Watch out Insider, I tipped JRL its biggest shareholder and am JUST in front of you
for now
EME - Energy Metals
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Watch out Insider, I tipped JRL its biggest shareholder and am JUST in front of you
for now- Joined
- 25 July 2006
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Well Insider, I hope you did a bit more than just tip EME in the stock comp!.
This stock seems to be really humming along. Is anyone following this? Was on my hotlist but bought BMN and ERN instead.
The shareprice has hovered around the $7 mark for a few days now. This has been on pretty thin trading, not smart enough to know what that means! Was the drop in the shareprice early in July somehow related to the tax calendar? The proof of the pudding will be how the market reacts to the next set of drill results from Bigryli, then a future resource update later in the year. Double?
Was the drop in the shareprice early in July somehow related to the tax calendar? The proof of the pudding will be how the market reacts to the next set of drill results from Bigryli, then a future resource update later in the year. Double?
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Director Lindsay Dudfield has bought 45,080 shares on-market at $5.00 each to bring his holding to 1.4m ordinary shares.
JRL is definitely a cheaper way to get EME. they are trading under the NTA (Just 40% of EME holdings...before other holdings, cash and other tenements)
I think takeover from PDN is imminent. They can create a lot of synergy in Birqli together.
Probably not a full takeover because of Denison's 10% blocking stake...but controlling stake is good enough....just what they did to SMM in Mt. Isa tenement...
I think takeover from PDN is imminent. They can create a lot of synergy in Birqli together.
Probably not a full takeover because of Denison's 10% blocking stake...but controlling stake is good enough....just what they did to SMM in Mt. Isa tenement...
i rarely if ever post here but Denison's stake is not a blocking stake.
1. due to the high proportional ownership of EME by JRL
2. high director onwership or both JRL and EME
3. high friend and family ownership of both.
means that around 65% are under direct control of directors and a further 10% is probably controlled by friends, so a scheme of arrangement would easily lead to a change in ownership.
1. due to the high proportional ownership of EME by JRL
2. high director onwership or both JRL and EME
3. high friend and family ownership of both.
means that around 65% are under direct control of directors and a further 10% is probably controlled by friends, so a scheme of arrangement would easily lead to a change in ownership.
Yeah i hope it's not a blocking stake....but it could be. If Denison wanted EME, they would have bid for it long time ago.
Denison's 10% holding of EME should remind us like Areva's 10% holding of SMM....it is created to avoid PDN to fully takeover its prey so that PDN won't be too big as their competitor and small enough to be their (Areva or Denison) next takeover target.
EME's biggest asset is Birqli just like SMM's Mt. Isa....which is a joint venture with PDN.
PDN obviously benefit more from the synergy of these tenements if it could CONTROL them. PDN doesn't have to OWN (100%) them...just CONTROL (>50%) them...so Denison's and Areva's holding is more passive investment and like going for a ride with PDN at the helm.
Look at SMM, Summit resources...Paladin is happy to sit there with 81% holding and leave Areva in the cold...
PDN paid $6 for SMM when it was only $3...
EME should worth at least $6 to PDN too
PDN is still the natural predator for EME...
However, only they can only do it through JRL and its associates...who own >50% of EME and hence, the CONTROLLING stake of EME's Birqli.
Again....as JRL shareholder....I hope Denison launch the first bid for EME and not just for blocking sake....then the auction war shall started with PDN definitely in the mix and who knows who else is interested.....
Denison's 10% holding of EME should remind us like Areva's 10% holding of SMM....it is created to avoid PDN to fully takeover its prey so that PDN won't be too big as their competitor and small enough to be their (Areva or Denison) next takeover target.
EME's biggest asset is Birqli just like SMM's Mt. Isa....which is a joint venture with PDN.
PDN obviously benefit more from the synergy of these tenements if it could CONTROL them. PDN doesn't have to OWN (100%) them...just CONTROL (>50%) them...so Denison's and Areva's holding is more passive investment and like going for a ride with PDN at the helm.
Look at SMM, Summit resources...Paladin is happy to sit there with 81% holding and leave Areva in the cold...
PDN paid $6 for SMM when it was only $3...
EME should worth at least $6 to PDN too
PDN is still the natural predator for EME...
However, only they can only do it through JRL and its associates...who own >50% of EME and hence, the CONTROLLING stake of EME's Birqli.
