a living, and I am in no rush, and extremely patient...........I shall continue the discussion when work commitments allow you to continue.

The topic is diverging slightly as well.
Initially it seemed that the question really revolved around the price of gold ............the commodity which without a cash-flow is extremely speculative and difficult to value.

I have devised a methodology that will provide a basis of a valuation for the price of gold.

If however, you wish to value the production value,..............viz. gold produced via a business valuation, that is what I do all day long, value businesses.......apart from when I am here of course!

jog on
d998
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

nizar

ducati, im with u and mainly invest on fundamentals, but dont be so quick to know those technical traders....

i know of some people who have been very profitable trading based on technical analysis...
Click to expand...

Well, you may well do.
I have to admit that I also know a few successful technical traders.
However, the rather limited statistics that I have gathered indicate that the majority of technical traders that I am personally aware of, struggle constantly, and are net losers.

Although, this is probably not the thread to debate the point.
jog on
d998
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Any specific article at GE?
I have not been there in ages since I was banned for mentioning some Aussie stocks that up up around several hundred %
 
Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets

Social Psychology

And the point of intersection with mathematics, specifically statistics .
We have within the world of distribution several different calculations, in no particular order;

Normal, or Gaussian
Poisson
Erlang
Power-law, and
Bayesian.

Bayesian has particular correlation to technical analysis, and technical analysts .

The key to Bayesian reasoning is not in having an extensive, unbiased sample, which is the eternal worry of frequentists, but rather in having an "appropriate" prior .
This prior is a paradigm, or model, of how the world, or in this example, the market functions, which can be expessed as a mathematical probability distribution of the frequency with which events can be predicted

This would seem to describe technical analysis, in that "priors" are assigned so much weight within the analysis.
It particularly crops up (and with alarming regularity) when discussing the concept of "probability" This set-up has XYZ probability of success.
This will tie in with the nascent field of "Behavioral Finance", but before looking at specific examples thought I might see what others think.

jog on
d998
 
Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets

Son Kris is doing his doctorate in physics specialising in Laser and Photonics.

Ive had many discussions with Kris on the mathamatical models that I use and that could be used in the study of finance and indeed trading.

I remember one afternoon when he grabbed a piece of paper and wrote 2 pages of calculations which looked like something out of Rainman.

With a smile he said this.

"You can mathamatically explain anything you wish.You can also mathamatically prove or disprove the same arguement."

I see I said so whats the 2 pages mean.?

Here he said I have Mathamatically proven that black is indeed white!

I cant argue mathematics as I'm not that smart.
nor do I think a discussion here would mean much to those reading.

I've always said that I believe that traders have the ability to turn the simple into the most complex.
Duc I really think this is an example of this.
 
Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets

tech/a

Interesting reply.
Was it not just yesterday that you were promulgating some advice and venturing an opinion based on my being rather closed minded?

Perhaps you need to do a business course,Im currently doing an Advanced business Management degree at Adelaide Uni.Fantastic
Click to expand...

My reply went;

Tried that, I found the vast majority of the lecturers to be too slow for my taste.
Every now and then you encounter a great one, but not often enough to justify my time.
Click to expand...

To which you replied,

To slow in what? Teaching,presenting new material? Presenting material of interest or practical value.
You seem very closed in your veiws---yours must be correct as you must be right.
Click to expand...

And here we are not 24 hours later singing a different tune,


Now of course you have illustrated with the absolute PERFECT example of Beyesian reasoning the extrapolation of an opinion based on very little to zero quantitative information.

You really have very little quantitative or qualitative information save your own bias, or "priors" on which to judge the interest or lack thereof.

This really equates to the Price chart utilized by technical analysis.
You have very limited factual information regarding the stock, yet, due to the "priors" of the analyst, they will project a future trend, that by mathematical law must prove to be either right or wrong......bless me, 50/50 yet again.

How this all ties into psychology, behavioral finance, and some of the latest theories in finance is rather interesting...........well to myself anyway.

jog on
d998
 
Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets

Fire away old son,and others if I can understand it happy to learn something.

Dont know about everyone else but I cant make sense of your topics!

Thought my post indicated that I cant add anything.

Mate I'm thicker than 3 coats of paint so if I can make a quid anyone can.

Infact I've found those with high intellegence tend to fail dismally in trading/and property developement/investment.
Seems that by the time they have worked it out so that they are 100% sure they are doing the right thing---opportunity is lost-gone-disappeared- no longer existant.
 
Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets

Leading on from the preceeding, a question for the advocates of technical analysis.............

Within your trading paradigm, are your decisions to buy and sell securities based on analysis, or emotion?


jog on
d998
 
Re: Influence of Social Sciences on Stock Markets

ducati916 said:
Leading on from the preceeding, a question for the advocates of technical analysis.............

Within your trading paradigm, are your decisions to buy and sell securities based on analysis, or emotion?


jog on
d998
Click to expand...

I'd say the analysis OF the emotion Duc.

As one example, some folks practice the art of "nearology". Say XYZ exploration NL strikes a whopping gold find, the nearologist will find out other companies with tenements in the general area, looking for technical justification to enter.

The news punters will most likely me doing the same, based on emotion at having missed the big move on XYZ... a very short term strategy.

I could go on but you get the picture.
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Looks like ducati fell off his bike!
Much obfuscation and parsing, and suspension of belief in favour of theory nearing diatribe, but where is his clear and unambiguous statement on where gold is heading?
As to which economic treatment one chooses to "value" gold, it matters not as the deciding factor remains its future price (given we know its present and previous prices).
ducati, stump up!
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

Much obfuscation and parsing, and suspension of belief in favour of theory nearing diatribe, but where is his clear and unambiguous statement on where gold is heading?
Click to expand...

I entered this discussion to argue the case against gold possessing any "intrinsic value" in the financial definition. That gold does possess a "utility value" and that this utility value is not represented by the current price.

The current price of the commodity = utility value + speculative value

Speculative value is based on sentiment, emotion, psychology.
As such, its value is incalcuable, it simply is the price last traded.

Of course trading, or investing within the physical is but one way of taking an exposure to gold. The other way is to take exposure via the "Producers".
Therefore, based on a valuation of the producers we can "estimate" the speculative component of the commodity reflected in the equation.

There is possibly a second methodology to infer the specualtive price into the future of the physical commodity. This calculation utilizes some "fundamental" inputs by which the psychological reaction (pricing) can be correlated.

Combining the two valuation methodologies may, or may not, add some value to the question of "price" going into the future.

As to which economic treatment one chooses to "value" gold, it matters not as the deciding factor remains its future price (given we know its present and previous prices).
Click to expand...

Absolute nonsense.

jog on
d998
 
All aboard, gold is moving again!

All aboard, gold is moving again. See gold future chart (http://tinyurl.com/m4rkn) and gold stock index chart(http://www.masteremail.com/Images/Charts/IndexCharts/$HUI_Daily_VolumeChart.jpg). Cartoons may help. Be warned, the cartoons may be offesive to some. See Jim Sinclair's cartoons (http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=3410&T_ARID=3479&cTID=0&cCat=&cSubCat=)

P.S. I think gold has entered the phase where charting has diminishing use because geo-political factors will lead, e.g. do not be surprised if gold move than $20 per day.

Free fund prices - http://www.globevestor.com/download.html
 
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