So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
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Can someone tell me where I can see a complete table of option strike prices and expiration months for stock options that trade for Flight Centre?
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/s...nderlyingCode&underlyingCode=FLT&optionType=B
Aussie options are way more expensive to trade than US ones.
Bit of an odd ball post........I was watching one of my favourite shows, "Californication (First Season)" and in one of the key scenes........just in background, I could see one of Flight Centres US stores........which I believe have all since been branded Liberty............
Anyway, I started thinking, here you have the US business with the greatest potential off any of FLT's markets, where do you think in FLT's current market capitalisation the US business sits........Since it's an overall loss maker, it's probable that a negative value is placed on it currently.....although I understand the 'business travel' in US makes a profit........it's a funny thing......picture all of FLT's employees in US going off to work each day in a business that would not exist if FLT worked off a franchise model......
I don't really see how the US business is running at an operating loss, I understand it's just write downs on the Liberty acquisition which was apparently solidly profitable on acquisition
Not many Aussie companies kick ass in the US but we keep going over there......It makes sense cause the rewards are so high.......and in an industry that I think naturally tends toward global domination (it's travel after all), I'd put a lot of money on FLT's US business churning out the equivalent of today's market cap ever year, in not a ridiculous future timeframe
Eeek...
FLT in a tailspin again today...down another 12%? Perhaps finishing on zi low did account for something.
I'm pretty Noob but it looks like its sitting on support from mid 97 and start of 99? Chart love from anyone who knows?
Any of you FLT Warren Buffet's buying up big now?
Eeek...
I'm pretty Noob but it looks like its sitting on support from mid 97 and start of 99? Chart love from anyone who knows?
They have plenty of cash, so they are not going broke anytime soon. In fact the could even make losses for a couple of years and still not need to raise capital.
Im still waiting to buy in, will probably look for some trend confirmation...
Those cash are not really their's to keep, as pointed out earlier by another poster. Have a look at their balance sheet.
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents $457m
Financial assets $187m
Receivables $319m
The first two items are their cash / investments, total some $640m.
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables $870m
Borrowings $72m
So you can see their cash / investments are to be paid out to their suppliers - namely airlines, hotels, tour operators etc. They get the customer's cash first and pay their supplier later. As long as they have more revenue next month, this can go on and they get to enjoy income from having the cash sitting in their bank account.
In fact, their quick ratio is just around 1. Whilst that's not a problem they are also not rolling in cash.
So where do we get a complete report for the recent Flight Centre earnings release? Someone here made reference to a slide show. Where do we find it? I'm usually in US stocks and those have 10Q reports each quarter, and they get widely distributed by the press.
I have to see the presentation, but it looks like this quarter they had some one time restructuring costs? Can someone explain why they had operating earnings that were positive, but hugely negative operating cash flow? That's the opposite of their usual result.
man im so tempted to buy this at $4.
what would the p/e ratio be now?
remember this stock had a 1 time write off amount with liberty of 60m or so. cant remember exactly. and as other agencies fall in this environment FLT will pick up extra business.
Most annoncements are lodged to ASX and can be accessed here:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO
Not sure but probably due to timing differences of accrual accounting vs cash flow statment. The P&L showed total costs of doing their business at ~$835m, whereas the total "Payments to suppliers etc" under cash flow statement was around $1,040m. Either they post-paid them a lot of money incurred from the period before, or they pre-paid them something for the following period.
Let's see. NPAT for half = $26.1m. Say full year = $55m. Total shares outstanding = 99.6m, so that's $0.55 per share. Latest price $4.4. P/E = 8.
Discl. I shorted this yesterday around $4.7, partially exited this morning at $4.15. Will probably re-enter the short if it gets close to my previous entry. My target is ~$3.5, based on the market pricing their dividend yield at ~6% (i.e. demand higher yield because of dividend uncertainty).
Wouldn't a dividend yield at 6% based on a full year dividend of 16 cents put the stock at $2.66? Personally I think it was a bad decision for management to hoard so much of the dividend so quickly. They eroded their support for the stock and it will be trading at $2 to $3 before this over. They could have lowered a little each quarter if conditions in the economy did not stabilize.
Shorting a $5 stock that could one day receive a buyout offer above $15/share isn't my idea of easy money. I agree with your general thesis and targets, but you have unhedged risks that are multiples of your investment.
Wouldn't a dividend yield at 6% based on a full year dividend of 16 cents put the stock at $2.66? Personally I think it was a bad decision for management to hoard so much of the dividend so quickly. They eroded their support for the stock and it will be trading at $2 to $3 before this over. They could have lowered a little each quarter if conditions in the economy did not stabilize.
Shorting a $5 stock that could one day receive a buyout offer above $15/share isn't my idea of easy money. I agree with your general thesis and targets, but you have unhedged risks that are multiples of your investment.
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