Again....as JRL shareholder....I hope Denison launch the first bid for EME and not just for blocking sake....then the auction war shall started with PDN definitely in the mix and who knows who else is interested.....
Denisons holding in EME pre-dates any ownership by PDN of Bigrlyi. it wasn't offered to ward off PDN.
a scheme of arrangement will skirt Denison's stake so long as they can attain 75% in a vote from shareholders.
also consider that EME hold almost all the ground along strike from the Bigrlyi deposit so their controlling stake in Bigrlyi is worth substantially more than it appears at face value.
EME is still in play with the most likely timing after the resource upgrade and scoping study mk II. i believe terms have been discussed with PDN to allow the release more detail that the joke release last time.
a scheme of arrangement will skirt Denison's stake so long as they can attain 75% in a vote from shareholders.
also consider that EME hold almost all the ground along strike from the Bigrlyi deposit so their controlling stake in Bigrlyi is worth substantially more than it appears at face value.
EME is still in play with the most likely timing after the resource upgrade and scoping study mk II. i believe terms have been discussed with PDN to allow the release more detail that the joke release last time.
Thanks Wolverine
I am bullish with uranium sector in general. Uranium price also recovering now around $90 level with a long term price around $100.
Even without takeover, Birqli is a substantial asset any uranium company would like to have...
However, if Denison decide to takeover EME...it can only own 54% of Birqli...the other owner PDN 41% and Southern Cross 5%...and I highly doubt PDN will sell to Denison
If PDN takeover EME...PDN would have 95% of Birqli...and Southern Cross 5%
Southern Cross will sell its 5% stake to the highest bidder...because it is not a controlling stake...
That is why I think PDN is the natural predator of EME given the size and synergy of the 2 company...PDN wouldn't sit around with a massive, passive 41% stake in Birqli if they can do a better job than the EME's team in extracting Birqli potential.
I am bullish with uranium sector in general. Uranium price also recovering now around $90 level with a long term price around $100.
Even without takeover, Birqli is a substantial asset any uranium company would like to have...
However, if Denison decide to takeover EME...it can only own 54% of Birqli...the other owner PDN 41% and Southern Cross 5%...and I highly doubt PDN will sell to Denison
If PDN takeover EME...PDN would have 95% of Birqli...and Southern Cross 5%
Southern Cross will sell its 5% stake to the highest bidder...because it is not a controlling stake...
That is why I think PDN is the natural predator of EME given the size and synergy of the 2 company...PDN wouldn't sit around with a massive, passive 41% stake in Birqli if they can do a better job than the EME's team in extracting Birqli potential.
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I looked into performance of EME and AGS. EME looks more promising. It is going for split : 1 into 3. Could some one please throw some ligth on the split issue and any prediction ?
Recent past I have noticed : FMG gone up after split, MON gone down after split, CSL gone up aftre split, BHP gone up, POS gone down, DIO gone down (?). Normally the speculative ones gone down and producers gone up.
I have reproduced a note from compareshares for you to read and has reference to both EME and AGS :
A CompareShares analysis shows that of a sample of some 50 uranium exploration companies listed on the ASX, only five performed above the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index over the last 6 months. The Australian operations that were exceptions to the rule were: Epsilon, Genesis, Integra, Lincoln Minerals, and Primary Resources.
Experts Say
CompareShares asked two leading specialist uranium market analysts – Warwick Grigor of Far East Capital and Stephen Bartrop of Stock Resources – some questions to make sense of it all:
1. What explains uranium’s downturn? 2. What’s the outlook? 3. Which companies are they tipping in 2008 and why?
Stephen Bartrop of Stock Resource reckons that the Australian uranium equities market reached "a state of euphoria" in early 2007.
"Uranium equities’ prices were out of whack with reality. Their rate of increase far outstripped the value of the companies. The fire was fuelled by retail investors who were having blind punts on companies who simply had the word ‘uranium’ someplace on their website," Bartrop says.
"The back half saw an inevitable correction. What also emerged was increased differentiation between companies within the sector, as discerning investors figured out who has real value and what was purely speculative," Bartrop continues.
Warwick Grigor, whose Far East Capital will be issuing a uranium equities market study this week, has a similar view about the front half of 2007: "a lot of hot money with very little quality control."
"Part of the dynamic were outrageous statements by some exploration companies and their spruiking of very selective deposit sampling. It was a feeding frenzy. It was stupid for the market to go so high, and then stupid for it to go so low. Now, we’ve got a much more realistic situation," Grigor says.
