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FMG - Fortescue Ltd

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njc.corp said:
micheal-if i was to say for example that the method as only been used 10 times what does that mean-

avg win is between 1500-1850

avg loss is 350-450-

well how does anyone know when luck has come into it-
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I'm confused; you've described 17 trades in one day, and now you're describing the method only being used 10 times...?

Your win size vs loss size is consistent with positive expectancy.
 
MichaelD said:
I'm confused; you've described 17 trades in one day, and now you're describing the method only being used 10 times...?

Your win size vs loss size is consistent with positive expectancy.
Click to expand...

u are not confused-maybe i said it wrong-

i am saying for example if i use your method only ten times -what difference does it make-


never mind-i think i am going to get the blame for hi-jacking this thread-

Thanks for the replies----

Thanks

Nick--
 
(RTTNews) - Ausdrill Ltd. (ASL.AX: News ,AUSDF.PK: News ) announced the receipt of an A$300 million contract expansion from Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FSUMF.PK: News ). The contract extends and expands Ausdrill's existing engagement with FMG to encompass drill and blast and grade control drilling.

The contract expansion will be Ausdrill's largest drill and blast contract, with more than 30 drill rigs in operation.

Ausdrill said that the work formed part of the more than $1 billion in contract extension that Ausdrill was negotiating or tendering on in September and October.

by RTT Staff Writer

http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=706029&SMap=1
 
i think what michael is describing is the equivalent of buying when the pink is above the blue and sells when the blue goes above the pink.
or something similar.
so currently he would still be out, depending on his preferred lags or bands or whatever

a lot depends on ones time of hold, and fmg is an unusually wide volatile stock.
 

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Folks

I am sure most of you have read the recent contract with AUS drill of $300 M with FMG

Where as it is an excellent news for Macmahon MAH and Aus Drill AUS but it is a bad news for FMG aspirants (I hold FMG) in my opinion

The reason is to align with West Australian report today that it shows FMG is having doubt on surface miners capability for its next phase of operatins.

If you refer back to my postings in the past one competitive advantage FMG has was surface miner and elimination of drilling and crushing cost by traditional route followed by BHP and Rio

THe fact is Ausdrill be used (300 M is not a small value contract for geological samples and that is a bull story to suggest so) means the cost of production for FMG will be very high than its earlier projection.

WIth sagging market FMG is increasingly going down probably the reason for down trend. Even market brings I think (no technical data excepting my own experience in this field) that FMG has to work very hard to get back to $8 for a while. I do not like as that means personally I will be in red

May be that was why Harbinger belled themselves out by partial sell off and it was not the short sellers

Wait and see in one month from now.

Regards
 
I'm out - couldn't take it any longer. I should have ditched ealier, but it just doesn't seem to sink in though. Feel annoyed with FMG, but also relieved. Good luck to FMG holders, I may be back in better times.
 
Now below $6 - that didn't take long.

Will you hold on to this fine company if it gets down to $5?

If I'd held on I'd now have watched the price skyrocket up into a profitable trade and then plummet back down again to a loss, a cardinal sin for a trader.

Good luck to all that continue to hold.
 
I'm holding, it would have to drop below $0.30 for me to loose money, I've held for over 3 years now, selling parcels here and there so I've done nicely already.

In saying that, I'm spewing to know that it hit $13.00 not too long ago. But I'm also not a trader so even if I sold all my shares at $13.00 what would I have put it in? The bank? I just don't have time to reasearch much else these days.
 
Re: FMG-id love to see $5.00($50)again

I got into fmg last year at $33 then held & got a stack at $25 then sold at $50 just before the solomon announcement sent it to around $66.

i got into strife for saying they would reach $100($10 now)they did have dramas with the 1st shipment despite what others know or believe,the first shipment was trucked most of the way(initial 32,000t worth)

notwithstanding the current market conditions its clear fmg ran a bit ahead of itself now its all over for some as they move onto other plays,but ive had a look in the last few days thinking gee $5.00 is a gimme very long term if it happens.

fmg at $5.00 big chance i might raid the secret stash.see what gives by xmas...tb
 
Some food for thought:



Perhaps an opportunity to get some strength behind it, as some mentioned prior to my post its now in that 5/6 to 8 range.
 
I'm not that concerned about $300m contract for drill and blast, i realize some consider it a sign of uncertainty for the roadminer concept, but until i know more on what the services are used for, I'm not too concerned. (I have sometimes wondered if a bit of explosives could accelerate roadminers). as long as they don't require a crusher and can run mostly continuously (not cyclically) then they should be ok. And i would expect drill and blast would still be used for overburden anyway.

yeah i'll still hold, a 50mtPA low cost iron ore operation going to 100mtPA is too good a story for me to ignore. I would say all stocks without dividends in Australia are being hammered and FMG is no exception, but that doesn't change its fundamentals, and while short term it go anywhere, a 100mtPA iron ore mine could carry a market cap of about 2xWoolies.

aus dollar down - good for miners
Vale increasing ore prices, good for miners.
 
I missed out on FMG , a stellar performance but short selling I am told has sent it down again.

I am interested in getting in.

Just below $6 seems like a reasonable entry point , although points at $1.50 above and below this have been support and resistance in the past.... $7.00 and $4.40 in particular

Any thoughts from the technical aspect?

gg
 

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I'm only learning technical analysis myself so I'm not going to claim to have all the answers, but given the amount of time and also change in FMG since the stock price was last at $4, I'm not sure that it is still a particularly valid support. I'm not exactly sure where the supports are now though, given that metal and oil commodities price fluctuations seem to be dominating the movements of FMG rather than any inherent strengths or weaknesses in the company. In the last couple of months, what have at first seemed like support lines ($8 in late July and $7 in August) have been broken straight through with ease...
 
CAB SAV said:
I'm not in a rush to get into this yet.
Capex/mine fleet costs up and gets worse with bigger ramp up.
Cash at end March was $650 mill, probably will be well down under $50mill by end of year.
With costs rising, this is too thin cash wise.
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Still not rushing in. It,s not going to "shoot up" and your'e not going to miss the boat. Relax, wait. Would not touch till in definite upward trend.
 
LeeTV said:
Not sure if that was meant to be sarcastic or not :

If not:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t

High tech I'm not. Green I am, light green at that.
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Lee TV

Bloody good education and thanks a lot

Rest assured I was not at all sarcastic and never feel shy to ask if something I do not know.

I also realise seeing the excellent reference site you gave me, that there is no short cut to get anything - good research and education is a must even in share market

Thank you very much once again.
 
going to be interesting watching the DOW tonight on the back of the bankruptcy news of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings
 
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