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GEM - G8 Education

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by Plumber1, Mar 30, 2011.

  1. helpme

    helpme

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    I am sick to the stomach this morning. Took losses of >20% on G8. It is one of my larger holdings in the portfolio.

    I think it is due to the A$9m hit of Long Day Care Professional Development Program funding
    Anyone can hazard a guess why G8 plunged so much this morning?

    Time for deep reflection over the loss.
     
  2. VSntchr

    VSntchr

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    Have you not seen the updated earnings guidance released today?
    Sorry about your loss, it happens in the stockmarket unfortunately and all you can do is learn and bounce back over time.
     
  3. helpme

    helpme

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    Thanks. I am still a bit dazed at the moment. >20% in a single morning for a large holding is pretty stunning to the mind.
     
  4. helpme

    helpme

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    Here is latest announcement that caused the >20% plunge this morning.
    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171204/pdf/43pvszsqw16v6n.pdf

    It was a reduction in forecast. There is nothing to justify a 20% plunge or hundreds of millions of losses in a single morning. Are there prior warning signs that could be heeded? Any smarter forummers here who avoided this bomb?
     
  5. dutchie

    dutchie

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    Sorry for you loss helpme.
    Unfortunately you may be in for some more pain, especially if it brakes support at about $3.
     
  6. WRiley

    WRiley

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    I'm sorr
    I'm sorry for your loss, I have not read the guidance nor done any study, but if you are sure this is just a temporary down-blip,.. then just hold on to the counter. It's only an unrealised loss before you sell.

    I sold out at 3.98 after they changed the dividend policy a few months ago,... I find this counter hard to understand, there are just so many moving parts.
     
  7. Dzaak

    Dzaak

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    If you look back a page, I was in strong support of this stock in mid 2016 (that feels like a long time ago now).

    At the time, it was around $3.20, and I said the conservative investors ought to exit around $3.60. Iw asn't conservative, held on and got out at a tad over $4. I wish I held on slightly longer as the peak above $4.50 came around, but I was happy to not be taking that risk as GEM has always collapsed above $4.

    Anyway, I haven't been paying attention to GEM until I saw this opportunity.

    For those who have lost, I feel for you. I hope it all works out.. I've been there (was experiencing this exact same thing the first time I owned GEM, but I held on and averaged down before selling at $4).

    All I can say is there is a good opportunity here to average down, but it is worth waiting for the price to stabilize first. Even if the price pops up now, at least you're not taking the risk of buying while the price is still in a downward trend.

    I've been burnt by TPG where I bought after a weak result, thinking I was buying at great value, only to see the price not stabilize and a very slow downward trend over the next 6-12 months.

    For those wanting to take advantage of GEM, keep watching and be patient. When the price is stabilized, or starting to go up, then look to average down from the high price you bought at.

    GEM has been through this before and I think it can get back to $3.60
     
  8. Dzaak

    Dzaak

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    Regarding my above comments, I also just want to add that the strength of GEM when it becomes cheap is because of its generous dividends. As it gets cheap like it is now below $2.80, the dividend yield looks great.

    So all I can say is that even though it is a great idea to buy in or average down when the G8 price stabilizes, this is with the assumption that GEM keeps it's 10c bi-annual dividend. If results continue to wane, dividends may lower for all we know, that could be disastrous to the share price which has historically always bounced back when the div yield is looking so juicy.
     
  9. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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  10. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    G8 Education punished by the market today following the release of their HY18 financial results, which was mostly bad news.

    screenshot-www.aspecthuntley.com.au-2018.08.27-11-31-54.png

    Occupancy levels are down and wage costs are up. The company is not forecasting a material improvement in market conditions until mid to late 2019.

    GEM is down 14.05% to $2.08 today. Given the grim trading outlook it is fair to say that we should see GEM languishing below $2 for some time. It's been a rough 12 months for G8 Education, but it looks like the pain isn't over yet.

    big.chart-GEM.gif
     
  11. rnr

    rnr

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    2018-11-29 GEM re ASF.png

    GEM is slowly clawing back lost ground....but is it about to break above higher resistance?
     
  12. peter2

    peter2

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    GEM has finally broken above recent resistance at the 3.00 level.

    The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

    Setup: A clear BO-HR that I didn't see last week. :oops: Buying it a little late.
    Grade A
    Buy limit: 3.05, iSL 2.60, initial target 4.40

    gem280119.PNG
     
    Smurf1976, jjbinks and debtfree like this.
  13. Skate

    Skate

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    Disclaimer
    I'm on this move already.

    The chart below explains my entry (my Hybrid system need to be breakouts early)

    Skate.

    GEM Capture.JPG
     
    JimmyJames80, debtfree and peter2 like this.
  14. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    And down we go.....

    Closed at $3.63 on Friday, currently trading at $3.18 so a significant fall following various announcements today.
     
  15. Ann

    Ann

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    Trying to focus on volumes which I tend to ignore far too much. The EquiVolume GEM chart shows a lot of selling pressure at this level and above. I think from now on it may struggle as there is big selling pressure as well as a big gap down to overcome. It is a big ask to fight above all of this.
    GEM EV 2.19.png
     
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  16. rnr

    rnr

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    GEM re ASF 2019-02-25.png

    Interesting to see how quickly today prices moved to recover a portion of the extended move down!

    I'm beginning to wonder if the market will accept that profits were down and that price will, over the next few bars, make a high in excess of $3.63.
     
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