Going forward, Grigor remains optimistic about uranium.
"The commodity price is still nine times what it was five years ago and the forecast price of around $USUS to $US100 realistically reflects the actual shortage of material for the next three years.
"Putting aside 2007’s distortions, there is real structural change in the way we generate electricity around the world. The expansion of the nuclear industry – partially driven by climate change concerns – is only constrained by the shortage in supply of uranium," Grigor says.
Going forward, Bartrop agrees there will be increased uranium demand, but counsels a ‘squeeze the avocado’ investment strategy.
"The reality with this sector is that there is a very big variety in the quality of the resource. On the one hand, you have companies that actually have established access to uranium deposits and, on the other hand, some companies who are just kicking sandhills.
"It also depends on where you are operating. There is for instance greater policy certainty in South Australia and the Northern Territory than there is in Western Australia and Queensland," Bartrop points out.
Grigor also counsels carefully picking and choosing.
"It’s very easy to get positive signs of radioactivity, but it’s very hard to have systematic drilling and sampling programs that prove something’s mineable. Those are the companies to look for," he says.
The experts’ advice reminds CompareShares of an old resource sector joke. How do you spoil a perfectly good exploration prospect? Drill a hole.
Tips
Jokes aside, what are Bartrop and Grigor tipping for 2008?
Both nominate the same company – Energy Metals. Says Bartrop: "Big deposit at Bigrylyi in the Northern Territory, big JV partner in Paladin, increasing their commitment." Says Grigor: "Good grade material, looks like one of the Australian sector’s live ones."
Energy Metals (ASX code: EME) has had a 52 week high of $8.29 and is currently trading around $3.40. Last week, the company informed the market that it has just completed further drilling exploration at Bigrylyi and looks to have the "upgraded resource expected to be available in late March."
While favouring US operators, Grigor also puts Aussie-listed Alliance Resources on his tip list. "They’ve got one of the best discoveries in Australia going at Four Mile in South Australia and they’re in it with the very established player, Heathgate [who operate one of Australia’s three current uranium mines]."
Alliance Resources (ASX code: AGS) has had a 52 week high of $2.88 and is currently trading around $1.40. Two weeks ago, Alliance advised the market on its exploration program at Four Mile with its CEO stating that the October and November drilling results were "outstanding".
Finally, while there are dozens of uranium explorers listed on the ASX, there are but two Australian-based uranium miners/ producers that are open to stockmarket investors: BHP Billiton, who operate the Olympic Dam mine in South Australia, and; Rio Tinto, who through its Energy Resources Australia subsidiary operate the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory. (The operator of the third existing mine, Beverley in South Australia, is Heathgate Resources who are an affiliate of the US-listed General Atomics.) Certainly, the value of the two big Aussie miners isn’t built on uranium alone, and especially not on ‘just kicking sandhills’.
Recent past I have noticed : FMG gone up after split, MON gone down after split, CSL gone up aftre split, BHP gone up, POS gone down, DIO gone down (?). Normally the speculative ones gone down and producers gone up.
I have reproduced a note from compareshares for you to read and has reference to both EME and AGS :
A CompareShares analysis shows that of a sample of some 50 uranium exploration companies listed on the ASX, only five performed above the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index over the last 6 months. The Australian operations that were exceptions to the rule were: Epsilon, Genesis, Integra, Lincoln Minerals, and Primary Resources.
Experts Say
CompareShares asked two leading specialist uranium market analysts – Warwick Grigor of Far East Capital and Stephen Bartrop of Stock Resources – some questions to make sense of it all:
1. What explains uranium’s downturn? 2. What’s the outlook? 3. Which companies are they tipping in 2008 and why?
Stephen Bartrop of Stock Resource reckons that the Australian uranium equities market reached "a state of euphoria" in early 2007.
"Uranium equities’ prices were out of whack with reality. Their rate of increase far outstripped the value of the companies. The fire was fuelled by retail investors who were having blind punts on companies who simply had the word ‘uranium’ someplace on their website," Bartrop says.
"The back half saw an inevitable correction. What also emerged was increased differentiation between companies within the sector, as discerning investors figured out who has real value and what was purely speculative," Bartrop continues.
Warwick Grigor, whose Far East Capital will be issuing a uranium equities market study this week, has a similar view about the front half of 2007: "a lot of hot money with very little quality control."
"Part of the dynamic were outrageous statements by some exploration companies and their spruiking of very selective deposit sampling. It was a feeding frenzy. It was stupid for the market to go so high, and then stupid for it to go so low. Now, we’ve got a much more realistic situation," Grigor says.
Going forward, Grigor remains optimistic about uranium.
"The commodity price is still nine times what it was five years ago and the forecast price of around $USUS to $US100 realistically reflects the actual shortage of material for the next three years.
"Putting aside 2007’s distortions, there is real structural change in the way we generate electricity around the world. The expansion of the nuclear industry – partially driven by climate change concerns – is only constrained by the shortage in supply of uranium," Grigor says.
Going forward, Bartrop agrees there will be increased uranium demand, but counsels a ‘squeeze the avocado’ investment strategy.
"The reality with this sector is that there is a very big variety in the quality of the resource. On the one hand, you have companies that actually have established access to uranium deposits and, on the other hand, some companies who are just kicking sandhills.
"It also depends on where you are operating. There is for instance greater policy certainty in South Australia and the Northern Territory than there is in Western Australia and Queensland," Bartrop points out.
Grigor also counsels carefully picking and choosing.
"It’s very easy to get positive signs of radioactivity, but it’s very hard to have systematic drilling and sampling programs that prove something’s mineable. Those are the companies to look for," he says.
The experts’ advice reminds CompareShares of an old resource sector joke. How do you spoil a perfectly good exploration prospect? Drill a hole.
Tips
Jokes aside, what are Bartrop and Grigor tipping for 2008?
Both nominate the same company – Energy Metals. Says Bartrop: "Big deposit at Bigrylyi in the Northern Territory, big JV partner in Paladin, increasing their commitment." Says Grigor: "Good grade material, looks like one of the Australian sector’s live ones."
Energy Metals (ASX code: EME) has had a 52 week high of $8.29 and is currently trading around $3.40. Last week, the company informed the market that it has just completed further drilling exploration at Bigrylyi and looks to have the "upgraded resource expected to be available in late March."
While favouring US operators, Grigor also puts Aussie-listed Alliance Resources on his tip list. "They’ve got one of the best discoveries in Australia going at Four Mile in South Australia and they’re in it with the very established player, Heathgate [who operate one of Australia’s three current uranium mines]."
Alliance Resources (ASX code: AGS) has had a 52 week high of $2.88 and is currently trading around $1.40. Two weeks ago, Alliance advised the market on its exploration program at Four Mile with its CEO stating that the October and November drilling results were "outstanding".
Finally, while there are dozens of uranium explorers listed on the ASX, there are but two Australian-based uranium miners/ producers that are open to stockmarket investors: BHP Billiton, who operate the Olympic Dam mine in South Australia, and; Rio Tinto, who through its Energy Resources Australia subsidiary operate the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory. (The operator of the third existing mine, Beverley in South Australia, is Heathgate Resources who are an affiliate of the US-listed General Atomics.) Certainly, the value of the two big Aussie miners isn’t built on uranium alone, and especially not on ‘just kicking sandhills’.
Hi
To my understanding share splits and conversely, shares consolidations... mathematically (in theory)...shouldn't change the value of the shares.
For share splits 1 to 3...at the Friday close of $2.90...you will end up having 3 times EME shares at 97c each after they split.
Before split
1000 EME shares at $2.90= $2900
After Split
3000 EME shares at $0.97= $2910
No change
Except that it should improves LIQUIDITY.
EME is tightly held by its majority shareholders(JRL 41% Denison 11% Kale Capital 11% and Lindsay Dudfield 5%)...hence, there is not much shares circulating in the market...
by making the quantity 3 times more:
1. PSYCHOLOGICALLY It makes the shares look "cheaper"...97c instead of $2.90...5c movement become like 5% instead of only 1%....
2. More shares that can be sold/ bought...see the example above, if you need money or just simply want to manage your capital but still want to ride EME, you could sell 1000 and still have 2000 shares left.
To my understanding share splits and conversely, shares consolidations... mathematically (in theory)...shouldn't change the value of the shares.
For share splits 1 to 3...at the Friday close of $2.90...you will end up having 3 times EME shares at 97c each after they split.
Before split
1000 EME shares at $2.90= $2900
After Split
3000 EME shares at $0.97= $2910
No change
Except that it should improves LIQUIDITY.
EME is tightly held by its majority shareholders(JRL 41% Denison 11% Kale Capital 11% and Lindsay Dudfield 5%)...hence, there is not much shares circulating in the market...
by making the quantity 3 times more:
1. PSYCHOLOGICALLY It makes the shares look "cheaper"...97c instead of $2.90...5c movement become like 5% instead of only 1%....
2. More shares that can be sold/ bought...see the example above, if you need money or just simply want to manage your capital but still want to ride EME, you could sell 1000 and still have 2000 shares left.
EME is now $2.21....after the split, they will be worth $0.735-$0.74
The slide is not stock related....it is market related....FEAR....everyone is dumping shares at whatever price...it is unreasonably overdone
EME fundamentally still very good especially at this level. The Birqli asset is world class. When uranium spot price back to above $100....market will re rate all uranium stocks as it should not be affected by the sub prime issues.
Although the global credit crunch (despite lower interest rate in U.S) means borrowings become more expensive....and predator could not afford to pay more money (like before)...hence, the takeover premium would not be as much
I don't think we'll see EME in its high of $8 anymore....Considering EME's director Lindsay Dudfield bought more stakes with HIS own money at $5, I think the fair price should be $6 ($2 after split 3 ways)
The slide is not stock related....it is market related....FEAR....everyone is dumping shares at whatever price...it is unreasonably overdone
EME fundamentally still very good especially at this level. The Birqli asset is world class. When uranium spot price back to above $100....market will re rate all uranium stocks as it should not be affected by the sub prime issues.
Although the global credit crunch (despite lower interest rate in U.S) means borrowings become more expensive....and predator could not afford to pay more money (like before)...hence, the takeover premium would not be as much
I don't think we'll see EME in its high of $8 anymore....Considering EME's director Lindsay Dudfield bought more stakes with HIS own money at $5, I think the fair price should be $6 ($2 after split 3 ways)
EME are having an eastern states roadshow next week to present the recent resource upgrade at Bigrlyi.
Re-scoping the deposit will be the next step so hopefully after this we can get some detail on how the economics of the deposit are looking, all presuming PDN & SXX (minority partners) allow the release of the detail.
Re-scoping the deposit will be the next step so hopefully after this we can get some detail on how the economics of the deposit are looking, all presuming PDN & SXX (minority partners) allow the release of the detail.
Metallurgy not back yet so we will have to wait longer for the next scoping study. Drills should be booked for drilling around July.
Far East Capital uranium report is available on the EME website. Good reading as it confirms what we know, EME is a corporate play with very good assets.
Far East Capital uranium report is available on the EME website. Good reading as it confirms what we know, EME is a corporate play with very good assets.
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Great news today as shares went up 25% as a result. Could anyone speculate what the future of this share might be?
Happy to speculate.
Held this stock since IPO and very happy to date. I'm hoping for a cash takeover by one of the majority shareholders (don't want shares in a PDN or Denisons, give me the cash!).
The company has good management, a sizable resource with untested deposits and in a uranium friendly state, NT. The announcement late yesterday, http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080619/pdf/319qfhsfs92ypv.pdf regarding the next stage of development is a bit of a mystery. Next stage being?? Feasibility, bankable feasibility, or a friendly takeover / merger?
The only problem I see with this stock (the next stage maybe), which is why I want it taken over, has any Australian company tested the new mines policy to date? What happens IF EME are the first knocking on the door and the government rejects the mining application? Conversely, if it's granted then , but am I willing to take the risk... that's the dilemma going forward.
Conclusion, happy to continue the ride up and if we get to $2 the sell signals might start.
As most say on here, my opinion only please DYOR!
Held this stock since IPO and very happy to date. I'm hoping for a cash takeover by one of the majority shareholders (don't want shares in a PDN or Denisons, give me the cash!).
The company has good management, a sizable resource with untested deposits and in a uranium friendly state, NT. The announcement late yesterday, http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080619/pdf/319qfhsfs92ypv.pdf regarding the next stage of development is a bit of a mystery. Next stage being?? Feasibility, bankable feasibility, or a friendly takeover / merger?
The only problem I see with this stock (the next stage maybe), which is why I want it taken over, has any Australian company tested the new mines policy to date? What happens IF EME are the first knocking on the door and the government rejects the mining application
? Conversely, if it's granted then , but am I willing to take the risk... that's the dilemma going forward.Conclusion, happy to continue the ride up and if we get to $2 the sell signals might start.
As most say on here, my opinion only please DYOR!
